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Title Scenarios (2 to go) [merged]


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#1 nordschleife

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Posted 24 October 2010 - 22:50

Sticking with the assumption that only contenders will podium and that Button's toast:

(1)
Vettel Webber Hamilton Alonso
Vettel Webber Hamilton Alonso

final tally -
Vettel (5) 256
Webber (4) 256
Alonso (5) 255
Hamilton (3) 240

(2)
Vettel Webber Hamilton whoever Alonso
Vettel Webber Alonso Hamilton

final tally -
Vettel (5) 256 (more 3rds)
Alonso (5) 256
Webber (4) 256
Hamilton (3) 237

(3)
Vettel Webber Alonso
Vettel Webber Alonso

final tally -
Alonso (5) 261
Vettel (5) 256
Webber (4) 256

(4)
Webber Vettel Alonso
Webber Vettel Alonso

final tally -
Webber (6) 270
Alonso (5) 261
Vettel (3) 249

(5)
Vettel Webber Alonso
Webber Vettel Alonso

final tally:
Webber (5) 263
Alonso (5) 261
Vettel (4) 249

(6)
Hamilton Webber Vettel Alonso
Hamilton Webber Vettel Alonso

final tally:
Hamilton (5) 260
Webber (4) 256
Alonso (5) 255
Vettel (3) 236

(7)
Webber Alonso Vettel Hamilton
Webber Vettel Alonso Hamilton

final tally:
Webber (6) 270
Alonso (5) 264
Vettel (3) 239
Hamilton (3) 234


Edited by nordschleife, 25 October 2010 - 00:47.


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#2 Seanspeed

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Posted 24 October 2010 - 22:52

Keep going...........mostly scenarios where Vettel wins.........

#3 Italiano Tifoso

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Posted 24 October 2010 - 23:35

Alonso needs one 2nd and one 3rd to take the title regardless of other outcomes.

So if he can split the RB's in Brazil, the title is his to lose if Lewis can take 3rd in Abu Dhabi.

If Vettel can win in Brazil he will then have to hand the Abu Dhabi race win to Webber for him to win the title if Alonso is 3rd. Interesting to listen to that radio communication...

#4 Dunder

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Posted 24 October 2010 - 23:52

Alonso needs one 2nd and one 3rd to take the title regardless of other outcomes.


That is not correct.
Two wins for Webber and he wins regardless of other outcomes.

There are still many possibilties and permutations (three of the top 5 scored no points in Korea and that was the case too at Spa).
With that said, Alonso is now in a very strong position and two podiums will more than likely be enough.

Edited by Dunder, 24 October 2010 - 23:53.


#5 Zava

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Posted 24 October 2010 - 23:55

Alonso needs one 2nd and one 3rd to take the title regardless of other outcomes.

So if he can split the RB's in Brazil, the title is his to lose if Lewis can take 3rd in Abu Dhabi.

If Vettel can win in Brazil he will then have to hand the Abu Dhabi race win to Webber for him to win the title if Alonso is 3rd. Interesting to listen to that radio communication...

do you think there would be any need of radio communication? I'm damn sure Vettel (or if they get there in switched roles, Webber) knows what he has to do in that case - without any instructions.

#6 DiStefano

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Posted 25 October 2010 - 00:09

I think Brazil will be a Ferrari 1 - 2 and Alonso will go with a 21 point lead to Abu Dhabi.

#7 Melbourne Park

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Posted 25 October 2010 - 00:40

Engines are still a factor. Since Ferrari have taken a penalty already for a 9th engine for Massa, I presume that Alonso will use his 7th engine for the last two races. He has used his 8th engine for the last four races. It would be worn out now. Presuming of course the 7th engine - which only has done one race I think - is OK. Ferrari only used their 7th engines for one race. Bit strange that actually, but perhaps it was tactical, and directed for the end of the season, which is now.

Vettel now has blown his 8th engine, so he will have to use either an old engine, which will be down on power or reliability or both, or he'll take a new one and have to cop a 10 place grid penalty.

Webber's 8th engine is fresh as he only did a few laps, so he has no engine issues now. His 7th is also in good condition. He has no engine issues.

Hamilton also has no engine issues, same for Button.

So FA and SV have engine issues that could cost them important points. IMO Vettel is has more engine problems than does Alonso.


Edited by Melbourne Park, 25 October 2010 - 00:43.


#8 thelastspot

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Posted 25 October 2010 - 01:06

Engines are still a factor. Since Ferrari have taken a penalty already for a 9th engine for Massa, I presume that Alonso will use his 7th engine for the last two races. He has used his 8th engine for the last four races. It would be worn out now. Presuming of course the 7th engine - which only has done one race I think - is OK. Ferrari only used their 7th engines for one race. Bit strange that actually, but perhaps it was tactical, and directed for the end of the season, which is now.

Vettel now has blown his 8th engine, so he will have to use either an old engine, which will be down on power or reliability or both, or he'll take a new one and have to cop a 10 place grid penalty.

Webber's 8th engine is fresh as he only did a few laps, so he has no engine issues now. His 7th is also in good condition. He has no engine issues.

Hamilton also has no engine issues, same for Button.

So FA and SV have engine issues that could cost them important points. IMO Vettel is has more engine problems than does Alonso.



From what I read, Ferrari's seventh engine was part of the batch that they tried to "fix", i.e. upgrade, but it was flawed. If so, I think Alonso could have worse engine problems then Vettel.

On the other hand, it looked like Vettel's car may have failed at the point where some people suspect that Redbulls are flexing.

#9 Italiano Tifoso

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Posted 25 October 2010 - 01:32

do you think there would be any need of radio communication? I'm damn sure Vettel (or if they get there in switched roles, Webber) knows what he has to do in that case - without any instructions.


No i think the instructions will be given before the race, but the on track position change will still need to take place and not raise team order suspicion, not for fear of the FIA but rather to ensure they are not seen to be contradicting themselves around team orders publicly.

Either way we have an interesting end to the season with McLaren now backing Lewis (see whitmarshs comments), and Ferrari backing Alonso. Red Bull i feel need to do the same now, but will probably wait until Abu Dhabi.

I am in two minds about Brazil, i think we could see a real close race between the same top 4-5 drivers. (Lewis, Vettel, Webber, Alonso and even Kubica playing a role). Would love to see Massa win this one though to raise his spirits, he looked dejected on the podium yesterday.

#10 nordschleife

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Posted 25 October 2010 - 02:13

Would love to see Massa win this one though to raise his spirits, he looked dejected on the podium yesterday.


Most likely because he knows that if Alonso is still running in Brazil he cannot and will not finish in front of him. Sad, but true.

Edited by nordschleife, 25 October 2010 - 02:15.


#11 halifaxf1fan

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Posted 25 October 2010 - 03:03

Most likely because he knows that if Alonso is still running in Brazil he cannot and will not finish in front of him. Sad, but true.



And why should he? There is no room for sentiment here.

Edited by halifaxf1fan, 25 October 2010 - 03:04.


#12 Tenmantaylor

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Posted 01 November 2010 - 16:03

- If Webber wins the next two races he is guaranteed the title. Even if Alonso comes in 2nd both times Webber will score 270 points to Alonso's 267.

- If Alonso wins one of the next two races he only needs a 6th place finish in the other to guarantee the title, even if Webber has a 1st and 2nd.

- Hamilton can still take the title with 1 win if Alonso has a DNF and a 9th and Webber has a DNF and a 6th.

- And remember, at this point in 2007 Lewis only needed a 6th place in the last races to guarentee the title (based on Kimi's subsequent 2 wins, 1 aided by Massa). With this in mind it's still wide open.

:wave:

#13 Andrew Hope

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Posted 01 November 2010 - 16:05

I think it's worth putting a fiver on Button. You never know.

#14 AvantiFer

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Posted 01 November 2010 - 16:08

- And remember, at this point in 2007 Lewis only needed a 6th place in the last races to guarentee the title

This means consistency and pressure-dealing play an important paper here :up:

#15 undersquare

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Posted 01 November 2010 - 16:11

This means consistency and pressure-dealing play an important paper here :up:


Let's hope no more Fuji 07 then.

OK that's what I do hope for :lol:

#16 Henrytheeigth

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Posted 01 November 2010 - 16:12

Least noone's dry tyres can wear out this season lol, unlike Lewi's inters did..

#17 AvantiFer

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Posted 01 November 2010 - 16:13

Let's hope no more Fuji 07 then.

OK that's what I do hope for :lol:

Why polute this now? there's a thread for 2007

#18 Tenmantaylor

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Posted 01 November 2010 - 16:23

I think it's worth putting a fiver on Button. You never know.


- Button has to win the final two races to take the title and is reliant on the following:

- Alonso scores no better than DNF and a 6th.

AND

- Webber scores no better than a DNF (or 11th) and a 1st (or a 3rd and a 5th etc).

AND

Hamilton scores no better than a 4th and a 1st.

AND

- Vettel scores no better than a 6th and a 1st

Combine the odds of these happening simultaneously and I think it's a very poor bet ;) (I realise it's not possible to combine these results but if you add together the points from those result combinations).

It's exciting isn't it? :)

Edited by Tenmantaylor, 01 November 2010 - 16:33.


#19 undersquare

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Posted 01 November 2010 - 16:25

Least noone's dry tyres can wear out this season lol, unlike Lewi's inters did..


Nope, very true, I reckon it's more about engines this year.

Frankly I think Alonso will do it unless he has a mechanical dnf.

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#20 Mika Mika

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Posted 01 November 2010 - 16:29

Nope, very true, I reckon it's more about engines this year.

Frankly I think Alonso will do it unless he has a mechanical dnf.


I agree - It's Alonso's to loose now!

#21 Tenmantaylor

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Posted 01 November 2010 - 16:32

Frankly I think Alonso will do it unless he has a mechanical dnf.


- If Alonso has one DNF (or none score) he will have to win the other race and rely on Webber to finish no better than a 1st and a 4th.

I agree - It's Alonso's to loose now!


No, it's Alonso's to lose.  ;)

Edited by Tenmantaylor, 01 November 2010 - 16:33.


#22 plastik2k9

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Posted 01 November 2010 - 16:44

Knowing Red Bull's rollercoaster season, this title should fall right into Alonso's hands. 14 poles to just 7 wins, in 17 races for RBR. The odds suggest that something is going to go horribly wrong for at least one of the Red Bulls again in the final 2 races. I still can't believe what a crazy season its been.. in any other season, those pole positions would translate to a clear dominance of both Championships by them. And yet here we are, with a possibly epic climax with 2 races to go. We can't write off Vettel and the McLarens totally either.

#23 flyer121

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Posted 01 November 2010 - 16:50

Nope, very true, I reckon it's more about engines this year.

Frankly I think Alonso will do it unless he has a mechanical dnf.


Which is something we have seen happen when guys are pushed the way they have been in close WDC fights.
Also Alonso made some really rookie style errors without any pressure on him early in the season, With pressure on , who is to say he will not make a couple more.
Also remember that the Ferrari is atleast a couple of tenth down on RBR on the last two circuits (high - med DF config).
Plus there is engine situation to worry about for Alonso.

So I am a bit surprised at the way people are touting Alonso like he is a certainty. Agree he has the best chance but Webber can still take it away with relative ease.

For others - like Hami & Vettel - its difficult now.

#24 undersquare

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Posted 01 November 2010 - 16:59

- If Alonso has one DNF (or none score) he will have to win the other race and rely on Webber to finish no better than a 1st and a 4th.


Somehow I'm finding it hard to see Webber clinching it. If Fernando should come back to them, then Webber is only 10 points clear of Lewis and 14 from Sebi, who are both a lot more pressure-proof in my book. Even if he does a good Q I can easily imagine Webber having one of his hopeless first laps and then collecting someone.

#25 Tenmantaylor

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Posted 01 November 2010 - 17:06

- For Vettel to become the youngest ever champion he has to win both remaining races and rely on:

-Alonso scoring no better than a 2nd and a DNF (or a 4th and a 5th).

-Webber scores no better than a 1st and a 5th.

-Doesn't matter how Hamilton scores.

-Doesn't matter how Jenson scores.

Edited by Tenmantaylor, 01 November 2010 - 17:06.


#26 flyer121

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Posted 01 November 2010 - 17:11

- For Vettel to become the youngest ever champion he has to win both remaining races and rely on:

-Alonso scoring no better than a 2nd and a DNF (or a 4th and a 5th).

-Webber scores no better than a 1st and a 5th.

-Doesn't matter how Hamilton scores.

-Doesn't matter how Jenson scores.



Alonso needs to have a non points finish ( basically DNF ) & one more bad race to give Vettel a shot at the WDC.
Even then Vettel needs to lead Webber 1-2 , so that they will be level on points and it comes down to # of wins with Vettel winning.

It looks a longer shot than the Kimi scenario !
But stranger things have happened this season ..

#27 dau

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Posted 01 November 2010 - 17:23

- For Vettel to become the youngest ever champion he has to win both remaining races and rely on:

-Alonso scoring no better than a 2nd and a DNF (or a 4th and a 5th).


I might be wrong but i think he would be champion if he wins both races and:

-Alonso doesn't score better than 4th both times (VET 256, ALO 255) 

-Alonso is 3rd in one race and not better than 5th in the other (same points, but Vettel would have had more 4th place finishes) 

-Alonso is 2nd in one race and not better than 7th in the other. (VET 256, ALO 255)

Webber shouldn't matter. Even if he manages to finish 2nd behind Vettel both times, they would be tied on points. but Vettel would have more wins.

Edited by dau, 01 November 2010 - 17:27.


#28 Tenmantaylor

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Posted 01 November 2010 - 17:34

Should Jenson, who lies 5th in the standings, win both remaining races and Vettel, who lies 4th, comes 2nd in both remaining races, Hamilton, who lies third, comes third and so on and so on the order in which the drivers finish in the WDC table will remain almost completely unchanged thusly:

Fernando Alonso 231 251
Mark Webber 220 244
Lewis Hamilton 210 240
Sebastian Vettel 206 242
Jenson Button 189 239

Amazing.

Edited by Tenmantaylor, 01 November 2010 - 17:34.


#29 flyer121

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Posted 01 November 2010 - 17:46

Should Jenson, who lies 5th in the standings, win both remaining races and Vettel, who lies 4th, comes 2nd in both remaining races, Hamilton, who lies third, comes third and so on and so on the order in which the drivers finish in the WDC table will remain almost completely unchanged thusly:

Fernando Alonso 231 251
Mark Webber 220 244
Lewis Hamilton 210 240
Sebastian Vettel 206 242
Jenson Button 189 239

Amazing.


I am more amazed that you stumbled across such a scenario in the first place .. Genius !

And perhaps it will be the closest possible way for all top 5 to be at the end of the season.

Edited by flyer121, 01 November 2010 - 17:48.


#30 Oblomov

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Posted 01 November 2010 - 19:09

Another Scenario:

Alonso
Massa
Kubica



Alonso
Massa
Rosberg


And maybe Ferrari WCC. Hala!

#31 Tenmantaylor

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Posted 02 November 2010 - 12:44

Had Bernie pushed through his gold medals idea:

FA 5 Golds, 2 Silver, 2 Bronze
MW 4, 3, 2
LH 3, 4, 1
SV 3, 2, 3
JB 2, 3, 1

Exactly the same order as the current points system, which happens to be the same as the old points system.

The only difference with medals is that Button would be officially out of the title race already.

Vettel could still take it with 2 wins and no Silvers for Alonso.

Hamilton could still take the title with 2 wins and no more than 1 silver for Alonso.

#32 Smile17

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Posted 02 November 2010 - 20:25

Had Bernie pushed through his gold medals idea:

FA 5 Golds, 2 Silver, 2 Bronze
MW 4, 3, 2
LH 3, 4, 1
SV 3, 2, 3
JB 2, 3, 1


Thank God they didn't do that. It looks so cheap and weird. We are not at the olympic games...

#33 Mandzipop

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Posted 03 November 2010 - 19:25

http://www.marca.com...1288693841.html

A nice easy tool to do the calculations. :clap:

#34 PayasYouRace

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Posted 03 November 2010 - 19:42

(2)
Vettel Webber Hamilton whoever Alonso
Vettel Webber Alonso Hamilton

final tally -
Vettel (5) 256 (more 3rds)
Alonso (5) 256
Webber (4) 256
Hamilton (3) 237


I'd love to see that happen. Not only would it make it the closest 1st to 3rd margin in history, but can you imagine the fanboy arguments about who beat who? :lol: It'll make the 2007 2nd place arguments seem like nothing.