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[Makarias]

The standings after the South Korea GP:

Pos Name Tot Latest
1) skylark68 1596 80
2) dnbn 1570 79
3) mark f1 1566 89
4) arcsine 1564 89
5) Apex 1555 76
6) Costaz 1547 81
7) jonnyw01 1544 81
8) Anderis 1543 64
= kismet 1543 66
10) an1res 1540 60
= kNt 1540 74
12) gerry nassar 1539 88
13) Viceroy 1538 64
14) Crazy Canuck 1530 85
15) AcuraF1 1526 74
16) Grayson 1512 64
= LB 1512 75
= shays 1512 74
19) Wlleiotl 1511 89
20) fisichella_2001 1508 88
= Makarias 1508 80
22) scheivlak 1505 89
23) jokuvaan 1497 64
24) Brawn BGP 001 1495 89
25) paranoik0 1493 89
26) Ladaman 1485 89
27) Estwald 1483 64
28) D82 1475 86
= Slick 1475 64
30) August 1450 74
31) Kooper 1431 89
32) coyoteBR 1430 64
33) jeze 1423 89
34) KWSN - DSM 1294 61

Still fairly many getting such a high score as 89, this by missing points only from Kubica and Heidfeld. At the top skylark68 keeps a nice lead, but mark f1 and arcsine got a bit closer behind dnbn.

The entries

The Drivers' list

Driver Expect Surprise Beat
% % #
Heid 6800,0 150,0 34
Kubi 248,0 131,9 34
Webb 136,4 91,3 33
Petr 126,2 46,3 22
Suti 120,1 60,3 24
Butt 106,1 81,8 21
Vett 99,5 72,5 18
Alon 96,2 74,3 12
Rosb 91,7 70,5 12
Hami 88,3 67,5 6
Barr 83,7 46,5 8
Liuz 80,9 20,8 12
Mass 70,1 49,5 0
Koba 67,6 28,4 7
Hülk 37,1 19,4 2
Schu 37,1 22,8 0
Buem 28,9 6,7 2
Algu 27,1 11,1 2
dlRo 14,1 5,6 1

With Vettel and Rosberg retiring, no new drivers made their 100% expectation mark this round. Alonso now has it within reach for next race, while Hamilton will have to score points in both remaining races to make it.

EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2010 this is 34.


Guesses on P1-P5:

Alonso Hamilton Massa Schumacher Kubica
jeze 310 Apex 310 KWSN - DSM 288 coyoteBR 289 * Potential 174
an1res 290 jeze 295 shays 282 KWSN - DSM 286 * Forecast 139
* Potential 281 Costaz 286 jeze 267 Estwald 230 * Current 124
Costaz 280 August 283 Slick 260 Kooper 226 coyoteBR 93
Brawn BGP 001 278 Kooper 274 coyoteBR 241 dnbn 205 an1res 80
Makarias 276 Slick 265 Brawn BGP 001 234 Ladaman 205 arcsine 77
KWSN - DSM 271 Makarias 264 Makarias 221 LB 200 Anderis 72
August 270 paranoik0 262 an1res 220 scheivlak 196 kNt 72
Kooper 264 * Potential 260 kNt 215 gerry nassar 193 skylark68 72
Ladaman 264 LB 260 mark f1 214 paranoik0 192 Apex 65
Wlleiotl 260 Ladaman 256 August 211 August 191 jokuvaan 61
D82 259 shays 255 Kooper 210 D82 187 Crazy Canuck 60
mark f1 259 scheivlak 254 LB 210 Makarias 182 fisichella_2001 60
* Forecast 258 kNt 249 kismet 201 Crazy Canuck 180 jeze 55
scheivlak 253 skylark68 249 Crazy Canuck 200 shays 180 Kooper 52
LB 250 D82 240 Grayson 199 jonnyw01 170 Ladaman 52
paranoik0 249 * Forecast 235 fisichella_2001 198 Wlleiotl 170 Grayson 51
arcsine 246 dnbn 233 skylark68 195 Viceroy 167 KWSN - DSM 47
Crazy Canuck 240 mark f1 232 Viceroy 194 mark f1 162 mark f1 46
jonnyw01 239 Grayson 230 * Potential 193 arcsine 160 Viceroy 46
AcuraF1 238 Estwald 226 paranoik0 193 Grayson 160 D82 45
fisichella_2001 236 coyoteBR 225 arcsine 191 Brawn BGP 001 156 kismet 45
dnbn 233 gerry nassar 225 Estwald 190 Costaz 156 Slick 45
shays 232 arcsine 222 Wlleiotl 190 jeze 154 Brawn BGP 001 43
* Current 231 jokuvaan 221 AcuraF1 186 fisichella_2001 151 dnbn 43
Apex 230 Wlleiotl 220 jonnyw01 183 AcuraF1 150 AcuraF1 42
gerry nassar 230 Brawn BGP 001 219 gerry nassar 182 jokuvaan 150 Estwald 42
kismet 227 Anderis 216 Costaz 181 kNt 150 gerry nassar 42
coyoteBR 224 jonnyw01 214 Ladaman 180 skylark68 150 Costaz 41
kNt 222 Crazy Canuck 210 scheivlak 178 Slick 146 paranoik0 41
skylark68 222 * Current 210 Anderis 177 kismet 144 jonnyw01 40
Viceroy 214 fisichella_2001 209 dnbn 176 an1res 140 shays 40
Grayson 197 Viceroy 202 * Forecast 160 Anderis 139 LB 35
Estwald 195 AcuraF1 198 Apex 160 Apex 130 scheivlak 32
Slick 184 KWSN - DSM 196 D82 156 * Potential 116 Wlleiotl 30
Anderis 169 kismet 192 jokuvaan 156 * Forecast 74 Makarias 29
jokuvaan 156 an1res 190 * Current 143 * Current 66 August 4

Alonso and Hamilton beat a few more names each, Massa may end up beating a few in the end too.

Guesses on P6-P10:

Liuzzi Barrichello Kobayashi Webber Hülkenberg
jokuvaan 100 Crazy Canuck 100 kNt 108 * Potential 270 Anderis 92
* Potential 71 * Potential 97 * Potential 81 * Forecast 246 D82 87
fisichella_2001 50 Anderis 86 Estwald 72 an1res 240 AcuraF1 76
kismet 46 skylark68 80 fisichella_2001 71 * Current 220 gerry nassar 75
arcsine 44 jokuvaan 75 gerry nassar 70 kismet 201 Brawn BGP 001 70
Grayson 41 paranoik0 73 scheivlak 67 dnbn 187 jeze 70
Slick 37 Slick 72 Ladaman 62 kNt 184 fisichella_2001 69
jeze 36 Kooper 71 Viceroy 61 skylark68 184 * Potential 68
paranoik0 36 Ladaman 71 jokuvaan 60 Costaz 183 paranoik0 68
an1res 30 Apex 70 Grayson 55 Anderis 182 Slick 66
Estwald 30 Grayson 70 D82 54 LB 180 arcsine 60
Viceroy 29 Wlleiotl 70 Anderis 51 arcsine 176 Wlleiotl 60
Kooper 27 kismet 67 Costaz 51 mark f1 176 coyoteBR 58
Ladaman 27 fisichella_2001 66 jonnyw01 50 AcuraF1 172 scheivlak 54
Brawn BGP 001 25 AcuraF1 65 LB 50 jonnyw01 172 Viceroy 52
Crazy Canuck 25 Brawn BGP 001 63 Wlleiotl 50 August 171 kismet 51
gerry nassar 25 gerry nassar 63 arcsine 49 Crazy Canuck 170 Apex 50
mark f1 25 Costaz 56 Kooper 47 Viceroy 167 Crazy Canuck 50
Wlleiotl 25 D82 55 skylark68 44 jokuvaan 166 jokuvaan 50
scheivlak 24 Estwald 55 mark f1 43 Makarias 166 Grayson 45
* Forecast 23 scheivlak 55 AcuraF1 42 Estwald 165 Estwald 43
Anderis 22 mark f1 53 Slick 36 gerry nassar 165 Kooper 39
kNt 22 * Forecast 53 Brawn BGP 001 35 Grayson 165 Ladaman 39
skylark68 22 arcsine 52 paranoik0 35 shays 160 mark f1 37
* Current 21 dnbn 52 * Forecast 35 Brawn BGP 001 156 KWSN - DSM 36
AcuraF1 18 jonnyw01 50 jeze 34 paranoik0 155 skylark68 34
D82 18 jeze 48 KWSN - DSM 33 Slick 154 Makarias 33
Makarias 18 Viceroy 48 August 32 Apex 150 Costaz 30
dnbn 15 * Current 47 Makarias 32 Wlleiotl 150 shays 28
Costaz 12 kNt 40 * Current 31 D82 147 dnbn 27
shays 12 Makarias 37 kismet 30 fisichella_2001 142 LB 26
Apex 11 shays 35 shays 30 scheivlak 139 jonnyw01 25
coyoteBR 10 an1res 30 coyoteBR 27 Kooper 131 kNt 24
KWSN - DSM 7 LB 30 Apex 22 Ladaman 130 * Forecast 20
August 6 August 25 dnbn 21 jeze 123 * Current 18
LB 5 coyoteBR 14 Crazy Canuck 20 KWSN - DSM 98 August 14
jonnyw01 3 KWSN - DSM 13 an1res 15 coyoteBR 77 an1res 10

Webber replaces Heidfeld in this column, just to show that he still needs another 21 points to become a 100% surprise.

The PTPC forecast

Name Forecast
skylark68 1676,8 34,6
Costaz 1673,1 29,1
mark f1 1671,9 45,6
dnbn 1660,2 21,2
an1res 1657,1 14,2
Apex 1653,5 8,7
arcsine 1648,1 30,2
jonnyw01 1634,4 20,1
LB 1628,4 22,3
scheivlak 1628,4 41,1
kismet 1623,8 1,9
Wlleiotl 1615,8 34,5
Makarias 1610,9 37,4
Anderis 1604,5 19,3
Viceroy 1603,4 17,0
gerry nassar 1601,4 30,7
paranoik0 1597,1 41,7
kNt 1596,8 32,8
Brawn BGP 001 1596,0 34,1
shays 1591,6 9,7
Crazy Canuck 1590,1 19,6
jokuvaan 1586,9 6,7
Grayson 1585,9 29,4
D82 1582,0 42,2
Ladaman 1581,2 50,9
AcuraF1 1576,9 25,2
August 1568,1 15,5
Slick 1565,3 24,6
fisichella_2001 1561,1 26,1
Estwald 1553,7 22,1
Kooper 1527,2 50,9
jeze 1511,9 45,3
coyoteBR 1475,7 16,2
KWSN - DSM 1388,5 17,4

Positive forecast changes thanks to good results for Schumacher, Massa and Liuzzi etc. The title battle still appears to be wide open!