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Will Alonso still be leading the WDC by Monday?


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#1 Tstag

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Posted 05 November 2010 - 21:12

My race result prediction is:

1 Webber
2 Vettle
3 Hamilton
4 Alonso
5 Button

Based on Red Bull having the fastest car and not doing anything stupid. Also on the basis that they have screwed up so much recently that I just doubt they will screw up this one too (law of averages). Hamilton to get third by qualifying forth but by also having a lot of straight line speed to beat Alonso down to turn 1. He's also agressive by nature and needs a result, which could also mean an accident, but I'm going with 3rd.

Of course I'm just guessing but it's fun.

If there are any accidents or engine failures I predict mechanical probs for Ferrari due to running out of engines and accidents for Webber, Vettle or Hamilton on the basis that they all need the points.

Actually on second thoughts Petrov win. :rotfl:

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#2 PompousJester

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Posted 05 November 2010 - 21:14

you ruled out kubica from top 5 :o

#3 Sausage

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Posted 05 November 2010 - 21:15

Who knows. I personaly doubt it.

#4 primer

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Posted 05 November 2010 - 21:21

It would have to be an incident filled race for Alonso to be still leading the WDC on Monday.

#5 4L3X

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Posted 05 November 2010 - 21:29

You forgot Massa. If there is a race where he can be a factor in the dry, this is it. I predict Massa 3rd (qualy and or start), then Hamilton and Alonso. If it rains, anything goes.

#6 P123

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Posted 05 November 2010 - 21:52

It would have to be an incident filled race for Alonso to be still leading the WDC on Monday.


It would have to be an incident filled race for him not to be still leading. At the moment he looks on course for 3rd behind the two Red Bulls.

#7 Watkins74

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Posted 05 November 2010 - 22:08

It would have to be an incident filled race for him not to be still leading. At the moment he looks on course for 3rd behind the two Red Bulls.

I don't think it is outside the realm of possiblity that Alonso finishes 4th this weekend.

If Alonso is in front of Webber/Hamilton/Vettel they are going to lean on him. Does Alonso really want to shut the door and take a chance on getting taken out?



#8 redbarron

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Posted 05 November 2010 - 22:09

Im assume the above posts are because your looking at FP1 and FP2. I'm not sure why your discounting Alonso fighting with the Red Bulls. If form from the past races is any indication, Alonso will still be ahead. Ferrari looked nowhere in Korea on the Friday but almost got pole!

#9 F.M.

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Posted 05 November 2010 - 22:23

I hope not is all I can say :)

But the Ferrari looks bloody quick, especially on long runs

Edited by F.M., 05 November 2010 - 22:23.


#10 Don_Humpador

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Posted 05 November 2010 - 22:24

No.

#11 antifozy

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Posted 05 November 2010 - 22:27

Looking at the consistency, form and luck Alonso has been having in the last few races, I would give him an 80+% chance of leading in the championship come Monday. I quite like his approach in the last few races, if he maintains that, he has a good chance of coming 3rd at least.


#12 mcman

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Posted 05 November 2010 - 22:30

Absolutely. He will be leading the championship on Monday, November 15th as well.

#13 DILLIGAF

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Posted 05 November 2010 - 22:36

Yes, as long as he has no mechanical issues.

#14 JustinCider

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Posted 05 November 2010 - 22:39

Yes, but only just. I think the last race will be winner takes all (Webber, Vettel and Alonso).

I hope Webber takes the utlimate prize though.

#15 as65p

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Posted 05 November 2010 - 22:41

I don't think it is outside the realm of possiblity that Alonso finishes 4th this weekend.

If Alonso is in front of Webber/Hamilton/Vettel they are going to lean on him. Does Alonso really want to shut the door and take a chance on getting taken out?


I see it quite differently. IF he's in front of any of those, and the car has half-decent speed, there's very good chance he'll stay there. Defense is one of his biggest strengths, as I see it.

I'm actually more worried for him how to get there, i.e. qualify on the first two rows, then survive the start and first lap without any tangles. If he manages that, I reckon all will be fine. Well, bare the widely anticipated engine failure, of course.  ;)

#16 ForzaGTR

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Posted 05 November 2010 - 22:45

the first lap could be an epic. Personally i'm expecting some drama for at least one of the front runners!

Edited by Olly F1, 05 November 2010 - 22:53.


#17 AlanWake

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Posted 05 November 2010 - 22:47

the first lap could be an epic. Personally i'm expecting same drama for at least one of the front runners!


Especially if it rains...

#18 jjcale

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Posted 05 November 2010 - 22:50

Yes, but only just. I think the last race will be winner takes all (Webber, Vettel and Alonso).

I hope Webber takes the utlimate prize though.


The last race going to be epic ... winner takes all, most likely.

#19 juandiego

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Posted 05 November 2010 - 22:50

the first lap could be an epic. Personally i'm expecting same drama for at least one of the front runners!

That's what worries me the most.
Everyone need to get in front as soon as possible and hardly this is not going to bring some shunt.

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#20 Johnrambo

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Posted 05 November 2010 - 22:53

Alonso has the best car so I would be shocked if he didn't.

#21 JustinCider

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Posted 05 November 2010 - 22:54

I see it quite differently. IF he's in front of any of those, and the car has half-decent speed, there's very good chance he'll stay there. Defense is one of his biggest strengths, as I see it.

I'm actually more worried for him how to get there, i.e. qualify on the first two rows, then survive the start and first lap without any tangles. If he manages that, I reckon all will be fine. Well, bare the widely anticipated engine failure, of course.;)


Maybe. If Alonso escapes the first few laps without incident and it sat in P3 (where i expect him to be after qualifying) then i fully expect him to go into cruise and collect mode. Redbull's blatant favouritism towards Vettel will end up handing the WDC on a plate to Alonso one race later. He knows that, Ferrari know that, so i don't think he'll take any risks.

Edited by JustinCider, 05 November 2010 - 22:54.


#22 ForzaGTR

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Posted 05 November 2010 - 22:54

Alonso has the best car so I would be shocked if he didn't.


Now you know that is not true.

#23 VicR

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Posted 05 November 2010 - 23:00

Yes. Alonso has already won the WDC, sadly. Luckiest driver ever.

Can't see him losing it. He will most likely be safe with a 3rd and a 4th place in the last two races. 258 points will be enough. It would force Webber to win one and podium one and Lewis to win one and score a 2nd place. That will not happen.

Alonso will win if he keeps the car running and on the road.

DAMN!

#24 SuRGe

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Posted 05 November 2010 - 23:00

Now you know that is not true.



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#25 SuRGe

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Posted 05 November 2010 - 23:01

Yes. Alonso has already won the WDC, sadly. Luckiest driver ever.

Can't see him losing it. He will most likely be safe with a 3rd and a 4th place in the last two races. 258 points will be enough. It would force Webber to win one and podium one and Lewis to win one and score a 2nd place. That will not happen.

Alonso will win if he keeps the car running and on the road.

DAMN!


Take it easy... you'll get an ulcer... :cool:

#26 VicR

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Posted 05 November 2010 - 23:05

Take it easy... you'll get an ulcer... :cool:


An ulcer is the least of my problems. An aneurysm, now we're talking...

#27 Watkins74

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Posted 05 November 2010 - 23:14

I see it quite differently. IF he's in front of any of those, and the car has half-decent speed, there's very good chance he'll stay there. Defense is one of his biggest strengths, as I see it.

I'm actually more worried for him how to get there, i.e. qualify on the first two rows, then survive the start and first lap without any tangles. If he manages that, I reckon all will be fine. Well, bare the widely anticipated engine failure, of course. ;)

They have nothing to lose, Alonso has everything to lose. Why follow him and not make a "dive bomb" move.



#28 Watkins74

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Posted 05 November 2010 - 23:15

An ulcer is the least of my problems. An aneurysm, now we're talking...

:rotfl:


#29 Seanspeed

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Posted 05 November 2010 - 23:25

They have nothing to lose, Alonso has everything to lose. Why follow him and not make a "dive bomb" move.

Vettel and Webber are still in the title fight and certainly have something to lose. If Vettel crashes into Alonso, it hands Webber the WDC on a plate. If Webber crashes into Alonso, it hands Vettel the WDC lead. Neither driver wants anything that will help their teammate.

#30 King Six

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Posted 05 November 2010 - 23:31

Also on the basis that they have screwed up so much recently that I just doubt they will screw up this one too (law of averages).

This is what I've been saying for most of the races too, it's amazing how wrong we have been about it

#31 as65p

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Posted 05 November 2010 - 23:45

Yes. Alonso has already won the WDC, sadly. Luckiest driver ever.

Can't see him losing it. He will most likely be safe with a 3rd and a 4th place in the last two races. 258 points will be enough. It would force Webber to win one and podium one and Lewis to win one and score a 2nd place. That will not happen.

Alonso will win if he keeps the car running and on the road.

DAMN!


Uhhh, quite desperate jinxing attempt! Once again, you're trying too hard! :wave:  ;)

#32 chrisblades85

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Posted 05 November 2010 - 23:49

I'll know Sunday evening.

#33 flyingman

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Posted 05 November 2010 - 23:59

I think so. Hamilton has to be more agressive than ever if he wants to stay in the fight, and the red bulls are damn quick, so a 4th would not be unlikely, at least on the paper, but the past races have taught us that at least one of the top 4 has some issue (mechanical or human) and score few points. If the driver having that issue is no Fernando himself (and after he's achieved a superb comeback, i don't think he is gonna take any risks right now), he is the man to be leading on monday.

Anyway, I expect the WDC to be decided on Abu Dhabi, and probably with 4 possible winners there...

Edited by flyingman, 06 November 2010 - 00:00.


#34 solochamp07

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Posted 06 November 2010 - 00:06

My race result prediction is:

1 Webber
2 Vettle
3 Hamilton
4 Alonso
5 Button

Based on Red Bull having the fastest car and not doing anything stupid. Also on the basis that they have screwed up so much recently that I just doubt they will screw up this one too (law of averages). Hamilton to get third by qualifying forth but by also having a lot of straight line speed to beat Alonso down to turn 1. He's also agressive by nature and needs a result, which could also mean an accident, but I'm going with 3rd.

Of course I'm just guessing but it's fun.

If there are any accidents or engine failures I predict mechanical probs for Ferrari due to running out of engines and accidents for Webber, Vettle or Hamilton on the basis that they all need the points.

Actually on second thoughts Petrov win. :rotfl:


Who's Vettle?

Re the thread title, yes, Alonso is sitting pretty with a tail gunner who goes like stink at this circuit. Look for Massa to mix it up with the Red Bulls and Maccas on Sunday, which could be an enormous help to Fred.



#35 as65p

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Posted 06 November 2010 - 00:12

Maybe. If Alonso escapes the first few laps without incident and it sat in P3 (where i expect him to be after qualifying) then i fully expect him to go into cruise and collect mode. Redbull's blatant favouritism towards Vettel will end up handing the WDC on a plate to Alonso one race later. He knows that, Ferrari know that, so i don't think he'll take any risks.


Well, nobody knows what lies ahead, but maintaining third behind superior cars wouldn't exactly be "cruise and collect", it would be taking the max out of the equipment. For "cruise and collect", look no further than McLarens and Hamiltons attempt in Brazil '08... and how close that came to total desaster.


#36 Captain Tightpants

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Posted 06 November 2010 - 00:31

No driver has won a race while leading the World Championship this season.

I see no reason why that should suddenly change now.

#37 Longtimefan

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Posted 06 November 2010 - 00:32

Yes :(

But I hope not...


#38 Fontainebleau

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Posted 06 November 2010 - 01:05

He will as long as he finishes third or higher. Otherwise it will depend on what others do.

Sorry, I do not want to sound harsh, but what is the real question in this thread?

#39 Kimiraikkonen

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Posted 06 November 2010 - 01:10

the first lap could be an epic. Personally i'm expecting some drama for at least one of the front runners!



Alonso and Hamilton in same row..... would be exciting


Nando has fear.... and if Hamilton is besides him. more..!!

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#40 Captain Tightpants

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Posted 06 November 2010 - 01:14

the first lap could be an epic. Personally i'm expecting some drama for at least one of the front runners!

The Petrov Effect: for every action, there is an equal and opposite Russian.

#41 RME

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Posted 06 November 2010 - 02:11

Alonso is fast around here.

he will be 3rd or 2nd.

#42 Dunder

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Posted 06 November 2010 - 02:19

The last race going to be epic ... winner takes all, most likely.


It is one of the few times I actually wish there was a longer break between races. One week of sweaty palms isn't enough.


#43 Nitropower

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Posted 06 November 2010 - 02:35

One weak stop - is it enough for the engine to rest?

If it rains tomorrow and qualifying is not delayed the final result won't be so easily predictable. Wait and see.

#44 Bruce

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Posted 06 November 2010 - 02:41

No driver has won a race while leading the World Championship this season.

I see no reason why that should suddenly change now.


Why on earth not?

Now - I don't actually expect Alonso to win on Sunday because the Red Bull's once again look to be in a league of their own - but then, I would have said the same prior to the Korean GP.

No driver had won 7 WDCs before Schumacher, but - dislike him though I did - I wasn't betting against him in 2004 based upon that....

The past does not = the future.


#45 Menace

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Posted 06 November 2010 - 02:54

He very well could, but not by much. I don't see Alonso getting better then 3'rd, unless the Red Bulls once again have mechanical problems, or a brain fade. :cat:

#46 aditya-now

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Posted 06 November 2010 - 04:08

You forgot Massa. If there is a race where he can be a factor in the dry, this is it. I predict Massa 3rd (qualy and or start), then Hamilton and Alonso. If it rains, anything goes.


You forgot Massa and Hamilton and the first laps. They will be inevitably be drawn to each other, especially on this track. Either DNF for both of them or falling back.

1.Vettel
2.Webber
3.Alonso
4.Button
5.Kubica
6.Hamilton
7.Massa
8.Rosberg
9.Heidfeld
10.Schumacher

Alonso will be still leading the WDC on Monday.


#47 Kelateboy

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Posted 06 November 2010 - 04:21

Brazil will be all about Alonso vs the 2 RBRs. I don't think McLaren has the pace to contend here and the best Lewis could do is 4th in Q and race.

RBR should rule in Q and lock in the front row. But the start to the race and RBR's reliability will decide the winner.

#48 Captain Tightpants

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Posted 06 November 2010 - 05:19

Brazil will be all about Alonso vs the 2 RBRs. I don't think McLaren has the pace to contend here and the best Lewis could do is 4th in Q and race.

The past few races have been Alonso vs. Red Bull - Korea, Japan, Singapore. Aside from Button leading briefly in Japan, the McLarens were never really a factor in any of those races.

The only real variable in qualifying is the weather.

Edited by Captain Tightpants, 06 November 2010 - 05:20.


#49 Bren

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Posted 06 November 2010 - 05:30

I thínk that different cars being faster in different sectors will be a cause for entertainment.
we all know that hamilton can fight like a tiger and that straight line speed of his could make lap 2 turn 1 very interesting.
Vettel and Webber will have the front row and try and squeeze each other.
Massa 'should' be amazing here and will win if the red bulls finish in a bad position.

Alonso will go out and do his job, all goes to plan he should still be leading but with Hamilton making a big points gain.



#50 kosmos

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Posted 06 November 2010 - 05:40

I think the fight will continue until the last race but there is a chance that he can win the title here. It will be beautiful, 3 titles won in Brazil but we will see, anything can happen, from win to DNF.