Jump to content


Photo

Abu Dhabi Title Permutations [merged]


  • Please log in to reply
40 replies to this topic

#1 Frank Tuesday

Frank Tuesday
  • Member

  • 887 posts
  • Joined: August 01

Posted 08 November 2010 - 04:46

Webber cannot win championship if P6 or lower.
Vettel cannot win championship if P3 or lower.
Hamilton cannot win championship if P2 or lower.

Alonso v. Webber
If: Alonso P1 or P2: Alonso takes the title on points
Alonso P3, P4 or P5: Webber needs to win
Alonso P6, Webber needs P2
Alonso P7 or P8: Webber needs P3
Alonso P9: Webber P4
Alonso P10 or no points: Webber P5

Alonso v. Vettel
If: Alonso P1, P2, P3 or P4, beats Vettel on points
Alonso P5, P6, P7, P8 : Vettel needs to win
Alonso P9, P10: Vettel needs 2nd

Webber v. Vettel
If: Vettel P1: Webber cannot win
Vettel P2: Webber P4 or better

Hamilton:
Must win, Alonso 11th or worse, Webber 6th or worse, and Vettel 3rd or worse.

Here is an excel spreadsheet if you want to play around with the possibilities. Just fill in the finishing positions and it will calculate points and number of wins, seconds, etc. for any countbacks. You can what would have happened if Alonso and Massa didn't swap, or if Vettel and Webber did.

Edited by Frank Tuesday, 08 November 2010 - 04:54.


Advertisement

#2 cheapracer

cheapracer
  • Member

  • 10,388 posts
  • Joined: May 07

Posted 08 November 2010 - 04:50

Wow, awesome thanks for that.

Oh but I have to drink some scotch and cokes, chase up a few woman, eat some rich chocolate cake and write a few meaningless posts this week so I may just wait for the race instead,

#3 RiDE

RiDE
  • Member

  • 1,026 posts
  • Joined: May 04

Posted 08 November 2010 - 05:15

Good stuff thanks :up:

#4 Sof1

Sof1
  • Member

  • 596 posts
  • Joined: May 10

Posted 08 November 2010 - 09:31

I will simplify this.

Alonso will win since those 2 RB idiots will not help each other if one of them is drowning and going to die!

#5 notguilty56

notguilty56
  • Member

  • 1,732 posts
  • Joined: May 09

Posted 09 November 2010 - 08:37

Great job, Frank. Even The Guardian is using it. :up: :up:

http://www.guardian....vettel-hamilton

#6 2ms

2ms
  • Member

  • 2,212 posts
  • Joined: November 09

Posted 09 November 2010 - 09:49

It's not too great of a situation for Webber that both he and Vettel need to have immaculate races and sweep 1-2 on a track that they may not even have the better car on.

Let's say it's getting late in the race and Webber is #1 but Alonso is in 2. Is he just screwed with nothing in his power to change things? Or is there anything he can do to assist others in catching up and possibly overtaking Alonso? Has anything like this happened in the past and not been considered against the rules?

#7 Tenmantaylor

Tenmantaylor
  • Member

  • 8,305 posts
  • Joined: July 01

Posted 09 November 2010 - 09:51

Kudos to Frank :up: Royalties? :lol:

#8 Nonesuch

Nonesuch
  • Member

  • 2,026 posts
  • Joined: October 08

Posted 09 November 2010 - 09:52

Thanks for that, I've tried to rearrange some of those calculations and list them per driver.

If I've miscalculated something, please feel free to point that out!

Alonso
P1 or P2.
P3: Webber P2 or lower.
P4: Webber P2 or lower.
P5: Webber P2 or lower (equal points on P2, wins on race wins). Vettel P2 or lower (equal points on P1, loses due to fourth places).
P6: Webber P3 or lower. Vettel P2 or lower.
P7: Webber P4 or lower. Vettel P2 or lower.
P8: Webber P4 or lower (equal points on P4, wins on race wins). Vettel P2 or lower.
P9: Webber P5 or lower (equal points on P5, wins on race wins). Vettel P3 or lower.
P10: Webber P6 or lower. Vettel P3 or lower.
No score: Webber P6 or lower (equal points on P6, wins on race wins). Vettel P3 or lower (equal points on P3, wins on race wins). Hamilton P2 or lower.

Webber
P1: Alonso P3 or lower.
P2: Alonso P6 or lower. Vettel P2 or lower (equal on P1, Vettel wins on race wins).
P3: Alonso P7 or lower. Vettel P2 or lower.
P4: Alonso P9 or lower. Vettel P2 or lower.
P5: Alonso P10 or lower. Vettel P3 or lower.
P6: Webber cannot outscore Alonso if he finishes sixth or lower.

Vettel
P1: Alonso P5 or lower (equal points on P5, wins on fourth places).
P2: Alonso P9 or lower. Webber P5 or lower.
P3: Vettel cannot outscore Alonso if he finishes third or lower (equal on P3, but loses on to race wins).

Hamilton
P1: Alonso P11 or lower. Webber P6 or lower. Vettel P3 or lower.
P2: Hamilton cannot outscore Alonso if he finishes second or lower.

Edited by Nonesuch, 09 November 2010 - 09:53.


#9 bauss

bauss
  • Member

  • 4,975 posts
  • Joined: June 10

Posted 09 November 2010 - 10:25

a funny scenario just popped in my head....

what if running order 5 laps to go at A.Daby was Vettel, Webber, Hamilton, Massa, Alonso....

Vettel knowing if the order finishes that way he is champion, but knowing if Massa n Alonso swap....and he doesnt swap with Webber, Alonso is champion.

Ferrari know once they swap, Vettel is gonna be pressured one way or another to swap...so they plan to leave it as late as possible, but then give radio messages like they are not going to swap.

What will Vettel do?

Hope I got the scenario maths right...

#10 ManiaMuse

ManiaMuse
  • Member

  • 246 posts
  • Joined: October 10

Posted 09 November 2010 - 10:54

a funny scenario just popped in my head....

what if running order 5 laps to go at A.Daby was Vettel, Webber, Hamilton, Massa, Alonso....

Vettel knowing if the order finishes that way he is champion, but knowing if Massa n Alonso swap....and he doesnt swap with Webber, Alonso is champion.

Ferrari know once they swap, Vettel is gonna be pressured one way or another to swap...so they plan to leave it as late as possible, but then give radio messages like they are not going to swap.

What will Vettel do?

Hope I got the scenario maths right...

All Ferrari need to do in that situation is swap Massa and Alonso on the last lap, after Vettel has crossed the line.

If the double swap (Ferrari followed by RBR) were to happen, then the FIA would certainly face renewed pressure to clarify the team orders rules. And the bookies will not be pleased one bit either.

#11 bauss

bauss
  • Member

  • 4,975 posts
  • Joined: June 10

Posted 09 November 2010 - 11:07

All Ferrari need to do in that situation is swap Massa and Alonso on the last lap, after Vettel has crossed the line.

If the double swap (Ferrari followed by RBR) were to happen, then the FIA would certainly face renewed pressure to clarify the team orders rules. And the bookies will not be pleased one bit either.


yea the Ferrari swap is obvious... the question is what would Vettel do.... will he carry on hoping against hope that the inevitable Ferrari swap wont happen and he will be crowned champion? or will he do the safe thing for the team and let Webber thru...

how would C. Horner and co handle such a situation :lol: ....its a ridiculous, yet entirely plausible scenario.
All that hardwork over the year coming down to if Vettel is feeling charitable enough or not :lol:

#12 SuRGe

SuRGe
  • Member

  • 95 posts
  • Joined: October 08

Posted 09 November 2010 - 12:22

yea the Ferrari swap is obvious... the question is what would Vettel do.... will he carry on hoping against hope that the inevitable Ferrari swap wont happen and he will be crowned champion? or will he do the safe thing for the team and let Webber thru...

how would C. Horner and co handle such a situation :lol: ....its a ridiculous, yet entirely plausible scenario.
All that hardwork over the year coming down to if Vettel is feeling charitable enough or not :lol:


Imagine that Vettel feels charitable and swaps, crosses the line and Alonso's engine goes kaboom... The face of the Fingaboy would be awesome :clap: :rotfl: :drunk:

#13 Atreiu

Atreiu
  • Member

  • 9,842 posts
  • Joined: May 07

Posted 09 November 2010 - 12:34

It's not too great of a situation for Webber that both he and Vettel need to have immaculate races and sweep 1-2 on a track that they may not even have the better car on.

Let's say it's getting late in the race and Webber is #1 but Alonso is in 2. Is he just screwed with nothing in his power to change things? Or is there anything he can do to assist others in catching up and possibly overtaking Alonso? Has anything like this happened in the past and not been considered against the rules?


The RB6 will be fine, Abu Dhabi is like Singapore but without the bumps. What should worry Vettel and Webber the most, IMO, is that there seems to be very little that Hamilton and Button can do. The Red Bull pair is probably on their knees praying for McLaren's updates and whatever to hit the groud running like hell for once.

#14 Atreiu

Atreiu
  • Member

  • 9,842 posts
  • Joined: May 07

Posted 09 November 2010 - 12:36

You guys gotta be crazy to think Massa will ever lead Alonso with a few laps to go.

#15 smitten

smitten
  • Member

  • 1,437 posts
  • Joined: October 10

Posted 09 November 2010 - 12:52

The most amusing permutation, to me, is if the running positions in the final laps are;

1. Webber
2. Vettel
3. Hamilton
DNF. Alonso

Highly unlikely I know, but what do RB do? Webber ain't moving over regardless of the instructions from the pit wall and would they even ask him to? Whichever RB crosses the line first picks up the WDC but if they repeat Turkey then Hamilton could picks up the pieces.

I realise that this isn't going to happen, but a lot of the supposition is for Vettel to be ahead of Webber on the road. If it is the other way round, and Alonso is out then we will see the mettle of RB.

#16 WhiteBlue

WhiteBlue
  • Member

  • 2,135 posts
  • Joined: July 10

Posted 09 November 2010 - 13:01

If Alonso has an engine failure the Bulls will fight like hell to the finish line. Vettel is the faster of the drivers and he has the fresher engine. It would need another mistake or technical failure from him to miss out on the championship. It would be poetic justice for Alonso to miss at least the seven points he gained illegitimately by a technical failure or team screw up in Abu Dhabi. I would like that to happen.

#17 2ms

2ms
  • Member

  • 2,212 posts
  • Joined: November 09

Posted 09 November 2010 - 13:17

Is there anything at all that RBR can legitimately do in the case that Alonso is behind one of their drivers but in a position where will win WDC if positions don't change? Do they just have to drive to the finish and lose the championship? Would it be illegitimate and/or prohibited for them to do something like drive only just fast enough to make it difficult for Alonso to overtake while being slow enough for whoever is behind him to catch him and attempt their own overtake? Has this kind of thing ever happened before?

Imagine, for example, Webber leading Alonso 1-2. Can they deliberately do anything to promote the chances of whoever is immediately behind Alonso catching him and overtaking?

Edited by 2ms, 09 November 2010 - 13:21.


#18 rolf123

rolf123
  • Member

  • 2,331 posts
  • Joined: October 07

Posted 09 November 2010 - 13:26

Is there anything at all that RBR can legitimately do in the case that Alonso is behind one of their drivers but in a position where will win WDC if positions don't change? Do they just have to drive to the finish and lose the championship? Would it be illegitimate and/or prohibited for them to do something like drive only just fast enough to make it difficult for Alonso to overtake while being slow enough for whoever is behind him to catch him and attempt their own overtake? Has this kind of thing ever happened before?

Imagine, for example, Webber leading Alonso 1-2. Can they deliberately do anything to promote the chances of whoever is immediately behind Alonso catching him and overtaking?


I would love to see something like this. I consider if fair game and not even cheating.


And what if Webber is leading with Vettel second and perhaps a few seconds ahead of Alonso?

Will Ferrari ask Massa to drop back and then hold Webber up when he comes to lap him? If I was Massa, I'd do that. Who cares about 4 blue flags.

In fact, now that I think about it, I really don't see the problem with Crashgate at all. Team tactics. No cheating involved.

#19 Peppe

Peppe
  • Member

  • 205 posts
  • Joined: March 07

Posted 09 November 2010 - 13:27

Is there anything at all that RBR can legitimately do in the case that Alonso is behind one of their drivers but in a position where will win WDC if positions don't change? Do they just have to drive to the finish and lose the championship? Would it be illegitimate and/or prohibited for them to do something like drive only just fast enough to make it difficult for Alonso to overtake while being slow enough for whoever is behind him to catch him and attempt their own overtake? Has this kind of thing ever happened before?

Imagine, for example, Webber leading Alonso 1-2. Can they deliberately do anything to promote the chances of whoever is immediately behind Alonso catching him and overtaking?

RBR just need to get Webber in front if they are running 1-2 with Alonso in 3rd, then Webber will take the title. But regarding your question, Schumacher held up Hakkinen considerably at Sepang in 1999 so Irvine could build a gap and go on to win the race without problems, however no one were able to overtake Hakkinen despite Schumachers defensive driving as far as I know.

Advertisement

#20 SuRGe

SuRGe
  • Member

  • 95 posts
  • Joined: October 08

Posted 09 November 2010 - 13:29

They might risk Alonso overtaking one of them... or even better, let him put more and more presure on them... oh lord, i can see someone choking in that scenario...

#21 GhostR

GhostR
  • Member

  • 2,630 posts
  • Joined: September 03

Posted 09 November 2010 - 13:47

If Alonso has an engine failure the Bulls will fight like hell to the finish line. Vettel is the faster of the drivers and he has the fresher engine. It would need another mistake or technical failure from him to miss out on the championship. It would be poetic justice for Alonso to miss at least the seven points he gained illegitimately by a technical failure or team screw up in Abu Dhabi. I would like that to happen.

Source?

#22 bauss

bauss
  • Member

  • 4,975 posts
  • Joined: June 10

Posted 10 November 2010 - 12:00

The most amusing permutation, to me, is if the running positions in the final laps are;

1. Webber
2. Vettel
3. Hamilton
DNF. Alonso

Highly unlikely I know, but what do RB do? Webber ain't moving over regardless of the instructions from the pit wall and would they even ask him to? Whichever RB crosses the line first picks up the WDC but if they repeat Turkey then Hamilton could picks up the pieces.

I realise that this isn't going to happen, but a lot of the supposition is for Vettel to be ahead of Webber on the road. If it is the other way round, and Alonso is out then we will see the mettle of RB.


actually, its not as implausible as it may seem...

anything short of Alonso taking pole n leading after the first lap, and we have squeaky bum drama time...

I have the feeling it will be a funny GP...n how it unfolds will be much less than straightforward.

#23 Tenmantaylor

Tenmantaylor
  • Member

  • 8,305 posts
  • Joined: July 01

Posted 11 November 2010 - 10:33

http://www.marca.com...mp;t=1289471500

Roll up, roll up, place your drivers, gets your champion.

Highly unlikely I know, but what do RB do? Webber ain't moving over regardless of the instructions from the pit wall and would they even ask him to? Whichever RB crosses the line first picks up the WDC but if they repeat Turkey then Hamilton could picks up the pieces.


Best title finale evuuuh! Would make 2008 look dull.

Edited by Tenmantaylor, 11 November 2010 - 10:37.


#24 Augurk

Augurk
  • Member

  • 1,932 posts
  • Joined: December 09

Posted 11 November 2010 - 11:38

http://www.marca.com...mp;t=1289471500

Roll up, roll up, place your drivers, gets your champion.



Best title finale evuuuh! Would make 2008 look dull.

Would be even better if we could get Glock (or another driver) involved. :p F.i. Fernando's out, Seb and Mark take each other out.

Other driver (non Ferrari or McLaren) in the lead, Hamilton second. Last lap is out, last corner leader makes a mistake, Hamilton takes the crown. That way we could have a cheering crowd in the Ferrari pit box again (Nando included) before seeing their faces turn sour! Imagine the animated gifs :clap:

#25 Shevek

Shevek
  • Member

  • 265 posts
  • Joined: October 07

Posted 11 November 2010 - 12:15

You guys gotta be crazy to think Massa will ever lead Alonso with a few laps to go.


But Alonso could do that voluntarily. Imagine that 5 laps to the end, they go 1st Vettel, 2nd Webber, 3rd Alonso, 4th Hamilton, 5th Massa. Then Alonso could move to the side and let Hamilton and Massa pass, staying at 5th. That way, he would prevent Vettel from swapping with Webber. Then, after Vettel crosses the line, Alonso re-passes Massa and finishes 4th, taking the WDC.

If he did that, this forum would explode, provoking a singularity and destroying the Universe.

#26 flyer121

flyer121
  • Member

  • 4,570 posts
  • Joined: July 10

Posted 11 November 2010 - 12:18

Would be even better if we could get Glock (or another driver) involved. :p F.i. Fernando's out, Seb and Mark take each other out.


I wonder if Glock is on Hamilton's personal payroll ? :)

But I am sure he would love to be in Kingmakers shoes once again ..

#27 Sausage

Sausage
  • Member

  • 1,798 posts
  • Joined: October 09

Posted 11 November 2010 - 13:23

Great job, Frank. Even The Guardian is using it. :up: :up:

http://www.guardian....vettel-hamilton


Ha! that just knocked my socks off :lol: but yeah very clear tables in here.

#28 Sausage

Sausage
  • Member

  • 1,798 posts
  • Joined: October 09

Posted 11 November 2010 - 13:26

But Alonso could do that voluntarily. Imagine that 5 laps to the end, they go 1st Vettel, 2nd Webber, 3rd Alonso, 4th Hamilton, 5th Massa. Then Alonso could move to the side and let Hamilton and Massa pass, staying at 5th. That way, he would prevent Vettel from swapping with Webber. Then, after Vettel crosses the line, Alonso re-passes Massa and finishes 4th, taking the WDC.

If he did that, this forum would explode, provoking a singularity and destroying the Universe.


Lol. That is a rich scenario! very cool but maybe not too realistic ;)

#29 Showty

Showty
  • Member

  • 1,260 posts
  • Joined: November 07

Posted 11 November 2010 - 14:18

This is a quite particular scenario:

1º Vettel
2º Webber
3º Hamilton
4º Massa
5º Alonso

What will RB would do?

Vettel would win it here and so Webber will...but Vettel won´t win it if Massa moves and Alonso finish 4th...although Webber will...

#30 Showty

Showty
  • Member

  • 1,260 posts
  • Joined: November 07

Posted 11 November 2010 - 14:20

But Alonso could do that voluntarily. Imagine that 5 laps to the end, they go 1st Vettel, 2nd Webber, 3rd Alonso, 4th Hamilton, 5th Massa. Then Alonso could move to the side and let Hamilton and Massa pass, staying at 5th. That way, he would prevent Vettel from swapping with Webber. Then, after Vettel crosses the line, Alonso re-passes Massa and finishes 4th, taking the WDC.

If he did that, this forum would explode, provoking a singularity and destroying the Universe.


LOL, didn´t see your post.

That would be the most spectacular ending of a season ever.

I assume RB will do nothing in there so Vettel and Webber would have to fight for the W.

#31 engel

engel
  • Member

  • 5,037 posts
  • Joined: November 08

Posted 11 November 2010 - 14:28

Because RB are idiots and won't assume Massa will let Alonso through to win championship?

#32 Mr2s

Mr2s
  • Member

  • 794 posts
  • Joined: February 10

Posted 11 November 2010 - 14:40

Because RB are idiots and won't assume Massa will let Alonso through to win championship?



Next year they should also have a 'Magnanimous drivers championship' ;)

#33 GhostR

GhostR
  • Member

  • 2,630 posts
  • Joined: September 03

Posted 11 November 2010 - 14:48

This is a quite particular scenario:

1º Vettel
2º Webber
3º Hamilton
4º Massa
5º Alonso

What will RB would do?

Vettel would win it here and so Webber will...but Vettel won´t win it if Massa moves and Alonso finish 4th...although Webber will...

Everyone knows that in this scenario Massa will move over and hand the title to Alonso. Everyone also knows that RBR will not instruct Vettel to move over. So it all comes down to what Vettel wants to do and what information the team give him so that he can make his decision.

#34 bauss

bauss
  • Member

  • 4,975 posts
  • Joined: June 10

Posted 11 November 2010 - 14:48

Because RB are idiots and won't assume Massa will let Alonso through to win championship?


Ferrari could try to make it out as Alonso having some problem :lol:

#35 bauss

bauss
  • Member

  • 4,975 posts
  • Joined: June 10

Posted 11 November 2010 - 14:48

Everyone knows that in this scenario Massa will move over and hand the title to Alonso. Everyone also knows that RBR will not instruct Vettel to move over. So it all comes down to what Vettel wants to do and what information the team give him so that he can make his decision.


exactly, that is the point...it will be Vettels call.

or imagine this scenario... they are running in this order

Vettel
Webber
Alonso
Hamilton...

very realistic right?

Vettel is clearly faster than Webber...

5 laps to go, Vettel grudgingly swaps with Webber...3 laps to go, Alonso's engine blows!... Vettel realizes he can win if he overtakes Webber, he tries hard, Webber defends hard. They both crash.

Hamilton wins the WDC by leading the race to the chequered flag behind the safety car :rotfl:

Edited by bauss, 11 November 2010 - 14:55.


#36 engel

engel
  • Member

  • 5,037 posts
  • Joined: November 08

Posted 11 November 2010 - 15:07

IMO the only pickle for RB would be a situation like Vettel - Webber - Hamilton - Button - Alonso with Alonso on Button's gearbox or something. Then it's a conundrum for them cause do they swap them or do they let Button effectively decide the outcome of the championship, sorta kinda Glock did in 08.



#37 rodfarva

rodfarva
  • Member

  • 50 posts
  • Joined: December 09

Posted 11 November 2010 - 17:53

But Alonso could do that voluntarily. Imagine that 5 laps to the end, they go 1st Vettel, 2nd Webber, 3rd Alonso, 4th Hamilton, 5th Massa. Then Alonso could move to the side and let Hamilton and Massa pass, staying at 5th. That way, he would prevent Vettel from swapping with Webber. Then, after Vettel crosses the line, Alonso re-passes Massa and finishes 4th, taking the WDC.

If he did that, this forum would explode, provoking a singularity and destroying the Universe.


haha awesome. best post in this thread. that running order, while unlikely, is still probably the most likely of any i can think of. personally, id rather see alonso dnf and the rbs battle like in turkey.

#38 R2D2

R2D2
  • Member

  • 780 posts
  • Joined: April 09

Posted 11 November 2010 - 18:36

In some ways I pity them -- especially if any of the tricky scenarios do arise. Imagine if Lewis were in the position of being able to decide whether Webber or Alonso wins the WDC? EEK!

#39 scheivlak

scheivlak
  • Member

  • 11,366 posts
  • Joined: August 01

Posted 11 November 2010 - 22:02

exactly, that is the point...it will be Vettels call.

or imagine this scenario... they are running in this order

Vettel
Webber
Alonso
Hamilton...

very realistic right?

Vettel is clearly faster than Webber...

5 laps to go, Vettel grudgingly swaps with Webber...3 laps to go, Alonso's engine blows!... Vettel realizes he can win if he overtakes Webber, he tries hard, Webber defends hard. They both crash.

Hamilton wins the WDC by leading the race to the chequered flag behind the safety car :rotfl:

But then there is an another twist - the safety car comes in with just a lap to go. Hamilton leads just ahead of Massa.
And now it is up to Massa to have a go on Hamilton giving the championship to Alonso....

Advertisement

#40 WhiteBlue

WhiteBlue
  • Member

  • 2,135 posts
  • Joined: July 10

Posted 12 November 2010 - 04:11

source
My hunch is that Vettel will get pole and control the race and that the battle between Webber and Alonso for second place on the grid and into the first corner will decide the championship. Webber has struggled to match Vettel for pace since Monza, albeit some times he’s been only a tenth off in qualifying. He needs to raise his game and go out and take it this weekend, otherwise Alonso will have him.

:up: +1

Edited by WhiteBlue, 12 November 2010 - 04:17.


#41 unoc

unoc
  • Member

  • 109 posts
  • Joined: October 10

Posted 12 November 2010 - 06:05

I believe that the most likely scenario's for each to win the WDC are

Webber
RBR
RBR
ALonso/hamilton
Alonso/hamilton

DOesn' matter what order, most like to happen over all scenarios, rbr quali ahead, run one two, alonso and hamilton behind, either webber wins, or the make the switch for webber to win.

Alonso
RBR
Alonso
RBR

Basically alonso divides the RBRs, wonder if since neither RBR can win this way, the front RBR backs alonso into the 2nd RBR to assist with an overtake.

Vettel
Vettel
----
Alonso DNF

Alonso will be in top 4 on speed, so they onyl way he wont be is if he has troubles and dnf's. Vettel would have to win or webber would have to have problems. A hamilton vettel webber with alonso DNF would be a webber WDC.

Hamilton
Hamilton
---
Webber DNF
Vettel DNF
Alonso DNF

If those three finish they are going to pick up too many points for hamilton to win.



So that's basically it, 5 scenarios, rbr rbr with alonso behind is webber, vettel win alonso dnf is vettel, alonso 1st/2nd is alonso, hamilton vettel webber is webber and hamilton needs to grab a ferrair and rbr doll and start his voodoo to win