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myth of the wdc crown


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#1 shanser

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Posted 10 November 2010 - 06:24

2006 alo wins 1st race and is wdc

2007 kimi wins 1st race and is wdc

2008 ham wins 1st race and is wdc

2009 but wins 1st race and is wdc

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#2 Jackmancer

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Posted 10 November 2010 - 06:32

This is no myth - it's simple facts. But 2005 proved otherwise, so what's your point?

#3 Beamer

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Posted 10 November 2010 - 07:23

Complete overview of the last 30 years:
[codebox]year 1st r wdc
1980 jones jones
1981 jones piquet
1982 prost rosberg
1983 piquet piquet
1984 prost lauda
1985 prost prost
1986 piquet prost
1987 prost piquet
1988 senna prost
1989 mansel prost
1990 senna senna
1991 senna senna
1992 mansel mansel
1993 prost prost
1994 schumi schumi
1995 schumi schumi
1996 hill hill
1997 coulth villen
1998 hakk hakk
1999 irvine hakk
2000 schumi schumi
2001 schumi schumi
2002 schumi schumi
2003 coulth schumi
2004 schumi schumi
2005 fisi alonso
2006 alonso alonso
2007 raikk raikk
2008 hamm hamm
2009 butt butt
[/codebox]

So for the last 30 years: 63% of the times the winner of the 1st race becomes WDC.
For the last 20 years (or 10, or 5) that has been 80% of the times.


#4 Ross Stonefeld

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Posted 10 November 2010 - 07:39

If you start a race or the championship from the front, it makes it a lot easier to win. Nothing magical about it really.

#5 shanser

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Posted 10 November 2010 - 07:49

This is no myth - it's simple facts. But 2005 proved otherwise, so what's your point?


hey come on.... :confused: im just puttin forward some interestin facts, unlike others who have been fantasizing about button crashin into vet web and alo in 1 go and alo deliberately slowing down and web crashn into alonsos finger.......

sorry, if u didnt like it

#6 cheapracer

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Posted 10 November 2010 - 07:54

If you start a race or the championship from the front, it makes it a lot easier to win. Nothing magical about it really.


More than that, it has often been a sign of your car has a head start for the year as your engineers have fitted it to that year's rules better than the other teams which is the biggy.


#7 Mika Mika

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Posted 10 November 2010 - 07:56

More than that, it has often been a sign of your car has a head start for the year as your engineers have fitted it to that year's rules better than the other teams which is the biggy.


Excatly! Assuming it's a 'Normal race' then the best car will 'Normally' win.

#8 pRy

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Posted 10 November 2010 - 08:06

Isn't there a similar thing about the driver who wins Monaco?

#9 shanser

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Posted 10 November 2010 - 08:06

Excatly! Assuming it's a 'Normal race' then the best car will 'Normally' win.


best car is the one that finishes the race 1st........
the fastest car is the one that is superior over 1 lap......

hope u understand the difference

#10 F.M.

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Posted 10 November 2010 - 08:12

2010: Vettel should have won the first race, Alonso lucks into the victory, Webber wins the WDC?

#11 Ferrari_F1_fan_2001

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Posted 10 November 2010 - 08:15

2010: Vettel should have won the first race, Alonso lucks into the victory, Webber wins the WDC?


Unless Alonso does something magical during this race, I can't see him ahead of the two Red Bull cars.

#12 Henrytheeigth

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Posted 10 November 2010 - 08:15

2010: Vettel should have won the first race, Alonso lucks into the victory, Webber wins the WDC?


And all in FM stereo to boot! :stoned:

#13 Dolph

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Posted 10 November 2010 - 08:15

Complete overview of the last 30 years:

year	1st r	wdc1980	jones	jones1981	jones	piquet1982	prost	rosberg1983	piquet	piquet1984	prost	lauda1985	prost	prost1986	piquet	prost1987	prost	piquet1988	senna	prost1989	mansel	prost1990	senna	senna1991	senna	senna1992	mansel	mansel1993	prost	prost1994	schumi	schumi1995	schumi	schumi1996	hill	hill1997	coulth	villen1998	hakk	hakk1999	irvine	hakk2000	schumi	schumi2001	schumi	schumi2002	schumi	schumi2003	coulth	schumi2004	schumi	schumi2005	fisi	alonso2006	alonso	alonso2007	raikk	raikk2008	hamm	hamm2009	butt	butt

So for the last 30 years: 63% of the times the winner of the 1st race becomes WDC.
For the last 20 years (or 10, or 5) that has been 80% of the times.



Didn't know its that high (80%). I guess next year I'll just watch the first race.

#14 Ross Stonefeld

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Posted 10 November 2010 - 08:24

2010: Vettel should have won the first race, Alonso lucks into the victory, Webber wins the WDC?


Luck or a microcosm of how the season has gone? Red Bull is fast but unreliable, Alonso capitalises on the small opportunities he's given.

#15 fifi

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Posted 10 November 2010 - 08:29

Isn't there a similar thing about the driver who wins Monaco?



there was one years back where whoever won brazil (when it was earlier in the season) won the wdc

#16 lustigson

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Posted 10 November 2010 - 09:07

I posted on this very subject in an other thread:

Of the past 60 World Championships, 29 have NOT been won by the driver who took the chequered flag at the first Grand Prix. However, in the last 20 seasons, only 4 times did the driver who won the first GP NOT take the WDC: 1997, '99, 2003, '05.



#17 Ross Stonefeld

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Posted 10 November 2010 - 09:09

Interestingly the first race in 97, 99, 03, and 05 were fairly chaotic; leading to somewhat unexpected winners. Coulthard in a McLaren, Irvine in a Ferrari, Coulthard again, and Fisichella in a Renault.

#18 PayasYouRace

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Posted 10 November 2010 - 12:12

It is interesting, but then it's often the case that starting the seaon with the best car sets you up for the championship, as it is harder to make a comeback. If you can get some momentum on your side at the first race, then you also have a psycological advantage too. Having said that, if you have a super competitive year like this one or 2003, then it means less.

Interestingly the first race in 97, 99, 03, and 05 were fairly chaotic; leading to somewhat unexpected winners. Coulthard in a McLaren, Irvine in a Ferrari, Coulthard again, and Fisichella in a Renault.


I was just about to mention that. Many times that the winner hasn't been the WDC at the end of the seaon, it has been because of an unusual or chaotic first race. '05 had the wet/dry qualifying which gave a strange grid. '03 was a crazy race, and Schumacher's Ferrari started falling apart. '99 saw the McLarens break down (I think, or was that 2000) and in '97 Villeneuve was taken out at the first corner despite a dominant pole.

Going further back, '89 saw Mansell's Ferrari hold together longer than anyone would have expected. Then you have '87 and '86 which saw the opposites. Piquet and Prost winning each in each other's WDC years. I think if you go back as far as this though, you're looking at a time when reliability wasn't the best and races were much more of a lottery in general.

#19 flyingman

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Posted 10 November 2010 - 12:22

Well, what it means is that the driver winning the first race, is probably going to be fighting for the WDC... which is pretty obvious... but it doesn't mean a thing when it comes to know who is gonna win it... before it's over...

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#20 Lifew12

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Posted 10 November 2010 - 13:06

2006 alo wins 1st race and is wdc

2007 kimi wins 1st race and is wdc

2008 ham wins 1st race and is wdc

2009 but wins 1st race and is wdc


So that's four years. What about the other fifty-odd?


#21 King Six

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Posted 10 November 2010 - 13:09

So that's four years. What about the other fifty-odd?

But it's four years to this year, unbroken, I think that's the point he's trying to make regarding the run up to Abu Dhabi

It's not much but...



#22 shanser

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Posted 10 November 2010 - 13:26

So that's four years. What about the other fifty-odd?


read post #3

#23 Dunder

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Posted 10 November 2010 - 13:46

If you start a race or the championship from the front, it makes it a lot easier to win. Nothing magical about it really.


In statistical terms, it is quite freakish actually.
This is especially true over the last five seasons where we have seen a fairly wide distribution of race wins.





#24 Tenmantaylor

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Posted 10 November 2010 - 15:03

On how many of those occasions have the points won in the first race been decisive? IE had that driver come 2nd or 3rd in the opening round they wouldn't have taken the title that year. For example, if Alonso wins the WDC this weekend for the 3rd time his Win in Bahrain after being beaten to pole by Massa will have been decisive. I'd guess it's quite high.

Edited by Tenmantaylor, 10 November 2010 - 15:04.


#25 hotstickyslick

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Posted 10 November 2010 - 15:10

Complete overview of the last 30 years:

year	1st r	wdc1980	jones	jones1981	jones	piquet1982	prost	rosberg1983	piquet	piquet1984	prost	lauda1985	prost	prost1986	piquet	prost1987	prost	piquet1988	senna	prost1989	mansel	prost1990	senna	senna1991	senna	senna1992	mansel	mansel1993	prost	prost1994	schumi	schumi1995	schumi	schumi1996	hill	hill1997	coulth	villen1998	hakk	hakk1999	irvine	hakk2000	schumi	schumi2001	schumi	schumi2002	schumi	schumi2003	coulth	schumi2004	schumi	schumi2005	fisi	alonso2006	alonso	alonso2007	raikk	raikk2008	hamm	hamm2009	butt	butt

So for the last 30 years: 63% of the times the winner of the 1st race becomes WDC.
For the last 20 years (or 10, or 5) that has been 80% of the times.

1988 is wrong, Senna did not win the first race in Brazil as he was disqualified and Prost was not the WDC that year either.

#26 Bunchies

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Posted 10 November 2010 - 17:55

But it's four years to this year, unbroken, I think that's the point he's trying to make regarding the run up to Abu Dhabi

It's not much but...


Which means that it would be, statistically, less likely to happen this year. Or we can hope at least.

#27 DrF

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Posted 10 November 2010 - 17:59

2010: Vettel should have won the first race, Alonso lucks into the victory, Webber wins the WDC?


This is exactly what is going to happen!

#28 Bunchies

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Posted 10 November 2010 - 18:04

On how many of those occasions have the points won in the first race been decisive? IE had that driver come 2nd or 3rd in the opening round they wouldn't have taken the title that year. For example, if Alonso wins the WDC this weekend for the 3rd time his Win in Bahrain after being beaten to pole by Massa will have been decisive. I'd guess it's quite high.


Because Massa was on pole for Bahrain 2010? I love how the season changes as it goes on. Whatever happened to checking facts? :cry:

#29 Tenmantaylor

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Posted 10 November 2010 - 19:31

Because Massa was on pole for Bahrain 2010? I love how the season changes as it goes on. Whatever happened to checking facts? :cry:


Sorry, after being beaten by Massa in Qual. Forgot Seb was on pole.