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Analysis of 2011 WDC and WCC odds


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#1 WhiteBlue

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Posted 21 November 2010 - 14:05

The 2010 season is over and the bookies are taking bets now for 2011. I will monitor the odds through the next season as I did this year. This is how Skybet (UK) sees the drivers at the end of the season before any news about the new cars have come out.

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This is te raw data format that we get in a screen shot.

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This is how I import the data by hand into my Excel table. Note how Sky is giving itself a huge overrun of 52% for the very long term bet.

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And this is how it pans out in graphics. Vettel, Alonso and Hamilton are all rated top tier. Rosberg, Schumacher, Kubica, Webber and Button are tier two and the rest is also run. No big surprise is the top tier. I would have estimated that. Pretty shocking for their fans are the odds for Webber and Button. Rosberg is considered better than Schumacher which after this season is pretty realistic I would say.

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#2 phil1993

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Posted 21 November 2010 - 14:15

I tell you what, its worth a bet on Massa at those odds.

#3 Fastcake

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Posted 21 November 2010 - 14:16

Might be worth a fiver on Button there, looks undervalued with the Mercedes pair above him.

#4 Mandzipop

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Posted 21 November 2010 - 14:18

I tell you what, its worth a bet on Massa at those odds.


I was thinking the same. He was very happy with the Pirelli tyres.

#5 sanjiro

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Posted 21 November 2010 - 14:22

And this is how it pans out in graphics. Vettel, Alonso and Hamilton are all rated top tier. Rosberg, Schumacher, Kubica, Webber and Button are tier two and the rest is also run. No big surprise is the top tier. I would have estimated that. Pretty shocking for their fans are the odds for Webber and Button. Rosberg is considered better than Schumacher which after this season is pretty realistic I would say.



I doubt anyone is shocked by that.

JB has not looked like beating LH under ANY circumstances in 2010 without a very messed up race to benefit from good pit strategy.

MW might have been a threat to SV in 2011 and as such had slightly better odds than JB.
However...

1. SV has the WDC
2. MW is not at all comfortable in RBR
3. RBR have all winter to lay down the #2 play book for MW to follow
4. The more development RBR have done with SV as their template driver the less competitive MW has become.

Personally I am shocked JB and MW dont have lower odds.

#6 phil1993

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Posted 21 November 2010 - 14:35

Well you know how expertly Sky must look at it, considering 3 of the guys listed don't have 2011 drives :p

#7 WhiteBlue

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Posted 21 November 2010 - 14:48

I think the figures will change a bit in the next weeks as the bookies will react to the money that is actually set on the various drivers. This is only the starting point. Still I thought it is worthwhile recording it because it will give you a feel how things will shape up when more money is put down. The serious betting will only start when the testing goes under way in February.

#8 Ross Stonefeld

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Posted 21 November 2010 - 15:02

We don't have a single 2011 car launched, so how can those odds be calculated? Hulkenberg isn't currently an F1 driver. 80 to 1 is pretty good WC odds for a guy who might be watching the races on TV.

#9 WhiteBlue

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Posted 21 November 2010 - 15:13

We don't have a single 2011 car launched, so how can those odds be calculated?

I don't think that the cars need to be launched to represent the view of the betting money. At the moment this is probably just a starting point which is set by some experts at the betting firm. Later as more money enters they will set the odds in such a way that they reflect the total money that is put on the driver minus the house cut. We will recognize that by the way the favorites will drift apart prior to the cars coming out.

#10 Sir Frank

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Posted 21 November 2010 - 15:46

you made a mistake when converting fractional odds into decimals. 3/1 is 4.00 (25%) etc

also, skybet is not a serious book, you might wanna look elsewhere


#11 Ross Stonefeld

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Posted 21 November 2010 - 16:01

BWIN have their odds up too, and think Hulkenberg is twice as likely to be the 2011 WC as Rubens. They must know something we don't :lol:

#12 pinkypants

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Posted 21 November 2010 - 16:06

http://sports.willia...nship-2011.html

Drivers Championship 2011
5/2
Sebastian Vettel

3/1
Fernando Alonso
10/3
Lewis Hamilton

9/1
Nico Rosberg
10/1
Mark Webber

12/1
Jenson Button
12/1
Michael Schumacher

20/1
Felipe Massa
25/1
Robert Kubica

66/1
Adrian Sutil
100/1
Nico Hulkenberg

100/1
Rubens Barrichello
125/1
Kamui Kobayashi

125/1
Vitaly Petrov
150/1
Jamie Alguersuari

150/1
Sebastien Buemi
200/1
Pastor Maldonado

250/1
Paul Di Resta
250/1
Sergio Perez

250/1
Nick Heidfeld
500/1
Heikki Kovalainen

500/1
Bruno Senna
500/1
Timo Glock

500/1
Jarno Trulli

1/5 Odds Place 1,2,3

11 Mar 09:00 UK
4/11
Lewis Hamilton v Jenson Button
2/1

All Bets
Stats
11 Mar 09:00 UK
1/6
Fernando Alonso v Felipe Massa
7/2

All Bets
Stats
11 Mar 09:00 UK
EVS
Michael Schumacher v Nico Rosberg
8/11

All Bets
Stats
11 Mar 09:00 UK
2/5
Sebastian Vettel v Mark Webber
7/4

All Bets

Edited by pinkypants, 21 November 2010 - 16:07.


#13 WhiteBlue

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Posted 21 November 2010 - 16:16

you made a mistake when converting fractional odds into decimals. 3/1 is 4.00 (25%) etc

That is some very advanced mathematics. :eek: For me three divided by one is still three and not four.

#14 aditya-now

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Posted 21 November 2010 - 16:17

I tell you what, its worth a bet on Massa at those odds.


It´s worth to bet on Webber at these odds. They are funny in thinking that now Mark is finished. With all the Red Bull fair play stuff it would suit Mateschitz very nicely if Webber becomes champion next year. Another round of great publicity for Red Bull.


#15 Makarias

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Posted 21 November 2010 - 16:25

That is some very advanced mathematics. :eek: For me three divided by one is still three and not four.

3/1 means that for every 1 unit of money you put in the pot, the bookie puts 3 units of money in the pot.

It's because they are British, they have odd shaped heads.

#16 WhiteBlue

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Posted 21 November 2010 - 16:28

3/1 means that for every 1 unit of money you put in the pot, the bookie puts 3 units of money in the pot.

No, I don't think so. The bookie never puts money into the pot. He only takes money out. It means for every unit of money you bet the bookie gives you three back if your bet turns out true.

Edited by WhiteBlue, 21 November 2010 - 16:29.


#17 Mandzipop

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Posted 21 November 2010 - 16:32

If someone is 3/1 and you place a bet at £1, you will get your £1 back and £3. If the odds are 2/5, you have to place £5 to get the extra £2.

#18 WhiteBlue

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Posted 21 November 2010 - 16:44

This are the initial odds for 2011. I will use William Hill instead of Sky UK in 2011 for the regional UK bookie. BWin will remain the German bookie and Ibetips the Spanish.

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I will evaluate world odds from decimal odds by averaging.

#19 Mandzipop

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Posted 21 November 2010 - 16:45

This are the initial odds for 2011. I will use William Hill instead of Sky UK in 2011 for the regional UK bookie. BWin will remain the German bookie and Ibetips the Spanish.

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I will evaluate world odds from decimal odds by averaging.


Try this site, you'll find them all quicker.

http://www.oddscheck...rs-championship

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#20 Yorkie

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Posted 21 November 2010 - 16:45

I tell you what, its worth a bet on Massa at those odds.

Not really :lol:

I was thinking the same. He was very happy with the Pirelli tyres.

He still will not beat Alonso

I doubt anyone is shocked by that.

JB has not looked like beating LH under ANY circumstances in 2010 without a very messed up race to benefit from good pit strategy.

MW might have been a threat to SV in 2011 and as such had slightly better odds than JB.
However...

1. SV has the WDC
2. MW is not at all comfortable in RBR
3. RBR have all winter to lay down the #2 play book for MW to follow
4. The more development RBR have done with SV as their template driver the less competitive MW has become.

Personally I am shocked JB and MW dont have lower odds.

The reality is that they both would have been well beaten by their respective team mates if not for mechanical problems

Edited by Yorkie, 21 November 2010 - 16:50.


#21 WhiteBlue

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Posted 21 November 2010 - 16:51

If someone is 3/1 and you place a bet at £1, you will get your £1 back and £3. If the odds are 2/5, you have to place £5 to get the extra £2.

It is a silly way to put it. All I want to know is the decimal factor of the pay back that the bookie pays out on top of my bet. If the odds are 0.4 I can figure it out much easier than 2/5. The bookie keeps my $1,000 if I loose but he pays me $400 and returns my $1,000 if I win.

Try this site, you'll find them all quicker. http://www.oddscheck...rs-championship

Thanks for the help. Unfortunately they do not show Ibetips. Obviously I want to have a bookie for every nationality of a top driver to make it a fair world view.

Edited by WhiteBlue, 21 November 2010 - 16:57.


#22 KateLM

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Posted 21 November 2010 - 16:56

It is a silly way to put it. All I want to know is the decimal factor of the pay back that the bookie pays out on top of my bet. If the odds are 0.4 I can figure it out much easier than 2/5. The bookie keeps my $1,000 if I loose but he pays me $400 and returns my $1,000 if I win.

No, its a different but still accurate way of putting it.

#23 Yolandy

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Posted 21 November 2010 - 17:12

Try this site, you'll find them all quicker.

http://www.oddscheck...rs-championship


lol Some betting company reckons Kimi Raikkonen in WRC (or on a yatch) has a chance to win WDC at 1:29! :rotfl: :rotfl:

#24 zack1994

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Posted 21 November 2010 - 17:21

Not really :lol:


He still will not beat Alonso


The reality is that they both would have been well beaten by their respective team mates if not for mechanical problems

i disagree it will be buttons second year at mclaren he'll be much better hopefully mclaren will have a better so he will be a contender, to discount webber next year is silly he'll come back stronger

#25 sanjiro

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Posted 21 November 2010 - 17:40

i disagree it will be buttons second year at mclaren he'll be much better hopefully mclaren will have a better so he will be a contender, to discount webber next year is silly he'll come back stronger



Honestly I doubt JB will come on stronger next year. (but what do I know)

As for MW....he has been boxed tagged and put on the bottom shelf.
I dont care what rubbish RBR spout, MW will not be racing SV in 2011 he will be seeing out his contract and doing what they tell him.
Which is what they expected from him in 2009 and 2010, he just had the audacity to not play along.

RBR want to get to 2012 with SV 2x WDC.
MW does not feature in that plan


#26 seltaeb

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Posted 21 November 2010 - 17:49

How on earth is Hulkenberg at 80/1 but Barrichello is only 100/1? Rubens had twice as many points as Hulkenberg this year and Hulk is out of a ride.

#27 WhiteBlue

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Posted 21 November 2010 - 18:06

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I have now prepared the traditional world view. According to this Webber is better rated than Kubica but still below Rosberg and Schumacher.

Edited by WhiteBlue, 21 November 2010 - 18:08.


#28 aditya-now

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Posted 21 November 2010 - 18:26

It is a silly way to put it.


Yes, the bookies, they are all silly. This way of putting it has just been invented to irritate you, WhiteBlue. They are not interested in your wish for decimal factors, obviously, but have presented the odds like this for many decades....


#29 aditya-now

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Posted 21 November 2010 - 18:28

lol Some betting company reckons Kimi Raikkonen in WRC (or on a yatch) has a chance to win WDC at 1:29! :rotfl: :rotfl:


So go ahead and bet on him! What odds do you get for Loeb?


#30 BigCHrome

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Posted 21 November 2010 - 19:43

How on earth is Hulkenberg at 80/1 but Barrichello is only 100/1? Rubens had twice as many points as Hulkenberg this year and Hulk is out of a ride.


Hulkenberg has more potential.

#31 Mandzipop

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Posted 21 November 2010 - 19:44

Hulkenberg has more potential.


He needs a seat first.

#32 H2H

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Posted 21 November 2010 - 19:48


Hm, a bet on Mark would be quite interesting...

H2H

#33 apoka

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Posted 21 November 2010 - 22:15

He needs a seat first.

It could be, because of the Ferrari rumours. In addition, Hulkenberg probably still has a lot of potential to improve. We are talking about <1% chance to win the WDC, so it's mostly speculation.

#34 KateLM

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Posted 21 November 2010 - 23:07

He needs a seat first.

Really highlights how much stock can be put in bookies odds (i.e. none).

#35 dnbn

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Posted 21 November 2010 - 23:14

BWIN have their odds up too, and think Hulkenberg is twice as likely to be the 2011 WC as Rubens. They must know something we don't :lol:

Barrichello has a higher chance to beat Hulkenberg in the WDC ranking in 2011, however, Hulkenberg has a higher chance, given what is known today, to be the WDC. It is a given that Barrichello will drive for Williams and it is almost a given that Williams won't be a top team. Hulkenberg has a chance, albeit a small one, to drive for a top team and given that a nonzero chance to be WDC.

#36 Dunder

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Posted 22 November 2010 - 05:55

Why don't you just use Betfair?
It is a global exchange.

All of the oddsmakers you have used are recreational bookmakers, who can afford to skew their odds due to hideous margins/overrounds.

NB; WhiteBlue your conversions from decimal odds to percentages in your latest spreadsheet are all incorrect.

Decimal odds of 4.00 equals 25% not 20% (and yes that is the same as 3/1),

Edited by Dunder, 22 November 2010 - 05:57.


#37 WhiteBlue

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Posted 01 December 2010 - 20:17

NB; WhiteBlue your conversions from decimal odds to percentages in your latest spreadsheet are all incorrect.
Decimal odds of 4.00 equals 25% not 20% (and yes that is the same as 3/1),


Thanks for pointing that out. It is at the conversion stage from fractions to decimal where the one is added. Decimal odds can simply be inverted. I will make a correction.

Posted Image

Here is the corrected version.

Edited by WhiteBlue, 01 December 2010 - 20:44.


#38 BullHead

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Posted 01 December 2010 - 20:53

Webber looks a good punt

As for MW....he has been boxed tagged and put on the bottom shelf.
I dont care what rubbish RBR spout, MW will not be racing SV in 2011 he will be seeing out his contract and doing what they tell him.
Which is what they expected from him in 2009 and 2010, he just had the audacity to not play along.

RBR want to get to 2012 with SV 2x WDC.
MW does not feature in that plan


Don't beleive this

#39 undersquare

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Posted 01 December 2010 - 21:28

Webber looks a good punt


14:1 would be suicide on Webber. He tightened up so much at Korea and Abu Dhabi, plus the odds on Vettel getting all those car problems again, and Webber almost none, are astronomical.

It's way too soon to get any advantage over the bookies anyway, they have the top 3 at 3:1 and the rest nowhere, we can't improve on that can we? We have to wait for testing.

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#40 WhiteBlue

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Posted 02 December 2010 - 02:06

Here we go with the WCC and match opening odds.

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Red Bull is favorite for WCC. Alonso is favorite to beat his team mate while Rosberg is least favorite of the top teams to do so.

#41 HopkinsonF1

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Posted 04 December 2010 - 11:22

Alonso is favorite to beat his team mate while Rosberg is least favorite of the top teams to do so.


Just to clarify: Rosberg isn't the least favourite of the drivers in top teams to beat their teammate. Massa is. Rosberg is the driver among the top teams who, despite being considered more likely than their teammate to win, is considered so by the smallest margin.

#42 Mat

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Posted 06 December 2010 - 02:44

I got Webber at 6-1 for WDC yesterday.

Im surprised he is even longer odds with Euro betting agencies. Shows how the local favoritism has brought him down to more realistic level.

#43 Dunder

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Posted 06 December 2010 - 08:05

I got Webber at 6-1 for WDC yesterday.

Im surprised he is even longer odds with Euro betting agencies. Shows how the local favoritism has brought him down to more realistic level.


Well that is one way of looking at it!

#44 WhiteBlue

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Posted 01 February 2011 - 14:26

Why don't you just use Betfair? It is a global exchange. All of the oddsmakers you have used are recreational bookmakers, who can afford to skew their odds due to hideous margins/overrounds.


I have thought about the proposal and I think I will do it that way. The advantage I see is the automatic generation of the odds and the information how big the market is. From today, 01.02.2011 I will not do the composite tri national but simply use the Betfair odds. Today the market was 59,000 €.

Posted Image

Edited by WhiteBlue, 01 February 2011 - 17:59.


#45 WhiteBlue

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Posted 03 February 2011 - 19:28

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The Betfair F1 WDC market improved by 33% in volume during the first F1 test in Valencia from 60 to 80 k€. The movements were small. Alonso, Rosberg, Kubica and Sutil improved. Kubica went from 23 to 18 at the last day due to taking P1. It still looks like a season between Vettel, Alonso and Hamilton unless significant news is generated by the next few test. I see a surprise chance at Mercedes. They ran pretty reliably on the third day and had a record of 110 laps. Rosberg can nowhere near this kind of reliability on the second day and might suffer in the odds as a result of that.

#46 WhiteBlue

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Posted 10 February 2011 - 08:28

Update on the odds before the second test and after Kubica accident. The market now at 128 k€.

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Heidfeld has now been added.

Edited by WhiteBlue, 10 February 2011 - 14:06.


#47 WhiteBlue

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Posted 13 February 2011 - 20:18

And here is the update after the Jerez test. The market has now reached 151 k€.

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Heidfeld is going to be announced as the Kubica stand in on Monday while Kubica's odds have gone up to 500 to win this years WDC. Reality finally has sunk in that he will not play a part in this years proceeding. Heidfeld is basically on a similar level as Massa but far away from the 18 Kubica boasted on his best day when he set fastest time in the Valencia test.

Rubens improved his odds today by going fastest and Michael Schumacher cemented his better odds during testing by running massive amounts of laps in both Valencia and Jerez with the W02 while Rosberg always seems to have the glitches.

The top of the odds keeps tipping one or the other side between Alonso and Vettel depending of who does anything spectacular in the car. The Ferrari is by far the car with the highest milage while many observers see the RB7 as the car with the highest downforce once again.

McLaren did not have a smooth start to the 2011 testing and Hamilton cannot close in on the two top drivers while the car fails to impress the observers with milage and performance.

#48 WhiteBlue

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Posted 22 February 2011 - 05:25

This is the market and a view of the odds after the first Barcelona test and the cancellation of the Bahrain GP

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The market has grown to almost 200k€. Williams Hill has made adjustments to their WCC odds. They still see Red Bull as the favorite. Strangely Ferrari are classed with McLaren at 3.5 although testing suggests that Ferrari should probably be closer to Red Bull. It appears that the market is still too small for the big betting houses to generate odds that reflect the testing scenario. Beyond Mercedes all teams see their odds deteriorate.

No big changes at the drivers. Heidfeld looses ground and Barrichello improves significantly. Kubica's odds are slowly worsening as a miracle recovery becomes less probable.





#49 Mat

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Posted 22 February 2011 - 05:54

Thanks for the updates. Good to see how the euro market is moving.

I have already laid the following:
World Champ - M Webber @ 8-1
Head to Head, Webber vs Hamilton - Webber @ 2.35
Season DNF's - Webber Over 2.5 @ 2.20


#50 WhiteBlue

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Posted 22 February 2011 - 06:46

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This is the format I will be using during the season instead of the pie chart to illustrate the development. Pretty much as last year. I would like to make the fill transparent but I can't get my Excel to do this.