4 replies to this topic

[Makarias]

The standings after Australia:

Pos Name Tot Latest
1) Anderis 101 101
= Apex 101 101
= arcsine 101 101
= Brawn BGP 001 101 101
= control 101 101
= Costaz 101 101
= Crazy Canuck 101 101
= Dispenser89 101 101
= Estwald 101 101
= fisichella_2001 101 101
= Grayson 101 101
= jeze 101 101
= kismet 101 101
= kNt 101 101
= KWSN -DSM 101 101
= LB 101 101
= Makarias 101 101
= mark f1 101 101
= paranoik0 101 101
= scheivlak 101 101
= Viceroy 101 101
= Wlleiotl 101 101
23) AcuraF1 100 100
= August 100 100
= skylark68 100 100

Points losses immediately as three players had placed nothing on di Resta.

The entries


The following list shows the maximum, average ("popularity poll") and minimum bets on each driver. In order to make the Popularity Poll 1919 points, the value for Hamilton was rounded off upwards instead of downwards, as it otherwise would have been.

Name Max Pop Min
Vett 336 271 223
Alon 324 254 200
Webb 282 225 175
Mass 285 179 140
Hami 248 172 84
Rosb 194 145 81
Butt 224 139 60
Schu 225 130 54
Heid 161 110 70
Barr 100 62 33
Petr 83 47 20
Koba 80 41 10
Algu 85 30 3
Buem 84 29 6
Suti 60 23 4
Mald 60 22 1
Pere 50 19 0
diRe 40 12 0
Kova 12 3 0
Kubi 50 2 0
Ricc 15 2 0
Trul 5 2 0
dAmb 2 0 0
Gloc 2 0 0
Hülk 4 0 0
Kart 2 0 0
Liuz 4 0 0
Senn 3 0 0

Kubica and Ricciardo get into the points ahead of the Virgin and HRT drivers...


If the Popularity Poll turns out to be a 100% correct prediction, the final standings would look like this:

Pos Name Tot
1) Viceroy 1824
2) Makarias 1819
3) skylark68 1818
4) scheivlak 1816
5) fisichella_2001 1813
6) Brawn BGP 001 1810
7) kismet 1798
8) Apex 1795
9) Anderis 1794
10) mark f1 1786
11) arcsine 1778
12) Costaz 1751
= LB 1751
14) paranoik0 1750
15) Dispenser89 1735
16) AcuraF1 1732
17) Grayson 1726
= kNt 1726
19) jeze 1724
20) Estwald 1716
21) control 1710
22) Crazy Canuck 1698
23) Wlleiotl 1653
24) August 1595
25) KWSN -DSM 1592

Viceroy is average entry of the year, while KWSN - DSM gets the award for least average guess of the year for the second year in a row. Whether this is good or bad remains to be seen.


How many players have guessed each driver for WDC?

Driver Players
Vett 18
Alon 3
Hami 2
Schu 1
Webb 1

Vettel is the clear WDC favourite, but Alonso's points average isn't all that far behind.


Teammate battles: Which driver is expected to outscore his teammate?

Owner Owned
<- = ->
Alon 25 0 0 Mass
Barr 25 0 0 Mald
Heid 25 0 0 Petr
Koba 25 0 0 Pere
Hami 24 0 1 Butt
Suti 24 0 1 diRe
Vett 24 0 1 Webb
Rosb 20 0 5 Schu
Kova 14 8 3 Trul
Algu 14 2 9 Buem
Gloc 4 21 0 DiGr
Liuz 1 24 0 Kart

A pretty boring consensus on the pecking order within the majority of teams, but notably in each of the more interesting teams Lotus, Mercedes and Toro Rosso the preferred driver has shifted from last year. The Virgin and HRT pairings are expected to be closely matched on the sad basis of an inability to score points.


The Drivers' list

Driver Expect Surprise Beat
% % #
Petr 32,2 17,9 0
Buem 13,8 4,7 0
Hami 10,5 7,2 0
Vett 9,2 7,4 0
Suti 8,9 3,3 0
diRe 8,3 2,4 3
Butt 5,8 3,6 0
Alon 4,7 3,7 0
Webb 4,4 3,5 0
Mass 3,3 2,1 0

Petrov obviously was the big surprise in Australia. In the long run, the McLarens' unexpected pace may end up being the big watershed this season.

EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2011 this is 25.


Guesses on P1-P5:

Vettel Hamilton Petrov Alonso Webber
* Forecast 475 * Potential 468 * Potential 465 * Potential 462 * Potential 460
* Potential 475 * Forecast 342 * Forecast 285 August 324 August 282
Costaz 336 control 248 KWSN -DSM 83 kNt 307 Dispenser89 268
arcsine 318 Grayson 236 Grayson 78 Costaz 305 AcuraF1 252
August 317 Crazy Canuck 230 control 77 jeze 289 paranoik0 245
AcuraF1 315 AcuraF1 222 Wlleiotl 70 AcuraF1 279 Crazy Canuck 242
paranoik0 292 fisichella_2001 209 Estwald 68 scheivlak 278 LB 242
Brawn BGP 001 281 jeze 209 jeze 65 Makarias 265 kismet 239
Apex 280 skylark68 205 Brawn BGP 001 54 Brawn BGP 001 260 Anderis 234
scheivlak 280 Costaz 201 scheivlak 54 Anderis 259 arcsine 231
Anderis 279 LB 200 kNt 53 Crazy Canuck 252 Viceroy 230
jeze 278 Viceroy 196 Dispenser89 51 LB 252 Costaz 226
Makarias 272 mark f1 195 paranoik0 48 Viceroy 251 Apex 225
skylark68 268 Dispenser89 193 LB 45 skylark68 249 fisichella_2001 221
Viceroy 267 Apex 185 arcsine 43 paranoik0 247 jeze 221
fisichella_2001 266 Makarias 177 Makarias 42 fisichella_2001 246 skylark68 220
kNt 265 scheivlak 175 Crazy Canuck 40 arcsine 242 mark f1 219
mark f1 265 Brawn BGP 001 158 fisichella_2001 38 Estwald 240 kNt 215
Crazy Canuck 256 kismet 145 AcuraF1 33 kismet 240 scheivlak 215
LB 256 kNt 137 August 33 Apex 235 Brawn BGP 001 210
Dispenser89 254 arcsine 131 Costaz 33 mark f1 235 Estwald 210
Wlleiotl 250 Anderis 129 Anderis 31 * Forecast 228 Makarias 208
kismet 247 Estwald 113 Viceroy 30 KWSN -DSM 224 control 200
Estwald 243 August 109 Apex 25 control 223 Wlleiotl 200
control 235 paranoik0 100 kismet 25 Dispenser89 220 KWSN -DSM 195
Grayson 235 Wlleiotl 100 skylark68 25 Grayson 220 * Forecast 190
KWSN -DSM 223 KWSN -DSM 84 mark f1 20 Wlleiotl 200 Grayson 175
* Current 25 * Current 18 * Current 15 * Current 12 * Current 10

KWSN - DSM could be happy to top the Petrov list but may overall be more sad to be at the bottom of the Vettel and Hamilton lists... Note the large points span for the Hamilton guesses!


Guesses on P6-P10:

Button Massa Buemi Sutil Di Resta
* Potential 458 * Potential 456 * Potential 454 * Potential 452 * Potential 451
Crazy Canuck 224 August 285 KWSN -DSM 84 Grayson 60 Grayson 40
LB 204 control 216 kismet 77 Dispenser89 42 LB 32
fisichella_2001 182 kNt 211 * Forecast 76 * Forecast 38 control 20
control 180 KWSN -DSM 200 Wlleiotl 60 Apex 35 jeze 20
skylark68 177 Anderis 194 Apex 40 skylark68 33 scheivlak 19
mark f1 175 arcsine 194 LB 40 control 31 * Forecast 19
Viceroy 168 Estwald 193 Costaz 37 Crazy Canuck 30 Dispenser89 18
Dispenser89 164 kismet 189 Anderis 34 fisichella_2001 29 kNt 17
AcuraF1 161 Viceroy 186 Estwald 31 jeze 29 arcsine 16
Grayson 160 mark f1 185 Crazy Canuck 30 kismet 29 Apex 15
Makarias 158 fisichella_2001 184 Grayson 30 Viceroy 24 Viceroy 12
* Forecast 152 Wlleiotl 180 kNt 26 arcsine 22 Makarias 11
Costaz 150 AcuraF1 176 paranoik0 26 kNt 21 fisichella_2001 10
jeze 145 scheivlak 173 skylark68 26 LB 20 mark f1 10
Brawn BGP 001 137 jeze 171 Makarias 23 mark f1 20 paranoik0 10
Apex 135 skylark68 170 arcsine 20 scheivlak 20 Brawn BGP 001 9
kismet 131 Costaz 168 mark f1 20 Makarias 17 kismet 9
arcsine 121 Brawn BGP 001 166 scheivlak 19 Costaz 16 Costaz 7
scheivlak 115 Apex 160 AcuraF1 17 Anderis 15 Crazy Canuck 7
kNt 103 paranoik0 160 August 15 Estwald 15 Estwald 6
Anderis 93 Makarias 147 Dispenser89 14 Brawn BGP 001 14 Anderis 5
paranoik0 88 Crazy Canuck 144 jeze 14 paranoik0 12 Wlleiotl 5
KWSN -DSM 81 Dispenser89 144 Viceroy 14 AcuraF1 10 KWSN -DSM 2
Estwald 80 LB 144 control 12 Wlleiotl 10 * Current 1
Wlleiotl 80 Grayson 140 fisichella_2001 8 August 6 AcuraF1 0
August 60 * Forecast 114 Brawn BGP 001 6 KWSN -DSM 4 August 0
* Current 8 * Current 6 * Current 4 * Current 2 skylark68 0

The Button guesses too have a big range, with August standing out there as well as in the Massa list. Even the backmarkers have the guesses widely spread; a good Buemi guess might for example make a rather big difference in the end.

The PTPC forecast
Will appear after the Spanish GP.

[noikeee]

With McLaren being much quicker in Melbourne than expected from testing, and Mercedes much slower, the order of the cars becomes very similar to last year. This means whoever didn't pay attention to testing or intentionally chose to ignore it, expecting continuity from 2010, has an advantage in this game!

You may recall I had a very low bet on both McLarens, thankfully after Withmarsh came to the press saying they had won 1 second I made a last minute edit to give them more points. But it was still nowhere near enough, I only have 100 on Hamilton and 88 on Button. With that and all the points I wasted on the Mercs I'm expecting a very poor result. The big bet on Vettel may be the only thing I can save some points from.

[scheivlak]

Mak, it seems you missed the changes I made in my prediction - in my later entry I had Button on 125, Sutil on 15 and di Resta on 14.

[Makarias]

Thanks for the notice, scheivlak. Recalculations of the stats will be done.

[Makarias]

With scheivlak's changes, Sutil drops to 22 points in the Popularity Poll. The point instead moves to Kubica:

Name Max Pop Min
Vett 336 271 223
Alon 324 254 200
Webb 282 225 175
Mass 285 179 140
Hami 248 172 84
Rosb 194 145 81
Butt 224 139 60
Schu 225 130 54
Heid 161 110 70
Barr 100 62 33
Petr 83 47 20
Koba 80 41 10
Algu 85 30 3
Buem 84 29 6
Suti 60 22 4
Mald 60 22 1
Pere 50 19 0
diRe 40 12 0
Kova 12 3 0
Kubi 50 3 0
Ricc 15 2 0
Trul 5 2 0
dAmb 2 0 0
Gloc 2 0 0
Hülk 4 0 0
Kart 2 0 0
Liuz 4 0 0
Senn 3 0 0

In the averageness battle, scheivlak skips past the bewildered host to second:

Pos Name Tot
1) Viceroy 1823
2) scheivlak 1821
3) Makarias 1819
4) skylark68 1817
5) fisichella_2001 1812
6) Brawn BGP 001 1810
7) kismet 1797
8) Anderis 1794
= Apex 1794
10) mark f1 1786
11) arcsine 1779
12) Costaz 1751
= LB 1751
14) paranoik0 1750
15) Dispenser89 1734
16) AcuraF1 1732
17) kNt 1726
18) Grayson 1725
19) jeze 1723
20) Estwald 1716
21) control 1709
22) Crazy Canuck 1698
23) Wlleiotl 1653
24) August 1595
25) KWSN -DSM 1592

The Drivers' list

Driver Expect Surprise Beat
% % #
Petr 32,2 17,9 0
Buem 13,8 4,7 0
Hami 10,5 7,2 0
Vett 9,2 7,4 0
Suti 8,9 3,3 0
diRe 8,5 2,4 3
Butt 5,7 3,6 0
Alon 4,7 3,7 0
Webb 4,4 3,5 0
Mass 3,3 2,1 0

Slight changes for the three drivers with changed entries.