2 replies to this topic

[Makarias]

The standings after Germany:

Pos Name Tot Latest
1) Dispenser89 1010 101
= fisichella_2001 1010 101
= Grayson 1010 101
= jeze 1010 101
5) Makarias 1009 100
6) Viceroy 1008 100
7) arcsine 1007 98
= Costaz 1007 99
= scheivlak 1007 98
10) Brawn BGP 001 1004 97
= kNt 1004 101
12) Apex 1003 100
= kismet 1003 100
14) control 1002 99
15) Crazy Canuck 1001 99
= skylark68 1001 100
17) LB 996 99
18) mark f1 993 98
19) AcuraF1 992 91
20) Anderis 985 92
21) Estwald 957 77
22) paranoik0 949 70
23) Wlleiotl 939 68
24) KWSN -DSM 918 68
25) August 891 66

Perfect scores dropped by three as arcsine joined games legends Makarias and scheivlak into the missed points gang. Some properly weak scores appearing by now, which is always nice to see!

The entries


The Drivers' list

Driver Expect Surprise Beat
% % #
Suti 80,5 29,5 11
Vett 79,7 64,1 0
Butt 78,3 48,4 7
Hami 78,1 53,8 7
Petr 68,7 38,1 6
Koba 65,4 33,3 6
Webb 61,8 49,1 0
Alon 51,2 40,0 0
Pere 42,0 15,7 7
Mass 34,6 21,7 0
Rosb 31,7 23,6 0
Heid 31,0 21,0 0
Algu 29,8 10,5 1
Buem 27,7 9,4 1
Schu 24,7 14,2 0
diRe 16,9 4,9 3
Barr 6,4 4 0

Sutil's awesome race moves him right to the top of the expectations list.

EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2011 this is 25.


Guesses on P1-P5:

Hamilton Alonso Webber Vettel Massa
* Potential 359 * Potential 355 * Potential 364 * Potential 441 * Potential 287
* Forecast 255 August 324 August 282 * Forecast 410 August 285
control 248 kNt 307 Dispenser89 268 Costaz 336 control 216
Grayson 236 Costaz 305 * Forecast 264 arcsine 318 kNt 211
Crazy Canuck 230 jeze 289 AcuraF1 252 August 317 KWSN -DSM 200
AcuraF1 222 AcuraF1 279 paranoik0 245 AcuraF1 315 Anderis 194
fisichella_2001 209 scheivlak 278 Crazy Canuck 242 paranoik0 292 arcsine 194
jeze 209 Makarias 265 LB 242 Brawn BGP 001 281 Estwald 193
skylark68 205 Brawn BGP 001 260 kismet 239 Apex 280 kismet 189
Costaz 201 Anderis 259 Anderis 234 scheivlak 280 Viceroy 186
LB 200 Crazy Canuck 252 arcsine 231 Anderis 279 mark f1 185
Viceroy 196 LB 252 Viceroy 230 jeze 278 fisichella_2001 184
mark f1 195 Viceroy 251 Costaz 226 Makarias 272 Wlleiotl 180
Dispenser89 193 skylark68 249 Apex 225 skylark68 268 AcuraF1 176
Apex 185 paranoik0 247 fisichella_2001 221 Viceroy 267 scheivlak 173
Makarias 177 * Forecast 247 jeze 221 fisichella_2001 266 jeze 171
scheivlak 175 fisichella_2001 246 skylark68 220 kNt 265 skylark68 170
Brawn BGP 001 158 arcsine 242 mark f1 219 mark f1 265 Costaz 168
kismet 145 Estwald 240 kNt 215 Crazy Canuck 256 Brawn BGP 001 166
kNt 137 kismet 240 scheivlak 215 LB 256 Apex 160
* Current 134 Apex 235 Brawn BGP 001 210 Dispenser89 254 paranoik0 160
arcsine 131 mark f1 235 Estwald 210 Wlleiotl 250 Makarias 147
Anderis 129 KWSN -DSM 224 Makarias 208 kismet 247 Crazy Canuck 144
Estwald 113 control 223 control 200 Estwald 243 Dispenser89 144
August 109 Dispenser89 220 Wlleiotl 200 control 235 LB 144
paranoik0 100 Grayson 220 KWSN -DSM 195 Grayson 235 Grayson 140
Wlleiotl 100 Wlleiotl 200 Grayson 175 KWSN -DSM 223 * Forecast 118
KWSN -DSM 84 * Current 130 * Current 139 * Current 216 * Current 62

A handful more fell prey to Hamilton, who is on course for a 100% surprise along with Vettel.

Guesses on P6-P10:

Sutil Rosberg Schumacher Kobayashi Petrov
* Potential 243 * Potential 271 * Potential 257 * Potential 252 * Potential 257
Grayson 60 KWSN -DSM 194 KWSN -DSM 225 Wlleiotl 80 KWSN -DSM 83
Dispenser89 42 Estwald 188 Estwald 210 kNt 65 Grayson 78
Apex 35 Apex 175 August 173 paranoik0 60 control 77
* Forecast 34 Makarias 175 Makarias 155 Dispenser89 56 Wlleiotl 70
skylark68 33 Brawn BGP 001 169 mark f1 155 jeze 55 Estwald 68
control 31 paranoik0 168 paranoik0 155 * Forecast 51 jeze 65
Crazy Canuck 30 Viceroy 167 AcuraF1 149 arcsine 51 * Forecast 61
fisichella_2001 29 mark f1 165 Brawn BGP 001 146 scheivlak 49 Brawn BGP 001 54
jeze 29 kismet 155 Anderis 139 fisichella_2001 47 scheivlak 54
kismet 29 fisichella_2001 154 skylark68 136 Viceroy 46 kNt 53
Viceroy 24 Wlleiotl 150 Grayson 135 Brawn BGP 001 45 Dispenser89 51
arcsine 22 control 145 kismet 135 Makarias 44 paranoik0 48
kNt 21 Grayson 145 Viceroy 130 skylark68 44 LB 45
LB 20 skylark68 145 fisichella_2001 121 Estwald 43 arcsine 43
mark f1 20 Anderis 144 Wlleiotl 120 Apex 40 Makarias 42
* Current 18 AcuraF1 136 kNt 113 Costaz 40 Crazy Canuck 40
Makarias 17 August 130 control 112 Grayson 40 fisichella_2001 38
Costaz 16 LB 130 scheivlak 103 KWSN -DSM 40 AcuraF1 33
scheivlak 15 scheivlak 130 arcsine 101 Anderis 39 August 33
Anderis 15 Costaz 126 Costaz 101 kismet 36 Costaz 33
Estwald 15 arcsine 125 LB 100 * Current 27 * Current 32
Brawn BGP 001 14 Crazy Canuck 120 Apex 90 mark f1 25 Anderis 31
paranoik0 12 Dispenser89 114 Crazy Canuck 90 control 22 Viceroy 30
AcuraF1 10 jeze 100 Dispenser89 90 AcuraF1 20 Apex 25
Wlleiotl 10 * Forecast 87 * Forecast 61 Crazy Canuck 20 kismet 25
August 6 kNt 81 jeze 54 LB 15 skylark68 25
KWSN -DSM 4 * Current 46 * Current 32 August 10 mark f1 20

Sutil took a big leap in Germany and took some awesome scalps. Beating Grayson's guess still looks like a stretch, but the rest of us seem to be within reach. Kobayashi and Petrov look OK but need to continue scoring points, whereas the Mercedes team's season is looking like a failure already.

The PTPC forecast

Name Forecast +/-
Crazy Canuck 1652,4 3,2
AcuraF1 1632,4 15,3
Costaz 1630,3 11,2
jeze 1622,6 12,7
Dispenser89 1619,9 14,6
fisichella_2001 1611,0 21,7
LB 1609,3 11,2
skylark68 1604,5 23,5
Viceroy 1593,1 15,8
control 1568,8 27,4
Makarias 1554,3 11,2
Grayson 1550,5 13,3
scheivlak 1549,5 9,5
Apex 1548,7 12,0
arcsine 1548,5 5,4
mark f1 1533,3 0,6
Brawn BGP 001 1526,3 11,2
kismet 1481,5 11,3
kNt 1475,4 5,1
paranoik0 1472,8 8,0
Anderis 1456,5 9,5
August 1402,3 17,5
Estwald 1394,3 -2,1
Wlleiotl 1341,6 -7,2
KWSN -DSM 1296,3 -3,6

Positive tendencies again thanks mainly to improved forecasts for Ferrari.

[Makarias]

The standings after Hungary:

Pos Name Tot Latest
1) Dispenser89 1111 101
= Grayson 1111 101
= jeze 1111 101
4) Makarias 1110 101
5) Viceroy 1109 101
6) Costaz 1107 100
= fisichella_2001 1107 97
8) Apex 1104 101
9) control 1103 101
10) Brawn BGP 001 1101 97
= Crazy Canuck 1101 100
12) kismet 1100 97
13) scheivlak 1099 92
14) LB 1097 101
15) skylark68 1096 95
16) mark f1 1094 101
17) AcuraF1 1087 95
18) arcsine 1083 76
19) kNt 1071 67
20) Anderis 1046 61
21) Estwald 1019 62
22) paranoik0 1013 64
23) Wlleiotl 1000 61
24) KWSN -DSM 965 47
25) August 948 57

Three perfects left as fisichella_2001 misses a few points. Things can change quickly here: arcsine was still perfect after Britain!

The entries


The Drivers' list

Driver Expect Surprise Beat
% % #
Butt 96,2 59,6 10
Vett 86,3 69,4 1
Hami 85,1 58,6 9
Suti 80,5 29,5 11
Petr 68,7 38,1 6
diRe 67,8 19,5 9
Webb 66,2 52,7 0
Koba 65,4 33,3 6
Alon 57,2 44,6 0
Pere 42,0 15,7 7
Buem 41,5 14,1 2
Mass 39,1 24,5 0
Algu 33,2 11,6 1
Rosb 33,0 24,6 0
Heid 31,0 21,0 0
Schu 24,7 14,2 0
Barr 6,4 4,0 0

Button moves to the top and should beat his 100% expectation mark the next time he scores points. Vettel and Hamilton will make it soon too.

EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2011 this is 25.


Guesses on P1-P5:

Button Vettel Alonso Hamilton Webber
* Potential 334 * Potential 434 * Potential 345 * Potential 346 * Potential 349
* Forecast 231 * Forecast 404 August 324 * Forecast 252 August 282
Crazy Canuck 224 Costaz 336 kNt 307 control 248 Dispenser89 268
LB 204 arcsine 318 Costaz 305 Grayson 236 * Forecast 257
fisichella_2001 182 August 317 jeze 289 Crazy Canuck 230 AcuraF1 252
control 180 AcuraF1 315 AcuraF1 279 AcuraF1 222 paranoik0 245
skylark68 177 paranoik0 292 scheivlak 278 fisichella_2001 209 Crazy Canuck 242
mark f1 175 Brawn BGP 001 281 Makarias 265 jeze 209 LB 242
Viceroy 168 Apex 280 Brawn BGP 001 260 skylark68 205 kismet 239
Dispenser89 164 scheivlak 280 Anderis 259 Costaz 201 Anderis 234
AcuraF1 161 Anderis 279 Crazy Canuck 252 LB 200 arcsine 231
Grayson 160 jeze 278 LB 252 Viceroy 196 Viceroy 230
Makarias 158 Makarias 272 Viceroy 251 mark f1 195 Costaz 226
Costaz 150 skylark68 268 * Forecast 250 Dispenser89 193 Apex 225
jeze 145 Viceroy 267 skylark68 249 Apex 185 fisichella_2001 221
Brawn BGP 001 137 fisichella_2001 266 paranoik0 247 Makarias 177 jeze 221
Apex 135 kNt 265 fisichella_2001 246 scheivlak 175 skylark68 220
* Current 134 mark f1 265 arcsine 242 Brawn BGP 001 158 mark f1 219
kismet 131 Crazy Canuck 256 Estwald 240 * Current 146 kNt 215
scheivlak 125 LB 256 kismet 240 kismet 145 scheivlak 215
arcsine 121 Dispenser89 254 Apex 235 kNt 137 Brawn BGP 001 210
kNt 103 Wlleiotl 250 mark f1 235 arcsine 131 Estwald 210
Anderis 93 kismet 247 KWSN -DSM 224 Anderis 129 Makarias 208
paranoik0 88 Estwald 243 control 223 Estwald 113 control 200
KWSN -DSM 81 control 235 Dispenser89 220 August 109 Wlleiotl 200
Estwald 80 Grayson 235 Grayson 220 paranoik0 100 KWSN -DSM 195
Wlleiotl 80 * Current 234 Wlleiotl 200 Wlleiotl 100 Grayson 175
August 60 KWSN -DSM 223 * Current 145 KWSN -DSM 84 * Current 149

Vettel beat KWSN -DSM and more victims will follow soon.

Guesses on P6-P10:

Massa Di Resta Buemi Rosberg Alguersuari
August 285 * Potential 208 * Potential 212 * Potential 248 * Potential 210
* Potential 270 Grayson 40 KWSN -DSM 84 KWSN -DSM 194 KWSN -DSM 85
control 216 LB 32 kismet 77 Estwald 188 kismet 52
kNt 211 control 20 Wlleiotl 60 Apex 175 Apex 50
KWSN -DSM 200 jeze 20 Apex 40 Makarias 175 Wlleiotl 50
Anderis 194 Dispenser89 18 LB 40 Brawn BGP 001 169 paranoik0 47
arcsine 194 kNt 17 Costaz 37 paranoik0 168 LB 45
Estwald 193 arcsine 16 Anderis 34 Viceroy 167 Anderis 44
kismet 189 Apex 15 Estwald 31 mark f1 165 Crazy Canuck 35
Viceroy 186 scheivlak 14 Crazy Canuck 30 kismet 155 scheivlak 35
mark f1 185 * Forecast 14 Grayson 30 fisichella_2001 154 kNt 31
fisichella_2001 184 Viceroy 12 kNt 26 Wlleiotl 150 Grayson 30
Wlleiotl 180 Makarias 11 paranoik0 26 control 145 arcsine 25
AcuraF1 176 fisichella_2001 10 skylark68 26 Grayson 145 Estwald 25
scheivlak 173 mark f1 10 Makarias 23 skylark68 145 Viceroy 23
jeze 171 paranoik0 10 * Forecast 21 Anderis 144 Dispenser89 22
skylark68 170 Brawn BGP 001 9 arcsine 20 AcuraF1 136 Makarias 21
Costaz 168 kismet 9 mark f1 20 August 130 Brawn BGP 001 20
Brawn BGP 001 166 * Current 8 scheivlak 19 LB 130 Costaz 20
Apex 160 Costaz 7 AcuraF1 17 scheivlak 130 mark f1 20
paranoik0 160 Crazy Canuck 7 August 15 Costaz 126 skylark68 20
Makarias 147 Estwald 6 Dispenser89 14 arcsine 125 jeze 18
Crazy Canuck 144 Anderis 5 jeze 14 Crazy Canuck 120 * Forecast 17
Dispenser89 144 Wlleiotl 5 Viceroy 14 Dispenser89 114 AcuraF1 12
LB 144 KWSN -DSM 2 control 12 jeze 100 fisichella_2001 11
Grayson 140 AcuraF1 0 * Current 12 * Forecast 83 control 10
* Forecast 121 August 0 fisichella_2001 8 kNt 81 * Current 10
* Current 70 skylark68 0 Brawn BGP 001 6 * Current 48 August 3

Paul di Resta didn't score points in many races but did a comeback in style, taking several victims in the process. Buemi and Alguersuari are working hard in the midfield and I bet they will cause a few more upsets before the season is over.

The PTPC forecast

Name Forecast +/-
Crazy Canuck 1668,2 15,8
Costaz 1629,2 -1,1
AcuraF1 1624,2 -8,2
jeze 1616,7 -5,9
LB 1615,0 5,7
fisichella_2001 1603,4 -7,6
Dispenser89 1600,7 -19,2
skylark68 1595,6 -8,9
Viceroy 1591,5 -1,6
control 1559,8 -9,0
Makarias 1556,0 1,7
scheivlak 1549,7 0,2
Apex 1546,5 -2,2
arcsine 1544,3 -4,2
Grayson 1542,7 -7,8
mark f1 1531,0 -2,3
Brawn BGP 001 1520,3 -6,0
kNt 1479,5 4,1
kismet 1477,5 -4,0
paranoik0 1465,2 -7,6
Anderis 1452,0 -4,5
August 1385,5 -16,8
Estwald 1381,8 -12,5
Wlleiotl 1323,5 -18,1
KWSN -DSM 1283,0 -13,3

McLarens and Vettel doing well is not good for the forecasts, although the Ferraris balanced things out a bit.

[KWSN - DSM]

I need to take of the rose cloured biased glasses next season, before I post my guess.