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Records are there to be broken. By Vettel...


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#1 thiscocks

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Posted 28 September 2011 - 10:56

Following on from Autosports article on Vettels possible record breaking season there was a point missing when it said he could beat Mansells, Schumachers and Sennas records- all their records were from either 16,17 (and in 2004 case) 18 races. This ofcourse makes comparing season stats difficult and can only be accurately done as percentages over the season.

Article:

Sebastian Vettel could break most of Formula 1's long-standing records if his relentless form continues for the rest of the year. Michele Merlino analyses his astonishing success plus the rest of the stats from the Singapore Grand Prix
By Michele Merlino
FORIX collaborator
The 2011 Formula 1 season has been about one man, and you don't have to guess too hard to work out who that is. In Singapore Sebastian Vettel's remarkable year continued as he romped to victory that put him on the brink of a second world title.

It's therefore time to chart Vettel's success this year and analyse the staggering number of all-time records the young German can still win should his steamroller of success continue for the rest of the season.


Vettel is well on the way to becoming an all-time great © sutton-images.com

Vettel chasing records

Vettel took his ninth win of the year at Marina Bay; the third highest total in F1 history, equalling Nigel Mansell's achievement of 1992. Only Michael Schumacher has won more in a single season, the German taking 11 victories in 2002 and 13 in '04. With five races to go, it is possible for Vettel to break Schumacher's record.

Only three drivers have had more pole positions in a single season than Vettel, thanks to the German's 11th of 2011 in Singapore. Mansell holds the record with 14 from '92, while Ayrton Senna was on pole 13 times in both '88 and '89 and Alain Prost repeated the Brazilian's achievement in '93.

Eight of Vettel's wins this year have come from pole position; the same number recorded by Schumacher in '04. Mansell's nine from '92 remains the record for now.


So to beat Mansells 9 win record from 16 starts in '92 he needs to win 11 races to beat the 56% record. 2 of the remaining 5 races.

To beat Schumachers all time record of 13 wins in 2004 he needs to win 14 races. So 4 of the last 5 races.

To beat Mansells pole record of 14 (from 16 starts) he needs 17 poles, so he cant actually beat Mansells record percentage-wise.

He can still just beat Sennas 13 poles from 16 start record if he gets pole in all of the remaining races. Would be 84% v 81%.


Thought I'd clear that up,
Tim

Edited by thiscocks, 28 September 2011 - 15:45.


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#2 David McKinney

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Posted 28 September 2011 - 11:31

I initially bridled at the thread title in a Nostalgia forum, but you make an excellent and very interesting point

(I've always been a percentage man, myself - puts Fangio and Clark in a better light against the modern drivers than merely totalling wins!)

#3 scags

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Posted 28 September 2011 - 11:42

He's having a great year, and beating the snot out of his teammate, but the extra races per year makes it harder to compare.

#4 D-Type

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Posted 28 September 2011 - 12:03

Because of the changing numbers the only sensible comparison tools are those expressed as a %age of the potential maximum, whether wins, poles, podium positions, fastest laps etc and whether over a season or a career.

What is to a large extent independent of the variable factors ( number of races, points per race, number of points to drop) etc is the date on which a driver clinched the championship. I can't remember who holds thr record for earliest,but I think it has been achieved by Monza/ mid-September on at least one occasion. So Vettel has missed this one by 1 point.

#5 arttidesco

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Posted 28 September 2011 - 12:14

Because of the changing numbers the only sensible comparison tools are those expressed as a %age of the potential maximum, whether wins, poles, podium positions, fastest laps etc and whether over a season or a career.

What is to a large extent independent of the variable factors ( number of races, points per race, number of points to drop) etc is the date on which a driver clinched the championship. I can't remember who holds thr record for earliest,but I think it has been achieved by Monza/ mid-September on at least one occasion. So Vettel has missed this one by 1 point.


I thought Mansell clinching the title at the Hungarian GP was the earliest the championship was sealed possibly equalled by Schumacher in his Ferrari days ?

Anyone keeping tabs on this years scoring using any of the older points scoring systems ? :stoned:

I believe Vettel would have won the championship a few races ago using BE's medal system :drunk:

#6 thiscocks

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Posted 28 September 2011 - 12:16

Yes , Mansell did it in Hungary 92, so mid August. Schumacher clinched it the earliest I think in 2002 at the German gp in late July.

I guess even going from precentages it is harder to get records over alonger season so Vetel is doing well to get close to the all time records. I think He will beat Mansells win percentage from 92 and possibly Schumachers from 2002 but not schumachers from 2004.

I think he has a couple of poles left in him too but cant see him getting a pole in all of the remaining races.

#7 Kpy

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Posted 28 September 2011 - 12:23

I think the earliest date on which the title was clinched is 16 July - 1955 British Grand Prix at Aintree, JMF.

#8 Roger Clark

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Posted 28 September 2011 - 13:48

I think the earliest date on which the title was clinched is 16 July - 1955 British Grand Prix at Aintree, JMF.

Helped, of course, by there being only one more race.

#9 Kpy

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Posted 28 September 2011 - 14:01

Helped, of course, by there being only one more race.

Of course.
I was really only replying to:

I can't remember who holds thr record for earliest,but I think it has been achieved by Monza/ mid-September on at least one occasion. So Vettel has missed this one by 1 point.


Edited by Kpy, 28 September 2011 - 14:01.


#10 D-Type

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Posted 28 September 2011 - 14:19

This all just emphasises how silly it is to try and produce comparison statistics when the base data varies so much.

But no matter how you measure it there isn't really a winning run to compare with Ascari in 1952-53


#11 Roger Clark

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Posted 28 September 2011 - 15:27

You also have to apply the Jenkinson test: "who did he beat?" Ascari's opposition in 1952 was very poor: only his team mates or a works Maserati, preferably driven by Fangio, were serious contenders (also Gordini when they could). Fangio didn't appear in any championship races that year, and Maserati only competed in Italy. Bonetto raced in Germany but few would expect him to challenge for a win, Things were harder in 1953 but Vettel's opposition this year has been very good by any standards.

#12 stevewf1

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Posted 28 September 2011 - 16:09

You also have to apply the Jenkinson test: "who did he beat?" Ascari's opposition in 1952 was very poor: only his team mates or a works Maserati, preferably driven by Fangio, were serious contenders (also Gordini when they could). Fangio didn't appear in any championship races that year, and Maserati only competed in Italy. Bonetto raced in Germany but few would expect him to challenge for a win, Things were harder in 1953 but Vettel's opposition this year has been very good by any standards.


Yes. Senna and Prost had each other to contend with and Mansell was in the fray at times - and Piquet, too... Michael Schumacher was pretty much all on his own except for a spell when Hakkinen was in the mix...



#13 RStock

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Posted 28 September 2011 - 16:54

Things were harder in 1953 but Vettel's opposition this year has been very good by any standards.


Well, there are certainly plenty of other drivers out there that are as good as Vettel if not perhaps better, but it really always reverts back to equipment. Was it Mark Donohue, or maybe Vic Elford who spoke about the "unfair advantage" meaning a car that was highly superior to the others in competition. It's what they all strive for really and what Vettel has now.

While watching the Singapore race the other day I kept thinking they should give Vettel a drive through penalty every lap just to give the others a chance. The rest of the field are running for first in class.


#14 stevewf1

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Posted 28 September 2011 - 17:33

Well, there are certainly plenty of other drivers out there that are as good as Vettel if not perhaps better, but it really always reverts back to equipment. Was it Mark Donohue, or maybe Vic Elford who spoke about the "unfair advantage" meaning a car that was highly superior to the others in competition. It's what they all strive for really and what Vettel has now.

While watching the Singapore race the other day I kept thinking they should give Vettel a drive through penalty every lap just to give the others a chance. The rest of the field are running for first in class.


That was Mark Donohue. I also remember him saying his cars used a material he called unobtanium... :)

Edited by stevewf1, 28 September 2011 - 17:34.


#15 D-Type

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Posted 28 September 2011 - 20:16

Well, there are certainly plenty of other drivers out there that are as good as Vettel if not perhaps better, but it really always reverts back to equipment. Was it Mark Donohue, or maybe Vic Elford who spoke about the "unfair advantage" meaning a car that was highly superior to the others in competition. It's what they all strive for really and what Vettel has now.

While watching the Singapore race the other day I kept thinking they should give Vettel a drive through penalty every lap just to give the others a chance. The rest of the field are running for first in class.

Yes and no.

Granted, the Singapore grid is a classic case of "the animals going into the ark", ie they almost line up two-by-two, confirming that at present the car:driver balance is firmly weighted towards the car.

But Vettel is good. He is the only driver good enough to be selected by Red Bull. He is one of the select half dozen or so drivers to have taken back-to-back championships. It's not uncommon for the best driver to end up in the best car. etc etc. In time when we are in a position to look back at his career we'll be able to form a clearer opinion of just how good he is.

But he has eclipsed Webber this year.

#16 arttidesco

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Posted 28 September 2011 - 20:47

He is one of the select half dozen or so drivers to have taken back-to-back championships.


I believe Sebastian is one point away from becoming the ninth driver to achieve this feat in 61 years so certainly in the running for driver of the decade.

#17 RStock

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Posted 28 September 2011 - 21:03

Yes and no.

Granted, the Singapore grid is a classic case of "the animals going into the ark", ie they almost line up two-by-two, confirming that at present the car:driver balance is firmly weighted towards the car.

But Vettel is good. He is the only driver good enough to be selected by Red Bull. He is one of the select half dozen or so drivers to have taken back-to-back championships. It's not uncommon for the best driver to end up in the best car. etc etc. In time when we are in a position to look back at his career we'll be able to form a clearer opinion of just how good he is.

But he has eclipsed Webber this year.


Yes. I didn't mean to imply Vettel isn't good. I like Vettel, a lot. I Have ever since he was a test driver for BMW. The kid has a lot of talent and a good head on his shoulders. But I think if you wanted to match up the best driver with the best car right now, you would need to put Alonso in the Red Bull.

#18 ensign14

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Posted 28 September 2011 - 21:07

(I've always been a percentage man, myself - puts Fangio and Clark in a better light against the modern drivers than merely totalling wins!)

Depends on what you include. If you throw in races against fields that can be considered world class by the standards of the time - sportscars in the fifties, Formula 2 and Tasman in the sixties, and non-title races in both decades - you can get Fangio and Clark easily into the 50+ wins bracket. Indeed Clark averages over 10 per year for most of the sixties.

#19 David McKinney

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Posted 28 September 2011 - 21:18

Yes, that's an equally valid way of looking at it

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#20 Ray Bell

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Posted 28 September 2011 - 23:50

Aren't the points a little less remunerative for wins these days?

That is, doesn't a second place garner a greater percentage of points compared to a win than it did in the 9-6-4-3-2-1 days?

#21 Roger Clark

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Posted 29 September 2011 - 07:16

Aren't the points a little less remunerative for wins these days?

That is, doesn't a second place garner a greater percentage of points compared to a win than it did in the 9-6-4-3-2-1 days?

Slightly. Second today is 72% of a win. With 9-6 it was 67%.

#22 Stephen W

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Posted 29 September 2011 - 10:39

I guess even going from precentages it is harder to get records over alonger season so Vetel is doing well to get close to the all time records.


I must disagree; when a driver has a far superior car it doesn't really matter if there are 5, 10 or 20 Grand Prixs in the season they will do well. Undoubtedly the Red Bull has been the best car over the past few seasons. As for Vettel beating his team mate then I would expect him to have done so as Vettel gets better and better with experience whilst Webber's talents will be deminishing.

I always think that these sort of "what ifs" is somewhat like comparing apples and grapefruit - a bit of a pointless exercise!

:drunk:



#23 RStock

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Posted 29 September 2011 - 17:12

I always think that these sort of "what ifs" is somewhat like comparing apples and grapefruit - a bit of a pointless exercise!

:drunk:


Very pointless. I've always had the opinion that a good driver would still be good no matter what time he competed in.

#24 Ross Stonefeld

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Posted 29 September 2011 - 17:54

He's having a great year, and beating the snot out of his teammate, but the extra races per year makes it harder to compare.


Would the inverse have any logic? If you are champion in an 8-10 race season is that worth the same as winning in an 17-20 year?


#25 scags

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Posted 29 September 2011 - 20:13

Would the inverse have any logic? If you are champion in an 8-10 race season is that worth the same as winning in an 17-20 year?

Well, outright records for most poles, wins, laps lead, etc are easier to set with more races. Other wise, a championship is a championship, irregardless of the numbers.


#26 thiscocks

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Posted 29 September 2011 - 20:24

Well, outright records for most poles, wins, laps lead, etc are easier to set with more races. Other wise, a championship is a championship, irregardless of the numbers.

I agree. Although if it were still 16 races vettel would still be in line for some records. If it was 10 races he would have won it ages ago (but Bernie wouldn't have as much money)

#27 AlanR

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Posted 30 September 2011 - 10:03

Anyone keeping tabs on this years scoring using any of the older points scoring systems ? :stoned:


Posted Image

#28 Tim Murray

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Posted 30 September 2011 - 10:35

Thanks Alan. Fascinating how little effect on the top positions the various scoring systems have.

#29 D-Type

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Posted 30 September 2011 - 10:42

For completeness the scoring should include the "Best n from N" criteria. But the effect would still be the same - the top positions are hardly affected.

I think that the top places would be the same for a "medals" system- number of wins, ties decided by number of 2nd places, ....

#30 Tim Murray

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Posted 30 September 2011 - 11:02

I think that the top places would be the same for a "medals" system- number of wins, ties decided by number of 2nd places, ....

There would be a slight change - Hamilton with his two wins would move into third place ahead of Alonso and Webber.

#31 thiscocks

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Posted 30 September 2011 - 11:08

Good stuff.. Still prefer the '91 system. Only 13 scorers with that...

#32 arttidesco

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Posted 30 September 2011 - 11:13

Posted Image


Thanks Alan, I had a suspicion there would not be much change what ever the scoring system there would not be much change :up:

Which makes me wonder why they bugger about with the points anyway, apart from the extra half a column inch these changes generate in the press. I wonder how long it will be before the top 20 finishers are awarded points ?

#33 Geoff E

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Posted 30 September 2011 - 11:56

Interesting that the gap between Vettel and Button is approximately six wins ... but when you use the 2010 system - introduced to give greater reward for winning - Vettel leads by only five wins.

#34 ensign14

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Posted 30 September 2011 - 11:58

Interesting that the gap between Vettel and Button is approximately six wins ... but when you use the 2010 system - introduced to give greater reward for winning - Vettel leads by only five wins.

I think the 2010 would have given Graham Hill the 1965 world title. That shows you the worth of the current system.

#35 D-Type

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Posted 30 September 2011 - 14:58

I think the 2010 would have given Graham Hill the 1965 world title. That shows you the worth of the current system.

The "best n from N" effect. Clark had scored a maximum under the rules. Surely, under different rules he would have driven differently in the last few races to secure the championship
Which just shows the futility of trying to compare apples and pears.

#36 elansprint72

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Posted 30 September 2011 - 21:28

Cassius Marcellus Clay, Jr. Nuff said.