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Place The Points Competition 2011 after Abu Dhabi


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#1 Makarias

Makarias
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Posted 20 November 2011 - 18:00

The standings after Abu Dhabi:
Pos Name Tot Latest
1) Crazy Canuck 1631 79
2) Costaz 1592 48
3) LB 1585 56
4) AcuraF1 1579 74
5) fisichella_2001 1563 50
6) skylark68 1556 49
7) Viceroy 1555 52
8) jeze 1541 44
9) Dispenser89 1536 41
10) Apex 1523 41
11) mark f1 1510 32
12) Makarias 1508 43
13) control 1507 50
14) arcsine 1505 50
15) Grayson 1499 56
16) scheivlak 1494 43
17) Brawn BGP 001 1464 43
18) kismet 1448 50
19) kNt 1426 41
20) Anderis 1419 55
21) paranoik0 1405 55
22) August 1337 54
23) Estwald 1331 38
24) Wlleiotl 1270 25
25) KWSN -DSM 1236 25
Crazy Canuck pulls out a big lead going into Brazil; AcuraF1 is the only one anywhere near in points scoring for this round. Vettel's DNF

didn't add many sparks to the results really...

The entries


The Drivers' list
Driver Expect Surprise Beat
% % #
Senn 1666,7 50,0 24
diRe 194,9 56,1 23
Butt 183,1 113,3 25
Suti 152,1 55,7 22
Vett 137,9 111,0 25
Hami 132,4 91,2 22
Webb 103,6 82,3 17
Alon 96,6 75,4 10
Algu 86,2 30,2 14
Petr 77,3 42,9 9
Pere 73,5 27,5 10
Koba 67,8 34,6 6
Mass 60,3 37,8 0
Schu 58,7 33,6 1
Rosb 57,1 42,6 1
Buem 51,9 17,6 6
Heid 31,0 21,0 0
Barr 6,4 4,0 0
Mald 4,5 1,6 0
Mark Webber becomes the seventh driver of the season to match the expectations.

EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off

to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver

has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for

2011 this is 25.


Guesses on P1-P5:
Hamilton Alonso Button Webber Massa
* Potential 252 August 324 * Potential 280 August 282 August 285
control 248 kNt 307 * Forecast 269 Dispenser89 268 control 216
* Forecast 240 Costaz 305 * Current 255 * Potential 258 kNt 211
Grayson 236 jeze 289 Crazy Canuck 224 AcuraF1 252 KWSN -DSM 200
Crazy Canuck 230 AcuraF1 279 LB 204 * Forecast 246 Anderis 194
* Current 227 scheivlak 278 fisichella_2001 182 paranoik0 245 arcsine 194
AcuraF1 222 * Potential 270 control 180 Crazy Canuck 242 Estwald 193
fisichella_2001 209 Makarias 265 skylark68 177 LB 242 kismet 189
jeze 209 Brawn BGP 001 260 mark f1 175 kismet 239 Viceroy 186
skylark68 205 Anderis 259 Viceroy 168 Anderis 234 mark f1 185
Costaz 201 * Forecast 259 Dispenser89 164 * Current 233 fisichella_2001 184
LB 200 Crazy Canuck 252 AcuraF1 161 arcsine 231 Wlleiotl 180
Viceroy 196 LB 252 Grayson 160 Viceroy 230 AcuraF1 176
mark f1 195 Viceroy 251 Makarias 158 Costaz 226 scheivlak 173
Dispenser89 193 skylark68 249 Costaz 150 Apex 225 jeze 171
Apex 185 paranoik0 247 jeze 145 fisichella_2001 221 skylark68 170
Makarias 177 fisichella_2001 246 Brawn BGP 001 137 jeze 221 Costaz 168
scheivlak 175 * Current 245 Apex 135 skylark68 220 Brawn BGP 001 166
Brawn BGP 001 158 arcsine 242 kismet 131 mark f1 219 Apex 160
kismet 145 Estwald 240 scheivlak 125 kNt 215 paranoik0 160
kNt 137 kismet 240 arcsine 121 scheivlak 215 Makarias 147
arcsine 131 Apex 235 kNt 103 Brawn BGP 001 210 Crazy Canuck 144
Anderis 129 mark f1 235 Anderis 93 Estwald 210 Dispenser89 144
Estwald 113 KWSN -DSM 224 paranoik0 88 Makarias 208 LB 144
August 109 control 223 KWSN -DSM 81 control 200 Grayson 140
paranoik0 100 Dispenser89 220 Estwald 80 Wlleiotl 200 * Potential 133
Wlleiotl 100 Grayson 220 Wlleiotl 80 KWSN -DSM 195 * Forecast 114
KWSN -DSM 84 Wlleiotl 200 August 60 Grayson 175 * Current 108
Hamilton needs a win in Brazil to make it a 100% surprise; not unrealistic. Alonso and Webber should bothe end up pretty high in their

lists, while Massa is a clear disappointment.


Guesses on P6-P10:
Rosberg Schumacher Sutil Di Resta Kobayashi
KWSN -DSM 194 KWSN -DSM 225 Grayson 60 * Potential 48 Wlleiotl 80
Estwald 188 Estwald 210 * Potential 59 Grayson 40 kNt 65
Apex 175 August 173 Dispenser89 42 LB 32 paranoik0 60
Makarias 175 Makarias 155 * Forecast 36 * Forecast 24 Dispenser89 56
Brawn BGP 001 169 mark f1 155 Apex 35 * Current 23 jeze 55
paranoik0 168 paranoik0 155 * Current 34 control 20 * Potential 53
Viceroy 167 AcuraF1 149 skylark68 33 jeze 20 arcsine 51
mark f1 165 Brawn BGP 001 146 control 31 Dispenser89 18 scheivlak 49
kismet 155 Anderis 139 Crazy Canuck 30 kNt 17 fisichella_2001 47
fisichella_2001 154 skylark68 136 fisichella_2001 29 arcsine 16 Viceroy 46
Wlleiotl 150 Grayson 135 jeze 29 Apex 15 Brawn BGP 001 45
control 145 kismet 135 kismet 29 scheivlak 14 Makarias 44
Grayson 145 Viceroy 130 Viceroy 24 Viceroy 12 skylark68 44
skylark68 145 fisichella_2001 121 arcsine 22 Makarias 11 Estwald 43
Anderis 144 Wlleiotl 120 kNt 21 fisichella_2001 10 Apex 40
AcuraF1 136 kNt 113 LB 20 mark f1 10 Costaz 40
August 130 control 112 mark f1 20 paranoik0 10 Grayson 40
LB 130 scheivlak 103 Makarias 17 Brawn BGP 001 9 KWSN -DSM 40
scheivlak 130 * Potential 101 Costaz 16 kismet 9 Anderis 39
Costaz 126 arcsine 101 scheivlak 15 Costaz 7 kismet 36
arcsine 125 Costaz 101 Anderis 15 Crazy Canuck 7 * Forecast 30
Crazy Canuck 120 LB 100 Estwald 15 Estwald 6 * Current 28
Dispenser89 114 Apex 90 Brawn BGP 001 14 Anderis 5 mark f1 25
* Potential 108 Crazy Canuck 90 paranoik0 12 Wlleiotl 5 control 22
jeze 100 Dispenser89 90 AcuraF1 10 KWSN -DSM 2 AcuraF1 20
* Forecast 88 * Forecast 80 Wlleiotl 10 AcuraF1 0 Crazy Canuck 20
* Current 83 * Current 76 August 6 August 0 LB 15
kNt 81 jeze 54 KWSN -DSM 4 skylark68 0 August 10
The Force Indias are both high on their lists and so the team's season must be seen as satisfying. Kobayashi has had a miserable second

half of the season and must ultimately be disappointed, just like the Mercedes team.

The PTPC forecast
Name Forecast +/-
Crazy Canuck 1671,3 7,5
Costaz 1625,1 11,1
LB 1623,6 3,8
AcuraF1 1623,4 10,7
fisichella_2001 1584,6 7,2
skylark68 1580,2 6,0
Viceroy 1579,6 7,2
Dispenser89 1572,2 5,4
jeze 1571,7 7,0
Apex 1545,6 5,3
Makarias 1543,8 8,7
control 1538,6 19,4
Grayson 1534,8 15,0
scheivlak 1531,2 6,5
mark f1 1527,8 6,9
arcsine 1527,2 3,2
Brawn BGP 001 1498,9 9,0
kismet 1475,6 3,8
kNt 1458,6 2,7
Anderis 1455,2 8,7
paranoik0 1442,6 1,6
August 1380,5 11,7
Estwald 1353,2 3,2
Wlleiotl 1293,6 1,6
KWSN -DSM 1258,8 2,4
Forecasts improved with Vettel not hogging any points. Crazy Canuck's lead is looking so solid that any further analysis seems like a

waste of time.