Jump to content


Photo

F1 champ odds in 2012- who will win?


  • Please log in to reply
21 replies to this topic

Poll: Who do you think will win in 2012 (60 member(s) have cast votes)

Which driver will be WDC

  1. Vettel (14 votes [23.33%])

    Percentage of vote: 23.33%

  2. Hamilton (12 votes [20.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 20.00%

  3. Alonso (9 votes [15.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 15.00%

  4. Button (7 votes [11.67%])

    Percentage of vote: 11.67%

  5. Webber (1 votes [1.67%])

    Percentage of vote: 1.67%

  6. Massa (2 votes [3.33%])

    Percentage of vote: 3.33%

  7. Rosberg (2 votes [3.33%])

    Percentage of vote: 3.33%

  8. Schumacher (1 votes [1.67%])

    Percentage of vote: 1.67%

  9. Reikkonen (7 votes [11.67%])

    Percentage of vote: 11.67%

  10. Grossjean (5 votes [8.33%])

    Percentage of vote: 8.33%

Which team will win the WCC

  1. Red Bull (23 votes [38.33%])

    Percentage of vote: 38.33%

  2. McLaren (24 votes [40.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 40.00%

  3. Ferrari (5 votes [8.33%])

    Percentage of vote: 8.33%

  4. Mercedes (2 votes [3.33%])

    Percentage of vote: 3.33%

  5. Lotus (5 votes [8.33%])

    Percentage of vote: 8.33%

  6. Another (1 votes [1.67%])

    Percentage of vote: 1.67%

Vote Guests cannot vote

#1 WhiteBlue

WhiteBlue
  • Member

  • 2,138 posts
  • Joined: July 10

Posted 03 January 2012 - 22:30

I'm opening the traditional betting thread with the Betfair driver odds from January 3rd.

Posted Image

The market is less than €8.000 but is has the benefit of no information about the cars.

Vettel is the run away favourite of the betting money to defend his title. It looks like Ferrari is expected to produce a slightly better car than they had in 2011. But that is probably always expected. I don't believe it will materialize.

Mercedes is firmly seen on number four position of the pecking order with no difference between Schumacher and Rosberg.

Hamilton is expected to beat his team mate again after his annus horribilis in 2011.

Let's see how the picture will change over testing and when the results of the fly aways come in.

Edited by WhiteBlue, 03 January 2012 - 22:31.


Advertisement

#2 olliek88

olliek88
  • Member

  • 4,049 posts
  • Joined: January 10

Posted 03 January 2012 - 22:31

I'll wait till testing before posting my vote thank you very much!

:p

#3 Kvothe

Kvothe
  • Member

  • 6,852 posts
  • Joined: November 10

Posted 03 January 2012 - 22:33

^^Wheres the fun in that.

Lewis, McLaren. You read it here first.


Edit: It seems i actually voted Red Bull, massive Freudian slip.

Edited by Kvothe, 03 January 2012 - 22:34.


#4 Concorde

Concorde
  • Member

  • 782 posts
  • Joined: April 11

Posted 03 January 2012 - 22:35

That's better although now you have two threads on the same subject. :lol:

#5 olliek88

olliek88
  • Member

  • 4,049 posts
  • Joined: January 10

Posted 03 January 2012 - 22:36

^^Wheres the fun in that.

Lewis, McLaren. You read it here first.


Edit: It seems i actually voted Red Bull, massive Freudian slip.


Alright, i'll hop off my fence and take a gamble! :p

Rosberg, Mercedes.

 ;)

#6 Kvothe

Kvothe
  • Member

  • 6,852 posts
  • Joined: November 10

Posted 03 January 2012 - 22:41

Alright, i'll hop off my fence and take a gamble! :p

Rosberg, Mercedes.

;)


I'm smiling now, but i can't imagine what my reaction would be, if this turned out to be correct.

Edited by Kvothe, 03 January 2012 - 22:41.


#7 fieraku

fieraku
  • Member

  • 5,304 posts
  • Joined: June 11

Posted 03 January 2012 - 22:43

Massa/Lotus(the green one)
Yep!

#8 FSA

FSA
  • Member

  • 530 posts
  • Joined: September 09

Posted 03 January 2012 - 22:59

Seems bizarre to post a poll like this when we haven't even seen a single 2012 car being driven yet. Weird !!!

Edited by FSA, 03 January 2012 - 23:00.


#9 Zava

Zava
  • Member

  • 5,070 posts
  • Joined: September 10

Posted 03 January 2012 - 23:01

Reikkonen for WDC, and Grossjean for WCC.

#10 TFLB

TFLB
  • Member

  • 1,616 posts
  • Joined: July 10

Posted 03 January 2012 - 23:06

Lol at how they seem to rate Hamilton's chances. Haven't they realised (like most here have) that he's lost it?

#11 noikeee

noikeee
  • Member

  • 9,830 posts
  • Joined: February 06

Posted 03 January 2012 - 23:06

Unfortunately I can't see things changing wildly, Red Bull was pretty dominant this season, the rules are almost unchanged, and it'll take a large step from Ferrari or Mac to overcome them. Moreover the team-mate battle at Red Bull was very one-sided last year, very unlikely it'll go the other way. Voted Vettel and Red Bull for an hat-trick of titles.

Puzzled that Ricciardo and Vergne have lower odds than Grosjean, di Resta, Maldonado, the Sauber guys, and equal odds for Hulk. I agree they might very well end up ahead of all of them in the standings, but Toro Rosso is never going to be allowed by Red Bull to win a championship, whereas Renault (erm, Lotus), Sauber, Williams and Force India, while it's extremely unlikely, they could still come up with THE car. All it takes is a major breakthrough.

#12 noikeee

noikeee
  • Member

  • 9,830 posts
  • Joined: February 06

Posted 03 January 2012 - 23:11

Lol at how they seem to rate Hamilton's chances. Haven't they realised (like most here have) that he's lost it?


Well, Hamilton's still slightly quicker on average than Button, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him come back on top next year. Just because he was in a lot of incidents this season and Button was in pretty much none, doesn't mean that it'll happen always. Hamilton is certainly more incident-prone but I think this year was so bad he's unlikely to repeat it.

#13 TFLB

TFLB
  • Member

  • 1,616 posts
  • Joined: July 10

Posted 03 January 2012 - 23:16

Well, Hamilton's still slightly quicker on average than Button, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him come back on top next year. Just because he was in a lot of incidents this season and Button was in pretty much none, doesn't mean that it'll happen always. Hamilton is certainly more incident-prone but I think this year was so bad he's unlikely to repeat it.

But he was almost as bad in 2010 as well. In fact, it seems to me that since 2007 he has declined - even his championship year in 2008 was not entirely convincing. This year, he was only really quicker than Button in qualifying. In the races it tended to be the other way round.

#14 fieraku

fieraku
  • Member

  • 5,304 posts
  • Joined: June 11

Posted 03 January 2012 - 23:17

Lol at how they seem to rate Hamilton's chances. Haven't they realised (like most here have) that he's lost it?

I think they don't use "Forum logic" or Webber&Massa wouldn't be on that list,at all.

#15 TFLB

TFLB
  • Member

  • 1,616 posts
  • Joined: July 10

Posted 03 January 2012 - 23:20

I think they don't use "Forum logic" or Webber&Massa wouldn't be on that list,at all.

At least Webber and Massa are suitably low - ie, behind their teammates.

#16 fieraku

fieraku
  • Member

  • 5,304 posts
  • Joined: June 11

Posted 03 January 2012 - 23:22

At least Webber and Massa are suitably low - ie, behind their teammates.

Yet they're ahead of much better drivers.Isn't that "your point"?

#17 TFLB

TFLB
  • Member

  • 1,616 posts
  • Joined: July 10

Posted 03 January 2012 - 23:25

Yet they're ahead of much better drivers.Isn't that "your point"?

No. Because given the cars they're likely to have, they still have a much greater chance of winning the championship than the likes of Grosjean, even though I feel that Webber and Massa are amongst the worst drivers on the grid.

#18 fieraku

fieraku
  • Member

  • 5,304 posts
  • Joined: June 11

Posted 03 January 2012 - 23:30

No. Because given the cars they're likely to have, they still have a much greater chance of winning the championship than the likes of Grosjean, even though I feel that Webber and Massa are amongst the worst drivers on the grid.

Read that long&hard and therein lies your answer.

#19 noikeee

noikeee
  • Member

  • 9,830 posts
  • Joined: February 06

Posted 03 January 2012 - 23:43

But he was almost as bad in 2010 as well. In fact, it seems to me that since 2007 he has declined - even his championship year in 2008 was not entirely convincing. This year, he was only really quicker than Button in qualifying. In the races it tended to be the other way round.


That's actually an interesting point, he's certainly not developed much since his wonder rookie season. I thought by now he'd matured into the new Schumacher, clearly not. However it's easy to forget just how badly he hammered Kovalainen, who is now rated high again, in both 2008 and 2009 - and 2009 he pulled some incredible performances with a rubbish car. And I don't agree Button was overall quicker in the races, although he was a lot closer than I expected and did look quicker occasionally.

I think Hamilton is going through a rough mental period and when he's recovered he'll be mega again, what remains to be seen is if he can recover his mojo in the current situation at McLaren or if he'll need a move to stir him up again. I'd say it's almost 50/50 between him and Button next season, but I'd just about tip Lewis to win.

Advertisement

#20 TFLB

TFLB
  • Member

  • 1,616 posts
  • Joined: July 10

Posted 04 January 2012 - 05:45

Read that long&hard and therein lies your answer.

I have and it doesn't. Sorry.

#21 apoka

apoka
  • Member

  • 3,611 posts
  • Joined: May 09

Posted 04 January 2012 - 11:03

Let's see how the picture will change over testing and when the results of the fly aways come in.

In the early stages, it is also worth having a look at how much betting money was spent for each driver. If the value is low, then the market is too small to be a good approximation of the winning odds:

Vettel: €3.454
Alonso: €1.887
Hamilton: €575
Button: €727
Webber: €398
Massa: €38
Schumacher: €137
Rosberg: €146
Räikönen: €138

Anything below is less than 100€, so not really worth discussing about why driver A is higher than driver B outside of the top group.

A pity that there is no WCC bet yet.

#22 apoka

apoka
  • Member

  • 3,611 posts
  • Joined: May 09

Posted 05 March 2012 - 06:39

There is now much more money in the market after testing. The odds for Vettel are still extremely low, which surprises me because the RB8 didn't look that special in testing and had its share of problems.