Jump to content


Photo

Place The Points Competition 2012 after Australia


  • Please log in to reply
6 replies to this topic

#1 Makarias

Makarias
  • Member

  • 12,618 posts
  • Joined: December 98

Posted 19 March 2012 - 13:29

The standings after Australia:
Pos Name Tot Latest
1) AcuraF1 101 101
= Anderis 101 101
= Apex 101 101
= arcsine 101 101
= Bleu 101 101
= Brawn BGP 001 101 101
= Costaz 101 101
= Crazy Canuck 101 101
= D82 101 101
= Dispenser89 101 101
= DutchQuicksilver 101 101
= Estwald 101 101
= Fastcake 101 101
= Fisichella_2001 101 101
= Grayson 101 101
= kismet 101 101
= KWSN-DSM 101 101
= Makarias 101 101
= mark f1 101 101
= noikeee 101 101
= race addicted 101 101
= scheivlak 101 101
= skylark68 101 101
= Wlleiotl 101 101
25) Iscurrega 100 100
26) M2000-5 98 98
27) August 93 93
28) shays -79 101
A few points missed already, and shays starts the season with a 180 point penalty with 2200 points placed rather than 2020. 28 entries is three more than last year, a step in the right direction.

The entries


The following list shows the maximum, average ("popularity poll") and minimum bets on each driver. In order to make the Popularity Poll 2020 points, the value for Ricciardo was rounded off upwards instead of downwards, as it otherwise would have been. New column "Diff" is Popularity Poll difference to 2011. The net difference appears clearly positive, since replaced drivers aren't listed.
Name Max Pop Min Diff
Vett 359 311 250 + 40
Hami 339 281 225 +109
Butt 342 269 200 +130
Webb 271 230 150 + 5
Alon 265 176 104 - 78
Rosb 282 147 93 + 2
Schu 222 118 80 - 12
Räik 185 110 61 +110
Mass 140 95 26 - 84
Gros 109 70 38 + 70
diRe 85 45 10 + 33
Hülk 85 43 7 + 43
Koba 50 27 2 - 14
Pere 54 27 1 + 8
Ricc 85 23 2 + 21
Verg 85 21 0 + 21
Senn 38 12 0 + 12
Mald 47 11 0 - 11
Kova 10 3 0 +- 0
Petr 6 1 0 - 46
dela 2 0 0 +- 0
Kart 2 0 0 +- 0
Gloc 2 0 0 +- 0
Pic 2 0 0 +- 0



Popularity Poll WCC prediction:
Team Pts Diff
McLa 550 +239
RBR 541 + 45
Ferr 271 -162
Merc 265 - 10
Lotu 180 + 20
FoIn 88 + 54
Saub 54 - 6
STR 44 - 15
Will 23 - 61
Cate 4 - 1
HRT 0 +- 0
Maru 0 +- 0

* Ferrari clearly has lowered expectations, while McLaren's have moved up even more clearly as their 2011 preseason performance was deceivingly worrying.
* Mercedes' preseason hype is totally invisible in this game.
* Force India on the up after a strong 2011 campaign
* Williams correspondingly down...


If the Popularity Poll turns out to be a 100% correct prediction, the final standings would look like this:
Pos Name Tot
1) Wlleiotl 1948
2) Bleu 1939
3) Makarias 1936
4) Grayson 1928
5) Fastcake 1927
6) Apex 1915
= Fisichella_2001 1915
8) DutchQuicksilver 1914
9) Crazy Canuck 1912
10) Anderis 1907
11) mark f1 1900
12) Brawn BGP 001 1893
= scheivlak 1893
14) arcsine 1885
15) noikeee 1884
16) kismet 1882
17) race addicted 1880
18) skylark68 1878
19) Costaz 1862
20) D82 1848
21) Dispenser89 1839
22) AcuraF1 1831
23) Estwald 1805
24) August 1759
25) shays 1747
26) Iscurrega 1744
27) KWSN-DSM 1707
28) M2000-5 1686
Wlleiotl is average entry of the year, whereas M2000-5 stops KWSN-DSM from scoring a hat trick for least average guess of the year. I think it would be fun if more players would go out more on a limb, but who am I to speak with one of the most average entries as usual...


How many players have guessed each driver for WDC?
Driver Players
Vett 22
Hami 4
Butt 2
Vettel is once more the WDC favourite. Perhaps less clear cut after the season opener.


Teammate battles: Which driver is expected to outscore his teammate?
Owner Owned
<- = ->
Alon 28 0 0 Mass
Vett 28 0 0 Webb
Räik 27 0 1 Gros
Rosb 25 0 3 Schu
Kova 16 12 0 Petr
diRe 16 2 10 Hülk
Hami 16 1 11 Butt
Koba 15 5 8 Pere
Ricc 15 4 9 Verg
Senn 13 7 8 Mald
Gloc 0 28 0 Pic
dela 0 28 0 Kart
Very disputable who is top dog in five of the teams expected to regularly score points, and Kimi and Rosberg probably aren't as comfortable as these numbers suggest either. Alonso and Vettel are both expected to beat their respective teammates by 81 points; not much ambiguity in those teams it seems.


The Drivers' list
Driver Expect Surprise Beat
% % #
Koba 29,3 17,0 1
Pere 14,9 8,4 3
Butt 9,3 8,3 0
Ricc 8,9 3,4 0
Vett 5,8 6,0 0
Alon 5,7 4,8 0
Räik 5,4 4,2 0
Hami 5,3 5,4 0
Webb 5,2 5,4 0
diRe 2,2 2,2 0
The Saubers ended up the positive surprises of Australia after Maldonado squandered an opportunity for an even greater upset.

EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2012 this is 28.


Guesses on P1-P5:
Button Vettel Hamilton Webber Alonso
* Forecast 500 * Potential 493 * Potential 490 * Potential 487 * Potential 485
* Potential 500 * Forecast 360 M2000-5 339 Dispenser89 271 Dispenser89 265
M2000-5 342 August 359 August 336 kismet 261 Costaz 242
Brawn BGP 001 311 M2000-5 357 arcsine 319 Crazy Canuck 260 AcuraF1 240
Grayson 293 kismet 346 noikeee 315 mark f1 260 Crazy Canuck 220
AcuraF1 290 AcuraF1 345 Apex 300 AcuraF1 255 Fisichella_2001 220
Bleu 290 D82 343 Wlleiotl 300 M2000-5 253 DutchQuicksilver214
kismet 290 shays 341 * Forecast 300 Estwald 250 Makarias 211
arcsine 285 Apex 340 Brawn BGP 001 299 Makarias 248 Bleu 206
August 282 noikeee 335 mark f1 295 August 246 scheivlak 206
Crazy Canuck 280 Estwald 330 Grayson 294 Fastcake 242 mark f1 200
skylark68 280 mark f1 330 Fisichella_2001 291 shays 242 * Forecast 200
Wlleiotl 280 Fisichella_2001 320 kismet 289 skylark68 242 Fastcake 187
D82 275 Wlleiotl 320 Fastcake 283 Anderis 240 kismet 186
Dispenser89 274 Makarias 318 race addicted 282 noikeee 240 race addicted 180
Costaz 272 arcsine 311 AcuraF1 280 * Forecast 240 shays 180
Fastcake 272 skylark68 310 Crazy Canuck 280 Apex 235 Brawn BGP 001 178
noikeee 272 Dispenser89 307 Bleu 275 DutchQuicksilver232 Grayson 170
Fisichella_2001 271 Anderis 306 Estwald 275 race addicted 228 Iscurrega 161
Anderis 268 Bleu 301 shays 275 Costaz 225 Anderis 159
Makarias 267 Brawn BGP 001 301 Iscurrega 274 Bleu 224 August 152
scheivlak 266 Crazy Canuck 300 Makarias 272 Wlleiotl 220 Apex 150
Apex 260 Iscurrega 293 Dispenser89 267 scheivlak 212 Wlleiotl 150
Estwald 260 scheivlak 293 scheivlak 264 Fisichella_2001 211 D82 145
shays 247 Grayson 292 DutchQuicksilver263 arcsine 205 arcsine 132
DutchQuicksilver241 DutchQuicksilver284 Costaz 258 Brawn BGP 001 201 noikeee 131
mark f1 240 Fastcake 279 Anderis 251 Grayson 200 Estwald 121
race addicted 226 Costaz 266 skylark68 251 KWSN-DSM 200 KWSN-DSM 120
Iscurrega 212 race addicted 255 D82 232 D82 195 skylark68 117
KWSN-DSM 200 KWSN-DSM 250 KWSN-DSM 225 Iscurrega 150 M2000-5 104
* Current 25 * Current 18 * Current 15 * Current 12 * Current 10
It's still early days of course, but right now you'd be a bit worried if you were at the lower end of the McLaren guesses, wouldn't you?


Guesses on P6-P10:
Kobayashi Räikkönen Perez Ricciardo Di Resta
* Potential 483 * Potential 481 * Potential 479 * Potential 477 * Potential 476
* Forecast 160 August 185 * Forecast 80 KWSN-DSM 85 KWSN-DSM 85
KWSN-DSM 50 D82 159 scheivlak 54 shays 47 Iscurrega 79
shays 50 shays 155 KWSN-DSM 50 * Forecast 40 shays 75
race addicted 46 M2000-5 152 shays 45 Fastcake 32 Fastcake 56
scheivlak 37 Costaz 146 Fastcake 43 Apex 30 race addicted 56
Apex 35 noikeee 136 race addicted 40 D82 30 skylark68 51
Crazy Canuck 35 Grayson 135 DutchQuicksilver 39 arcsine 29 mark f1 50
skylark68 35 scheivlak 126 Apex 35 Estwald 26 scheivlak 50
Costaz 32 Apex 125 Fisichella_2001 35 Makarias 26 kismet 49
DutchQuicksilver 31 KWSN-DSM 120 Anderis 34 mark f1 25 noikeee 48
kismet 31 * Forecast 120 Brawn BGP 001 34 Brawn BGP 001 21 Fisichella_2001 46
Anderis 30 Anderis 116 arcsine 30 Fisichella_2001 21 Apex 45
Estwald 30 DutchQuicksilver116 Wlleiotl 30 skylark68 21 Costaz 45
Wlleiotl 30 Bleu 115 Dispenser89 29 Crazy Canuck 20 Crazy Canuck 45
Fisichella_2001 29 Makarias 114 Estwald 29 scheivlak 20 Grayson 45
Fastcake 27 Wlleiotl 110 Crazy Canuck 25 Wlleiotl 20 Bleu 43
AcuraF1 26 arcsine 109 Grayson 24 Bleu 19 D82 43
Grayson 25 mark f1 100 kismet 23 DutchQuicksilver 19 Wlleiotl 40
Dispenser89 24 race addicted 100 skylark68 23 Grayson 19 Brawn BGP 001 37
Brawn BGP 001 22 Iscurrega 98 Costaz 22 Costaz 18 DutchQuicksilver 37
D82 22 Fastcake 87 AcuraF1 20 noikeee 18 Makarias 37
Bleu 21 Fisichella_2001 85 mark f1 20 race addicted 18 Anderis 36
Makarias 21 Crazy Canuck 80 D82 19 Dispenser89 17 AcuraF1 35
mark f1 20 kismet 79 Bleu 15 AcuraF1 15 Estwald 35
noikeee 18 Brawn BGP 001 76 Makarias 15 Anderis 12 arcsine 34
arcsine 16 skylark68 76 noikeee 15 Iscurrega 10 Dispenser89 34
M2000-5 13 Dispenser89 75 * Current 4 kismet 6 M2000-5 28
Iscurrega 8 AcuraF1 65 Iscurrega 3 August 4 * Forecast 20
* Current 8 Estwald 61 August 2 M2000-5 2 August 10
August 2 * Current 6 M2000-5 1 * Current 2 * Current 1
Ricciardo is set to join the Saubers in beating expectations the next time he's in the points, whenever that may be. Overall the midfield feels hugely unpredictable after Oz.

The PTPC forecast
Will appear after the Spanish GP.

Edited by Makarias, 21 March 2012 - 09:01.


Advertisement

#2 scheivlak

scheivlak
  • Member

  • 16,473 posts
  • Joined: August 01

Posted 19 March 2012 - 14:30

Great as always, Mak :up:

There's a 'Buem' somewhere in outscore statistics though that you'll have to replace with 'Verg'.

#3 KWSN - DSM

KWSN - DSM
  • Member

  • 36,081 posts
  • Joined: January 03

Posted 19 March 2012 - 14:51

:wave:

Early goings, and I am still at maximum points. This part intriques me:

...Wlleiotl is average entry of the year, whereas M2000-5 stops KWSN-DSM from scoring a hat trick for least average guess of the year. I think it would be fun if more players would go out more on a limb, but who am I to speak with one of the most average entries as usual...


My bold does that mean I have been the most away from average the previous two seasons? Guess I too easily vote with emotions over sanity, but let's see me win it all.... :rotfl:


:cool:




#4 Makarias

Makarias
  • Member

  • 12,618 posts
  • Joined: December 98

Posted 19 March 2012 - 17:06

Fixed that typo, scheivlak :)

KWSN: yep, you're the least average player in this decade!
2010 early stats
2011 early stats

And the outcomes:
2010 final standings
2011 final standings
And just to balance things:
2005 final standings

:)

#5 Grayson

Grayson
  • Autosport digital product manager

  • 3,497 posts
  • Joined: July 08

Posted 20 March 2012 - 09:27

Thanks for posting all of this, Mak. I love how many statistics you can grind out from our simple predictions!

Given the way Button drove on Sunday, I'm rather glad to see that I've got the third highest prediction for him! That might make up for all the points I'm about to lose by predicting Maldonado to get fewer points than Kovi's Caterham...

#6 AcuraF1

AcuraF1
  • Member

  • 2,508 posts
  • Joined: July 02

Posted 20 March 2012 - 17:50

First Place !! (Thank you alphabetical order :D )

#7 shays

shays
  • Member

  • 1,269 posts
  • Joined: September 01

Posted 22 March 2012 - 10:12


Oh my...must have mis-read the rules on the total points... :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: