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Latest Qualifying & Race Pace Pecking Order


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#1 RayInTorontoCanada

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Posted 11 April 2012 - 15:30

Hi all.

This is my first ever thread - so be kind. (Thanks in Advance).

I just made a comment in the RB8 thread and it got me thinking about starting a thread on what is usually refered to as 'The Pecking Order'.

The winter testing season was a bit of a question mark (other than the McLarens being rather "good" and the Ferrari being rather "poor, relatively speaking"...)

And, then, when we had Australia, it was said Melbourne is "an atypical circuit" so "let's wait" for Malaysia...

And, then, finally, we had rain in Sepang which threw up it's own "issues" with different cars operating differently on Full Wets and on Inters.

But, I think, we've seen enough to have some sort of Pecking Order already. And I think it's pretty different between 1 Flying Lap trim and Race Pace. I'll start off the speculation:


Qualifying 3 Trim:

1 McLaren MP4-27

2 Lotus E30

3 Mercedes W03

4 Red Bull RB8

5 Ferrari F2012

6= Sauber C31
6= Williams FW34-Renault


Race Pace:

= 1 McLaren (Paddy Lowe says they don't have a race pace advantage)
= 1 Red Bull
= 1 Lotus (shame about Grosjean's accidents and Kimi's starting positions)

4. Ferrari

= 5 Sauber
= 5 Mercedes (can't use W/F duct through the front of the car as in Q; poor tyre deg)
= 5 Williams (???!)

Obviously we have the next group of Force India and Toro Rosso...and then we have Massa who's really under-performing, making the Ferrari look worse than it is.

Lastly, Williams could possibly have a potential race winner on their hands (under lucky circumstances) but there's a HUGE question mark over Maldonado and Senna.

Is the current Williams better than where it's being put on the grid and where it's being raced?

Thoughts?

Edited by RayInTorontoCanada, 11 April 2012 - 16:09.


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#2 Dunder

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Posted 11 April 2012 - 15:38

Not quite sure that you can conclude that Lotus are on a par with McLaren/RBR in terms of race pace.

Both races so far have been 'messy' so I don't rule out that it could be true but there is no real evidence to suggest that it is the case.

#3 HoldenRT

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Posted 11 April 2012 - 15:43

From my own viewing of live timing on the Sat and Sundays.. only top 5 and assuming dry conditions.. and clear air for all cars..

Qual

McLaren
Merc
Lotus/Redbull
Ferrari

Race

Redbull (marginally but becomes more apparent at the end of stints)
McLaren
Lotus
Ferrari/Merc


#4 jrg19

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Posted 11 April 2012 - 15:47

From my own viewing of live timing on the Sat and Sundays.. only top 5 and assuming dry conditions.. and clear air for all cars..

Qual

McLaren
Merc
Lotus/Redbull
Ferrari

Race

Redbull (marginally but becomes more apparent at the end of stints)
McLaren
Lotus
Ferrari/Merc


Id say thats a pretty fare judgement id put Sauber up there with race pace in Australia both drivers moved through the field well.

#5 Dunder

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Posted 11 April 2012 - 15:58

From my own viewing of live timing on the Sat and Sundays.. only top 5 and assuming dry conditions.. and clear air for all cars..

Qual

McLaren
Merc
Lotus/Redbull
Ferrari

Race

Redbull (marginally but becomes more apparent at the end of stints)
McLaren

Lotus
Ferrari/Merc


Personally I would just say that it is very close between the two and leave it at that for the moment.


#6 RayInTorontoCanada

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Posted 11 April 2012 - 16:01

Not quite sure that you can conclude that Lotus are on a par with McLaren/RBR in terms of race pace.

Both races so far have been 'messy' so I don't rule out that it could be true but there is no real evidence to suggest that it is the case.


I'll be honest: I'm merely speculating! :)

#7 ViMaMo

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Posted 11 April 2012 - 16:05

Quali:
Mclaren
Merc/RedBull/Lotus
Ferrari

Race:
Mclaren/RedBull
Ferrari/Lotus
Sauber/Merc/Williams

Two dry races on two different circuits could sort out the order quickly.

Edited by ViMaMo, 12 April 2012 - 02:21.


#8 RayInTorontoCanada

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Posted 11 April 2012 - 16:13

The more I think about it, the more I think that the Williams FW34-Renault is a very good racing car.

Maldonado was right up Alonso's exhaust pipe in Melbourne...and then Senna made up chunks in Malaysia.

I'm wondering what that car is capable of with Alonso, Raikkonen, Hamilton, Vettel or Button in it. I mean, who's rating Maldonado? And there's still a question mark over Senna, isn't there?

#9 robefc

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Posted 11 April 2012 - 16:18

Interesting to consider the race pace of the Sauber - Perez had the best pace in Malaysia by some distance and they weren't too shabby in Oz either.

#10 RayInTorontoCanada

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Posted 11 April 2012 - 16:23

Interesting to consider the race pace of the Sauber - Perez had the best pace in Malaysia by some distance and they weren't too shabby in Oz either.


Indeed.

One wonders what Perez could have done with the Williams. It's a shame for Williams that they got bags of Venezualan money in their pockets instead of bags of Pesos! LOL :rotfl:

Edited by RayInTorontoCanada, 11 April 2012 - 16:25.


#11 Dunder

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Posted 11 April 2012 - 16:30

Interesting to consider the race pace of the Sauber - Perez had the best pace in Malaysia by some distance and they weren't too shabby in Oz either.


Perez went for a one-stopper in Australia (again!) so it is difficult to judge. After Alonso pitted for the second time in Melbourne, Perez was still behind him and was on tyres he was going to have to nurse to the end.


#12 velgajski1

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Posted 11 April 2012 - 16:58

Quali:
McLaren
RBR
Mercedes/Lotus
Ferrari

Race
RBR/McLaren
Ferrari/Lotus
Sauber/Mercedes/Williams


#13 artista

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Posted 11 April 2012 - 17:11

...
2 Lotus E30
...

Erm, Ray, I'm sure they would love to name the car E30, but I think they still need 10 years until they are there :p

This is my first ever thread - so be kind. (Thanks in Advance).

I couldn't help myself, sorry! :blush:

To make a more constructive contribution to the thread:

it's difficult to know yet because circumstances in Australia and Malaysia didn't help that much to see the pecking order.

I think in Qualifying, McLaren is fastest with Mercedes, Lotus and Red Bull a bit behind McLaren, but close among them.

Race pace? I'm not even sure there is a race pace pecking order. Looking at how the tyres, as well as the full/light cars, seem to be working, it's even possible that we have some teams being faster than other teams for the first half of a race and then the thing changing for the 2nd half.

#14 jamiegc

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Posted 11 April 2012 - 17:14

Qualifying - McLaren comfortably

Race Pace - Red Bull

#15 RayInTorontoCanada

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Posted 11 April 2012 - 17:18

Erm, Ray, I'm sure they would love to name the car E30, but I think they still need 10 years until they are there :p

I couldn't help myself, sorry! :blush:


Quite!  ;) And, no worries! :) Merely a typo!

I've been typing "E20" in the Kimi Raikkonen thread consistently...and, then, as soon as I type out my first thread, I get a brain fade! Haha!

#16 Mastah

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Posted 11 April 2012 - 17:39

5 Ferrari F2012
6= Sauber C31
6= Williams FW34-Renault


Qual

5 Ferrari


Quali:
5 Ferrari


Quali:
5 Ferrari



No. Just no. In quali trim Ferrari is behind Williams and Sauber in 7th place. Williams drivers underperformed massively in Malaysia (in FP3 Pastor did lap on hards good enough for Top 10 in quali) and also in Australia, while Sauber drivers had 2 failures and 2 bad efforts - in Oz Koba was horrible in Q2, with time from Q1 good enough for P7 in Q2, while in Malaysia Checo did very good lap in Q2, only to made 2 mistakes in Q3 and qualify at least 5 tenths off what was possible and as a result behind Fred.


Quali:

1. McLaren/Mercedes/Lotus (I would say they are equal, but McLaren have great drivers, while Lotus have rookie and rusty Kimi and Mercedes have "superb" pairing squeezing "maximum" from their car)
4. Red Bull
5. Williams
6. Sauber
7. Ferrari
8. Toro Rosso/Force India
10. Caterham
11. Marussia
12. HRT

Race:

I don't know, honestly. Everyone is so close and it's difficult to judge properly. My guesses:

McLaren/Red Bull/Lotus/Sauber/Williams
Ferrari, Force India, Toro Rosso, Mercedes
Caterham
Marussia
HRT

#17 Mastah

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Posted 11 April 2012 - 18:04

Perez went for a one-stopper in Australia (again!) so it is difficult to judge. After Alonso pitted for the second time in Melbourne, Perez was still behind him and was on tyres he was going to have to nurse to the end.


Yeah, unfortunately team destroyed his race by not only putting him on inferior and slower one stop strategy, but also letting him to stay out for 6 laps too long before pitting, when he lost 20 seconds (question - which team wouldn't pit driver knowing there are 6 drivers behind, who just pitted for fresh rubber, while their driver is on old tyres? yep, there is only one team ready to sacrifice 20 seconds in 6 laps, almost whole pit stop, it's Sauber :well:). His pace, even with damaged FWEP, was great, what a waste of Checo's talent that race was...


One wonders what Perez could have done with the Williams. It's a shame for Williams that they got bags of Venezualan money in their pockets instead of bags of Pesos! LOL :rotfl:


I think Williams team would be much happier :).


#18 SCUDmissile

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Posted 11 April 2012 - 19:56

i think the OP is bang on there. apart from maybe bringing the Lotus down to Merc level in quali, but i think apart from that :up:

#19 Kubiccia

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Posted 11 April 2012 - 21:21

Qualifying 3 Trim:

1 McLaren MP4-27

2 Lotus E30

3 Mercedes W03

4 Red Bull RB8

5 Ferrari F2012

6= Sauber C31
6= Williams FW34-Renault


Race Pace:

= 1 McLaren (Paddy Lowe says they don't have a race pace advantage)
= 1 Red Bull
= 1 Lotus (shame about Grosjean's accidents and Kimi's starting positions)

4. Ferrari

= 5 Sauber
= 5 Mercedes (can't use W/F duct through the front of the car as in Q; poor tyre deg)
= 5 Williams (???!)

Thoughts?


I always liked your posts, and I'm kind of surprised it's your first thread. Keep going ;)

I disagree with Ferrari being better than Sauber and Williams either in qualifying or race.

In Melbourne, Sauber had at least 4 tenths advantadge over Ferrari in qualifying. Williams was also faster. Both seemed faster in race as well but Alonso made the difference. Maldonado was clearly being held by the slow Ferrari of Alonso there and Saubers had bad start.

In Sepang, Maldonado damaged his car for qualifying and still did a time very close to Alonso's best in qualifying. Perez best time was 1 tenth slower than Alonso. Because Alonso is faster than both, it's safe to assume Sauber and Williams were faster again in qualifying. Regarding race pace, Sauber was ridiculously faster than Ferrari(like a full second) and Williams had a much better race pace as well.

I also think Lotus have better qualifying car than Mercedes but their drivers underperformed in Sepang.

EDIT: Reading the hype around Ferrari in here. I'll be very happy when Williams and Sauber hammer them in the head in a few days in China. In such long straights, Alonso won't be able to hold position and will be wiped out by Koba, Maldonado, Perez

Edited by Kubiccia, 11 April 2012 - 21:28.


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#20 Dunder

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Posted 11 April 2012 - 21:26

I always liked your posts, and I'm kind of surprised it's your first thread. Keep going ;)

I disagree with Ferrari being better than Sauber and Williams either in qualifying or race.

In Melbourne, Sauber had at least 4 tenths advantadge over Ferrari in qualifying. Williams was also faster. Both seemed faster in race as well but Alonso made the difference. Maldonado was clearly being held by the slow Ferrari of Alonso there and Saubers had bad start.

In Sepang, Maldonado damaged his car for qualifying and still did a time very close to Alonso's best in qualifying. Perez best time was 1 tenth slower than Alonso. Because Alonso is faster than both, it's safe to assume Sauber and Williams were faster again in qualifying. Regarding race pace, Sauber was ridiculously faster than Ferrari(like a full second) and Williams had a much better race pace as well.

I also think Lotus have better qualifying car than Mercedes but their drivers underperformed in Sepang.


What are you basing that on?


#21 Coops3

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Posted 11 April 2012 - 21:58

I still can't quite get my head around how much relative performance difference there is between qualy and the race these days. I mean, sure there's the fuel difference, but then you would expect cars to get closer to their qualy performance towards the end of the race, which I've noticed doesn't always seem to be the case. I wonder if it's mostly down to the advent of DRS and the fact that it can be used freely in qualy?

#22 Kubiccia

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Posted 11 April 2012 - 23:38

What are you basing that on?

Sauber's best qualifying time(done in Q1 by Kobayashi): 1:26.182

Ferrari's best qualifying time(done in Q2 by Alonso): 1:26.494

Ok, 3 tenths.




#23 Dunder

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Posted 12 April 2012 - 00:08

Sauber's best qualifying time(done in Q1 by Kobayashi): 1:26.182

Ferrari's best qualifying time(done in Q2 by Alonso): 1:26.494

Ok, 3 tenths.


I see.
Alonso's lap was done on a set of used tyres (used for a second run in Q1) and as such isn't really representative.

I don't disagree that both Williams and Sauber are at least a match for Ferrari in qualifying as it stands but it is not the case that they are well ahead.



#24 Kubiccia

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Posted 12 April 2012 - 00:24

I see.
Alonso's lap was done on a set of used tyres (used for a second run in Q1) and as such isn't really representative.

I don't disagree that both Williams and Sauber are at least a match for Ferrari in qualifying as it stands but it is not the case that they are well ahead.

IIRC, Alonso didn't use supersofts to make a fast lap in Q1. He only went out with it to protect himself from any harm. If that's the case, the set he used in Q2 was new. If not, then he did a fast lap in Q1, using SS, as Kamui as was way slower.

Either way you look at it, Sauber was faster. Let's not forget that the track improves from Q1 to Q2, especially after rainy FPs which led the track quite green.

Anyway, I kind of agree with you. Sauber and Williams are faster in qualifying but not by much. In race pace, then it's another story. I think Ferrari is way slower than both under this condition.

#25 RealRacing

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Posted 12 April 2012 - 01:36

Q

1.McLAren
2.MErcedes
3. Lotus
4. Red Bull
5. Ferrari
6. Williams
7. Sauber

R

1. McLAren
2. Red Bull
3. Lotus
4. Ferrari
5. Mercedes/Sauber/Williams


#26 PorcupineTroy

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Posted 12 April 2012 - 01:55

I still can't quite get my head around how much relative performance difference there is between qualy and the race these days. I mean, sure there's the fuel difference, but then you would expect cars to get closer to their qualy performance towards the end of the race, which I've noticed doesn't always seem to be the case. I wonder if it's mostly down to the advent of DRS and the fact that it can be used freely in qualy?


I'm kind of the same way. I mean, it's reasonable to think that team A is two tenths faster than team B in quali but team B is one tenth better in the race, but I can't remember a team like Mercedes, going from the second row of the grid on Saturday to barely scoring points on Sunday.

#27 Francesc

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Posted 12 April 2012 - 10:46

Mercedes on the same level of Williams and Sauber on race pace? :rotfl: Do people actually watch the races? Mercedes is the slowest stablished team on race pace.

#28 RayInTorontoCanada

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Posted 12 April 2012 - 12:35

Mercedes on the same level of Williams and Sauber on race pace? :rotfl: Do people actually watch the races? Mercedes is the slowest stablished team on race pace.


Ya, I think we watch the races. Schumacher's gearbox packed up in AUS and then he got hit by Grosjean in MAL. These may or may not have an impact on the reading.

Regardless, where do you think they are in the Pecking Order in Q and the Race exactly, then?

On another note:

http://www.autosport...rt.php/id/98718

Madonado is saying the Williams FW34 is lacking some straight line speed otherwise it's right up there on race pace.

I have a question: Maldonado, in my mind, occassionally dismantled Barrichello last year but no one's rating either him or Senna. So, what is the lack of a "Top Line" driver costing the FW34?

If, say, Vettel is 1-tenth or so faster than Webber*...and Hamilton is, say, 1 to 1-and-a-half-tenths faster than Button* on average...then how much faster would Vettel and Hamilton - and, say, even Alonso or Raikkonen - be in relataion to Maldonado?

-----

* Let's assume Webber and Button are carring some type of weight/height penalty which is costing them 1 or 1-and-a-half tenths as opposed to say anything to do with "talent".

Edited by RayInTorontoCanada, 12 April 2012 - 12:41.


#29 Jon83

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Posted 12 April 2012 - 13:10

From my own viewing of live timing on the Sat and Sundays.. only top 5 and assuming dry conditions.. and clear air for all cars..

Qual

McLaren
Merc
Lotus/Redbull
Ferrari

Race

Redbull (marginally but becomes more apparent at the end of stints)
McLaren
Lotus
Ferrari/Merc


Pretty much my take on it although a dry weekend would certainly give us a better understanding.


#30 RayInTorontoCanada

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Posted 13 April 2012 - 15:43

...I can't remember a team like Mercedes, going from the second row of the grid on Saturday to barely scoring points on Sunday.


If you read between the lines of what Rosberg's saying, the discrepency could be even more alarming given their front tyre deg on this Chinese track:

http://www.autosport...rt.php/id/98776

I mean, is there a possibility that a W03 could even legitimately take Pole in Shanghai tomorrow morning (our time)...only to fall behind the McLarens, Red Bulls, Lotuses, Ferraris, Saubers, Williamses and, even, a Toro Rosso or a Force India in the race proper?

Talk about a frightening brace of very fast mobile chicanes for the other guys to sort out at the Grand Prix on Sunday!

Astounding

Edited by RayInTorontoCanada, 13 April 2012 - 15:58.


#31 canaus

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Posted 13 April 2012 - 18:27

No. Just no. In quali trim Ferrari is behind Williams and Sauber in 7th place. Williams drivers underperformed massively in Malaysia (in FP3 Pastor did lap on hards good enough for Top 10 in quali) and also in Australia, while Sauber drivers had 2 failures and 2 bad efforts - in Oz Koba was horrible in Q2, with time from Q1 good enough for P7 in Q2, while in Malaysia Checo did very good lap in Q2, only to made 2 mistakes in Q3 and qualify at least 5 tenths off what was possible and as a result behind Fred.


Quali:

1. McLaren/Mercedes/Lotus (I would say they are equal, but McLaren have great drivers, while Lotus have rookie and rusty Kimi and Mercedes have "superb" pairing squeezing "maximum" from their car)
4. Red Bull
5. Williams
6. Sauber
7. Ferrari
8. Toro Rosso/Force India
10. Caterham
11. Marussia
12. HRT

Race:

I don't know, honestly. Everyone is so close and it's difficult to judge properly. My guesses:

McLaren/Red Bull/Lotus/Sauber/Williams
Ferrari, Force India, Toro Rosso, Mercedes
Caterham
Marussia
HRT


I have the same opinion. :)

#32 tommyhjortasen

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Posted 13 April 2012 - 19:57

Don´t think MacLaren will quali on top this race.

#33 RayInTorontoCanada

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Posted 13 April 2012 - 20:52

Don´t think MacLaren will quali on top this race.


Why?

Because Lewis will concentrate on a 'race spec' set-up knowing he'll be fighting from the 3rd row at best?

Or because the Mercedes boys will put up error-free, 'banzai' final Q3 laps?

Or do you think the Killer lap will come from Kimi in the E20? Vettel in the 'old' RB8?

Edited by RayInTorontoCanada, 13 April 2012 - 20:56.


#34 Anomnader

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Posted 14 April 2012 - 12:13

So... is merc now the fastest car? :-)

#35 Wander

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Posted 14 April 2012 - 12:23

So... is merc now the fastest car? :-)


In qualifying on this track in these conditions, yes.

#36 SkorbiF1

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Posted 14 April 2012 - 13:17

I've made a "small" study of performances of the teams in qualifying between last year and this year. To minimize driver errors I've only collected the best performing car of the team in Q3 session and compared it to the best performing car last year. In case no car in that team had time in Q3 (2012 or 2011) I've taken times from Q2 and the same for Q2 -> Q1.
The averages look like this after the Chinese GP qualifying session:

Qualifying difference last year to this year (average)

Williams-Renault	   -0,217
Mercedes			   -0,017
Force India-Mercedes	0,180
Caterham-Renault		0,218
Lotus-Renault		   0,382
Marussia-Cosworth	   0,494
Sauber-Ferrari		  0,614
HRT-Cosworth			0,694
STR-Ferrari			 0,872
McLaren-Mercedes		1,022
Ferrari				 1,506
Red Bull Racing-Renault 2,099

surprises to me:
1, This would have Williams as the team with greatest progress from last year
2, Red Bull as the biggest loser, not Ferrari
3, Mclaren so low and still regarded as the fastest car, just shows you how much pace the other big teams have lost.

If anyone is interested, let me know, I can post the tables as the season evolves. And no, I didn't have anything better to do..

Edited by SkorbiF1, 14 April 2012 - 13:23.


#37 itsademo

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Posted 14 April 2012 - 13:30

I've made a "small" study of performances of the teams in qualifying between last year and this year. To minimize driver errors I've only collected the best performing car of the team in Q3 session and compared it to the best performing car last year. In case no car in that team had time in Q3 (2012 or 2011) I've taken times from Q2 and the same for Q2 -> Q1.
The averages look like this after the Chinese GP qualifying session:

Qualifying difference last year to this year (average)

Williams-Renault	   -0,217
Mercedes			   -0,017
Force India-Mercedes	0,180
Caterham-Renault		0,218
Lotus-Renault		   0,382
Marussia-Cosworth	   0,494
Sauber-Ferrari		  0,614
HRT-Cosworth			0,694
STR-Ferrari			 0,872
McLaren-Mercedes		1,022
Ferrari				 1,506
Red Bull Racing-Renault 2,099

surprises to me:
1, This would have Williams as the team with greatest progress from last year
2, Red Bull as the biggest loser, not Ferrari
3, Mclaren so low and still regarded as the fastest car, just shows you how much pace the other big teams have lost.

If anyone is interested, let me know, I can post the tables as the season evolves. And no, I didn't have anything better to do..

:up:
IS there anything better to do?

#38 Dan333SP

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Posted 14 April 2012 - 14:01

Qualifying-
1. Mercedes
2. Mclaren (though that can change on a tighter track)
3. Sauber
4. Lotus
5. Red Bull
6. Ferrari
7. Williams
8. FI
9. STR
10. Caterham
11. Virgin
12. HRT

My comment- Sauber are the most impressive team to me, they are both very talented drivers but I'm surprised to see them easily getting the better of the RBRs here in China. I also think most people here are overrating Williams. Yes, they don't have the best drivers on the grid, but I don't think the car is anywhere close to capable of top 3 starts on merit as some seem to think. Anyway, it's just exciting to see a field that is much closer and more mixed than it has been for several years.


Race pace- I'll wait until tomorrow.

#39 RayInTorontoCanada

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Posted 14 April 2012 - 15:22

Qualifying-
1. Mercedes
2. Mclaren (though that can change on a tighter track)
3. Sauber
4. Lotus
5. Red Bull
6. Ferrari
7. Williams
8. FI
9. STR
10. Caterham
11. Virgin
12. HRT

Race pace- I'll wait until tomorrow.


Qualifying:

1... Mercedes (hard to argue otherwise, isn't it? At THIS circuit)
2... McLaren (Lewis had to go for a 'race' set up; Jenson didn't go out early enough. Still, the W03 was just TOO fast in Shanghai)

Here is where it gets interesting...

=3... RBR (Mark was 6-tenths SLOWER(!!!) in Q3 than in Q2...So, I don't think RBR are 5th fastest only, TBH; Had Vettel made it to Q3, doubt he would be 6-tenths slower than his Q2 time. They may not be clearly 3rd fastest...but I don't think they're lower than 3rd Co-Equal fastest. I feel Mark didn't unlock the RB8's full potential in Q3...and Seb doesn't seem he can 'adapt' to the obviously 'quicker' latest development. That's Seb's problem, yes...but it's RBR's problem too.)

=3... Sauber (Koba improved marginally from his Q2 time; His and Checo's Q2 time was 1-tenth slower than Webber's Q2 time)

5... Lotus (Kimi within 1-tenth of Koba)

6 - 12 ... Agree with you, Dan333SP


Race:

Wait til tomorrow, as you say...but that Merc is way, way too fast in relation to where it was in AUS/MAL for it to not feature...and they've been hard at work to solve the tyre deg issues over the last 3 weeks. I don't expect them to podium in a "straight up" race, but I don't expect them to fall completely apart either. At least Grosjean won't be taking one of them off at the first corner! Hehe.

I'm expecting this from the 'race':

1 McLaren (They're starting "out of position" but - if they keep their noses clean - can still win, even from 7th.)

2 RBR (Webber qualified out of position but he can still win; Vettel's hard tyre long run pace was VERY good.)

= 3 Sauber (If McLaren and RBR hit problems, Koba could easily be fighting for a Sauber win for the 2nd race in a row!)
= 3 Lotus (Hoped-for 2-tenths in upgrades haven't worked in China. Kimi, however, is good enough to pull out a win from 4th on the grid.)

= 5 Mercedes - BIG question mark
= 5 Ferrari (Alonso and those lightening Ferrari pitstops can make a material difference in terms of Track Position. Plus they brought some performance upgrades which, unlike for Lotus, has seemingly worked.)
= 5 Williams

Edited by RayInTorontoCanada, 14 April 2012 - 16:14.


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#40 fieraku

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Posted 14 April 2012 - 15:45

I've made a "small" study of performances of the teams in qualifying between last year and this year. To minimize driver errors I've only collected the best performing car of the team in Q3 session and compared it to the best performing car last year. In case no car in that team had time in Q3 (2012 or 2011) I've taken times from Q2 and the same for Q2 -> Q1.
The averages look like this after the Chinese GP qualifying session:

Qualifying difference last year to this year (average)

Williams-Renault	   -0,217
Mercedes			   -0,017
Force India-Mercedes	0,180
Caterham-Renault		0,218
Lotus-Renault		   0,382
Marussia-Cosworth	   0,494
Sauber-Ferrari		  0,614
HRT-Cosworth			0,694
STR-Ferrari			 0,872
McLaren-Mercedes		1,022
Ferrari				 1,506
Red Bull Racing-Renault 2,099

surprises to me:
1, This would have Williams as the team with greatest progress from last year
2, Red Bull as the biggest loser, not Ferrari
3, Mclaren so low and still regarded as the fastest car, just shows you how much pace the other big teams have lost.

If anyone is interested, let me know, I can post the tables as the season evolves. And no, I didn't have anything better to do..


The EBD ban has turned F1 on its head as far as one lap pace is concerned,as for race pace it's not clear with certainty,it seems close.

I'll say as much as... this season will be very hard to judge the cars themselves since driver performance has never been this crucial,at least from what I remember,and so many teams are so close to e/o so the margins for error are small.

Nico might as well had 3 poles already if he hadn't messed up in the previous 2,who knows.

Awesome BTW,keep em coming :up:

Edited by fieraku, 14 April 2012 - 15:46.


#41 Disgrace

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Posted 14 April 2012 - 15:47

surprises to me:
1, This would have Williams as the team with greatest progress from last year


I'm surprised that you would find this surprising, I thought it was already clear that this car is light-years ahead of it's predecessor, perhaps the worst Williams of all time.

#42 RayInTorontoCanada

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Posted 14 April 2012 - 19:39

Re Race Pace:

Sauber!

This is what Jenson said on Formula1.com:

http://www.formula1....12/4/13221.html

"...we ought to be as quick or quicker than most of the cars in front of us in the race. The unusual one is Kamui (Kobayashi), who seems to have very good long run pace."

Now, if we look at what Checo did at the last Grand Prix and we see what Jenson's saying about Koba-san, is it possible that the Sauber is the fastest car in race trim on a permanent circuit with longish straights at this moment in time?

JB doesn't seem to be as worried about the Mercedes or Kimi as he is that Sauber C31 that nearly won - if not for an error after a radio message - in Malaysia!

Interesting.

Edited by RayInTorontoCanada, 14 April 2012 - 19:44.


#43 fieraku

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Posted 14 April 2012 - 20:09

Re Race Pace:

Sauber!

This is what Jenson said on Formula1.com:

http://www.formula1....12/4/13221.html

"...we ought to be as quick or quicker than most of the cars in front of us in the race. The unusual one is Kamui (Kobayashi), who seems to have very good long run pace."

Now, if we look at what Checo did at the last Grand Prix and we see what Jenson's saying about Koba-san, is it possible that the Sauber is the fastest car in race trim on a permanent circuit with longish straights at this moment in time?

JB doesn't seem to be as worried about the Mercedes or Kimi as he is that Sauber C31 that nearly won - if not for an error after a radio message - in Malaysia!

Interesting.

It could as well be true,Sauber has been the best on tires going back to last season and Perez did have good pace in Mal as does Kamui here,it could be that as good as the car might be who knows how good it really is if in the hands of an Alonso or another top driver.
Sauber have found something for sure and look legit so far.

#44 muttyx

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Posted 15 April 2012 - 00:22

I don't disagree that both Williams and Sauber are at least a match for Ferrari in qualifying as it stands but it is not the case that they are well ahead.


They are actually miles ahead, especially sauber, when you factor in the quality of the drivers. I am not sure how so many are putting Ferrari ahead of these teams. Just because Alonso manages to beat them (barely) does not mean the Ferrari is better, for obvious reasons.
Ferrari are barely better than Force India and Torro Rosso. The fact that such a good driver as Massa has finished last out of all the established teams in the first two races, says it all really. The Ferrar is that bad.

#45 RayInTorontoCanada

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Posted 16 April 2012 - 12:55

Well, the pre-race form book on Mercedes and Sauber went completely out the window, didn't it?

Sauber did "a Mercedes" at the Chinese GP :wave: : Completely failing in the race like the W03s did in the first 2 races after promising so much in Qualifying.

So, now with 3 meetings gone, it's time to re-rank the Pecking Order.

But, right now, it's boiling down to more than "just the car", specifically 3 things:

1. Circuit configuration. If the Monaco GP was held at the Weekend, Mercedes would have had a much tougher time in Qually and, as a result, the race;

2. Temperature and weather (i.e. Wet or Wet/Dry races - See MAL);

3. Drivers finding the "sweet spot" on tyre management and tyre strategy (The way Nico/Mercedes did; The way Lotus with Kimi didn't)

Nevertheless, i'll take a punt at the Top 7 Pecking Order - based on an average circuit config and an average temperature window:


Qually

1 McLaren

2 Mercedes (that very long straight really helped the DDRS'd W03)

3 Lotus

= 4 RBR
= 4 Sauber

6 Ferrari

7 Williams



RACE

1 McLaren (I think the grid penalty to Lewis and the circuit config played into Mercs hands in China)

2 RBR (they were rarely in clean air in China; Lack straight-line speed so China isn't fully representative; ran 2nd best in AUS/MAL (other than Fernando/Checo))

3 Mercedes (Seem to have sorted tyre issues; Could have trouble at Monaco, etc.)

4 Lotus (Their pitstops are amateurish, frankly!)

5 Williams (Clearly faster than Ferrari in AUS and CHI...HOW good is that FW34-Renault really?)

6 Sauber (Alonso would get more out of the C31)

7 Ferrari (WOW !!!)


There were some really excellent comments...so i'd love to read peoples thoughts.

Thanks in advance! :)

Edited by RayInTorontoCanada, 16 April 2012 - 13:03.


#46 Dan333SP

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Posted 16 April 2012 - 13:43

Maybe it was a combination of the track temperatures and the long straights, but my current race order is-

1. Mercedes
2. Mclaren
3. RBR
4. Lotus
5. Williams
6.Sauber
7. Ferrari
8. FI
9. STR
10. Caterham
11. Marussia
12. HRT

I honestly think that, with the new focus on a broader range of operating conditions for the setup of the W03, Mercedes will be in a position to win at a good portion of the tracks. I assumed the Mclaren would have the edge on race pace, but Jenson was dropped like a stone by Rosberg and couldn't hang on to MSC to get within DRS territory before he retired. Really impressive by Mercedes, I hope they can keep it up though I'm sure there will be weekends where they drop to 3rd or 4th or even 5th fastest team once again.


#47 SCUDmissile

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Posted 16 April 2012 - 13:52

:confused: Ferrari was quicker than Williams in the race, and the Sauber.i know finishing position didn't show that, but Maldonado was quite clearly holding up Fernando at the end, and I didn't see a Williams/Sauber hounding Raikkonen,Webber most of the race, then a McLaren.

#48 RayInTorontoCanada

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Posted 16 April 2012 - 14:21

:confused: Ferrari was quicker than Williams in the race...Maldonado was quite clearly holding up Fernando at the end...


Is it possible that calibre of driver is masking the performance of the two cars in your above?

Is it possible that had Fernando been in the Williams and Maldonado in the Ferrari, the story would be different?

Is there a slight, slight chance that Alonso is a faster driver than Maldonado? :)

Edited by RayInTorontoCanada, 16 April 2012 - 14:21.


#49 SCUDmissile

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Posted 16 April 2012 - 14:27

Is it possible that calibre of driver is masking the performance of the two cars in your above?

Is it possible that had Fernando been in the Williams and Maldonado in the Ferrari, the story would be different?

Is there a slight, slight chance that Alonso is a faster driver than Maldonado? :)

Well yeah, Id agree with that.
But the Ferrari got screwed by strategies. Massa finished in front of raikkonen, and they both had a bad strategy outcome.
He was ahead of the cars mentioned and Vettel for a lot of the race, but then the final part of the race got away from him, and the team.

#50 Baddoer

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Posted 16 April 2012 - 15:29

With race/qualy pace combined i'd say

1. McLaren
2. Lotus
3. RBR
4. Mercedes
5. Sauber
6. Williams
7. Ferrari

Lotus with second best car had yet to show their true form. I have to say RBR drivers are doing very good job considering car lacks qualy pace. Mercedes and Sauber are jokers, no one can predict what they pull out of hat. Williams is quite decent car (possible race winning) but two average drivers just make it look average.

Edited by Baddoer, 16 April 2012 - 15:32.