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[Makarias]

The standings after Spain:

Pos Name Tot Latest
1) Anderis 505 101
= race addicted 505 101
3) Brawn BGP 001 503 99
4) Fastcake 494 90
5) Dispenser89 488 84
6) skylark68 487 83
7) Apex 486 82
= scheivlak 486 84
9) arcsine 483 83
= DutchQuicksilver 483 84
11) Grayson 481 79
12) mark f1 480 82
13) D82 478 77
14) Fisichella_2001 477 78
15) AcuraF1 475 80
= Costaz 475 81
= Crazy Canuck 475 77
= noikeee 475 86
19) KWSN-DSM 472 77
= Wlleiotl 472 77
21) Bleu 470 76
22) Makarias 469 77
23) Estwald 468 76
= kismet 468 77
25) Iscurrega 461 77
26) M2000-5 431 70
27) August 420 66
28) shays 292 77

You could call Maldonado's win a bit of a surprise, and his points score is already higher than almost anyone dared to guess for him. This be one crazy season.

The entries


The Drivers' list

Driver Expect Surprise Beat
% % #
Mald 264,5 62,7 26
Senn 117,0 37,8 19
Pere 82,0 41,7 9
Koba 69,7 39,0 5
Gros 50,3 33,1 0
Räik 44,4 27,5 0
Alon 34,6 24,0 0
diRe 33,1 18,6 1
Rosb 27,8 15,5 0
Webb 20,9 18,7 0
Vett 19,6 18,0 0
Hami 18,9 16,6 0
Verg 18,9 5,7 4
Butt 16,8 14,2 0
Ricc 8,9 3,4 0
Hülk 7,0 4,5 0
Mass 2,1 2,4 0
Schu 1,7 1,9 0

Maldonado zooms past his 100% expectation mark of 10.97 points for the season. A 100% surprise for him will be 48 points, which seems quite achievable.

EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2012 this is 28.


Guesses on P1-P5:

Maldonado Alonso Räikkönen Grosjean Kobayashi
* Potential 404 * Potential 436 * Potential 424 * Potential 410 * Potential 394
* Forecast 116 Dispenser89 265 * Forecast 196 * Forecast 140 * Forecast 76
Anderis 47 * Forecast 244 August 185 August 109 KWSN-DSM 50
race addicted 33 Costaz 242 D82 159 KWSN-DSM 100 shays 50
* Current 29 AcuraF1 240 shays 155 shays 100 race addicted 46
Brawn BGP 001 27 Crazy Canuck 220 M2000-5 152 noikeee 98 scheivlak 37
Fastcake 18 Fisichella_2001 220 Costaz 146 arcsine 83 Apex 35
Iscurrega 15 DutchQuicksilver214 noikeee 136 Makarias 83 Crazy Canuck 35
noikeee 15 Makarias 211 Grayson 135 Brawn BGP 001 80 skylark68 35
arcsine 14 Bleu 206 scheivlak 126 Wlleiotl 80 Costaz 32
Dispenser89 12 scheivlak 206 Apex 125 Apex 75 DutchQuicksilver 31
DutchQuicksilver 12 mark f1 200 KWSN-DSM 120 skylark68 75 kismet 31
scheivlak 12 Fastcake 187 Anderis 116 Costaz 71 Anderis 30
skylark68 11 kismet 186 DutchQuicksilver116 race addicted 71 Estwald 30
Apex 10 race addicted 180 Bleu 115 Grayson 70 Wlleiotl 30
mark f1 10 shays 180 Makarias 114 DutchQuicksilver 69 Fisichella_2001 29
Costaz 9 Brawn BGP 001 178 Wlleiotl 110 scheivlak 67 Fastcake 27
AcuraF1 8 Grayson 170 arcsine 109 Fastcake 66 AcuraF1 26
Grayson 7 Iscurrega 161 mark f1 100 Anderis 65 Grayson 25
Fisichella_2001 6 Anderis 159 race addicted 100 Dispenser89 65 Dispenser89 24
Crazy Canuck 5 August 152 Iscurrega 98 Bleu 62 Brawn BGP 001 22
D82 5 Apex 150 Fastcake 87 Crazy Canuck 60 D82 22
kismet 5 Wlleiotl 150 Fisichella_2001 85 mark f1 60 Bleu 21
KWSN-DSM 5 D82 145 Crazy Canuck 80 D82 59 Makarias 21
Makarias 5 arcsine 132 kismet 79 Fisichella_2001 56 mark f1 20
shays 5 noikeee 131 Brawn BGP 001 76 Iscurrega 56 * Current 19
Wlleiotl 5 Estwald 121 skylark68 76 kismet 51 noikeee 18
Bleu 4 KWSN-DSM 120 Dispenser89 75 AcuraF1 45 arcsine 16
Estwald 3 skylark68 117 AcuraF1 65 Estwald 40 M2000-5 13
August 0 M2000-5 104 Estwald 61 M2000-5 38 Iscurrega 8
M2000-5 0 * Current 61 * Current 49 * Current 35 August 2

Of the top five finishers, only Alonso isn't forecast as a 100% surprise right now, and he's not far off either! Kobayashi is already beating guesses, and soon enough the Lotus boys should be doing the same and scores will spread out even more.

Guesses on P6-P10:

Vettel Rosberg Hamilton Button Hülkenberg
* Potential 436 * Potential 416 * Potential 428 * Potential 420 * Potential 378
August 359 Iscurrega 282 M2000-5 339 M2000-5 342 KWSN-DSM 85
M2000-5 357 Estwald 200 August 336 Brawn BGP 001 311 shays 70
kismet 346 M2000-5 197 arcsine 319 Grayson 293 D82 68
AcuraF1 345 skylark68 180 noikeee 315 AcuraF1 290 skylark68 62
D82 343 D82 178 Apex 300 Bleu 290 scheivlak 56
shays 341 arcsine 175 Wlleiotl 300 kismet 290 Fastcake 55
Apex 340 * Forecast 164 Brawn BGP 001 299 arcsine 285 Fisichella_2001 52
noikeee 335 Anderis 162 mark f1 295 August 282 race addicted 51
Estwald 330 Brawn BGP 001 155 Grayson 294 Crazy Canuck 280 arcsine 50
mark f1 330 Costaz 154 Fisichella_2001 291 skylark68 280 Anderis 45
Fisichella_2001 320 Grayson 150 kismet 289 Wlleiotl 280 DutchQuicksilver 45
Wlleiotl 320 Bleu 147 Fastcake 283 D82 275 Estwald 45
Makarias 318 DutchQuicksilver146 race addicted 282 Dispenser89 274 Brawn BGP 001 42
arcsine 311 Wlleiotl 140 AcuraF1 280 Costaz 272 Apex 40
skylark68 310 Fisichella_2001 138 Crazy Canuck 280 Fastcake 272 Crazy Canuck 40
Dispenser89 307 race addicted 136 Bleu 275 noikeee 272 Grayson 40
Anderis 306 Apex 135 Estwald 275 Fisichella_2001 271 kismet 40
Bleu 301 noikeee 134 shays 275 Anderis 268 Makarias 40
Brawn BGP 001 301 Fastcake 131 Iscurrega 274 Makarias 267 Wlleiotl 40
Crazy Canuck 300 AcuraF1 130 Makarias 272 scheivlak 266 noikeee 38
Iscurrega 293 kismet 129 Dispenser89 267 Apex 260 Bleu 37
scheivlak 293 Makarias 129 scheivlak 264 Estwald 260 mark f1 35
Grayson 292 shays 125 DutchQuicksilver263 shays 247 Iscurrega 34
DutchQuicksilver284 scheivlak 121 Costaz 258 DutchQuicksilver241 Dispenser89 30
Fastcake 279 Crazy Canuck 120 Anderis 251 mark f1 240 Costaz 27
Costaz 266 KWSN-DSM 120 skylark68 251 race addicted 226 AcuraF1 25
race addicted 255 mark f1 120 D82 232 Iscurrega 212 * Forecast 12
KWSN-DSM 250 August 111 KWSN-DSM 225 KWSN-DSM 200 M2000-5 8
* Forecast 244 Dispenser89 93 * Forecast 212 * Forecast 180 August 7
* Current 61 * Current 41 * Current 53 * Current 45 * Current 3

With the exception of Rosberg, these forecasts are looking quite dire. The McLarens and Vettel were the three favourites going in to this season and obviously none of them is running away with it so far. KWSN-DSM has the best guesses for all three so far!

The PTPC forecast

Name Forecast +/-
Costaz 1600
race addicted 1567
scheivlak 1565
Anderis 1559
DutchQuicksilver 1553
D82 1519
Grayson 1515
Fastcake 1514
KWSN-DSM 1510
Brawn BGP 001 1507
Apex 1505
Fisichella_2001 1504
Makarias 1504
Bleu 1496
noikeee 1481
Crazy Canuck 1478
Dispenser89 1475
arcsine 1472
mark f1 1470
Wlleiotl 1470
skylark68 1446
AcuraF1 1444
August 1430
Iscurrega 1430
shays 1425
kismet 1420
Estwald 1366
M2000-5 1354

The first forecast of the season puts Costaz on top! For how long will this season provide so varied results though? If one team starts scoring consistent top results, the situation may change dramatically.

[KWSN - DSM]

Nice not seeing myself tagged to be last again. But that can change fast...