Jump to content


Photo

Fernando Alonso - Part II


  • This topic is locked This topic is locked
4015 replies to this topic

#51 RedOne

RedOne
  • Member

  • 1,561 posts
  • Joined: December 11

Posted 08 June 2012 - 09:33

Past statistics do mean a lot.

You don't expect to win the lottery tomorrow, but you can win it (if you play, of course). But chances are chances, and you will probably never win the lottery.


How is the lottery that is played by millions of people trying to match 6 or 7 numbers related to finishing 20 races.

Advertisement

#52 kosmos

kosmos
  • Member

  • 6,523 posts
  • Joined: December 06

Posted 08 June 2012 - 18:24

Asked how strong the #F1 field is this yr, Villeneuve replied: "How many Alonsos are in the field? Exactly, one, so it's not that good."@GMeenaghan



#53 prty

prty
  • Member

  • 5,161 posts
  • Joined: April 05

Posted 08 June 2012 - 20:21

He's not due a DNF, why you keep saying that I don't know.. it is possible to finish a season without a DNF, have you thought about that?


He already is having a 18 races in the points streak. His record before this one was 17 I think, and the absolute one, 24. He will DNF very soon, could perfectly be in Canada, given the walls.

Edited by prty, 08 June 2012 - 20:23.


#54 Skinnyguy

Skinnyguy
  • Member

  • 4,119 posts
  • Joined: August 10

Posted 08 June 2012 - 20:35

He already is having a 18 races in the points streak. His record before this one was 17 I think, and the absolute one, 24. He will DNF very soon, could perfectly be in Canada, given the walls.


Dice has no memory.

#55 prty

prty
  • Member

  • 5,161 posts
  • Joined: April 05

Posted 08 June 2012 - 20:48

Dice has no memory.


Yes it does.

#56 Skinnyguy

Skinnyguy
  • Member

  • 4,119 posts
  • Joined: August 10

Posted 08 June 2012 - 21:00

Yes it does.


Not at all. Someone chances to retire are dependant on a lot of things, but previous races are not one of them.

#57 prty

prty
  • Member

  • 5,161 posts
  • Joined: April 05

Posted 08 June 2012 - 21:07

Not at all. Someone chances to retire are dependant on a lot of things, but previous races are not one of them.


They are, because of complacency, and the fact that probability of making a mistake exists. If your mistake rate is say 10%, over infinite races you will get that. If you do 1000, you will do mistakes in around 100. If you have been mistake-free for 20 races, it's more likely for the mistake to happen than if you have been mistake-free for 5 races.

#58 velgajski1

velgajski1
  • Member

  • 3,615 posts
  • Joined: August 09

Posted 08 June 2012 - 21:33

They are, because of complacency, and the fact that probability of making a mistake exists. If your mistake rate is say 10%, over infinite races you will get that. If you do 1000, you will do mistakes in around 100. If you have been mistake-free for 20 races, it's more likely for the mistake to happen than if you have been mistake-free for 5 races.


Well, this goes in philosophy more than statistics. If you have been mistake free for 20 races, it usually means there is some kind of quality that puts your mistake chances lower then earlier predicted. Alonso has been stellar this season, wheter he can keep it up or not doesn't have that much to do with statistics in my opinion.

Edited by velgajski1, 08 June 2012 - 21:33.


#59 as65p

as65p
  • Member

  • 17,132 posts
  • Joined: June 04

Posted 08 June 2012 - 21:36

They are, because of complacency, and the fact that probability of making a mistake exists. If your mistake rate is say 10%, over infinite races you will get that. If you do 1000, you will do mistakes in around 100. If you have been mistake-free for 20 races, it's more likely for the mistake to happen than if you have been mistake-free for 5 races.


:drunk:

In that case I take Alonsos average mistake rate per race track. Given 2005 & 2007, it's obvious that he won't ever make a mistake in Canada again. The bad new is, he's due quite a lot of mistakes on most other tracks. :D

Advertisement

#60 Skinnyguy

Skinnyguy
  • Member

  • 4,119 posts
  • Joined: August 10

Posted 08 June 2012 - 21:38

They are, because of complacency, and the fact that probability of making a mistake exists. If your mistake rate is say 10%, over infinite races you will get that. If you do 1000, you will do mistakes in around 100. If you have been mistake-free for 20 races, it's more likely for the mistake to happen than if you have been mistake-free for 5 races.


No. It´s just as likely. Yours is a very common mistake.

There´s a % chance of you making a mistake and it causing retirement. The % doesn´t depend at all in your run of previous races. It´s just as likely crashing right after a crash as crashing after a flawless season.

#61 velgajski1

velgajski1
  • Member

  • 3,615 posts
  • Joined: August 09

Posted 08 June 2012 - 21:41

No. It´s just as likely. Yours is a very common mistake.

There´s a % chance of you making a mistake and it causing retirement. The % doesn´t depend at all in your run of previous races. It´s just as likely crashing right after a crash as crashing after a flawless season.


Basically, this. Roll the 6-sided dice 10 times, get 6 each time. Next time you have again exactly 1/6 probability of getting 6 again.

#62 prty

prty
  • Member

  • 5,161 posts
  • Joined: April 05

Posted 08 June 2012 - 22:03

No. It´s just as likely. Yours is a very common mistake.

There´s a % chance of you making a mistake and it causing retirement. The % doesn´t depend at all in your run of previous races. It´s just as likely crashing right after a crash as crashing after a flawless season.


I knew you could misunderstand because of my reply to your dice post, probably (no pun intended) my fault.

The thing I'm trying to tell you is that races are not like a dice, where a throw is stochastically independent from the others. Past results affect the mentality when going into the next race, that's why I talked about complacency. It's also about maintaining concentration over a lot of races. The longer you have been able to maintain concentration, the more likely you are to lose it. If your mistake rate is 10%, it is because of those effects, not because you have an urn with 1 black ball and 9 white.

Edited by prty, 08 June 2012 - 22:11.


#63 aditya-now

aditya-now
  • Member

  • 6,895 posts
  • Joined: June 02

Posted 08 June 2012 - 22:07

Posted Image
Wanted.


Ah, Ivan - I see you are becoming an Alonso fan - preparing for the time after Schumacher?!  ;)


#64 Skinnyguy

Skinnyguy
  • Member

  • 4,119 posts
  • Joined: August 10

Posted 08 June 2012 - 22:15

I knew you could misunderstand because of my reply to your dice post, probably my fault.

The thing I'm trying to tell you is that races are not like a dice, where a throw is stochastically independent from the others. Past results affect the mentality when going into the next race, that's why I talked about complacency. It's also about maintaining concentration over a lot of races. The longer you have been able to maintain concentration, the more likely you are to lose it. If your mistake rate is 10%, it is because of those effects, not because you have an urn with 1 black ball and 9 white.


Don´t agree at all in any of these points. Every driver is 100% focused as soon as he´s in the car, and even if you accept focus level is not always the same, it doesn´t depend at all in when the last crash/mistake happened. I don´t relax in the middle of a cycling pack "because I haven´t crashed in a long time". It doesn´t even go through your mind at all when you last crashed.

Let´s agree to disagree.




#65 Coops3

Coops3
  • Member

  • 1,575 posts
  • Joined: March 11

Posted 08 June 2012 - 22:17

I think Alonso has definitely made the most of the poor situation Ferrari found themselves in at the start of the season. It's really quite impressive when you consider where he is in the standings (compare it to Massa). Now that Ferrari seem to have turned things around (or at the very least, improved their situation), he has to be at least joint favourite for the title.

Edited by Coops3, 08 June 2012 - 22:18.


#66 prty

prty
  • Member

  • 5,161 posts
  • Joined: April 05

Posted 08 June 2012 - 22:42

Don´t agree at all in any of these points. Every driver is 100% focused as soon as he´s in the car, and even if you accept focus level is not always the same, it doesn´t depend at all in when the last crash/mistake happened. I don´t relax in the middle of a cycling pack "because I haven´t crashed in a long time". It doesn´t even go through your mind at all when you last crashed.

Let´s agree to disagree.


You do tend to push more if you haven't made a mistake in a while, and be more careful otherwise.

Fine for me about your last sentence.

#67 SirRacer

SirRacer
  • Member

  • 1,162 posts
  • Joined: February 12

Posted 08 June 2012 - 22:46

I agree Fernando is due some bad luck this year. I'm a huge Alonso fan but I believe he will get some bad luck that will result in a lower finishing order in the next races. Hope I'm wrong!

#68 Fafnir622

Fafnir622
  • New Member

  • 3 posts
  • Joined: April 04

Posted 09 June 2012 - 00:02

That ice cream man looks a bit like someone we know!


Edited by Fafnir622, 09 June 2012 - 00:04.


#69 AdHoc

AdHoc
  • Member

  • 223 posts
  • Joined: January 08

Posted 09 June 2012 - 04:34

They are, because of complacency, and the fact that probability of making a mistake exists. If your mistake rate is say 10%, over infinite races you will get that. If you do 1000, you will do mistakes in around 100. If you have been mistake-free for 20 races, it's more likely for the mistake to happen than if you have been mistake-free for 5 races.


Probabilites ≠ reality
+ you don't add the better reliability to your equation, maybe in 10 years there simply won't be any mechanical DNF's anymore, at all.

Nick Heidfeld finished 33 GP in a row and a lot more have finished 17+ GP in a row, so please cut the crap.


Edited by AdHoc, 09 June 2012 - 04:38.


#70 puxanando

puxanando
  • Member

  • 3,538 posts
  • Joined: March 10

Posted 09 June 2012 - 07:08

That ice cream man looks a bit like someone we know!


:confused:


#71 prty

prty
  • Member

  • 5,161 posts
  • Joined: April 05

Posted 09 June 2012 - 08:02

Probabilites ≠ reality


Hmm :drunk:

+ you don't add the better reliability to your equation, maybe in 10 years there simply won't be any mechanical DNF's anymore, at all.


That's true.

Nick Heidfeld finished 33 GP in a row and a lot more have finished 17+ GP in a row, so please cut the crap.


In the points? Check it before using the c word.

#72 bmardini

bmardini
  • Member

  • 326 posts
  • Joined: April 10

Posted 09 June 2012 - 08:02

Don´t agree at all in any of these points. Every driver is 100% focused as soon as he´s in the car, and even if you accept focus level is not always the same, it doesn´t depend at all in when the last crash/mistake happened. I don´t relax in the middle of a cycling pack "because I haven´t crashed in a long time". It doesn´t even go through your mind at all when you last crashed.

Let´s agree to disagree.


Alonso himself said it is impossible to maintain 100% focus over a season. So I don't think you're correct.

#73 AdHoc

AdHoc
  • Member

  • 223 posts
  • Joined: January 08

Posted 09 June 2012 - 08:21

In the points? Check it before using the c word.


You were talking about DNF's:

He already is having a 18 races in the points streak. His record before this one was 17 I think, and the absolute one, 24. He will DNF very soon, could perfectly be in Canada, given the walls.


Nothing to do with finishing in the points or not, we are talking about finishing the race (= DNF). Get your facts right.

#74 prty

prty
  • Member

  • 5,161 posts
  • Joined: April 05

Posted 09 June 2012 - 08:48

You were talking about DNF's:



Nothing to do with finishing in the points or not, we are talking about finishing the race (= DNF). Get your facts right.


Talking about DNF because if he finishes a race, he will most likely finish in the points. In the same post you quote I say "18 races in the points streak" and not "18 races finishing streak".

Edited by Buttoneer, 09 June 2012 - 08:52.


#75 RedOne

RedOne
  • Member

  • 1,561 posts
  • Joined: December 11

Posted 09 June 2012 - 08:51

He already is having a 18 races in the points streak. His record before this one was 17 I think, and the absolute one, 24. He will DNF very soon, could perfectly be in Canada, given the walls.


Can you read my palms too? I haven't been stung by a bee in awhile, I must be due a sting soon..

Edited by RedOne, 09 June 2012 - 08:53.


#76 Buttoneer

Buttoneer
  • RC Forum Admin

  • 16,249 posts
  • Joined: May 04

Posted 09 June 2012 - 08:54

Hmm :drunk:



That's true.



In the points? Check it before using the c word.

Are you saying that a 17 race finishing streak in a HRT is of less value than the same in a Ferrari?

#77 Disgrace

Disgrace
  • RC Forum Host

  • 9,582 posts
  • Joined: January 10

Posted 09 June 2012 - 12:15

Did anyone else notice when Alonso did his 360 in FP2 yesterday, he hit the throttle when he went initially sideways to propel himself around the corner in order to prevent himself spinning in a straight line away from the track?

#78 RedOne

RedOne
  • Member

  • 1,561 posts
  • Joined: December 11

Posted 09 June 2012 - 13:45

Did anyone else notice when Alonso did his 360 in FP2 yesterday, he hit the throttle when he went initially sideways to propel himself around the corner in order to prevent himself spinning in a straight line away from the track?


No I didn't notice that but thanks for sharing! Clever boy he is!

#79 AdHoc

AdHoc
  • Member

  • 223 posts
  • Joined: January 08

Posted 09 June 2012 - 16:45

I say first pole of the season for Fernando.

Advertisement

#80 Skinnyguy

Skinnyguy
  • Member

  • 4,119 posts
  • Joined: August 10

Posted 09 June 2012 - 16:59

Alonso himself said it is impossible to maintain 100% focus over a season. So I don't think you're correct.


Myself:

"and even if you accept focus level is not always the same, it doesn´t depend at all in when the last crash/mistake happened."

I´ll add it depends on things like the part of the weekend you´re in, the closeness of the battle with competitors, the % you´re pushing in a particular moment, etc, etc. But not on when you last messed up, that´s plain stupid. He´ll concentrate according to what he´s doing, not to when he last crashed. That "overdue retirement" crap is ridiculous superstition.

#81 kosmos

kosmos
  • Member

  • 6,523 posts
  • Joined: December 06

Posted 09 June 2012 - 18:11

Good job, second line tomorrow and good chances of podium and maybe win. Second probably was possible but I don't know if that's what he and the team wanted, personally I don't trust Vettel so better to have Hamilton fighting with him in the first metters.

#82 CrucialXtreme

CrucialXtreme
  • Member

  • 3,972 posts
  • Joined: October 11

Posted 09 June 2012 - 18:58

As usual, great job from Fernando. This team has been the best on the grid in development. As long as they continue, he WILL win the WDC. Great pic of Fernando in Montreal

Posted Image
Original High-Res

#83 bmardini

bmardini
  • Member

  • 326 posts
  • Joined: April 10

Posted 10 June 2012 - 04:16

Myself:

"and even if you accept focus level is not always the same, it doesn´t depend at all in when the last crash/mistake happened."

I´ll add it depends on things like the part of the weekend you´re in, the closeness of the battle with competitors, the % you´re pushing in a particular moment, etc, etc. But not on when you last messed up, that´s plain stupid. He´ll concentrate according to what he´s doing, not to when he last crashed. That "overdue retirement" crap is ridiculous superstition.


Here's hoping that we are both happy at the end of today and Fernando brings home another podium. He can have the DNF when he's 50 points ahead in the championship. :)

#84 AdHoc

AdHoc
  • Member

  • 223 posts
  • Joined: January 08

Posted 10 June 2012 - 04:23

He really believed he would get the pole position. When he passed the line, I noticed him giving a "head bang", as if he was trying to push the car :p

Too bad, but the Red Bull really is frightening...

#85 mcguin

mcguin
  • Member

  • 155 posts
  • Joined: September 05

Posted 10 June 2012 - 08:31

As usual, great job from Fernando. This team has been the best on the grid in development. As long as they continue, he WILL win the WDC. Great pic of Fernando in Montreal
... pic ...

Save as...

Thanks, great photo :)

#86 prty

prty
  • Member

  • 5,161 posts
  • Joined: April 05

Posted 10 June 2012 - 13:45

Myself:

"and even if you accept focus level is not always the same, it doesn´t depend at all in when the last crash/mistake happened."

I´ll add it depends on things like the part of the weekend you´re in, the closeness of the battle with competitors, the % you´re pushing in a particular moment, etc, etc. But not on when you last messed up, that´s plain stupid. He´ll concentrate according to what he´s doing, not to when he last crashed. That "overdue retirement" crap is ridiculous superstition.


Even if I accept that it's stochastically independent, which is not, the probability of making a mistake is higher the higher the number of races. If you take for example three races, 0 = no mistake, 1 = mistake, assuming 50% probabilities of making a mistake in every race:

P(no mistake) = P(0, 0, 0) = 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2
P(mistake) = P(1, 0, 0) + P(0, 1, 0) + P(0, 0, 1) = 3 x P(no mistake)

That someone doesn't understand it doesn't mean it's "crap", "ridiculous superstition", or witchery.

Edited by prty, 10 June 2012 - 14:04.


#87 SirRacer

SirRacer
  • Member

  • 1,162 posts
  • Joined: February 12

Posted 10 June 2012 - 14:05

Even if I accept that it's stochastically independent, which is not, the probability of making a mistake is higher the higher the number of races. If you take for example three races, 0 = no mistake, 1 = mistake, assuming 50% probabilities of making a mistake in every race:

P(no mistake) = P(0, 0, 0) = 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2
P(mistake) = P(1, 0, 0) + P(0, 1, 0) + P(0, 0, 1) = 3 x P(no mistake)

That someone doesn't understand it doesn't mean it's "crap", "ridiculous superstition", or witchery.

+1

#88 bmardini

bmardini
  • Member

  • 326 posts
  • Joined: April 10

Posted 10 June 2012 - 14:07

Even if I accept that it's stochastically independent, which is not, the probability of making a mistake is higher the higher the number of races. If you take for example three races, 0 = no mistake, 1 = mistake, assuming 50% probabilities of making a mistake in every race:

P(no mistake) = P(0, 0, 0) = 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2
P(mistake) = P(1, 0, 0) + P(0, 1, 0) + P(0, 0, 1) = 3 x P(no mistake)

That someone doesn't understand it doesn't mean it's "crap", "ridiculous superstition", or witchery.


Dude

Its not like pulling socks out of a drawer

By your calculation, given enough races without a DNF, eventually there will be a 100% certainty of a DNF.

Each race is (sort of) independent. Complacency and fatigue are certainly factors to consider, but if you want to model them statistically good luck!!!

#89 puxanando

puxanando
  • Member

  • 3,538 posts
  • Joined: March 10

Posted 10 June 2012 - 14:18

Posted Image


‎16:09 - Fernando Alonso and manager arrived on the scene.

#90 CrucialXtreme

CrucialXtreme
  • Member

  • 3,972 posts
  • Joined: October 11

Posted 10 June 2012 - 14:24

Posted Image


‎16:09 - Fernando Alonso and manager arrived on the scene.


Well it's actually 10:09 am not 16:09pm but it's ok. Time difference from Montreal to Portugal :wave:

#91 puxanando

puxanando
  • Member

  • 3,538 posts
  • Joined: March 10

Posted 10 June 2012 - 14:41

Time difference from Montreal to Portugal :wave:

:wave: Spain amigo!

#92 CrucialXtreme

CrucialXtreme
  • Member

  • 3,972 posts
  • Joined: October 11

Posted 10 June 2012 - 14:43

:wave: Spain amigo!

I could have swore it was Portugal. My apologies. Spain FTW!! PuxaNando! Forza Ferrari! AvantiFer :up:

Edit: Fernando told the BBC that Ferrari is definitely a front runner from here on out. :up:

Edited by CrucialXtreme, 10 June 2012 - 14:47.


#93 puxanando

puxanando
  • Member

  • 3,538 posts
  • Joined: March 10

Posted 10 June 2012 - 14:48

PuxaNando! Forza Ferrari! AvantiFer :up:


:clap: :clap: :clap:


Posted Image


Alonso friend of Nadal! :)

#94 kosmos

kosmos
  • Member

  • 6,523 posts
  • Joined: December 06

Posted 10 June 2012 - 19:50

Race to forget, after the first pit stop everything looked so good. Anyway, the only positive thing is that he is in P2 and only 2 points down Hamilton.

#95 figue

figue
  • Member

  • 190 posts
  • Joined: October 10

Posted 10 June 2012 - 20:06

Since 2007 I hate Canada, I knew something had to go wrong and it did.
Day to forget

#96 Skinnyguy

Skinnyguy
  • Member

  • 4,119 posts
  • Joined: August 10

Posted 10 June 2012 - 20:08

A shame. Alonso´s driving was again rock-solid, but they gambled and lost.

#97 SCUDmissile

SCUDmissile
  • Member

  • 3,904 posts
  • Joined: May 11

Posted 10 June 2012 - 20:14

Has Alonso actually had a good weekend at Canada apart from 2006?
Such bad luck, as apart from 2007, he hasn't den anything wrong there.

Edited by SCUDmissile, 10 June 2012 - 20:15.


#98 Aieljose

Aieljose
  • Member

  • 676 posts
  • Joined: April 11

Posted 10 June 2012 - 20:17

Alonso did everything he could but let down by the team once again. I wonder if fernando ever regrets signing with ferrari. Im sure this is not was he expected when he joined the team. The team continues to let him down again and again. If it keeps up i think he would consider moving to another team.

#99 Flamini

Flamini
  • Member

  • 793 posts
  • Joined: March 09

Posted 10 June 2012 - 20:19

This fu**ing Canada :mad:

2005 - hit the wall, out of the race
2007 - disaster & overtaken by Sato.
2008 - crash during fight with Heidfeld
2009 - nothing bad...? oh yeah, canada wasn't in calendar that year
2010 - backmakers
2011 - collision with Button
2012 - bad strategy

Please, remove this track from the calendar.

Advertisement

#100 as65p

as65p
  • Member

  • 17,132 posts
  • Joined: June 04

Posted 10 June 2012 - 20:36

Alonso did everything he could but let down by the team once again. I wonder if fernando ever regrets signing with ferrari. Im sure this is not was he expected when he joined the team. The team continues to let him down again and again. If it keeps up i think he would consider moving to another team.


You sound like Hamiltons fans, whenever he doesn't win.

They gambled for the win instead of settling for a safe 2nd place, and they lost. It happens.