"and even if you accept focus level is not always the same, it doesn´t depend at all in when the last crash/mistake happened."
I´ll add it depends on things like the part of the weekend you´re in, the closeness of the battle with competitors, the % you´re pushing in a particular moment, etc, etc. But not on when you last messed up, that´s plain stupid. He´ll concentrate according to what he´s doing, not to when he last crashed. That "overdue retirement" crap is ridiculous superstition.
Even if I accept that it's stochastically independent, which is not, the probability of making a mistake is higher the higher the number of races. If you take for example three races, 0 = no mistake, 1 = mistake, assuming 50% probabilities of making a mistake in every race:
P(no mistake) = P(0, 0, 0) = 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2
P(mistake) = P(1, 0, 0) + P(0, 1, 0) + P(0, 0, 1) = 3 x P(no mistake)
That someone doesn't understand it doesn't mean it's "crap", "ridiculous superstition", or witchery.
Edited by prty, 10 June 2012 - 14:04.