You will make a mistake and end on the gravel, Alonso will win you
Speaking seriously now, some of you put too much emphasis on Fernando's performance and his ability to maximize the car or get always solid points but the car is really important now, if the car full potential is stuck for the rest of the season behind RB and McLaren, Alonso is going to suffer. I don't think he needs a car able to win in every race, but one to seriously challenge for 3rd and 2nd.
Seriously, I won't in any way claim Alonso has this year's WDC in the bag, Abu Dhabi is still too fresh and painful in my memory. Anything can still happen. But reliability WILL be a crucial factor - a DNF from Alonso and the championship will be split open. But if the car holds up, and Alonso does his thing being a badger (yes, old joke from 2006 - I liked him with a bagder, a badger that in Swedish folklore doesn't ease his grip when he's got a hold until he can hear the bones crushing - that's why people here in the old days used to put crunchy bread and whatnot in their wellies... oh, never mind) the championship will be his to lose.
I haven't done the maths, but let's say both RBR and both Maccas finish in front of him - meaning he'll be fifth in the rest of the races. Does that mean he'll lose the championship? (honest question - as I said, I haven't done the maths)