67 replies to this topic

[jimjimjeroo]

With all this 7 races 7 different winners and the championship so close is F1 too unpredictable?

Edited by jimjimjeroo, 14 June 2012 - 14:40.

[aray]

it is now a proven statement,instead of a question...

[lexmeister2]

How do you define "too" unpredictable?

Just because the cars are so close in performance that we are getting different winners does that make it unpredictable? Other than Maldonado who else has won a race this season that you wouldn't have "expected" to win a race?

[Muppetmad]

Well, let's see - the three drivers who are frequently touted as the most talented in the sport are in positions 1 to 3 in a McLaren, Ferrari and Red Bull respectively.

I'd say no.

[maverick69]

Well, let's see - the three drivers who are frequently touted as the most talented in the sport are in positions 1 to 3 in a McLaren, Ferrari and Red Bull respectively.

I'd say no.

Good point.

[Option1]

What is with all the angst over so many different race winners? Seriously, if anything it shows that there may be some actual racing happening rather than processions. All I can put the amount of upset down to is fanbois upset that their groin-stiffeners/moisteners aren't winning every single race. And if that's your concept of racing then you're better off watching parades.

Neil

[UPRC]

Too unpredictable would be Narain Karthikeyan winning in Valencia.

As it stands now, things can be a little hard to predict, but it hasn't reached a point where it is too much randomness or anything of the sort.

[Tenmantaylor]

Can't believe the number of insecure yes votes. I want my pay check to be predictable, my sport entertaining. It's the same for everyone, get on with it.

[smitten]

I want my sport entertaining.

I want my sport sporting.

[SirRacer]

1 Lewis Hamilton British McLaren-Mercedes 88
2 Fernando Alonso Spanish Ferrari 86
3 Sebastian Vettel German Red Bull Racing-Renault 85
4 Mark Webber Australian Red Bull Racing-Renault 79

1 Red Bull Racing-Renault 164
2 McLaren-Mercedes 133
3 Lotus-Renault 108
4 Ferrari 97



Impredictable? no way

[Clatter]

I want my sport sporting.

And yet some seem to want to know the result in advance.

[Tenmantaylor]

I want my sport sporting.

Please explain what is unsporting about unpredictability, I don't see the connection.

[BullHead]

Well I think 7 races in is too early in the season to say. Looking at the standings shows a not so unpredictable pattern too. Sure, the race outcome is unpredictable at the moment, but paying attention over each weekend we can still see who the top runners are etc.

Edited by BullHead, 14 June 2012 - 16:46.

[smitten]

Please explain what is unsporting about unpredictability, I don't see the connection.

Nothing unsporting about unpredictability per se. Some people (not necessarily you, you just used the phrase) seem to want to artificially introduce unpredictability in the name of entertainment.

[6string]

1. It's not a simple yes or no question.

2. Yes

[RealRacing]

Why too unpredictable? Is it supposed to be predictable? Is this a thread for people that like betting on F1? What´s unpredictability have to do with anything?

There´s this strange relation that some people are trying to establish on some threads that the tyres, or this year's rules or whatever are bad because they make the races unpredictable?

Unpredictability per se is good if that means more and better competition. However, I am not sure yet if this increased competition is artificially created by tyres and I don't like that it's really not a result of better on-track racing but rather of different tracks and temperatures being suitable for different cars (mostly I think?).

[Tenmantaylor]

Nothing unsporting about unpredictability per se. Some people (not necessarily you, you just used the phrase) seem to want to artificially introduce unpredictability in the name of entertainment.

It'd be unsporting if 1 team had a tyre company making special tyres just for their car. Everyone has access to the same tyres this year.

[smitten]

It'd be unsporting if 1 team had a tyre company making special tyres just for their car. Everyone has access to the same tyres this year.

No it wouldn't, it would only be unsporting if only one team were allowed to have special tyres.

[6string]

To expand further than "yes", it's not unpredictable per se, but the tyres operate in such a narrow window that they've become far more important than they should be. Factors such as track temperature, natural car characteristics influencing the tyre, and driver style all combine and need to fall exactly inside this tyre window to perform. And in many cases this year, this combination has been unpredictable, and in other cases predictable. The problem is it is impossible to create a car/driver combination that excells in all conditions because there is only a finite range of setup options to cope with said influences. And even then, a slight change in track temperature turns the pecking order on its head. That's the problem.

[Tifosi4ever]

1 Lewis Hamilton British McLaren-Mercedes 88
2 Fernando Alonso Spanish Ferrari 86
3 Sebastian Vettel German Red Bull Racing-Renault 85
4 Mark Webber Australian Red Bull Racing-Renault 79

1 Red Bull Racing-Renault 164
2 McLaren-Mercedes 133
3 Lotus-Renault 108
4 Ferrari 97



Impredictable? no way

Exactly, Lewis, Fernando, and Seb at the front with only a few points separating is exactly what you would expect. Would you prefer a repeat of last year when 1 car was so much quicker that the result was pretty much known?

The 3 best drivers are within a knats cock of each other. That is how it should be.

[MGKrebs]

No.
I've come full circle on this. Used to think that DRS and the tire issue were too artificial and that I would prefer to hear the commentators and drivers talk about their cars/engines and driving than their tires. But, the fact is that the cars are so close in performance that it is almost impossible for any of about 12 cars to pass each other without causing a wreck if they didn't have DRS and unpredictable tires. They have to have something new to challenge them otherwise they all evolve to the same level technologically and become essentially equal. There are differences in drivers but rarely enough to be able to make a pass on a typical course all else being equal.
Other things that would add to the challenge:
- longer distance, more focus on endurance/reliability.
- Allow some bodywork around the wheels so a little incidental contact doesn't knock someone out of the race
- Allow stranded cars to re- enter the race.
- Wider tracks
- Maybe everybody who is running at the finish gets points. Or a bonus based on laps completed. (I would like to see less DNF's.)

I know, some will say this sounds like NASCAR, but NASCAR doesn't do everything badly. They've got a pretty good product in some ways.

[smitten]

But, the fact is that the cars are so close in performance

Correlation does not imply causation. Yes, the cars are delivering similar lap times and the grid appears close, but is it because they actually have similar performance or is it because they are being limited by the tyres?

[itsademo]

With all this 7 races 7 different winners and the championship so close is F1 too unpredictable?

Sorry you make the same mistake people who play the lottery do....
they think just because a ball has not been drawn for a few weeks its more likely to be drawn next week.
here's a clue its not more likely as the ball has no intelligence or knowledge of history.

Just like claiming 7 different winners makes F1 unpredictable
only if you look at the headline 7 different winners
not if you look at the standings
its two different questions mixed up as one

Edited by itsademo, 14 June 2012 - 18:48.

[SCEPurple]

I think it's too early to say. There have only been 1 or 2 genuinely surprising results (Maldonado in Spain, Alonso/Perez in Malaysia). The latter only due to the perception of Ferrari's car at the time which may have been too negative!

[WonderboyF1]

Its definality settled down the last two races, and now in much the same fashion of 2011, after an exciting opening of the season, the teams have got there head around the tyres and the back end of the season, should be more predictable and most importantly, exciting because we have a tight championship battle in our hands. IMO We have never had it so good, we are witnessing a whole era of greats racing infront of our eyes.

[Tenmantaylor]

No it wouldn't, it would only be unsporting if only one team were allowed to have special tyres.

Which Ferrari were during their boringly predictable MS dominance years. Was this kind of F1 better than this season? Maybe for Ferrari fans.

[Tenmantaylor]

For the yes voters: http://www.motorspor...her-get-a-grip/

[RealRacing]

Correlation does not imply causation. Yes, the cars are delivering similar lap times and the grid appears close, but is it because they actually have similar performance or is it because they are being limited by the tyres?

T h i s

[ryan86]

No, I just feel we have seven genuinely competitive teams (with Force India very solid as well), and when small parameters change, the fact there's a load of cars so close together means losing a tenth can make the difference between a good placing and a mediocre one. The only real performance that was completely unexpected was Maldonado IMO, but Williams had been there or there abouts in the first 4 races, so it wasn't like they jumped from the back of the pack to winners.

[smitten]

Which Ferrari were during their boringly predictable MS dominance years. Was this kind of F1 better than this season? Maybe for Ferrari fans.

That is complete rubbish. At no point did the rules allow only Ferrari to use different tyres to the rest of the field.

[mlsnoopy]

I think that it apears unpredictable. If McLaren made less mistakes, we wouldn't have these thread.

[Tifosi4ever]

That is complete rubbish. At no point did the rules allow only Ferrari to use different tyres to the rest of the field.

Indeed, and whilst Ferrari had the advantage whilst Bridgestone had the advantage, when Bridgestone were ****, Ferrari were ****. Lets all blame the FIA for allowing Bridgestone to be crap in 2005, (apart from at Indi, where the FIA clearly were biased in allowing Bridgestone to race tyres that worked).

[Tenmantaylor]

That is complete rubbish. At no point did the rules allow only Ferrari to use different tyres to the rest of the field.

That's what happened though. Even though Sauber were using them the tyres were developed with Ferrari in mind who gained a massive advantage by effectively having Bridgestone work for them. Combined with unlimited testing at their own private test track it was quite the recipe for predictable racing. This why all the others eventually moved to Michelin because they knew Ferrari were getting tyres designed for their car. And when Michelin eventually started making better tyres in 2003 they were declared illegal mid season and had to be redesigned (slowed down) to let Ferrari win because they had preferential treatment from the FIA too. Mosley admitted this himself.

[Tifosi4ever]

I think that it apears unpredictable. If McLaren made less mistakes, we wouldn't have these thread.

Too right The McLaren has been a rocket ship this season, so thank god McLaren ****ed it all up when they had the advantage. Otherwise, we would be looking at a Red Bull 2011 style championship.

Now Ferrari and Red Bull have caught up, so it is more interesting.

[aditya-now]

1 Lewis Hamilton British McLaren-Mercedes 88
2 Fernando Alonso Spanish Ferrari 86
3 Sebastian Vettel German Red Bull Racing-Renault 85
4 Mark Webber Australian Red Bull Racing-Renault 79

1 Red Bull Racing-Renault 164
2 McLaren-Mercedes 133
3 Lotus-Renault 108
4 Ferrari 97



Impredictable? no way

Too unpredictable?

[aditya-now]

That is complete rubbish. At no point did the rules allow only Ferrari to use different tyres to the rest of the field.

There is the written rules, and there are agreements in the background....at least there were in those days.

With Pirelli I am 100% sure that there will be no special arrangement for anyone - I strongly commend Pirelli
for their sporting style!

[itsademo]

That is complete rubbish. At no point did the rules allow only Ferrari to use different tyres to the rest of the field.

you are right but forget the rules did not stop them and bridgestone doing exactly that
which is exactly what they did

[baddog]

"Are pirelli tyres awesomely great or would you like the series to be dull and predictable. Pick one"

To the poll.. No unpredictability is not of itself a bad thing.. The reason for it is in this case however.

[y2cragie]

For me it would be interesting to either have the Pirelli's without the DRS, or the Bridgestones with DRS, i just think the Pirelli's and DRS together are too much.
As a side note, F1 became too predictable when they started publishing fuel weights after Quali. Once that happened the fun of seeing who was really quick and who was just underfueled disappeared. All because people had to know everything rather than just enjoy it.

[Alx09]

I have nothing against unpredictability per se, but rather what the price we paying for that unpredictability is.

[Romulan]

Correlation does not imply causation. Yes, the cars are delivering similar lap times and the grid appears close, but is it because they actually have similar performance or is it because they are being limited by the tyres?

True, correlation does not imply causation, but your example interrogative uses the same logical fallacy in an attempt to prove your point: ". . . is it because they actually have similar performance or is it because they are being limited by the tyres?"

Both assumptions are cum hoc ergo propter hoc, logical fallacies.

A occurs in correlation with B.
Therefore, A causes B.

A = similar performance
B = similar lap times
Therefore, (A) similar performance causes (B) similar lap times. [False]

A = tires
B = similar lap times
Therefore, (A) tires cause (B) similar lap times. [False]
.

[smitten]

True, correlation does not imply causation, but your example interrogative uses the same logical fallacy in an attempt to prove your point:

Of course, but I was not proving any point merely presenting another plausible reason for cars to display similar laps times.

[maximilian]

1 Lewis Hamilton British McLaren-Mercedes 88
2 Fernando Alonso Spanish Ferrari 86
3 Sebastian Vettel German Red Bull Racing-Renault 85
4 Mark Webber Australian Red Bull Racing-Renault 79
Impredictable? no way

Right on! All of those complaining about randomness should take a look at the WDC standings - other than Schumacher's bad luck, I see absolutely nothing unusual there.

[Romulan]

Of course, but I was not proving any point merely presenting another plausible reason for cars to display similar laps times.

When I first read the sentence, I thought, are "tyres" or "performance" a false choice or are they examples in a set of variables?

[SUPRAF1]

I think it's perfect at the moment.

My only concern is that with tyres playing so much of a role, engineers and designers might become frustrated that all the millions of dollars and effort the spent on perfecting the car is negated by something out of their control.

[ViMaMo]

If its no, how good are you predictions?

[V8 Fireworks]

With all this 7 races 7 different winners and the championship so close is F1 too unpredictable?

Nope.

In almost every race the big guns stuffed up, allowing space for midfield to upper midfield teams to score wins and podiums.

E.g.,
Vettel and Alonso's strategists #*$?ed up in Montreal.
Hamilton's team #*$?ed up qualifying in Barcelona.
Button's race engineer has lost the plot, his McLaren has no grip at all for 2 races in a row.
and so on and so on...

if they had done a proper job, results would be far more predictable.

Edited by V8 Fireworks, 15 June 2012 - 02:47.

[V8 Fireworks]

...but rather of different tracks and temperatures being suitable for different cars (mostly I think?).

It's a good thing all tracks are not identical medium downforce Tilke-dromes, held in air conditioned Truman domes.

[V8 Fireworks]

Other things that would add to the challenge:
- longer distance, more focus on endurance/reliability.

The 300km is now considered classic, but certainly early grand prixs were far longer. perhaps Bernie could consider a return to those more traditional formats... longer race = more ads = more tv revenue?

[Jimisgod]

Wait what?