# "You're only as good as the last race" - A thread about the end of the season standings

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Posted 08 December 2012 - 23:23

@apoka: Funnily I tried out various formulas just now to check between only Alonso and Vettel only this season who ends up on top. Here are the results.

Considering one last race: Vettel on top 56% of the time
Considering two last reces: Vettel on top 72% of the time
Considering three last races: Vettel on top 82% of the time
Considering four last races: Vettel on top 94% of the time
Considering five last races: Vettel on top 100% of the time
Considering ten last races: Vettel on top 100% of the time
Considering fifteen last races: Vettel on top 100% of the time

So for the 2012 season the last race is a lottery, just as I expected. But when we use the numbers from four or five last races the forecast gets interesting!

Thanks for the work, turssi - that's fascinating indeed!

Originally I thought nothing of your prediction method but now I have to say there is some validity. You should do it next year again!

EDIT for typo

Edited by aditya-now, 09 December 2012 - 00:36.

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Posted 08 December 2012 - 23:47

Thanks for the work, turssi - that's fascinating indeed!

Originally I thought nothing of your prediction method but now I have to stay there is some validity. You should do it next year again!

Yeah, it was more for fun, but with the comments I got from you guys I think it makes sense to try it again next year, but with the average of the last 5 races!

### #53 apoka

apoka
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Posted 09 December 2012 - 15:35

Yeah, it was more for fun, but with the comments I got from you guys I think it makes sense to try it again next year, but with the average of the last 5 races!

Averaging 3, 4 or 5 races could make an interesting prediction.

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Posted 09 December 2012 - 15:59

Averaging 3, 4 or 5 races could make an interesting prediction.

(edit) I ran the numbers in my Excel sheet again and the prediction is totally inaccurate even considering 3, 4 or 5 races :-(

Here is a prediction curve considering 5 last races for the top-4:

Edited by turssi, 09 December 2012 - 17:37.