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is Alonso's Lead unassailable?


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Poll: Is Alonso's lead untouchable (509 member(s) have cast votes)

Is Alonso lead untouchable

  1. No (458 votes [89.98%])

    Percentage of vote: 89.98%

  2. Yes (51 votes [10.02%])

    Percentage of vote: 10.02%

Where will the fight come from:

  1. Vettel (263 votes [29.03%])

    Percentage of vote: 29.03%

  2. Webber (97 votes [10.71%])

    Percentage of vote: 10.71%

  3. Lewis (326 votes [35.98%])

    Percentage of vote: 35.98%

  4. Kimi (220 votes [24.28%])

    Percentage of vote: 24.28%

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#1 study

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 17:51

Alonso currently has a massive lead in the championship. 40 point in front of his nearest challenger with 9 races left.

The points system is:
1st : 25 points
2nd : 18 points
3rd : 15 points
4th : 12 points
5th : 10 points
6th : 8 points
7th : 6 points
8th : 4 points
9th : 2 points
10th : 1 point

With the present system, I would say the race winner, to gain enough points over Alonso, requires Alonso to finish in 6th or lower in multiple races, the Ferrari is mechanically very sound and Alonso rarely crashes and as his previous 2 WDC have shown, he is the ultimate drive for points driver when he is at a car disadvantage.

If a fight back is possible, I can only see it come from the following drivers:

1 Fernando Alonso 164
2 Mark Webber 124
3 Sebastian Vettel 122
4 Lewis Hamilton 117
5 Kimi Räikkönen 116

Lotus and McLaren if smart, would begin concentrating on these two drivers, but we know this is probably not going to be the case for quite a few races yet. Redbull have the problem that both their drivers are up there and would cause quite a storm if they asked Webber to be the no2 when they are both so close in the championship.


Amazing work by Ferrari to turn around a car that was looking to be midfield.

Edited by study, 31 July 2012 - 18:11.


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#2 Watkins74

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 17:52

No. Way to many races to go.

#3 study

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 17:54

No. Way to many races to go.


You would say you are very happy and content with the position, but not prepared to be over confident and start cheering a 3rd WDC at this stage?


Would it be unfair to say it is Alonso's to lose?

#4 Wander

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 17:58

It would be unfair to say it is Alonso's to lose, because he could still lose it without making a single mistake himself. We simply don't know how well Ferrari will fare by comparison in the second half.


#5 RockyRaccoon68

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 17:59

No, as others have said it depends on the relative pace of the F2012.

#6 Nonesuch

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 18:00

No. Way to many races to go.

Exactly. I think Vettel still has the best shot at this years WDC, unfortunately. The good thing is that Lotus and Hamilton are taking some points off of the Red Bulls - the problem is that Kimi and Lewis aren't that far behind in the championship.

It'll be close. :)

#7 scheivlak

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 18:08

Next up are Spa and Monza, both with the hard/medium tyre choices.
Last year Ferrari was vulnerable under these circumstances, especially at Spa. IMHO they really have to make step forward if they want to stay in such a nice position after Monza.
And people have come from further back, like Kimi in 2007.

At the moment your poll is a bit flawed BTW, because it should be possible to name more than one challenger......

#8 study

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 18:11

At the moment your poll is a bit flawed BTW, because it should be possible to name more than one challenger......


Amended. It might help Webber.

#9 Lights

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 18:12

No, the fight will be from all of them.

#10 maximilian

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 18:13

Alonso is overdue for a DNF...

#11 crespo

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 18:14

Absolutely not. I think the threats will come from Kimi, Lewis *and* Vettel, in that order.

The development race really starts now. That's where I think the championship hinges.

#12 Ferrari2183

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 18:23

In 2010 Alonso was about the same amount of points down to Hamilton at the break and he reeled it in quite quickly. So no, it is not unassailable.

What I will say is that from now on in there are fair amount of tracks that play to F2012's strengths.

#13 jrg19

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 18:25

Which tracks would you say suit Ferrari, Red Bull, Lotus and McLaren respectively?

#14 KavB

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 18:31

No, two bad races and he will be caught.

Remember Hamilton in 2010? He had about a 50 point lead over Alonso after Silverstone and a 30-40 point lead over Vettel, Button and Alonso after Belgium. DNF at Monza and a DNF at Singapore with Alonso winning those races boosted him from 5th to 1st.

A 40 point lead sounds big but it's nothing at all really.

#15 TheNewStig

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 18:32

Still it is possible for Karthikeyan to become WDC if he takes 9 win and Alonso take less than 9 points.
Offcourse that will never happen but much can happen the last half.
So i voted no and Kimi,Lotus looks stronger and stronger.

#16 Ferrari2183

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 18:37

Alonso is overdue for a DNF...

Without wanting to jinx it the last mechanical failure for Ferrari in which the driver didn't classify was Kimi in 2009. Of course there was Malaysia 2010 but Alonso still classified. Whichever way you look at it, the former was some 55 races ago and the latter 49 races ago.

That is some bulletproof reliability!

A DNF is more likely to come from a punt.

#17 Wander

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 18:40

A 40 point lead sounds big but it's nothing at all really.


Yeah, it's equivalent of only about 16 points with the old rules.

#18 Ferrari2183

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 18:45

Which tracks would you say suit Ferrari, Red Bull, Lotus and McLaren respectively?

Ferrari seem at home in medium/fast corners and rapid changes of direction at speed. Plenty of those coming up.

This is not to say that others won't be competitive but a performance like Hungary is unlikely.

#19 prty

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 18:45

Yeah, it's equivalent of only about 16 points with the old rules.


Indeed, that's not much, and with RBR, McLaren and Lotus there, things can easily turn around.

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#20 beqa16v

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 18:47

Well this is not an unrecoverable ground in terms of points really. I voted no because of that. However I think that things are just going Alonso's way more often than not and the gut feeling tells me that he will claim the championship without dropping the lead.

As for competitors, I think Lewis and Mark can not do it. They both crumble under championship pressure. Lewis proved that in a number of occasions as he always seems to make mistakes in the last part of the season. Mark is not consistent enough, he shines and then he's nowhere for unknown reasons.
Kimi and Seb are the ones who have proved to have that ability to really charge in the decisive part of the championship and deliver stable and high results. If Alonso faces a serious challenge, it will come from one of these two guys.

#21 tifosiMac

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 18:48

Far too many races for it to be unreachable. One DNF and a poor result in another race could put somebody right back at the top and in the fight.

#22 Jon83

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 18:55

I wish it was!

But I am certain that Hamilton and Vettel pose a major threat and I also voted for Kimi as I believe Lotus have the fastest car at the moment and the Finn is driving very well.

Edited by Jon83, 31 July 2012 - 18:56.


#23 PayasYouRace

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 19:06

Well Alonso has been known to throw it into the barriers in the late season so that's a possibility.

As has been said, there was also a big gap in 2010 and it closed right up, so it's not impossible. Really his and Ferrari's consistency have been excellent this year, but who knows what the 2nd half of the season will bring?

#24 Taxi

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 19:09

Pretty much untouchable. To many contenders.

#25 Fastcake

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 19:11

It's a big gap, especially if he keeps finishing in the points, but you can never rule out a mechanical failure. Even if his Ferrari has been bulletproof, just look how Vettel's car suddenly broke in Valencia after a long period of finishes. And of course, Alonso hasn't been Maldonadoised yet..

#26 Ferrari2183

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 19:11

Well Alonso has been known to throw it into the barriers in the late season so that's a possibility.

As has been said, there was also a big gap in 2010 and it closed right up, so it's not impossible. Really his and Ferrari's consistency have been excellent this year, but who knows what the 2nd half of the season will bring?

Known to throw it in the barriers during late season? We must've been watching different seasons then.

#27 tifosiMac

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 19:15

Known to throw it in the barriers during late season? We must've been watching different seasons then.

Yeah I can only think of two occasions where he's done this. Fuji 2007 and Spa 2010. Its unlike him other than those to crash through driver error, not that he never makes them. He did crash out this year with an unforced error in Oz but that was the first race in a car not quite the finished article.

#28 anbeck

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 19:17

What will work in Alonso's favor is the fact that there's half a dozen of drivers that will take points away from each other.

It is not the bipolar F1 we had throughout the 1990s and much of the 2000s. It was always Hill-Schumacher, Schumacher-Hakkinen, Alonso-Schumacher, etc. If one of these didn't win, chances were high that the other won. If one of the contenders had a DNF, chances were high that his competitor got 10 points closer/further away.

That situation is long gone. Even if Alonso has a DNF, we might see a podium such as Grosjean-Button-Rosberg, which means that Vettel and Hamilton (which I see as his main competitors) might only get a few points closer. And even if Alonso has a DNF and Vettel or Hamilton take 25 points: in the next race Hamilton and Vettel might be only 5th and 6th again. It is not as if they have a podium guarantee, as was the case of every WDC-contender until quite recently.

So even though, as somebody mentioned, Alonso's lead only represents 16 points in the old system, because of the close field these 16 points represent a bigger gap than was the case in the 1990s.

I think that Alonso has good chances to be WDC this year.

#29 Seanspeed

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 19:22

By the 10 point system, his lead would only be ~15 points. Thats not even close to insurmountable, especially with 9 races left.

#30 PayasYouRace

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 19:23

Known to throw it in the barriers during late season? We must've been watching different seasons then.


I guess you weren't watching Fuji 07 and Spa 10. It's happened before, it could happen again.

#31 Seanspeed

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 19:27

I guess you weren't watching Fuji 07 and Spa 10. It's happened before, it could happen again.

Thats far different than being 'known' for crashing late in the season, implying he does it all the time.

Find me a driver who hasn't occasionally thrown it away in the 2nd half of a season throughout their career....

#32 PayasYouRace

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 19:32

Thats far different than being 'known' for crashing late in the season, implying he does it all the time.

Find me a driver who hasn't occasionally thrown it away in the 2nd half of a season throughout their career....


I think you're trying to draw too much of a distinction. He's certainly been known to do it because it's happened on more than one occasion. I'm not suggesting it's is reputation, but that we know he's had that happen before. There's a bit of a myth around here that he's unflappable, but he's just as human as the others, which is what they've got to try to force out of him if they want to catch up.

Apart from maybe Kimi, I can't think of a driver who hasn't stuffed it in the barriers at a late stage of the season with a championship at stake.

Edited by PayasYouRace, 31 July 2012 - 19:33.


#33 Kingshark

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 19:37

A 40 point lead is equal to a 16 point lead with the 2003-09 point system. One win and a third place. Of course he can still be caught, but it'll be difficult to do so. I imagine Raikkonen, Hamilton, and Vettel taking the title fight to the penultimate round in America, where I feel Alonso will win his 3rd championship. Webber will have a dismall 2nd half of the year as usual. This season race won't be entirely one-sided, but not a last lap thriller either.

With the old point system, we would have;

1. Alonso - 66
2. Vettel - 50
3. Webber - 49
4. Raikkonen - 47
5. Hamilton - 45

Interestingly Vettel would be ahead of Webber and Kimi ahead of Lewis. Proving that with the old point system, wins weren't as valued as today. I doubt that with the modern system anyone could pull off the season Kimi had in 2003.

I guess you weren't watching Fuji 07 and Spa 10. It's happened before, it could happen again.

Both of those races he was crashed into by another driver earlier in the race and had considerable damage done to his car. Maybe that might be a reason to why he crashed? I'm certainly not saying he shouldn't accept a part of the blame though.

Edited by Kingshark, 31 July 2012 - 19:40.


#34 Seanspeed

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 19:42

I think you're trying to draw too much of a distinction. He's certainly been known to do it because it's happened on more than one occasion.

Apart from maybe Kimi, I can't think of a driver who hasn't stuffed it in the barriers at a late stage of the season with a championship at stake.

I think somebody who fights for the title as often as Alonso is bound to have a couple mistakes throughout several dozen+ races just like anybody. Otherwise, he's probably the most consistently high-performing driver out there.

As for Kimi - Belgium and Singapore 2008.

#35 rossbrawn

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 19:42

I fully expect: Webber, Vettel & Hamilton to take the fight to Alonso.

#36 Seanspeed

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 19:43

I fully expect: Webber, Vettel & Hamilton to take the fight to Alonso.

Dont ignore Kimi.

#37 Lone

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 19:46

Thats far different than being 'known' for crashing late in the season, implying he does it all the time.

Find me a driver who hasn't occasionally thrown it away in the 2nd half of a season throughout their career....


Have to agree with you here. Those mentioned crashes could have happened at any part of the season and to any driver and probably has. It's not like it's what he always does during the end of seasons.

And regarding his lead it will take some extraordinary circumstances, not impossible though, for any driver to get ahead of him. And the reason I believe so is that I don't think Ferrari will loose out in the development race to the others teams which makes me quite confident that Fernando will win more races this season. Once he wins another race, bar any DNF, the situation will look almost impossible for anyone to reach him.

But this is F1 and anything can happen and it usually does but I just hope it doesn't this time around because Fernando is due another WDC, well atleast in my opinion. We or rather F1 needs a 3 time WDC on the grid and who better than Fernando, and then we can start to talk about the most competitive era ever in the sport of F1.

#38 rossbrawn

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 19:46

Dont ignore Kimi.


Kimi will be thereabouts, I don't really expect him to consistently mix for the top 3 places when Red Bull & Ferrari get to tracks that suit their cars a lot more.

#39 rossbrawn

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 19:46

Whether Mercedes will join the battle, and disrupt Alonso's (and others) party, remains to be seen.

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#40 Kingshark

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 19:52

Apart from maybe Kimi, I can't think of a driver who hasn't stuffed it in the barriers at a late stage of the season with a championship at stake.

In most recent history:

Raikkonen - Singapore and Belgium 2008
Hamilton - China 2007 and Italy 2010
Vettel - Singapore 2009 and Belgium 2010

There have been many drivers effing it up in the latter stages of a season with a championship at stake. I don't understand to why you are specifically pointing out Alonso.

#41 Callisto

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 19:52

Dont ignore Kimi.

:up:

#42 PayasYouRace

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 19:53

I think somebody who fights for the title as often as Alonso is bound to have a couple mistakes throughout several dozen+ races just like anybody. Otherwise, he's probably the most consistently high-performing driver out there.

As for Kimi - Belgium and Singapore 2008.


I didn't consider Kimi to be a title contender in 08 but fair enough.

But that's the point I'm making. Alonso can be pressured into a mistake, especially in a close title fight.

#43 Les

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 19:54

Is the lead unassailable? Don't be silly. Where will the fight come from? All four of them.

#44 garoidb

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 20:02

By the 10 point system, his lead would only be ~15 points. Thats not even close to insurmountable, especially with 9 races left.


Exactly. The new points system seems to have lured people into a misperception. If Alonso or Ferrari were to collapse, it would be two to three races (probably) before they would be in big trouble.

As I have said before, on another thread, the best situation for Alonso would be if Lewis, Kimi, Seb and Mark (and Romain perhaps) take points off each other while he still keeps the scoreboard ticking over. If one driver were to start a winning streak, he would be caught quite quickly (certainly long before nine races).

#45 F1ultimate

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 20:20

The dangers Red Bull finding their groove. It's enough with one DNF for Alonso and or Vettel to score two wins and Alonso to fid himself off the podium and you will see his point advantage evaporate.

It's far from over.

#46 puxanando

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 20:22

It's far from over.


Right! But for Alonso its not bad at all.......... :cat:


#47 velgajski1

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 20:24

Exactly. The new points system seems to have lured people into a misperception. If Alonso or Ferrari were to collapse, it would be two to three races (probably) before they would be in big trouble.

As I have said before, on another thread, the best situation for Alonso would be if Lewis, Kimi, Seb and Mark (and Romain perhaps) take points off each other while he still keeps the scoreboard ticking over. If one driver were to start a winning streak, he would be caught quite quickly (certainly long before nine races).


Basically this. If season continues to be as unpredictable as it is now (with Ferrari/RBR/Lotus/McLaren shuffling as best performing cars), his lead should be enough to secure title assuming he doesn't make unnecessary mistakes. Should one of the teams emerge as cleary dominant, 40 points is not a lot.

Also, 'cracking under pressure' is overstated a bit I believe for any of title contenders. Mistakes by top drivers happen in first parts of seasons too.

Edited by velgajski1, 31 July 2012 - 20:27.


#48 rr0cket

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 20:53

Alonso could literally be 10 pts behind first place by the end of race 12. His lead is tiny. His biggest threats are either of the RBR drivers and/or Maldonado.

#49 F1 Tor.

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 21:16

There are so many points to play for still, how can we even be discussing it? This isn't 2002 or 2004. Sure Alonso is in a good position, but a couple of bad races and.....Geez, Kimi came back from 17 points down one year with 2 races to go. You can use unassailable in that situation, not here. :wave:

#50 jeze

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 21:28

If the Belgium upgrade works I'd say he'll be untouchable, if it doesn't it might be too late. I'd say that Vettel is the biggest challenger.

I can't see Webber or Räikkönen winning the title. Kimi can't do well enough in qualifying and suffers in rain (make that Belgium, Singapore, Korea, Japan, Brazil with a big risk). Webber is weaker in the second half of the season traditionally.