2 replies to this topic

[Makarias]

The standings after Germany:

Pos Name Tot Latest
1) race addicted 1003 94
2) Anderis 994 90
3) scheivlak 987 101
4) Fastcake 978 80
5) DutchQuicksilver 974 91
6) Apex 972 89
7) Brawn BGP 001 962 67
8) Grayson 951 85
9) Costaz 950 92
10) Wlleiotl 949 86
11) Fisichella_2001 944 76
12) Dispenser89 943 69
13) mark f1 942 81
14) KWSN-DSM 939 76
15) D82 936 73
16) Crazy Canuck 935 78
17) Bleu 934 81
18) Makarias 933 81
19) arcsine 931 59
20) Iscurrega 922 81
21) kismet 914 76
= noikeee 914 58
23) skylark68 905 53
24) AcuraF1 895 71
25) Estwald 857 50
26) August 856 77
27) M2000-5 809 54
28) shays 791 99

No perfect overall scores remain as race addicted misses a few points for Perez. Plenty of variety in the scores this round, scheivlak somehow managed to get 101 points.

The entries


The Drivers' list

Driver Expect Surprise Beat
% % #
Mald 264,5 62,7 26
Pere 175,1 88,0 26
Senn 150,5 48,4 21
Koba 121,0 67,0 21
Räik 88,8 54,0 9
Gros 87,7 57,0 9
Alon 87,4 59,1 10
diRe 59,5 32,8 1
Webb 52,3 45,3 0
Rosb 51,6 28,0 0
Hülk 44,2 23,4 2
Vett 35,4 31,6 0
Hami 32,8 28,1 0
Butt 25,3 20,9 0
Schu 24,6 14,1 0
Mass 24,1 17,4 0
Verg 18,9 5,7 4
Ricc 8,9 3,4 0

Kamui Kobayashi becomes the fourth driver to beat his expectations this year! That's 4-0 to the non-European drivers this season, of which there are eight.

EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2012 this is 28.


Guesses on P1-P5:

Alonso Button Räikkönen Kobayashi Vettel
* Potential 404 M2000-5 342 * Potential 348 * Potential 283 * Potential 360
* Forecast 308 * Potential 318 * Forecast 196 * Forecast 66 August 359
Dispenser89 265 Brawn BGP 001 311 August 185 KWSN-DSM 50 M2000-5 357
Costaz 242 Grayson 293 D82 159 shays 50 kismet 346
AcuraF1 240 AcuraF1 290 shays 155 race addicted 46 AcuraF1 345
Crazy Canuck 220 Bleu 290 M2000-5 152 scheivlak 37 D82 343
Fisichella_2001 220 kismet 290 Costaz 146 Apex 35 shays 341
DutchQuicksilver214 arcsine 285 noikeee 136 Crazy Canuck 35 Apex 340
Makarias 211 August 282 Grayson 135 skylark68 35 noikeee 335
Bleu 206 Crazy Canuck 280 scheivlak 126 * Current 33 Estwald 330
scheivlak 206 skylark68 280 Apex 125 Costaz 32 mark f1 330
mark f1 200 Wlleiotl 280 KWSN-DSM 120 DutchQuicksilver 31 Fisichella_2001 320
Fastcake 187 D82 275 Anderis 116 kismet 31 Wlleiotl 320
kismet 186 Dispenser89 274 DutchQuicksilver116 Anderis 30 Makarias 318
race addicted 180 Costaz 272 Bleu 115 Estwald 30 arcsine 311
shays 180 Fastcake 272 Makarias 114 Wlleiotl 30 skylark68 310
Brawn BGP 001 178 noikeee 272 Wlleiotl 110 Fisichella_2001 29 Dispenser89 307
Grayson 170 Fisichella_2001 271 arcsine 109 Fastcake 27 Anderis 306
Iscurrega 161 Anderis 268 mark f1 100 AcuraF1 26 Bleu 301
Anderis 159 Makarias 267 race addicted 100 Grayson 25 Brawn BGP 001 301
* Current 154 scheivlak 266 Iscurrega 98 Dispenser89 24 Crazy Canuck 300
August 152 Apex 260 * Current 98 Brawn BGP 001 22 Iscurrega 293
Apex 150 Estwald 260 Fastcake 87 D82 22 scheivlak 293
Wlleiotl 150 shays 247 Fisichella_2001 85 Bleu 21 Grayson 292
D82 145 DutchQuicksilver241 Crazy Canuck 80 Makarias 21 DutchQuicksilver284
arcsine 132 mark f1 240 kismet 79 mark f1 20 Fastcake 279
noikeee 131 race addicted 226 Brawn BGP 001 76 noikeee 18 Costaz 266
Estwald 121 Iscurrega 212 skylark68 76 arcsine 16 race addicted 255
KWSN-DSM 120 KWSN-DSM 200 Dispenser89 75 M2000-5 13 KWSN-DSM 250
skylark68 117 * Forecast 136 AcuraF1 65 Iscurrega 8 * Forecast 220
M2000-5 104 * Current 68 Estwald 61 August 2 * Current 110

Kobayashi ripped through half of his list with his fourth place finish.

Guesses on P6-P10:

Perez Schumacher Webber Hülkenberg Rosberg
* Potential 297 * Potential 279 * Potential 370 * Potential 269 * Potential 326
* Forecast 94 Estwald 222 Dispenser89 271 KWSN-DSM 85 Iscurrega 282
scheivlak 54 Iscurrega 200 kismet 261 shays 70 Estwald 200
KWSN-DSM 50 skylark68 164 Crazy Canuck 260 D82 68 M2000-5 197
* Current 47 M2000-5 160 mark f1 260 skylark68 62 skylark68 180
shays 45 August 133 AcuraF1 255 scheivlak 56 D82 178
Fastcake 43 Brawn BGP 001 132 M2000-5 253 Fastcake 55 arcsine 175
race addicted 40 Wlleiotl 130 Estwald 250 Fisichella_2001 52 Anderis 162
DutchQuicksilver 39 Anderis 126 Makarias 248 race addicted 51 Brawn BGP 001 155
Apex 35 KWSN-DSM 125 August 246 arcsine 50 Costaz 154
Fisichella_2001 35 Bleu 122 Fastcake 242 Anderis 45 * Forecast 152
Anderis 34 arcsine 121 shays 242 DutchQuicksilver 45 Grayson 150
Brawn BGP 001 34 D82 115 skylark68 242 Estwald 45 Bleu 147
arcsine 30 Crazy Canuck 110 * Forecast 240 Brawn BGP 001 42 DutchQuicksilver146
Wlleiotl 30 kismet 110 Anderis 240 Apex 40 Wlleiotl 140
Dispenser89 29 Fastcake 109 noikeee 240 Crazy Canuck 40 Fisichella_2001 138
Estwald 29 Grayson 105 Apex 235 Grayson 40 race addicted 136
Crazy Canuck 25 race addicted 105 DutchQuicksilver232 kismet 40 Apex 135
Grayson 24 Makarias 104 race addicted 228 Makarias 40 noikeee 134
kismet 23 scheivlak 103 Costaz 225 Wlleiotl 40 Fastcake 131
skylark68 23 DutchQuicksilver102 Bleu 224 * Forecast 38 AcuraF1 130
Costaz 22 mark f1 100 Wlleiotl 220 noikeee 38 kismet 129
AcuraF1 20 noikeee 98 scheivlak 212 Bleu 37 Makarias 129
mark f1 20 Fisichella_2001 91 Fisichella_2001 211 mark f1 35 shays 125
D82 19 AcuraF1 90 arcsine 205 Iscurrega 34 scheivlak 121
Bleu 15 Dispenser89 89 Brawn BGP 001 201 Dispenser89 30 Crazy Canuck 120
Makarias 15 shays 88 Grayson 200 Costaz 27 KWSN-DSM 120
noikeee 15 Costaz 83 KWSN-DSM 200 AcuraF1 25 mark f1 120
Iscurrega 3 Apex 80 D82 195 * Current 19 August 111
August 2 * Forecast 58 Iscurrega 150 M2000-5 8 Dispenser89 93
M2000-5 1 * Current 29 * Current 120 August 7 * Current 76

Perez is having a good chance to become the first 100% surprise this season, one more sixth place finish is all that it takes. While Schumacher finally is finding his way to the points, his teammate Rosberg is having a bit of a dry streak now.

The PTPC forecast

Name Forecast +/-
Costaz 1631 0,7
Anderis 1609 -8,2
race addicted 1607 0,9
DutchQuicksilver 1599 2,9
scheivlak 1591 2,9
Fastcake 1566 -1,1
Makarias 1558 -5,1
Apex 1554 2,9
Dispenser89 1544 -15,1
Bleu 1541 3,6
noikeee 1535 2,9
Crazy Canuck 1532 -14,9
Grayson 1532 2,9
Fisichella_2001 1529 2,9
mark f1 1521 -15,1
D82 1520 -11,8
Brawn BGP 001 1519 -0,1
KWSN-DSM 1518 0,2
Wlleiotl 1504 2,9
AcuraF1 1493 -11,4
skylark68 1488 -13,8
kismet 1484 -14,0
arcsine 1479 -11,8
shays 1473 -1,8
August 1470 -1,4
Iscurrega 1414 -18,0
Estwald 1408 -21,8
M2000-5 1362 -18,6

A somewhat negative trend, despite Button picking up some well needed points.

[Makarias]

The standings after Hungary:

Pos Name Tot Latest
1) race addicted 1083 80
2) Anderis 1079 85
3) scheivlak 1073 86
4) DutchQuicksilver 1062 88
5) Apex 1056 84
6) Fastcake 1046 68
7) Costaz 1040 90
= Grayson 1040 89
9) Brawn BGP 001 1039 77
10) Wlleiotl 1028 79
11) Makarias 1026 93
12) KWSN-DSM 1024 85
13) Bleu 1014 80
14) D82 1012 76
= Dispenser89 1012 69
16) arcsine 1009 78
17) Fisichella_2001 1006 62
= mark f1 1006 64
19) noikeee 999 85
20) Crazy Canuck 997 62
21) Iscurrega 987 65
22) kismet 976 62
23) skylark68 971 66
24) AcuraF1 957 62
25) August 941 85
26) Estwald 909 52
27) shays 886 95
28) M2000-5 879 70

Not a single 101-pointer this time, and we might not see many of them for the rest of the season. Top score for shays at 95, finally leaving last spot after starting the season with a 180-point penalty. Onwards and upwards!

The entries


The Drivers' list

Driver Expect Surprise Beat
% % #
Mald 264,5 62,7 26
Senn 200,6 64,2 24
Pere 175,1 88,0 26
Koba 121,0 67,0 21
Gros 109,3 70,7 20
Räik 105,1 63,7 16
Alon 93,1 62,9 12
diRe 59,5 32,8 1
Webb 54,0 46,8 0
Rosb 52,3 28,3 0
Hülk 44,2 23,4 2
Hami 41,7 35,5 0
Vett 39,2 35,0 0
Butt 28,3 23,2 0
Mass 26,2 18,9 0
Schu 24,6 14,1 0
Verg 18,9 5,7 4
Ricc 8,9 3,4 0

Finally a couple of Europeans make it past their 100% marks as the Lotus lads in quick succession cross the finish line. Fernando Alonso should be next, unless some backmarker driver causes a major upset. 100% surprises still look likely this year: with 55% of the season run, the top seven on this list are all on schedule!

EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2012 this is 28.


Guesses on P1-P5:

Hamilton Räikkönen Grosjean Vettel Alonso
* Potential 342 * Potential 341 * Potential 301 August 359 * Potential 389
M2000-5 339 * Forecast 211 * Forecast 138 M2000-5 357 * Forecast 298
August 336 August 185 August 109 * Potential 347 Dispenser89 265
arcsine 319 D82 159 KWSN-DSM 100 kismet 346 Costaz 242
noikeee 315 shays 155 shays 100 AcuraF1 345 AcuraF1 240
Apex 300 M2000-5 152 noikeee 98 D82 343 Crazy Canuck 220
Wlleiotl 300 Costaz 146 arcsine 83 shays 341 Fisichella_2001 220
Brawn BGP 001 299 noikeee 136 Makarias 83 Apex 340 DutchQuicksilver214
mark f1 295 Grayson 135 Brawn BGP 001 80 noikeee 335 Makarias 211
Grayson 294 scheivlak 126 Wlleiotl 80 Estwald 330 Bleu 206
Fisichella_2001 291 Apex 125 * Current 76 mark f1 330 scheivlak 206
kismet 289 KWSN-DSM 120 Apex 75 Fisichella_2001 320 mark f1 200
Fastcake 283 Anderis 116 skylark68 75 Wlleiotl 320 Fastcake 187
race addicted 282 DutchQuicksilver116 Costaz 71 Makarias 318 kismet 186
AcuraF1 280 * Current 116 race addicted 71 arcsine 311 race addicted 180
Crazy Canuck 280 Bleu 115 Grayson 70 skylark68 310 shays 180
Bleu 275 Makarias 114 DutchQuicksilver 69 Dispenser89 307 Brawn BGP 001 178
Estwald 275 Wlleiotl 110 scheivlak 67 Anderis 306 Grayson 170
shays 275 arcsine 109 Fastcake 66 Bleu 301 * Current 164
Iscurrega 274 mark f1 100 Anderis 65 Brawn BGP 001 301 Iscurrega 161
Makarias 272 race addicted 100 Dispenser89 65 Crazy Canuck 300 Anderis 159
Dispenser89 267 Iscurrega 98 Bleu 62 Iscurrega 293 August 152
scheivlak 264 Fastcake 87 Crazy Canuck 60 scheivlak 293 Apex 150
DutchQuicksilver263 Fisichella_2001 85 mark f1 60 Grayson 292 Wlleiotl 150
Costaz 258 Crazy Canuck 80 D82 59 DutchQuicksilver284 D82 145
Anderis 251 kismet 79 Fisichella_2001 56 Fastcake 279 arcsine 132
skylark68 251 Brawn BGP 001 76 Iscurrega 56 Costaz 266 noikeee 131
D82 232 skylark68 76 kismet 51 race addicted 255 Estwald 121
KWSN-DSM 225 Dispenser89 75 AcuraF1 45 KWSN-DSM 250 KWSN-DSM 120
* Forecast 213 AcuraF1 65 Estwald 40 * Forecast 222 skylark68 117
* Current 117 Estwald 61 M2000-5 38 * Current 122 M2000-5 104

Another strong Lotus race, but still no win... Not having wasted too many points on Hamilton and Vettel is one of the keys to doing well this season.

Guesses on P6-P10:

Button Senna Webber Massa Rosberg
M2000-5 342 * Potential 249 * Potential 349 * Potential 250 * Potential 302
Brawn BGP 001 311 * Forecast 44 Dispenser89 271 AcuraF1 140 Iscurrega 282
* Potential 301 Anderis 38 kismet 261 Costaz 135 Estwald 200
Grayson 293 D82 27 Crazy Canuck 260 DutchQuicksilver134 M2000-5 197
AcuraF1 290 Iscurrega 27 mark f1 260 race addicted 130 skylark68 180
Bleu 290 race addicted 25 AcuraF1 255 Dispenser89 129 D82 178
kismet 290 * Current 24 M2000-5 253 kismet 120 arcsine 175
arcsine 285 Dispenser89 21 Estwald 250 mark f1 115 Anderis 162
August 282 Fastcake 19 Makarias 248 shays 115 Brawn BGP 001 155
Crazy Canuck 280 Brawn BGP 001 18 August 246 Bleu 113 Costaz 154
skylark68 280 Apex 15 Fastcake 242 Crazy Canuck 110 Grayson 150
Wlleiotl 280 skylark68 14 shays 242 Grayson 110 Bleu 147
D82 275 Grayson 12 skylark68 242 Fisichella_2001 104 DutchQuicksilver146
Dispenser89 274 scheivlak 12 Anderis 240 Iscurrega 101 * Forecast 140
Costaz 272 Bleu 11 noikeee 240 Wlleiotl 100 Wlleiotl 140
Fastcake 272 AcuraF1 10 Apex 235 KWSN-DSM 98 Fisichella_2001 138
noikeee 272 arcsine 10 DutchQuicksilver232 Makarias 92 race addicted 136
Fisichella_2001 271 mark f1 10 race addicted 228 skylark68 88 Apex 135
Anderis 268 DutchQuicksilver 9 * Forecast 225 Fastcake 86 noikeee 134
Makarias 267 Fisichella_2001 9 Costaz 225 D82 82 Fastcake 131
scheivlak 266 Makarias 9 Bleu 224 Apex 80 AcuraF1 130
Apex 260 Crazy Canuck 8 Wlleiotl 220 August 78 kismet 129
Estwald 260 noikeee 6 scheivlak 212 Anderis 75 Makarias 129
shays 247 KWSN-DSM 5 Fisichella_2001 211 noikeee 75 shays 125
DutchQuicksilver241 shays 5 arcsine 205 scheivlak 71 scheivlak 121
mark f1 240 Wlleiotl 5 Brawn BGP 001 201 Estwald 60 Crazy Canuck 120
race addicted 226 Costaz 4 Grayson 200 Brawn BGP 001 59 KWSN-DSM 120
Iscurrega 212 Estwald 3 KWSN-DSM 200 arcsine 54 mark f1 120
KWSN-DSM 200 August 2 D82 195 * Forecast 45 August 111
* Forecast 138 kismet 2 Iscurrega 150 M2000-5 26 Dispenser89 93
* Current 76 M2000-5 0 * Current 124 * Current 25 * Current 77

Senna seems to score points with far less fanfare than his teammate, but after a strong race he's now only five points behind Maldonado in the WDC. Not many points left to get from him in this game either; Anderis' guess seems to have been the best one.

The PTPC forecast

Name Forecast +/-
Costaz 1644,8 13,8
race addicted 1621,9 14,9
scheivlak 1612,5 21,5
DutchQuicksilver 1608,8 9,8
Anderis 1606,8 -2,2
Fastcake 1568,9 2,9
Apex 1566,8 12,8
Makarias 1565,8 7,8
Bleu 1557,4 16,4
Dispenser89 1555,3 11,3
Fisichella_2001 1551,4 22,4
Grayson 1544,4 12,4
noikeee 1542,8 7,8
Crazy Canuck 1539,8 7,8
KWSN-DSM 1535,5 17,5
mark f1 1530,9 9,9
D82 1530,4 10,4
Brawn BGP 001 1529,4 10,4
Wlleiotl 1526,4 22,4
AcuraF1 1505,0 12,0
kismet 1492,5 8,5
arcsine 1489,4 10,4
August 1482,0 12,0
skylark68 1481,9 -6,1
shays 1475,9 2,9
Iscurrega 1422,9 8,9
Estwald 1403,8 -4,2
M2000-5 1362,9 0,9

Hamilton helped up the forecasts this round. Costaz still stays at the top.

[scheivlak]

Not too bad

Thanks mak

Edited by scheivlak, 12 August 2012 - 21:27.