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Alternative history mid-season: the 2012 championship without misfortune [split]


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#1 slmk

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Posted 26 August 2012 - 17:55

http://f1stats.blog....out-misfortune/

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#2 MP422

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Posted 26 August 2012 - 18:08

http://f1stats.blog....out-misfortune/


Cool article,

Alternative standings (actual standings):
1. Lewis Hamilton 177pts (117)
2. Sebastian Vettel 160pts (122)
3. Mark Webber 138pts (124)
4. Fernando Alonso 137pts (164)
5. Romain Grosjean 100pts (76)
6. Kimi Räikkönen 90pts (116)
7. Jenson Button 66pts (76)
8. Michael Schumacher 62pts (29)
9. Nico Rosberg 59pts (75)

#3 robefc

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Posted 26 August 2012 - 18:14

http://f1stats.blog....out-misfortune/


I like that article :)

Germany seems a touch generous for Lewis, however, on the other hand they didn't bump him up to 2nd in oz.

I'm not a fan of giving points for misfortune whilst ignoring what actually happened though. E.g. 4th was still there for the taking in Valencia so points loss due to misfortune should be 6 (obviously if you don't give Lewis any of the blame for the collision then 18 is fair).

Other than the above all seems fair altho haven't looked at other driver's corrections.

#4 Peter Perfect

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Posted 26 August 2012 - 18:27

http://f1stats.blog....out-misfortune/


Interesting, but the 'bad luck' card seems to be played fairly subjectively. Being a Button fan I was interested to see what might have happened at the Canadian GP had he not needed 2 gearbox changes and missed the vast majority of free practice (surely not his fault?!)...but apparently it wasn't worth mentioning. I'm sure other drivers fans could highlight more issues.

#5 MP422

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Posted 26 August 2012 - 18:36

Interesting, but the 'bad luck' card seems to be played fairly subjectively. Being a Button fan I was interested to see what might have happened at the Canadian GP had he not needed 2 gearbox changes and missed the vast majority of free practice (surely not his fault?!)...but apparently it wasn't worth mentioning. I'm sure other drivers fans could highlight more issues.


It's not. Did he get a grid penalty ? Nope

#6 Kvothe

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Posted 26 August 2012 - 18:46

http://f1stats.blog....out-misfortune/


Good read, but they missed the two bad pit stops in Malaysia dropping him behind Alonso and Perez.

#7 thechin

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Posted 26 August 2012 - 19:28

Interesting, but the 'bad luck' card seems to be played fairly subjectively. Being a Button fan I was interested to see what might have happened at the Canadian GP had he not needed 2 gearbox changes and missed the vast majority of free practice (surely not his fault?!)...but apparently it wasn't worth mentioning. I'm sure other drivers fans could highlight more issues.

Don't be silly, it's not about being fair to other drivers - just adjusting reality so Hamilton is the winner.

Tongue in cheek everyone - I can see Hamilton has had some bad luck this year but this exercise seems fairly pointless and biased towards Hamilton.

I'm sure the second half of the year will see a reversal in the luck stakes and Hamilton will mount a serious title charge.

#8 undersquare

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Posted 26 August 2012 - 20:28

Cool article,

Alternative standings (actual standings):
1. Lewis Hamilton 177pts (117)
2. Sebastian Vettel 160pts (122)
3. Mark Webber 138pts (124)
4. Fernando Alonso 137pts (164)
5. Romain Grosjean 100pts (76)
6. Kimi Räikkönen 90pts (116)
7. Jenson Button 66pts (76)
8. Michael Schumacher 62pts (29)
9. Nico Rosberg 59pts (75)


That does look different!

Good read, but they missed the two bad pit stops in Malaysia dropping him behind Alonso and Perez.

Even more different.

Edited by undersquare, 26 August 2012 - 20:28.


#9 Alx09

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Posted 27 August 2012 - 16:35

http://f1stats.blog....out-misfortune/

Great artcile. Good read, thanks for sharing.

#10 pingu666

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Posted 27 August 2012 - 19:00

Interesting, but the 'bad luck' card seems to be played fairly subjectively. Being a Button fan I was interested to see what might have happened at the Canadian GP had he not needed 2 gearbox changes and missed the vast majority of free practice (surely not his fault?!)...but apparently it wasn't worth mentioning. I'm sure other drivers fans could highlight more issues.


kyle busch turned up to the nns race in montreal having never turned a lap there. started from the rear of a 43 car field and got into the top 5. (someone else practised and qualified the car)

there was more to jensons terrible race than lack of practise (and hes done probably over 1000 laps there across his career)



#11 BillBald

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Posted 27 August 2012 - 21:21

kyle busch turned up to the nns race in montreal having never turned a lap there. started from the rear of a 43 car field and got into the top 5. (someone else practised and qualified the car)

there was more to jensons terrible race than lack of practise (and hes done probably over 1000 laps there across his career)


He wasn't talking about a lack of practice on the track. No F1 driver will take more than a few laps to learn a track.

Jenson was trying a different setup to Lewis, lack of running meant they didn't find out that the setup was very hard on the tyres.

Actually this was one of many problems Jenson has had this year, almost none of which are recognised in the article being discussed.


Edited by BillBald, 27 August 2012 - 21:23.


#12 Kvothe

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Posted 27 August 2012 - 21:50

He wasn't talking about a lack of practice on the track. No F1 driver will take more than a few laps to learn a track.

Jenson was trying a different setup to Lewis, lack of running meant they didn't find out that the setup was very hard on the tyres.

Actually this was one of many problems Jenson has had this year, almost none of which are recognised in the article being discussed.


Surely if one lacks practice with an untried set-up one uses the tried and tested set-up of their team mate?

Button went his own direction with set-up and it cost him, it's not misfortune which is what the article counts, but an error on his part.



#13 bauss

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Posted 27 August 2012 - 22:25

Surely if one lacks practice with an untried set-up one uses the tried and tested set-up of their team mate?

Button went his own direction with set-up and it cost him, it's not misfortune which is what the article counts, but an error on his part.


one would think that was pretty damn obvious. misfortune is about situations out of your control.... setup direction is very much in your control especially in the case of JB where we had his teammate to contrast.

#14 BillBald

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Posted 27 August 2012 - 23:26

Surely if one lacks practice with an untried set-up one uses the tried and tested set-up of their team mate?


He couldn't use Lewis' setup in Canada because Lewis was using a new gearbox and rear suspension, according to a Sky Sports article.

So there was definitely an element of bad luck here. But it's only one of many instances of bad luck which Lewis fans will want to deny.


Edited by BillBald, 27 August 2012 - 23:27.


#15 Kvothe

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Posted 27 August 2012 - 23:53


He couldn't use Lewis' setup in Canada because Lewis was using a new gearbox and rear suspension, according to a Sky Sports article.


So there was definitely an element of bad luck here. But it's only one of many instances of bad luck which Lewis fans will want to deny.


Actually there was a lot of contradictory info at the time. I can't be bothered to chase up all the links, but if you read this thread from just after Canada, you will see that the 2 articles you quoted were not in line with the impression which most of us got from other sources:
http://forums.autosp...a...t&p=5779240

Hard to know at this stage what really happened re. the new suspension.


Or are you only sure when it suits you're argument?

Edited by Kvothe, 27 August 2012 - 23:53.


#16 jj2728

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Posted 28 August 2012 - 00:17

Cool article,

Alternative standings (actual standings):
1. Lewis Hamilton 177pts (117)
2. Sebastian Vettel 160pts (122)
3. Mark Webber 138pts (124)
4. Fernando Alonso 137pts (164)
5. Romain Grosjean 100pts (76)
6. Kimi Räikkönen 90pts (116)
7. Jenson Button 66pts (76)
8. Michael Schumacher 62pts (29)
9. Nico Rosberg 59pts (75)


Is that kinda like an alternative world?

#17 as65p

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Posted 28 August 2012 - 09:05

Is that kinda like an alternative world?


Nevermind, far more important that it's massively wrong. It's missing my own bad luck in a) being too old, b) not skilled enough by a long way and c) surprisingly not having had an offer for a seat last winter.

Taking all that into account, I have myself on 200 points easily, there's not even the need to bother with the rest, I'll clinch the title around Korea. Obviously.

#18 BinaryDad

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Posted 28 August 2012 - 09:29

Nevermind, far more important that it's massively wrong. It's missing my own bad luck in a) being too old, b) not skilled enough by a long way and c) surprisingly not having had an offer for a seat last winter.

Taking all that into account, I have myself on 200 points easily, there's not even the need to bother with the rest, I'll clinch the title around Korea. Obviously.


I forgot, we don't like having speculation on here unless it sheds Hamilton in a negative light. Silly me.

Much like we cant say Lewis had any bad luck this season, but there's a great deal made about in Jenson's thread.


#19 Obi Offiah

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Posted 28 August 2012 - 09:31

I forgot, we don't like having speculation on here unless it sheds Hamilton in a negative light. Silly me.

:up:

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#20 FlashMaster

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Posted 28 August 2012 - 09:38

Alternative history mid-season: the 2012 championship without misfortune

1. Lewis Hamilton 177pts (117)
2. Sebastian Vettel 160pts (122)
3. Mark Webber 138pts (124)
4. Fernando Alonso 137pts (164)
5. Romain Grosjean 100pts (76)
6. Kimi Räikkönen 90pts (116)
7. Jenson Button 66pts (76)
8. Michael Schumacher 62pts (29)
9. Nico Rosberg 59pts (75)

http://f1stats.blog....out-misfortune/

#21 as65p

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Posted 28 August 2012 - 11:50

I forgot, we don't like having speculation on here unless it sheds Hamilton in a negative light. Silly me.

Much like we cant say Lewis had any bad luck this season, but there's a great deal made about in Jenson's thread.


Why do I have to assure you every second post that you can say whatever you want? Why so submissive, are you Massa, or what? :drunk:

#22 Peter Perfect

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Posted 28 August 2012 - 12:27

Cool article,

Alternative standings (actual standings):
1. Lewis Hamilton 177pts (117)
2. Sebastian Vettel 160pts (122)
3. My Mum 138pts (0)
4. Fernando Alonso 137pts (164)
5. Romain Grosjean 100pts (76)
6. Kimi Räikkönen 90pts (116)
7. Jenson Button 66pts (76)
8. Michael Schumacher 62pts (29)
9. Nico Rosberg 59pts (75)


Good showing in 3rd I see ;)

#23 undersquare

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Posted 28 August 2012 - 12:30

Haha how did it take so long for the vague generalities about speculation to show up?

But it's hard not to notice that the basis for the Alternative points table seems too solid to address...

And the "Alonso is best" chorus seems to have taken a break as well :D

#24 OoxLox

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Posted 28 August 2012 - 12:49

You could squint a bit and read a few other things into that adjusted table if you like:

1. RBR was overall best car in first half of season but Hamilton comes out on top due to more consistent qually performances. Of course, this must be due to him being a monster on his tyres so that at least he can warm them up over a lap if not keep them going for more than three or four.

2. McLaren is overall best car by a mile, Hamilton is doing no better than an average job, but Button has been utterly awful.

3. Ferrari is fourth best car overall but Alonso has driven much better than the Lotus pair.

etc etc.

Just put on whatever tint of spectacles you want and squint hard enough. I'm just happy LH is still in with a shout a half way and hope the Macca stays competitive until the last race. Come on Spa!



#25 Buttoneer

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Posted 28 August 2012 - 13:55

Split from another topic. Please PM one of the mod team if you have any issues.

#26 gm914

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Posted 28 August 2012 - 13:59

Narain Karthakayan would be leading this championship if he didn't have the misfortune of being Narain Karthakayan.

#27 Wander

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Posted 28 August 2012 - 14:40

I reckon this is biased.

#28 slmk

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Posted 28 August 2012 - 14:48

I reckon this is biased.


I reckon you probably haven't read the article.

#29 Wander

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Posted 28 August 2012 - 14:50

I reckon you probably haven't read the article.


I reckon I did.

#30 Watkins74

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Posted 28 August 2012 - 14:51

Who author's this blog. Some random fan who signed up with a blog service or is it someone who is known? Thank you.

#31 gm914

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Posted 28 August 2012 - 14:52

Another case of Ifhamilton-itis

#32 four1

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Posted 28 August 2012 - 14:55

I reckon this is biased.

I'm just surprised that Jenson Button isn't shown in 2nd place behind Lewis Hamilton. ;)

#33 bub

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Posted 28 August 2012 - 14:56

Don't worry Hamilton isn't leading the real championship. No need to get upset.

#34 thiscocks

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Posted 28 August 2012 - 15:02

Can we have a championship standing without todays tracks and running on the tracks from 1972?

#35 GX390

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Posted 28 August 2012 - 15:03

The guy who wrote the blog obviously didn't see Button's 10 second pit stop in China.

#36 Wander

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Posted 28 August 2012 - 15:05

Can we have a championship standing without todays tracks and running on the tracks from 1972?


Yes, you will just have to indulge yourself in creative fiction writing.

#37 7MGTEsup

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Posted 28 August 2012 - 15:14

Can we have a championship standing where everyones driver is number one so you don't all get your knickers in a twist when someone writes some thing that happens to have Lewis at the top? Would it have been better if someone other than a McLaren driver was at the top?

#38 ZooL

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Posted 28 August 2012 - 16:11

Thanks. Great article.

It was interesting to see how much Hamilton has actually been hurt by McLaren pitstop blunders and underfuelling for quali. It has not gone unnoticed that he had 8 consecutive weekends where McLaren cost him!

Same goes for Schumacher who has suffered just as much as Hamilton from his team although Schumacher has suffered less from human errors and more technical issues on his car, but good to see he is driving just as well as Rosberg. Plenty of life in the old dog yet.

Edited by ZooL, 28 August 2012 - 16:12.


#39 sock22

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Posted 28 August 2012 - 16:23

Having read through the whole article, it doesn't actually seem biased towards Hamilton. The only one I felt they gave him too much was Germany, but he would still be leading the championship without that. There are oddities with other drivers, such as giving fourth to Schumacher at Monaco (ahead of Vettel and Hamilton), but not considering his bad luck in Bahrain qualifying.

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#40 Ferrari2183

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Posted 28 August 2012 - 16:48

This whole thing is based on nothing but wild guesses and dismissing strategy errors like Alonso and Vettel in Canada while counting pit crew errors is a little silly... McLaren persisted with the same pit equipment despite it being troublesome so I would hardly call it misfortune. They chose to push the boundaries and like they deserve praise for getting it right they sure as hell should get some stick for happened earlier.

#41 SCUDmissile

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Posted 28 August 2012 - 17:35

Narain Karthakayan would be leading this championship if he didn't have the misfortune of being Narain Karthakayan.

:rotfl: Sig worthy!

(if you don't mind.)

#42 undersquare

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Posted 28 August 2012 - 18:00

This whole thing is based on nothing but wild guesses and dismissing strategy errors like Alonso and Vettel in Canada while counting pit crew errors is a little silly... McLaren persisted with the same pit equipment despite it being troublesome so I would hardly call it misfortune. They chose to push the boundaries and like they deserve praise for getting it right they sure as hell should get some stick for happened earlier.

Lol, wild guesses?

And you don't think the team errors are being excluded deliberately so that we can consider the driving?

What's wild is the sweeping generalisations being used to attack it; presumably because its main calculations can't be answered but are, er, unwelcome.

#43 gm914

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Posted 28 August 2012 - 18:04

:rotfl: Sig worthy!

(if you don't mind.)

Go right ahead. About time I was quoted in a sig :lol:

#44 Anderis

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Posted 28 August 2012 - 18:16

I could argue with may assumptions made in this alternative history, but it's waste of energy as many would disagree with me and not many would care to investigate what was actually going to happen.

However, it shows that coincidence and fortune may influence the final result in sport very much. Especially in such a sophisticated sport like F1 with such a tight grid as it is in 2012. This is what I appreciate in this alternative history. I don't agree with claimes like "you make your own luck" as luck is random by definition and with little differences between top teams and drivers, it may be a decisive factor in who scores the title.

#45 Lord_Shaitan

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Posted 28 August 2012 - 18:22

Wasted time. Author's and mine as well. Sorry to say but it's just biased bs.

#46 BillBald

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Posted 28 August 2012 - 18:35

Or are you only sure when it suits you're argument?


No, I'm not sure what happened in Canada. And if you're honest, neither are you. But it didn't stop you from pontificating about it.

If you'll remember, I was replying to your post.



#47 rijole1

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Posted 28 August 2012 - 18:54

Alternative history mid-season: the 2012 championship without misfortune

1. Lewis Hamilton 177pts (117)
2. Sebastian Vettel 160pts (122)
3. Mark Webber 138pts (124)
4. Fernando Alonso 137pts (164)
5. Romain Grosjean 100pts (76)
6. Kimi Räikkönen 90pts (116)
7. Jenson Button 66pts (76)
8. Michael Schumacher 62pts (29)
9. Nico Rosberg 59pts (75)

http://f1stats.blog....out-misfortune/


Well, why don't call this 'Alternative mid-season fantasy'  ;)


#48 Andrew Hope

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Posted 28 August 2012 - 20:21

If all the bad things that happen during every racing season hadn't happened, Lewis Hamilton would be leading the championship.. and if my aunt had a dick, she'd be my uncle.

#49 Kvothe

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Posted 28 August 2012 - 20:29

@ Billbald
you said

No, I'm not sure what happened in Canada. And if you're honest, neither are you. But it didn't stop you from pontificating about it.

If you'll remember, I was replying to your post.

http://www.autosport...t.php/id/101875

Well this is what Button seems to think:

"The worst races for me were Monaco and Canada. That was difficult, but when you've been racing for as long as I have, you know there are reasons for you not being on the pace, and I think we've solved a lot of those issues.

"I find [the tyres] very difficult to understand, that's why we tried a few new things this year in Canada and Monaco and places like that, because I felt I needed to find a bit more direction with the tyres, and what we tried definitely didn't work," Button said.

So we went back to what we had at the start of the year at Valencia, and that's when we started being more competitive in terms of me within the team


It seems he's either implying that the new suspension was his, or the decision to go down a different set-up path was, either way he seems to be accepting responsibility and so it can't be classed as misfortune.

#50 Kingshark

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Posted 28 August 2012 - 20:33

I think one of the clearly potential championship leaders has been unfairly omitted here, so I’ll count the points he probably lost. The man in question – Pedro de la Rosa. Now, you might think this is a long shot, but bear with me.

Australia – wary of potential HRT dominance due to their clearly superior race pace, the FIA did not allow them to take part due to some ridiculous rule they made up. Since Pedro is a better driver than Narain, this is a 25 pointer lost.

Malaysia – Alonso and Perez were the class of the field, but a bogus drive through cost Pedro a sufice third place. 15 points.

Bahrain – HRT struggled with the tyres on 50 degree celcius tyremac on a race that shouldn't even have happened, no fault of the driver of course. He should’ve been right after the Red Bulls and the Lotuses. 10 points.

Spain – Pedro was put under too much pressure, this being his home grand prix, and couldn’t handle it. Not his fault since if the organizers called this one the “European Grand Prix”, he would’ve easily run away with the win. 25 points.

Monaco – Maldonado, usually being supremely quick on this track, qualified behind Pedro, proving de la Rosa’s immense potential here. Alas, Pastor took him out in the first corner, costing him a victory. 25 points.

Canada – if not for the brake failure, de la Rosa would’ve surely been among the people overtaking Alonso on heavily worn tyres. You can obviously note that as he was substituing Perez on this track last year and was generally just as quick. 4th place. 12 points.

Europe – the safety car sabotaged HRT’s strategy, not allowing Pedro to break into the top 3 ahead of Schumacher like the otherwise would have, easily. 15 points.

Great Britain - A wet qualifying and a poor strategic call left Pedro on the back of the grid. Had it not been for that, he would've been right after the Red Bull's and Ferrari's. 10 points.

Hungary - the track where Pedro recorded his career-best finish of second. If the season went as well for him as it should’ve, he would’ve been able to easily equal that result. 18 points.

Overall, Pedro would’ve been 2nd in the standings with 155 points. Bear in mind – I’m fairly conservative here.

Edited by Kingshark, 28 August 2012 - 20:36.