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Could have Perez won in Monza had he pitted 2 laps earlier?


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#1 Baddoer

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Posted 09 September 2012 - 20:38

Topic says it all. I think he lost too much time before pistop, it was a bit risky but probably no-one in Sauber realized a chance even to be on the podium.

Edited by Baddoer, 09 September 2012 - 20:38.


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#2 jee

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Posted 09 September 2012 - 20:39

If he pitted earlier he would have been slightly slower on all following laps.

#3 GrosjeanFTW

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Posted 09 September 2012 - 20:43

I'm not so sure, I think if he cut through the traffic a bit easier in the first 10 laps or so, he would've been right on under that silver wing on the last lap. Being a Perez fan, I am slightly disappointed, can't wait
for his first win, he was happier in Malaysia than most people are after their first win. I love drivers who show emotion! :up:

#4 scheivlak

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Posted 09 September 2012 - 20:45

No.

He finished 4.3 seconds behind.

Even if he was 1 second a lap faster, he needed five more laps. Well, if he pitted on, say, lap 24 his medium tyres would have to last 5 more laps.

But, perhaps even more important, Lewis was just cruising for quite a few laps during this last stint. He simply had a lot in reserve.

Edited by scheivlak, 09 September 2012 - 20:47.


#5 F1ultimate

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Posted 09 September 2012 - 20:57

But, perhaps even more important, Lewis was just cruising for quite a few laps during this last stint. He simply had a lot in reserve.


Yupp. He said it himself that he had answers in his pocket if Perez was to close the gap more aggressively.

#6 ZooL

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Posted 09 September 2012 - 20:59

He would have won if he could qualify better. He did not make Q3 whereas Kobayashi did.

#7 Wander

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Posted 09 September 2012 - 21:00

No.

#8 GrosjeanFTW

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Posted 09 September 2012 - 21:01

He would have won if he could qualify better. He did not make Q3 whereas Kobayashi did.


Ah, but then he probably would have started on mediums, which gets rid of the main factor of his success.


#9 BigWicks

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Posted 09 September 2012 - 21:07

He would have won if he could qualify better. He did not make Q3 whereas Kobayashi did.


errr, he wouldn't have started on hards would he.

#10 Snic

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Posted 09 September 2012 - 21:13

He was losing a second a lap to the leaders for the final 5 laps of his stint on hards so he potentially would have had those extra 2 seconds spared too. Pretty sure Lewis had him covered though.

Still can't quite get my head around where that pace came from :confused:

Edited by Snic, 09 September 2012 - 21:14.


#11 BigWicks

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Posted 09 September 2012 - 21:15

Still can't quite get my head around where that pace came from


At the beginning or the end?

His pace on the option tyres is perfectly understandable, his pace on the primes at the start was amazing though

#12 g1n

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Posted 09 September 2012 - 21:17

NO.

#13 Clatter

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Posted 09 September 2012 - 21:23

He would have won if he could qualify better. He did not make Q3 whereas Kobayashi did.


If he made Q3 he would not have been able to choose what tyres to start on and would likely been stuck in the pack, all on the same strategy.

#14 Snic

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Posted 09 September 2012 - 21:27

At the beginning or the end?

His pace on the option tyres is perfectly understandable, his pace on the primes at the start was amazing though


On the primes, he was overtaking cars on medium tyres which were at least 1s a lap faster.

In qualifying the hard tyres didn't seem that much slower, which then makes me wonder how he managed to be consistently 1.5s a lap faster on medium tyres on his second stint without suffering any obvious degradation.

Edited by Snic, 09 September 2012 - 21:28.


#15 syph0nJZ05

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Posted 09 September 2012 - 21:29

If he made Q3 he would not have been able to choose what tyres to start on and would likely been stuck in the pack, all on the same strategy.

Well he could have gotten into Q3 and just done a run on the hard tyres (or not ran at all) - either way getting into Q3 isn't a disadvantage.

#16 scheivlak

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Posted 09 September 2012 - 21:33

On the primes, he was overtaking cars on medium tyres which were at least 1s a lap faster.

In qualifying the hard tyres didn't seem that much slower, which then makes me wonder how he managed to be consistently 1.5s a lap faster on medium tyres on his second stint without suffering any obvious degradation.

I gues it's the double whammy of fresher medium tyres - on a lighter car, so they could make it to the end.

Finally a Sauber strategy that worked!

Edited by scheivlak, 09 September 2012 - 21:34.


#17 Clatter

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Posted 09 September 2012 - 21:35

Well he could have gotten into Q3 and just done a run on the hard tyres (or not ran at all) - either way getting into Q3 isn't a disadvantage.


Any of them could, but the reality is more likely that he would have used the softs to get as high up the grid as possible. He would then have been on the same strategy as everyone else and probably wouldn't have progressed as well.



#18 syph0nJZ05

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Posted 09 September 2012 - 21:46

Any of them could, but the reality is more likely that he would have used the softs to get as high up the grid as possible. He would then have been on the same strategy as everyone else and probably wouldn't have progressed as well.

True, but we have seen drivers this year get into Q3 and not run in order to be able to start on a strategically better tyre for them (Vettel and Schumi spring to mind). I was just responding to your comment that if Perez had made it into Q3 then "he would not have been able to choose what tyres to start on". I know what you mean by that, but equally I think they might have taken the strategic option and not ran - meaning they would have started on hards and be positionally higher than the main midfield pack.

#19 Clatter

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Posted 09 September 2012 - 21:48

True, but we have seen drivers this year get into Q3 and not run in order to be able to start on a strategically better tyre for them (Vettel and Schumi spring to mind). I was just responding to your comment that if Perez had made it into Q3 then "he would not have been able to choose what tyres to start on". I know what you mean by that, but equally I think they might have taken the strategic option and not ran - meaning they would have started on hards and be positionally higher than the main midfield pack.


I doubt that would have happened.


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#20 scheivlak

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Posted 09 September 2012 - 21:51

I doubt that would have happened.

:up: Especially since Koba - who did get into Q3- got out to pick up some places.

#21 syph0nJZ05

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Posted 09 September 2012 - 22:00

I doubt that would have happened.

Well I guess we'll just never know now. But the fact that Perez did start on hard does suggest that his side of the garage would have likely been considering that strategy option even before quali. And if you couple that with the fact that we have seen a few non-runners in Q3 this year for exactly those strategic reasons, then I don't think it's unlikely.

:up: Especially since Koba - who did get into Q3- got out to pick up some places.

Well Koba only picked up one place - Alonso - and that was only because of his mechanical issue.

#22 Clatter

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Posted 09 September 2012 - 22:06

Well I guess we'll just never know now. But the fact that Perez did start on hard does suggest that his side of the garage would have likely been considering that strategy option even before quali. And if you couple that with the fact that we have seen a few non-runners in Q3 this year for exactly those strategic reasons, then I don't think it's unlikely.


Well Koba only picked up one place - Alonso - and that was only because of his mechanical issue.


They might have, but it's far more likely they would of taken the same route as everyone else and starting on hards was a decision taken as a consequence of Q.

#23 scheivlak

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Posted 09 September 2012 - 22:06

Well I guess we'll just never know now. But the fact that Perez did start on hard does suggest that his side of the garage would have likely been considering that strategy option even before quali. And if you couple that with the fact that we have seen a few non-runners in Q3 this year for exactly those strategic reasons, then I don't think it's unlikely.

If you´re outside the top 10 you make your strategy based on the situation after Q. Some others outside of Q3 made the same choice.
For an answer what they would do if Perez got into Q3 look no further than what was Koba's choice.


Well Koba only picked up one place - Alonso - and that was only because of his mechanical issue.

And still they did just that. Which only shows that they were not thinking about not going out at all or just a parade lap on hards.

Edited by scheivlak, 09 September 2012 - 22:08.


#24 sharo

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Posted 09 September 2012 - 22:09

No, Hamilton was pacing his laps and had some reserve IMO.

#25 rijole1

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Posted 09 September 2012 - 22:12

Don't think so, Hamilton had it under control.

#26 syph0nJZ05

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Posted 09 September 2012 - 22:19

If you´re outside the top 10 you make your strategy based on the situation after Q. Some others outside of Q3 made the same choice.
For an answer what they would do if Perez got into Q3 look no further than what was Koba's choice.

And still they did just that. Which only shows that they were not thinking about not going out at all or just a parade lap on hards.

That's not true at all. The two sides of the garage do very different things. Just look at Spain this year; both Saubers got into Q3, Perez did a quali run and came 6th, whereas Koba didn't set a time so that he could choose his tyres. It's a strategy that Sauber and others have already shown this year.

#27 Afterburner

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Posted 09 September 2012 - 22:22

Could Perez have won in Monza? In hindsight, I don't think it was impossible. Would it have happened if he had pitted two laps earlier? Probably not.

#28 syph0nJZ05

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Posted 09 September 2012 - 22:23

They might have, but it's far more likely they would of taken the same route as everyone else and starting on hards was a decision taken as a consequence of Q.

I know what you mean - the norm is to run in Q3. But just because a team starts on primes doesn't mean it's necessarily a consequence of their qualifying result. See my post below for a counter example.

#29 syph0nJZ05

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Posted 09 September 2012 - 22:25

To answer the OP's question - I think Hamilton had it in the bag today and definitely had more in his pocket if he needed it. Having said that I think he would have been able to catch Button if Button hadn't retired.

#30 scheivlak

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Posted 09 September 2012 - 22:31

That's not true at all. The two sides of the garage do very different things. Just look at Spain this year; both Saubers got into Q3, Perez did a quali run and came 6th, whereas Koba didn't set a time so that he could choose his tyres. It's a strategy that Sauber and others have already shown this year.

Not the most convincing example, to say the least :D

Kobayashi stopped on the circuit after Q2 with an hydraulic problem. That´s why he didn´t set a time in Q3, even though he very much liked to:
"I believe I could have been fighting for a top five position, and this was what I was looking forward to. But then, after the chequered flag at the end of Q2, I was told on the radio that I had to stop the car because of an hydraulic problem." http://forix.autospo...&...0005014&c=0

#31 syph0nJZ05

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Posted 09 September 2012 - 22:35

Not the most convincing example, to say the least :D

Kobayashi stopped on the circuit after Q2 with an hydraulic problem. That´s why he didn´t set a time in Q3, even though he very much liked to:
"I believe I could have been fighting for a top five position, and this was what I was looking forward to. But then, after the chequered flag at the end of Q2, I was told on the radio that I had to stop the car because of an hydraulic problem." http://forix.autospo...&...0005014&c=0

Haha, not the best choice. But you don't have to look much further than that qualifying session to see that Vettel did exactly what I described, see here.

#32 BigWicks

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Posted 09 September 2012 - 22:39

In qualifying the hard tyres didn't seem that much slower, which then makes me wonder how he managed to be consistently 1.5s a lap faster on medium tyres on his second stint without suffering any obvious degradation.


medium tyres probably 0.5s faster, also he was on tyres which were 10-15 laps newer than everyone around him.

#33 DrF

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Posted 09 September 2012 - 23:01

I wonder sometimes if it's not better to put the harder compound on your car for your last run in quali, so you start on the better tyre, even if you are compromised in terms of grid position? Not sure if you have to start on the tyres you set your fastest lap on or the tyres you were on at the end of quali, anyone know? It helped Seb last weekend and helped Perez today, despite starting so far back... Worth a try?

Edited by DrF, 09 September 2012 - 23:02.


#34 jee

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Posted 10 September 2012 - 06:40

Doing something different than the other teams? Hell no!

#35 Clatter

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Posted 10 September 2012 - 07:13

I wonder sometimes if it's not better to put the harder compound on your car for your last run in quali, so you start on the better tyre, even if you are compromised in terms of grid position? Not sure if you have to start on the tyres you set your fastest lap on or the tyres you were on at the end of quali, anyone know? It helped Seb last weekend and helped Perez today, despite starting so far back... Worth a try?


It's the tyres you do your fastest lap on that you have to use. Some teams did buck the trend earlier in the season, but I think in most cases it not only compromised Q, but also the race.

#36 sailor

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Posted 10 September 2012 - 07:29

Ah, but then he probably would have started on mediums, which gets rid of the main factor of his success.

Pretty much the same story as Kimi.

Quali woes are the reason for better race showing.

#37 Bloggsworth

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Posted 10 September 2012 - 08:01

No, but he might have if he'd started on the first 2 rows of the grid.

#38 fisssssi

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Posted 10 September 2012 - 08:09

No, but he might have if he'd started on the first 2 rows of the grid.


They tried that in Belgium, it didn't work...

#39 metz

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Posted 10 September 2012 - 17:11

But, perhaps even more important, Lewis was just cruising for quite a few laps during this last stint. He simply had a lot in reserve.

This.
Catching is one thing...passing is another.
Had Button not had a mechanical, Perez would have been 3rd.
The Macs were just too strong at this track.

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#40 undersquare

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Posted 10 September 2012 - 17:19

It did look like they pitted him too late. Whether he could have won?? Anyway the talk of great tactics is wrong I think - he'd have been closer to winning with an earlier stop.

#41 Clatter

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Posted 11 September 2012 - 07:59

It did look like they pitted him too late. Whether he could have won?? Anyway the talk of great tactics is wrong I think - he'd have been closer to winning with an earlier stop.


But would the softs have lasted many more laps at that pace?

#42 Jon83

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Posted 11 September 2012 - 08:32

I think Hamilton probably had something in reserve. The fact that the gap was coming down didn't really tell you much. I suppose if Perez had passed Alonso a little sooner we might have saw something but I don't think the result was ever in doubt.

#43 hmm

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Posted 11 September 2012 - 10:29

If you look at the comparison of Hamilton and Perez laptimes you can see that for the first few laps after his stop Perez did not actually catch Hamilton at all.

Only after lap 34 Perez starts to catch when there seems to be a constant increase of in Hamilton's times which I assume is when he started to take it easy.

Also if you compare Perez's times before (1.30.1) and after (1.29.0) the stop the speed advantage seems to be about 1s/lap so as the difference was 4.3 seconds at the end, I don't think pitting 2 laps earlier would have done much difference.

However, this is a really interesting speculation. I'm always very interested in the strategic analysis of the races.

#44 Baddoer

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Posted 11 September 2012 - 18:58

Just rewatched the race, he also lost about 2 seconds on his rather slow pitstop.

#45 Tauhid

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Posted 11 September 2012 - 19:02

Doubt Perez could have won the race since Lewis clearly seemed more than confident to just cruise his way to a win. I think Ferrari has found themseleves the best replacement for Massa already. A talented, fast and confident driver who can potentially win WDC's in the future. He has a good future but I hope Ferrari finally does itself good by signing this guy. Sponsors, bucket load of money and a great talent on their hands and off the counter for other teams to poach from.