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Jenson vs Lewis - 2012 Scorecard - Part III


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#1101 Requiem84

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 10:34

Why will they still have the MP4-27 next year?

If its not then any such conclusions are null and void.


Averaging their qualifying performance with the MP4-27, the 26 and the 25, it was 0,2-0,4.

What makes you think that would be any different in the 28 next year? It's not as if about 50 races don't give you an objective measurement of their intrinsical speed difference.

Button is a slower qualifier. That's a fact.

Racepacewise, there pretty even. Although, I'd give Hamilton the edge. Qualifying is a completely different matter.

Edited by Requiem84, 13 October 2012 - 10:44.


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#1102 slmk

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 10:58

I'm not saying you are wrong, Just pointing out that in this case "In the end, LH delivered the lap when it counted." is not quite the right term unless you have "In hindsight" in the beginning.

It's all relative to the circumstances which are and are not in the drivers control. Yes, Jenson was at fault on his first run.

Example:
If Senna had pipped Lewis in Q1, it in the same sense one could have said "In the end, JB delivered the lap when it counted."

Perhaps Jenson could have made it into Q3 if the yellow flags had not come out, then that lap would have been part of the "counted" part of qualifying.

Bottom line is the drivers and teams can't predict future events. When it "counts" is very difficult to predict. Shit happens.


He said yellow flags weren't the issue. You're also talking with the benefit of hindsight, hence contradicting your own post.

#1103 Lazy

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 11:04

He said yellow flags weren't the issue. You're also talking with the benefit of hindsight, hence contradicting your own post.


He didn't say that, he said his lap was a bit scruffy. MW said he missed the cut by 4/1000ths so you could be pretty sure he would have got through without the yellows.

He didn't though, that's racing, let's hope he can make the best of a new set of tyres at the start.

#1104 P123

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 11:23

I'm not saying you are wrong, Just pointing out that in this case "In the end, LH delivered the lap when it counted." is not quite the right term unless you have "In hindsight" in the beginning.

It's all relative to the circumstances which are and are not in the drivers control. Yes, Jenson was at fault on his first run.

Example:
If Senna had pipped Lewis in Q1, it in the same sense one could have said "In the end, JB delivered the lap when it counted."

Perhaps Jenson could have made it into Q3 if the yellow flags had not come out, then that lap would have been part of the "counted" part of qualifying.

Bottom line is the drivers and teams can't predict future events. When it "counts" is very difficult to predict. Shit happens.


Probably the correct phrasing should have been 'finally delivered the lap when it counted'.

#1105 Dalton007

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 11:25

MAC PR:
"I locked up in the final sector on my first Q2 lap, ran wide and had to go down to first gear – losing quite a lot of time in the process – so I reckon there was easily a couple of tenths that I could have had there. Then, on my final Q2 run, I lost time because of the yellow flags. I knew I could have gained a couple of extra tenths in that final sector, but as things panned out I couldn't improve because of the yellows. It's just one of those things, but I'll go forward from here tomorrow."



#1106 P123

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 11:27

He didn't say that, he said his lap was a bit scruffy. MW said he missed the cut by 4/1000ths so you could be pretty sure he would have got through without the yellows.

He didn't though, that's racing, let's hope he can make the best of a new set of tyres at the start.


Only thing I would raise is that the yellows were there for a number of drivers who actually improved, therefore all of them were handicapped to some degree by the yellow. JB locked up a couple of times- indicated he lost more time in the one which wasn't shown on TV replays. Locking up seems to be a bit of a theme for McLaren this weekend but I'm sure JB has the race pace to come through the field, and possibly fight for a podium.

#1107 Force Ten

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 11:36

Only thing I would raise is that the yellows were there for a number of drivers who actually improved, therefore all of them were handicapped to some degree by the yellow. JB locked up a couple of times- indicated he lost more time in the one which wasn't shown on TV replays. Locking up seems to be a bit of a theme for McLaren this weekend but I'm sure JB has the race pace to come through the field, and possibly fight for a podium.

Well, he did 20.8 on his last lap and on his botched lap where he ran wide he did 20.7. So no, not buying it. He probably lifted more than others. Has done it before.

#1108 ZooL

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 11:43

Mark Hughes has said at Suzuka Hamilton had a broken rear damper all weekend that McLaren did not spot. Does that count in the scorecard?

Anyway another weekend ruined by a technical failure on the car, where's Kvothe and the sig...

#1109 Kvothe

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 12:10

Mark Hughes has said at Suzuka Hamilton had a broken rear damper all weekend that McLaren did not spot. Does that count in the scorecard?

Anyway another weekend ruined by a technical failure on the car, where's Kvothe and the sig...


It has been noted.

#1110 as65p

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 12:11

Mark Hughes has said at Suzuka Hamilton had a broken rear damper all weekend that McLaren did not spot. Does that count in the scorecard?


Enough said.

#1111 ZooL

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 12:28

Enough said.

Hamilton wouldn't say what it was, but Hughes said McLaren confirmed it was a rear damper.

"I hoped it wasn't my fault, but fortunately the guys did a lot of analysis after the race and found our that we had a failure on part of the rear suspension, so that's comforting."



#1112 skid solo

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 12:38

Enough said.


At least that's cleared that up....

#1113 whitevisor

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 12:43

Didn't watch the qualifying, but I like the result ALOT. Less of a chance for Whitmarsh's devices to come into play in the race.

Is the score 16 - 0 now? Or 13 - 3? The Qualifying score has concluded either way.
Races its what? 13 - 3 or something?

Edited by whitevisor, 13 October 2012 - 12:46.


#1114 WitnessX

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 12:46

Mark Hughes has said at Suzuka Hamilton had a broken rear damper all weekend that McLaren did not spot. Does that count in the scorecard?

Anyway another weekend ruined by a technical failure on the car, where's Kvothe and the sig...

Reading around (and yes I'm making a guess and can't prove it) the damper was still functioning (it was still damping - hence it would not show up as faulty on telemetry), the mechanical fault appears to have been in the "setting changes" mechanics, which meant the changes made were not producing the expected result in the balance.

Edited by WitnessX, 13 October 2012 - 12:52.


#1115 skid solo

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 12:54

Well, he did 20.8 on his last lap and on his botched lap where he ran wide he did 20.7. So no, not buying it. He probably lifted more than others. Has done it before.


Perez, Kimi and Rosberg all improved despite the yellow flag

#1116 robefc

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 13:00

Reading around (and yes I'm making a guess and can't prove it) the damper was still functioning (it was still damping - hence it would not show up as faulty on telemetry), the mechanical fault appears to have been in the "setting changes" mechanics, which meant the changes made were not producing the expected result in the balance.


Sounds about right to me, Lewis clarified it wasn't a complete failure of the part.

Bad luck for JB today, not sure where he could have ended up, Lewis maxed the car I think, hopefully p3 is better than p2 because of clean side and better than p1 because of slipstream up the straight...I might be optimistic there though!

Not sure Lewis can be characterised as lucky in q1 as senna was slower by two tenths in the first sector anyway but boy it was a scruffy session and nerve racking one at that!




Edited by robefc, 13 October 2012 - 13:03.


#1117 Force Ten

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 13:02

Perez, Kimi and Rosberg all improved despite the yellow flag

Funny that you managed not to read what you responded to. Let's try a different approach, shall we?

He
probably
lifted
more
than
others


#1118 BillBald

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 13:10

Funny that you managed not to read what you responded to. Let's try a different approach, shall we?

He
probably
lifted
more
than
others


Jenson probably did lift more than others. He's done so before. But in this case you can't really say he got it wrong. If he hadn't lifted a lot, it would have been his fastest S3, because previously he messed up in that sector.

But he should never have been in that position. Sector 3 of Korea resembles a street circuit. At Monaco, would you say it's a good idea to wait until the very end of a session? Maybe if it's Q3, and you need the extra bit of speed to get on the front row. Jenson wasn't marginal on pace, he made a mistake on his first run and just needed to avoid mistakes to get through.

Another McLaren team failure. They never seem to learn.

Edited by BillBald, 13 October 2012 - 13:11.


#1119 WitnessX

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 13:48

:) you know better

I "know" that I don't "know" what what the qualifying would be like between them on the MP4-28 and 2013 tyres. and I can't see that anybody does "know" otherwise and never will.

I can see that Jenson appears to be "not totally happy" with the '27, or rather the car it has mutated into, and appears to be less suited to it.

Perhaps the '28 will be designed more with Jensons driving dynamics in mind and lessons learned from this year, and could be less suited to Lewis. So I don't see one can automatically assume that Lewis would have the same advantages he has had in the past. I am talking about a Button/Perez '28 and not what would have been a Hamilton/Button '28.

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#1120 peroa

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 13:52

I "know" that I don't "know" what what the qualifying would be like between them on the MP4-28 and 2013 tyres. and I can't see that anybody does "know" otherwise and never will.

I can see that Jenson appears to be "not totally happy" with the '27, or rather the car it has mutated into, and appears to be less suited to it.

Perhaps the '28 will be designed more with Jensons driving dynamics in mind and lessons learned from this year, and could be less suited to Lewis. So I don't see one can automatically assume that Lewis would have the same advantages he has had in the past. I am talking about a Button/Perez '28 and not what would have been a Hamilton/Button '28.

Emm, it's the second car JB claims to have had vital input in the designing phase, especially the 27, so that doesn't fly, unfortunately.

#1121 OoxLox

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 13:59

Jenson probably did lift more than others. He's done so before. But in this case you can't really say he got it wrong. If he hadn't lifted a lot, it would have been his fastest S3, because previously he messed up in that sector.

But he should never have been in that position. Sector 3 of Korea resembles a street circuit. At Monaco, would you say it's a good idea to wait until the very end of a session? Maybe if it's Q3, and you need the extra bit of speed to get on the front row. Jenson wasn't marginal on pace, he made a mistake on his first run and just needed to avoid mistakes to get through.

Another McLaren team failure. They never seem to learn.


This, and they took a stupid risk leaving Hamilton in the garage in Q1, something that's bitten them in the arse on quite a few occasions in the past without the lesson seeming to sink in. Ferrari got Alonso out and made sure he'd go through, but McLaren were willing to take a massive gamble just to save a set of tyres.

#1122 peroa

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 14:02

This, and they took a stupid risk leaving Hamilton in the garage in Q1, something that's bitten them in the arse on quite a few occasions in the past without the lesson seeming to sink in. Ferrari got Alonso out and made sure he'd go through, but McLaren were willing to take a massive gamble just to save a set of tyres.

And then they sent him out in Q2 when he was clear.

#1123 WitnessX

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 14:07

..
Another McLaren team failure. They never seem to learn.

I think (honest!) the root problem is the sensitivity of the MP4-27 to set-up changes, it appears to have a "lumpy carpet" problem. If you tread on a lump in a carpet it disappears but then re-appears somewhere else. Hence getting it to work optimally for both types of tyre/tyre conditions, under all track conditions and under all fuel loads is a big problem.

#1124 robefc

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 14:24

I "know" that I don't "know" what what the qualifying would be like between them on the MP4-28 and 2013 tyres. and I can't see that anybody does "know" otherwise and never will.

I can see that Jenson appears to be "not totally happy" with the '27, or rather the car it has mutated into, and appears to be less suited to it.

Perhaps the '28 will be designed more with Jensons driving dynamics in mind and lessons learned from this year, and could be less suited to Lewis. So I don't see one can automatically assume that Lewis would have the same advantages he has had in the past. I am talking about a Button/Perez '28 and not what would have been a Hamilton/Button '28.


Regardless of the rights and wrongs I reckon most people in F1 will take the view that it's likely Lewis could be a couple of tenths quicker on avg in quali in the macca next year so if button is say 6th on the grid a couple of tenths off second the assumption will be Lewis could have been second.

Easy way to put all that speculation to bed will be for JB to win a load of races from pole...or from anywhere actually!

Edited by robefc, 13 October 2012 - 14:27.


#1125 WitnessX

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 14:49

Emm, it's the second car JB claims to have had vital input in the designing phase, especially the 27, so that doesn't fly, unfortunately.

I'd guess that there were two drivers who had input on the '27.

The '27 wasn't so bad at the beginning of the year. The problems really started occurring when at Barcelona with their sudden concept change with the nose, which I'd guess that threw their set-up information off. IIRC there was also work done on evaluating different brakes, special tyre heating methods, electronic help and suspensions. So the '27 we have now bears little resemblance to the one at the beginning of the season. Not so much "designed" as adapted from weekend to weekend.

http://uk.eurosport....-014604418.html

Button is also well aware that the departure of Lewis Hamilton means that he will now be central to the work this winter on the 2013 contender.
"It is better for me going forward to the end of the year for next year's car, yes," he said.




#1126 whitevisor

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 14:50

I bet there is still going to be Lewis VS Jenson thread next year....

#1127 Dalton007

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 14:54

Jenson starting on softs is going to be interesting. If he can make up places at the beginning and overtake cars quickly, he could be in for a podium position. I wonder how long the super softs will last, though? The super softs might come in handy in the final stint. I can't imagine Jenson doing a one stop. It's going to be two for most drivers tomorrow.

#1128 whitevisor

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 15:01

Tyre wear is pretty low in Korea. The last track with low wear was Monza so a podium might be possible if it was soft / hard. It's going to be hard with the tyres so close.

#1129 WitnessX

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 15:03

Regardless of the rights and wrongs I reckon most people in F1 will take the view that it's likely Lewis could be a couple of tenths quicker on avg in quali in the macca next year so if button is say 6th on the grid a couple of tenths off second the assumption will be Lewis could have been second.

Easy way to put all that speculation to bed will be for JB to win a load of races from pole...or from anywhere actually!

Don't get me wrong, I appreciate the consensus of opinion. It's when its presented as indisputable "fact" that I have the problem. Just because something has happened is not proof that it will(would) happen again, especially if the circumstances are different.

If there was any certainty about the future, Betting Shops would not exist.

Edited by WitnessX, 13 October 2012 - 15:09.


#1130 eronrules

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 15:28

look at the bright side, jensen is close to perez, at least perez will follow him :p

p.s jenson did come onto BBC and told yellow was the cause, and the way he said it (body language) was clear that it was just for the sake of excuse. one good thing going for jenson will be the opportunity to choose tire.

#1131 skid solo

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 15:40

Funny that you managed not to read what you responded to. Let's try a different approach, shall we?

He
probably
lifted
more
than
others


I read it thanks. You seem very certain about your argument but still use the word 'probably' lifted more than others..
But you don't actually know if he did or not..

#1132 thesham01

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 16:00

I "know" that I don't "know" what what the qualifying would be like between them on the MP4-28 and 2013 tyres. and I can't see that anybody does "know" otherwise and never will.

I can see that Jenson appears to be "not totally happy" with the '27, or rather the car it has mutated into, and appears to be less suited to it.

Perhaps the '28 will be designed more with Jensons driving dynamics in mind and lessons learned from this year, and could be less suited to Lewis. So I don't see one can automatically assume that Lewis would have the same advantages he has had in the past. I am talking about a Button/Perez '28 and not what would have been a Hamilton/Button '28.



Come on, you don't actually believe that do you?

#1133 PinkZepStones

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 16:08

I bet there is still going to be Lewis VS Jenson thread next year....



Well Jenson will underqualify and start 6th most races and Lewis will overqualify and start 5th, irony being they have to leave identical cars to be close on the grid.

#1134 bauss

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 16:47

I suspect Jenson can do what Perez did in Monza.... seems one stopping may be possible here.

So use the softs for about 30+ laps and then new options later to hunt down people. He is still in there for big points

#1135 WitnessX

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 16:50

Come on, you don't actually believe that do you?

The points made in the post are open to debate. My beliefs are irrelevant.

#1136 Force Ten

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 16:52

I suspect Jenson can do what Perez did in Monza.... seems one stopping may be possible here.

So use the softs for about 30+ laps and then new options later to hunt down people. He is still in there for big points

Being McLaren there is about an equal chance in starting on supersofts, get a sluggish start, then use up the best edge of supersofts in dirty air behind the slower cars, then "undercut" into traffic with tyres that in fact still have about 7 laps in them, then sit behind a slower car that used better pit stop strategy until the rest of the race. Seems to be the MO of McLarens strategic department concerning Button this year.

#1137 WitnessX

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 17:00

I suspect Jenson can do what Perez did in Monza.... seems one stopping may be possible here.

So use the softs for about 30+ laps and then new options later to hunt down people. He is still in there for big points

I can't see one stop for anybody, there' to many "wiggly-waggly" parts for that to happen, and the time lost in a pit-stop looks to short.*

Stick the super-softs on go for it, and start thinking about strategy after the first lap..*

* Warning, comments done without research, could differ from actual reality.




#1138 peroa

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 17:03

I can't see one stop for anybody, there' to many "wiggly-waggly" parts for that to happen, and the time lost in a pit-stop looks to short.*

Stick the super-softs on go for it, and start thinking about strategy after the first lap..*

* Warning, comments done without research, could differ from actual reality.

IMHO the "sane" thing to do is to start on the softs and do as many good laps as possible and see what happens.

#1139 BillBald

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 18:47

Being McLaren there is about an equal chance in starting on supersofts, get a sluggish start, then use up the best edge of supersofts in dirty air behind the slower cars, then "undercut" into traffic with tyres that in fact still have about 7 laps in them, then sit behind a slower car that used better pit stop strategy until the rest of the race. Seems to be the MO of McLarens strategic department concerning Button this year.


I fear you may be right.



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#1140 BillBald

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 18:48

IMHO the "sane" thing to do is to start on the softs and do as many good laps as possible and see what happens.


I agree 100%, but what are the odds on Macca actually doing that?



#1141 BillBald

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 18:52

I can't see one stop for anybody, there' to many "wiggly-waggly" parts for that to happen, and the time lost in a pit-stop looks to short.*

Stick the super-softs on go for it, and start thinking about strategy after the first lap..*

* Warning, comments done without research, could differ from actual reality.


I don't remember how much time is lost, but it 'looks' to me like a fairly long pit lane (with an additional cross-country section before you get into the pit lane), so I would guess more than 20 secs lost for a pitstop.

One stop might not be possible, but it's worth a try IMO. If the tyres let go, stop again.



#1142 BillBald

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 18:57

I think (honest!) the root problem is the sensitivity of the MP4-27 to set-up changes, it appears to have a "lumpy carpet" problem. If you tread on a lump in a carpet it disappears but then re-appears somewhere else. Hence getting it to work optimally for both types of tyre/tyre conditions, under all track conditions and under all fuel loads is a big problem.


If it was a simple case of Jenson having setup problems, it wouldn't be so bad. I'm not very convinced though. If it was the balance, Jenson would be saying so.

But I like the "lumpy carpet" idea - might use that myself sometime. :)



#1143 Fatgadget

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 19:15

I bet there is still going to be Lewis VS Jenson thread next year....

Id imagine Lewis will still spank him! :D

#1144 BernieEc

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 19:17

I suspect Jenson can do what Perez did in Monza.... seems one stopping may be possible here.

So use the softs for about 30+ laps and then new options later to hunt down people. He is still in there for big points


The difference in tyre compounds between those of Monza and Korea are very different. The difference between the compounds for korea is much less. This might affect his hunting down towards the end stages........but its worth a try as he really doesn't have anything to lose

#1145 eronrules

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 19:21

I bet there is still going to be Lewis VS Jenson thread next year....


that's the safest bet in the world :smoking:

#1146 skidmarks

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 19:24

I "know" that I don't "know" what what the qualifying would be like between them on the MP4-28 and 2013 tyres. and I can't see that anybody does "know" otherwise and never will.

I can see that Jenson appears to be "not totally happy" with the '27, or rather the car it has mutated into, and appears to be less suited to it.

Perhaps the '28 will be designed more with Jensons driving dynamics in mind and lessons learned from this year, and could be less suited to Lewis. So I don't see one can automatically assume that Lewis would have the same advantages he has had in the past. I am talking about a Button/Perez '28 and not what would have been a Hamilton/Button '28.


I was under the impression that any race car is designed to be as neutral in its handling characteristics as possible, rather than aiming to fit a drivers style. And the same goes for its development through out the year. It might turn out that the upgrades tip the balance of the car in one direction or another, but typically, the intent is to make the car as stable as possible for the track.

For a large part of the year, the development and setup strategy was pretty much under Jenson's direction. And this didn't exactly work out as planned, resulting in the lowest point at Canada where he was lapped by his team mate, who has the same car with the same major parts.

So I have to ask. Given that this years car was, if we are to believe Jenson's pre-season interviews, designed with a large part of the driver input coming from his side and as was the development program; what makes you or anybody else think that next year will be any different for him?

Are you not grasping at straws a little bit? Because I must be honest; it seems that way from where I'm sitting.

#1147 peroa

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 19:29

I agree 100%, but what are the odds on Macca actually doing that?

I'll be surprised with anything else.

#1148 Lazy

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 20:06

I agree 100%, but what are the odds on Macca actually doing that?


He was on super softs, I believe, when he did the strong heavy run in FP2. You could argue for a short stint on SS, longer stint on S, then finish off on SS again. He needs to be pitting at different times to the rest.

#1149 Force Ten

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 20:54

He was on super softs, I believe, when he did the strong heavy run in FP2. You could argue for a short stint on SS, longer stint on S, then finish off on SS again. He needs to be pitting at different times to the rest.

If he is on SS and gets stuck behind 12th car at the start then short stint will send him smack dab behind one of the Caterhams. Then the guy he slept behind in the first stint will overcut straight ahead of the Caterham in front of him when the Caterham pits.

#1150 BillBald

BillBald
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Posted 13 October 2012 - 21:33

He was on super softs, I believe, when he did the strong heavy run in FP2. You could argue for a short stint on SS, longer stint on S, then finish off on SS again. He needs to be pitting at different times to the rest.


He needs to run longer than the cars in front of him, in the first stint.

Maybe he can do that on SS, but more likely on Softs.