Jenson made the first tyres last 5 laps longer than Hamilton. We could assume that the pitstops would have evened out, that the undercut would have kept both Vettel and Hamilton ahead, or Jenson would have been able to come back strong with 5-10 lap fresher tyres at the end and taken a glorious victory. It's all moot, frankly. I do think it's unreasonable to argue that the only 'right' prediction is that Hamilton would have had an easy win despite his interview, because of the many variables which had yet to play out. At the same time there's surely no doubt that from what we saw, Hamilton was this weekends performance winner for the scorecard.
Actually Jenson stayed out 2 laps longer than Lewis, 4 laps longer than Vettel.
At that point in the race, it looked like Vettel might have to go for a 3 stop, while Jenson could make a 2 stop work. With Lewis, it was not so clear.
It's been pointed out that if Jenson had pitted a lap earlier, he might have got out in front of Vettel, but it would have been risky and would have needed a really good pitstop, something McLaren can't reliably produce (and didn't this time for Jenson).
So although I've been very critical of McLaren strategy this year, I have no complaints this time. What Jenson needed was the kind of luck with the Safety Car that Vettel got in Melbourne. If he could have stayed out longer than Vettel on the next stint, and the SC came after Vettel pitted, Jenson would have taken the lead. Alternatively, he could have been on much fresher tyres at the end of the race.
The race didn't turn out as most observers were expecting, 3 stops was expected to be the norm, so Jenson's plan was not a bad one, and it seems that his setup struggles are over. In Hungary he was around half a second slower than Lewis in quali, but then had to stop early in the race after a slowish first stint. I thought that something similar was happening again in the early laps, so I was very happy to see the late pitstop.