19 replies to this topic

[Claudiu]

Hi, I was thinking about this today and I think it's an interesting topic for discussion.

Facts:

- we have 6 races left
- Ferrari is not the fastest package anymore but have a good all rounder and reliable car at this point
- McLaren have the fastest package by far
- RedBull is good but not anywhere near like last year

Given these facts I would like to start a topic on the chances that Ferrari have to win the title with Fernando even if they will not win any race this year.

Lets see what are their best and worst circuits for the 6 left and what are the best and worst possible finishes for them and what this means in the context of the WDC.

1) Competitive tracks

I see the next GP at Suzuka as possible the best track for Ferrari from the remaining 6 along with Brazil and maybe Austin(US) and India, I think that Ferrari can be faster than RedBull in Suzuka, the only problem is that McLaren have a very good shoot at a 1-2 finish which means that Alonso(if he is indeed faster than Vettel) will at best loose 10pt. compared to Hammy and gain on Vettel. A second place could be possible thought with some luck but a win I don't think its in the card, McLaren will be mighty there.

Along these lines I can continue for Brazil, India and US Gp's ... so from 6 races at best Alonso can get 4 podiums maybe even a lucky win but not more. That means he can loose 40pt at max compared to Hamilton but maybe less but gain on Vettel.

2) Uncompetitive tracks:
The other 2: Korea, Abu Dhabi should be very difficult races for Ferrari because even thought they have some long straights they also have sections that remind us of Singapore and Ferrari was lacking a lot there so the potential is there for non podium finishes and also its possible that RedBull can win there and have the upper hand over McLaren.

Of course I am speculating a lot here and by no means have a exhaustive analysis but only a starting point for a discussion :-) let's just suppose that we won't have any DNF's among the big teams, looking to this bigger picture I really see a very thought job for Fernando to get on top of this year WDC with possible the 3-rd fastest car on average.

His only advantage compared to 2010 is that this year the fastest car is McLaren and Hamilton is 52 pt. back but this is by no means insurmountable, I think that this championship will go down the wire in the last race everything is still up to grabs, without DNF's I still see McLaren as the main threat especially if they can string some 1-2 finishes in the next races.

[Massa]

I don't think Ferrari weakness is the slow track, but the bumps. Korea and Abu Dhabi tracks are very smooth, i expect Ferrari to bo strong there aswell. I think Alonso could finish at the podium at 5 races. Hamilton is the only driver who can beat Alonso because he have the fastest car right now, but i think he is able to finish ahead of Webber, Hamilton, Raikkonen, Grosjean, and to be on par with Vettel.

Edited by Massa, 27 September 2012 - 12:09.

[Sinceref189]

I don't think Ferrari weakness is the slow track, but the bumps. Korea and Abu Dhabi tracks are very smooth, i expect Ferrari to bo strong there aswell. I think Alonso could finish at the podium at 5 races. Hamilton is the only driver who can beat Alonso because he have the fastest car right now, but i think he is able to finish ahead of Webber, Hamilton, Raikkonen, Grosjean, and to be on par with Vettel.

This is very likely and Alonso is good at these remaining tracks bar america (could even suprise there) and of course Ferrari are bringing updates. So really the ball is in there court also rain is a possibility at these flyaway races and he is rampant in those conditions .

[Jamiednm]

Ferrari's/Alonso's biggest asset at the moment is reliability. Their second biggest asset is the unreliability of the McLaren. It's this that will decide the championship one way or another.

[Watkins74]

I don't think Ferrari weakness is the slow track, but the bumps. Korea and Abu Dhabi tracks are very smooth, i expect Ferrari to bo strong there aswell. I think Alonso could finish at the podium at 5 races. Hamilton is the only driver who can beat Alonso because he have the fastest car right now, but i think he is able to finish ahead of Webber, Hamilton, Raikkonen, Grosjean, and to be on par with Vettel.

Hamilton is 52 points behind....it's wait until next year for Lewis. Vettel is only 29 points behind. Vettel and Ferrari/Alonso beating themselves are the biggest worry now.

[Disgrace]

The only circuits the Ferrari has been off the pace recently were at Hungary and Singapore, both bumpy slow-speed circuits. They didn't seem too competitive at Spa in qualifying trim, but we saw how the Red Bull transformed from Q2 runner to podium finisher. Brazil looks like the only real bogey track left, but McLaren's updates should see them possibly dominate at Suzuka.

Edited by Disgrace, 27 September 2012 - 12:52.

[slmk]

Hamilton is 52 points behind....it's wait until next year for Lewis. Vettel is only 29 points behind. Vettel and Ferrari/Alonso beating themselves are the biggest worry now.

Don't say that, you'll jinx Alonso.

A DNF is all that is needed to keep this championship open.

[ayali]

Hamilton is 52 points behind....it's wait until next year for Lewis. Vettel is only 29 points behind. Vettel and Ferrari/Alonso beating themselves are the biggest worry now.

THIS ^^^

It's like Button said it's only Vettel and Alonso with a realistic shot at the title left
Korea and Abu Dhabi should produce good results and for the rest the Ferrari reliability should bring decent point finishes.

[Jon83]

Hopefully Vettel and Hamilton will take points off each other but I can't help thinking that we need one more win at least (as well as regular high-scoring finishes as has happened most of the season)

Edited by Jon83, 27 September 2012 - 13:37.

[Claudiu]

Without another win I really don't see Fernando winning ... like he said, you cannot expect or rely that the misfortune of your competitors will last forever ... I don't know what Ferrari has in store but I find it hard to believe that we can come up with a magic update that will lift us to the level of McLaren.

McLaren will maintain their lead to the end I think and if Button plays nice and let's Hamilton to win even if he is leading the race than that 52pt. gap will shrink very fast.

[Massa]

Hamilton will not win the last 6 races. Everybody talk like if Hamilton will win all the race, but even Vettel last year with his car didn't win more than three races, even Button in 2009, even Schumacher with the F2002 couldn't, and i don't think the Mclaren car is as fast as the F2004, and the Ferrari, Red Bull, Lotus cars as slow as the Williams or Mclaren of 2004.

Edited by Massa, 27 September 2012 - 14:23.

[Sinceref189]

Hamilton will not win the last 6 races. Everybody talk like if Hamilton will win all the race, but even Vettel last year with his car didn't win more than three races, even Button in 2009, even Schumacher with the F2002 couldn't, and i don't think the Mclaren car is as fast as the F2002, and the Ferrari, Red Bull, Lotus cars as slow as the Williams or Mclaren of 2002.

Hamilton HAS to be on the podium in all six races though , the battle realisticly is between Fernando and Vettel . Hamilton needs a DNF from either of these two, Suzuka is the pivot point for Lewis all hope is on that weekend.

[Disgrace]

They're all pivotal races, which is why part of the championship is the most fun.

[Ravenak]

Problem is, talking about (endless) probabilities is one thing, but there is only ONE reality.

And everytime this reality will unfold, race after race, the situation will change again, and again.

It doesn't make sense to draw speculative trends after all, because they're all wrong and different from reality.

Next WE's mindset will alter all our calculations because maybe Vettel will score a 25-0, or the opposite.

Edited by Ravenak, 27 September 2012 - 14:29.

[Massa]

So Autosport have to close this forum, because we all speculate before a race.

[Ravenak]

So Autosport have to close this forum, because we all speculate before a race.

There are lots of other stuff we can talk about

I like predictions too, it's exciting, but after a while, when you've laid out all the possible scenarios repeatedly, it just doesn't make sense anymore

What we need is for the racing to go ooooooooon. And in the meantime, relax

Edited by Ravenak, 27 September 2012 - 14:33.

[pdac]

Don't forget that, for example, Hamilton possibly lost 50 points in the last 3 races - half due to reliability, but the other half through no fault of his. The same could happen to Alonso (and/or Vettel, Hamilton Raikkonen or anyone else for that matter) in the next 6. It's still to early to call, I think.

[bub]

I expect Ferrari to remain competitive but not the best for the rest of the season. 2nd -3rd best car.

[Juggles]

Alonso has been on the podium eight times in the first fourteen races with three wins. He isn't suddenly going to start finishing 5th in every race, just as we can be about 99% sure Hamilton isn't going to win all six remaining races. As I said in another thread, I still see Hamilton as Alonso's biggest threat because he is the only driver who is threatening to go on a winning spree. I don't think the Red Bull will be that much better than the Ferrari or better full stop than the McLaren at most of the remaining tracks so I don't think Vettel can accumulate points at a fast enough rate to close down the gap.

If Alonso wins one of the six remaining races I think he will win the championship. If he doesn't finish outside the top 5 in any race then the only chance is Hamilton going on a rampage, which is statistically unlikely. Whichever way I cut it I can't see Alonso losing the championship unless he finishes outside the points in one race.

As for Ferrari (Alonso) competitiveness at tracks they will be where they have been for much of the season: qualifying around the third row and targetting podiums most weekends. None of the remaining tracks are really considered "unique" in terms of the attributes a car needs to be fast there (a la Monza) so I doubt Ferrari will be fastest anywhere.

The only caveat is rain. Ferrari have been much improved relative to the competition in the wet. A wet qualifying and a dry race would be ideal for Ferrari because on Sundays they have a car fast enough to keep the competition behind. A wet race is risky for them because it makes the DNF Alonso's rivals need more likely.

[SCUDmissile]

Our perception of car's competitiveness changes every race. You know, because of Monza and coming into Singapore some had Ferrari down as favourites. Nobody was saying RedBull.

It is amazing how the saying 'you're only as good as your last race' is so true in terms of our opinions, and we use the results of the last race for the rest of the season at times. That is the wron thing to do, especially in a season like this. I don't think Ferrari will be as bad as they were in Singapore, or at least it is unlikely that they will be. McLaren will be strong, but to expect them to be on it every race will be tough.