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Place The Points Competition 2012 after USA


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#1 Makarias

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Posted 19 November 2012 - 22:39

The standings after USA:
Pos Name Tot Latest
1) Costaz 1648 58
2) scheivlak 1635 57
3) race addicted 1632 49
4) DutchQuicksilver 1630 65
5) Dispenser89 1608 80
6) Fisichella_2001 1593 65
7) Grayson 1586 65
8) Anderis 1583 56
= Fastcake 1583 57
10) Makarias 1578 53
11) Crazy Canuck 1576 65
12) KWSN-DSM 1571 48
13) Bleu 1568 65
14) D82 1565 57
15) Apex 1561 53
16) mark f1 1559 65
17) Wlleiotl 1541 58
18) noikeee 1527 59
19) Brawn BGP 001 1524 53
20) AcuraF1 1521 65
21) shays 1513 75
22) kismet 1508 65
23) skylark68 1489 57
24) arcsine 1483 54
= Iscurrega 1483 59
26) August 1469 59
27) Estwald 1378 53
28) M2000-5 1301 53
A high scoring round late in the season. Costaz has a bit of a gap, but Dutchquicksilver had an even nicer round...

The entries


The Drivers' list
Driver Expect Surprise Beat
% % #
Mald 410,4 93,8 27
Senn 259,2 79,5 27
Pere 245,9 120,0 28
Koba 212,7 113,7 28
Räik 186,6 110,8 28
Alon 147,6 97,7 27
Gros 138,0 87,3 24
Hülk 123,3 61,6 22
Mass 112,1 75,9 17
diRe 101,4 53,5 17
Vett 87,8 75,8 3
Webb 72,7 61,4 1
Hami 67,7 55,9 0
Rosb 63,1 32,9 0
Butt 60,7 47,5 0
Verg 56,6 14,0 7
Ricc 44,6 11,6 3
Schu 36,4 19,3 0
Felipe Massa becomes the 10th driver to break his 100% expectation mark in 2012.

EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100%

surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2012 this is 28.


Guesses on P1-P5:
Hamilton Vettel Alonso Massa Button
M2000-5 339 August 359 * Potential 285 AcuraF1 140 M2000-5 342
August 336 M2000-5 357 * Forecast 274 Costaz 135 Brawn BGP 001 311
arcsine 319 kismet 346 Dispenser89 265 DutchQuicksilver134 Grayson 293
noikeee 315 AcuraF1 345 * Current 260 * Potential 132 AcuraF1 290
Apex 300 D82 343 Costaz 242 race addicted 130 Bleu 290
Wlleiotl 300 shays 341 AcuraF1 240 Dispenser89 129 kismet 290
Brawn BGP 001 299 Apex 340 Crazy Canuck 220 kismet 120 arcsine 285
mark f1 295 noikeee 335 Fisichella_2001 220 mark f1 115 August 282
Grayson 294 Estwald 330 DutchQuicksilver214 shays 115 Crazy Canuck 280
Fisichella_2001 291 mark f1 330 Makarias 211 Bleu 113 skylark68 280
kismet 289 Fisichella_2001 320 Bleu 206 * Forecast 113 Wlleiotl 280
Fastcake 283 Wlleiotl 320 scheivlak 206 Crazy Canuck 110 D82 275
race addicted 282 Makarias 318 mark f1 200 Grayson 110 Dispenser89 274
AcuraF1 280 arcsine 311 Fastcake 187 * Current 107 Costaz 272
Crazy Canuck 280 skylark68 310 kismet 186 Fisichella_2001 104 Fastcake 272
Bleu 275 Dispenser89 307 race addicted 180 Iscurrega 101 noikeee 272
Estwald 275 Anderis 306 shays 180 Wlleiotl 100 Fisichella_2001 271
shays 275 Bleu 301 Brawn BGP 001 178 KWSN-DSM 98 Anderis 268
Iscurrega 274 Brawn BGP 001 301 Grayson 170 Makarias 92 Makarias 267
Makarias 272 Crazy Canuck 300 Iscurrega 161 skylark68 88 scheivlak 266
Dispenser89 267 * Potential 298 Anderis 159 Fastcake 86 Apex 260
scheivlak 264 Iscurrega 293 August 152 D82 82 Estwald 260
DutchQuicksilver263 scheivlak 293 Apex 150 Apex 80 shays 247
Costaz 258 Grayson 292 Wlleiotl 150 August 78 DutchQuicksilver241
Anderis 251 * Forecast 287 D82 145 Anderis 75 mark f1 240
skylark68 251 DutchQuicksilver284 arcsine 132 noikeee 75 race addicted 226
D82 232 Fastcake 279 noikeee 131 scheivlak 71 Iscurrega 212
KWSN-DSM 225 * Current 273 Estwald 121 Estwald 60 KWSN-DSM 200
* Potential 215 Costaz 266 KWSN-DSM 120 Brawn BGP 001 59 * Potential 188
* Forecast 200 race addicted 255 skylark68 117 arcsine 54 * Forecast 172
* Current 190 KWSN-DSM 250 M2000-5 104 M2000-5 26 * Current 163
Alonso gets ever closer to a 100% surprise, naturally he'll want even more than six points in Brazil...

Guesses on P6-P10:
Räikkönen Grosjean Hülkenberg Maldonado Senna
* Potential 231 * Potential 121 KWSN-DSM 85 * Potential 70 * Potential 56
* Forecast 217 August 109 * Potential 78 * Forecast 47 Anderis 38
* Current 206 * Forecast 101 shays 70 Anderis 47 * Forecast 33
August 185 KWSN-DSM 100 D82 68 * Current 45 * Current 31
D82 159 shays 100 skylark68 62 race addicted 33 D82 27
shays 155 noikeee 98 * Forecast 56 Brawn BGP 001 27 Iscurrega 27
M2000-5 152 * Current 96 scheivlak 56 Fastcake 18 race addicted 25
Costaz 146 arcsine 83 Fastcake 55 Iscurrega 15 Dispenser89 21
noikeee 136 Makarias 83 * Current 53 noikeee 15 Fastcake 19
Grayson 135 Brawn BGP 001 80 Fisichella_2001 52 arcsine 14 Brawn BGP 001 18
scheivlak 126 Wlleiotl 80 race addicted 51 Dispenser89 12 Apex 15
Apex 125 Apex 75 arcsine 50 DutchQuicksilver 12 skylark68 14
KWSN-DSM 120 skylark68 75 Anderis 45 scheivlak 12 Grayson 12
Anderis 116 Costaz 71 DutchQuicksilver 45 skylark68 11 scheivlak 12
DutchQuicksilver116 race addicted 71 Estwald 45 Apex 10 Bleu 11
Bleu 115 Grayson 70 Brawn BGP 001 42 mark f1 10 AcuraF1 10
Makarias 114 DutchQuicksilver 69 Apex 40 Costaz 9 arcsine 10
Wlleiotl 110 scheivlak 67 Crazy Canuck 40 AcuraF1 8 mark f1 10
arcsine 109 Fastcake 66 Grayson 40 Grayson 7 DutchQuicksilver 9
mark f1 100 Anderis 65 kismet 40 Fisichella_2001 6 Fisichella_2001 9
race addicted 100 Dispenser89 65 Makarias 40 Crazy Canuck 5 Makarias 9
Iscurrega 98 Bleu 62 Wlleiotl 40 D82 5 Crazy Canuck 8
Fastcake 87 Crazy Canuck 60 noikeee 38 kismet 5 noikeee 6
Fisichella_2001 85 mark f1 60 Bleu 37 KWSN-DSM 5 KWSN-DSM 5
Crazy Canuck 80 D82 59 mark f1 35 Makarias 5 shays 5
kismet 79 Fisichella_2001 56 Iscurrega 34 shays 5 Wlleiotl 5
Brawn BGP 001 76 Iscurrega 56 Dispenser89 30 Wlleiotl 5 Costaz 4
skylark68 76 kismet 51 Costaz 27 Bleu 4 Estwald 3
Dispenser89 75 AcuraF1 45 AcuraF1 25 Estwald 3 August 2
AcuraF1 65 Estwald 40 M2000-5 8 August 0 kismet 2
Estwald 61 M2000-5 38 August 7 M2000-5 0 M2000-5 0

Grosjean needs a podium for a 100% surprise, Maldonado needs a P8 and Senna needs a P6. Hülkenberg needs a whole new season, but has done very nicely anyway.

The PTPC forecast
Name Forecast +/-
scheivlak 1690,3 3,0
Costaz 1688,7 7,0
DutchQuicksilver 1682,3 7,0
race addicted 1675,7 3,6
Dispenser89 1663,8 15,8
Fisichella_2001 1643,1 3,3
Grayson 1639,1 8,1
Anderis 1636,1 3,3
Fastcake 1629,1 -2,9
Crazy Canuck 1629,1 7,7
Makarias 1628,1 3,3
Bleu 1623,1 11,1
D82 1617,2 5,3
mark f1 1617,1 8,8
KWSN-DSM 1615,9 -2,1
Apex 1611,1 3,3
Wlleiotl 1591,1 3,3
noikeee 1581,1 3,3
shays 1577,9 9,0
AcuraF1 1576,1 11,1
Brawn BGP 001 1574,1 3,3
kismet 1564,9 11,1
skylark68 1544,3 2,0
arcsine 1533,1 3,3
Iscurrega 1526,2 10,9
August 1522,9 5,6
Estwald 1428,1 3,3
M2000-5 1349,9 4,6
Improving forecasts. Scary close at the front, and at this point it's better to analyse the top players' entries to have an idea about how things will pan out

than looking at this silly forecast...


Analysis of the top players' entries to have an idea about how things will pan out
sche Cost Dutc race Helps
Vett 293 266 284 255 scheivlak, DutchQuicksilver
Mass 71 135 134 130 Not scheivlak
Hülk 56 27 45 51 scheivlak
diRe 50 45 37 56 scheivlak, race addicted
Ricc 20 18 19 18 scheivlak (improbable)
Verg 36 11 23 30 Not Costaz
Petr 5 0 1 2 Yeah right, like that will happen
Kova 9 0 3 6 See Petrov
-----------------------------
Hami 264 258 263 282
Butt 266 272 241 226
Webb 212 225 232 228
Alon 206 242 214 180
Rosb 121 154 146 136
Räik 126 146 116 100
Schu 103 83 102 105
Gros 67 71 69 71
Pere 54 22 39 40
Koba 37 32 31 46
Mald 12 9 12 33
Senn 12 4 9 25
dela 0 0 0 0
Kart 0 0 0 0
Gloc 0 0 0 0
Pic 0 0 0 0

Drivers below the line will not impact the current relative positions of the top 4, so they help Costaz as he is in the lead going into the finale. So:
*DutchQuicksilver will want some miracle result with Massa and Vettel just in an OK position
*race addicted also wants Massa glory but along with di Resta
*scheivlak wants success for Vettel and Force India but to hell with Massa
*Costaz wants the guys below the line to occupy the top spots, easy now

Or am I wrong?

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#2 KWSN - DSM

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Posted 19 November 2012 - 23:19

I am mostly interested in which result will make the Champignon... :rotfl:

:cool:

#3 Costaz

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Posted 20 November 2012 - 10:49

I'm looking at the data for a while now, and trying to get my head around them... :drunk:

Actually, Massa is my 'poulain'. As I'm the current leader, any points that Massa scores don't improve anyone else's position (in comparison to me, that is :) ). Vettel, of course, is my weakness, so the big question is the difference of points taken between Vettel (+ Hulk, DiRe, Verg) and Massa. If I am not mistaken, scheivlak needs the difference to be higher than 13 points, to win it.

Two different scenarios of a tie:

Vet/Hul/Dir/Ver	Mass	
Costaz   	1648	0			  12	1660
scheivlak	1635	25			  0	1660
				
Costaz   	1648	0			   6	1654
scheivlak	1635	19			  0	1654

What happens then?

Edited by Costaz, 20 November 2012 - 14:35.


#4 Makarias

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Posted 20 November 2012 - 10:57

A draw is a draw :)