6 replies to this topic

[Makarias]

2012 final standings after Brazil:

Pos Name Tot Latest
1) Costaz 1706 58
2) DutchQuicksilver 1700 70
3) race addicted 1694 62
4) scheivlak 1693 58
5) Dispenser89 1681 73
6) Fisichella_2001 1648 55
7) Grayson 1641 55
8) Fastcake 1638 55
9) Anderis 1634 51
= Crazy Canuck 1634 58
11) Makarias 1633 55
12) KWSN-DSM 1628 57
13) D82 1626 61
14) Bleu 1625 57
15) mark f1 1622 63
16) Apex 1616 55
17) Wlleiotl 1596 55
18) AcuraF1 1587 66
19) shays 1586 73
20) noikeee 1582 55
21) Brawn BGP 001 1579 55
22) kismet 1572 64
23) skylark68 1553 64
24) arcsine 1538 55
25) Iscurrega 1526 43
26) August 1520 51
27) Estwald 1433 55
28) M2000-5 1352 51

Pretty high scores from a season finale, but more importantly:
Congratulations Costaz to the 2012 PTPC title!
Congrats also to runner-up DutchQuicksilver
and third place finisher race addicted rounding out the podium. Well done all of you!
Possibly disappointed in fourth is scheivlak, who was title favourite according to the stupid forecast system, but Vettel didn't score highly in Brazil whereas Massa did...

The entries


The Drivers' list

Driver Expect Surprise Beat
% % #
Mald 410,4 93,8 27
Senn 259,2 79,5 27
Pere 245,9 120,0 28
Koba 220,0 117,6 28
Räik 187,5 111,3 28
Alon 157,8 104,5 28
Hülk 146,6 73,3 25
Gros 138,0 87,3 24
Mass 127,9 86,5 23
diRe 101,4 53,5 17
Vett 90,4 78,1 4
Webb 78,0 65,8 1
Verg 75,4 18,6 10
Butt 70,0 54,8 0
Hami 67,7 55,9 0
Rosb 63,1 32,9 0
Ricc 44,6 11,6 3
Schu 41,5 22,0 0

Fernando Alonso finishes the season with becoming the fourth 100% surprise of 2012. Well done!
Noteworthy is that the ten drivers past their 100% expectation marks are the drivers of exactly five teams: Williams, Sauber, Lotus, Ferrari and Force India. So you

could say that all other teams have had a disappointing season unlike this midfield-heavy quintet.

EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2012 this is 28.


Guesses on P1-P5:

Button Alonso Massa Webber Hülkenberg
M2000-5 342 * Potential 278 AcuraF1 140 Dispenser89 271 KWSN-DSM 85
Brawn BGP 001 311 * Forecast 278 Costaz 135 kismet 261 shays 70
Grayson 293 * Current 278 DutchQuicksilver134 Crazy Canuck 260 D82 68
AcuraF1 290 Dispenser89 265 race addicted 130 mark f1 260 * Potential 63
Bleu 290 Costaz 242 Dispenser89 129 AcuraF1 255 * Forecast 63
kismet 290 AcuraF1 240 * Potential 122 M2000-5 253 * Current 63
arcsine 285 Crazy Canuck 220 * Forecast 122 Estwald 250 skylark68 62
August 282 Fisichella_2001 220 * Current 122 Makarias 248 scheivlak 56
Crazy Canuck 280 DutchQuicksilver214 kismet 120 August 246 Fastcake 55
skylark68 280 Makarias 211 mark f1 115 Fastcake 242 Fisichella_2001 52
Wlleiotl 280 Bleu 206 shays 115 shays 242 race addicted 51
D82 275 scheivlak 206 Bleu 113 skylark68 242 arcsine 50
Dispenser89 274 mark f1 200 Crazy Canuck 110 Anderis 240 Anderis 45
Costaz 272 Fastcake 187 Grayson 110 noikeee 240 DutchQuicksilver 45
Fastcake 272 kismet 186 Fisichella_2001 104 Apex 235 Estwald 45
noikeee 272 race addicted 180 Iscurrega 101 DutchQuicksilver232 Brawn BGP 001 42
Fisichella_2001 271 shays 180 Wlleiotl 100 race addicted 228 Apex 40
Anderis 268 Brawn BGP 001 178 KWSN-DSM 98 Costaz 225 Crazy Canuck 40
Makarias 267 Grayson 170 Makarias 92 Bleu 224 Grayson 40
scheivlak 266 Iscurrega 161 skylark68 88 Wlleiotl 220 kismet 40
Apex 260 Anderis 159 Fastcake 86 scheivlak 212 Makarias 40
Estwald 260 August 152 D82 82 Fisichella_2001 211 Wlleiotl 40
shays 247 Apex 150 Apex 80 arcsine 205 noikeee 38
DutchQuicksilver241 Wlleiotl 150 August 78 Brawn BGP 001 201 Bleu 37
mark f1 240 D82 145 Anderis 75 Grayson 200 mark f1 35
race addicted 226 arcsine 132 noikeee 75 KWSN-DSM 200 Iscurrega 34
Iscurrega 212 noikeee 131 scheivlak 71 D82 195 Dispenser89 30
KWSN-DSM 200 Estwald 121 Estwald 60 * Potential 179 Costaz 27
* Potential 188 KWSN-DSM 120 Brawn BGP 001 59 * Forecast 179 AcuraF1 25
* Forecast 188 skylark68 117 arcsine 54 * Current 179 M2000-5 8
* Current 188 M2000-5 104 M2000-5 26 Iscurrega 150 August 7

Alonso jumps past Dispenser89's good guess for the 1005 surprise.
Button and Webber were two reasons why Brazil kept giving so decent points...

Guesses on P6-P10:

Vettel Schumacher Vergne Kobayashi Räikkönen
August 359 Estwald 222 KWSN-DSM 85 * Potential 60 * Potential 207
M2000-5 357 Iscurrega 200 arcsine 37 * Forecast 60 * Forecast 207
kismet 346 skylark68 164 scheivlak 36 * Current 60 * Current 207
AcuraF1 345 M2000-5 160 Fisichella_2001 32 KWSN-DSM 50 August 185
D82 343 August 133 Estwald 30 shays 50 D82 159
shays 341 Brawn BGP 001 132 race addicted 30 race addicted 46 shays 155
Apex 340 Wlleiotl 130 shays 30 scheivlak 37 M2000-5 152
noikeee 335 Anderis 126 Apex 25 Apex 35 Costaz 146
Estwald 330 KWSN-DSM 125 Brawn BGP 001 25 Crazy Canuck 35 noikeee 136
mark f1 330 Bleu 122 mark f1 25 skylark68 35 Grayson 135
Fisichella_2001 320 arcsine 121 noikeee 25 Costaz 32 scheivlak 126
Wlleiotl 320 D82 115 DutchQuicksilver 23 DutchQuicksilver 31 Apex 125
Makarias 318 Crazy Canuck 110 Fastcake 22 kismet 31 KWSN-DSM 120
arcsine 311 kismet 110 Makarias 22 Anderis 30 Anderis 116
skylark68 310 Fastcake 109 Crazy Canuck 20 Estwald 30 DutchQuicksilver116
Dispenser89 307 Grayson 105 skylark68 20 Wlleiotl 30 Bleu 115
Anderis 306 race addicted 105 Wlleiotl 20 Fisichella_2001 29 Makarias 114
Bleu 301 Makarias 104 Iscurrega 17 Fastcake 27 Wlleiotl 110
Brawn BGP 001 301 scheivlak 103 * Potential 16 AcuraF1 26 arcsine 109
Crazy Canuck 300 DutchQuicksilver102 * Forecast 16 Grayson 25 mark f1 100
Iscurrega 293 mark f1 100 * Current 16 Dispenser89 24 race addicted 100
scheivlak 293 noikeee 98 Dispenser89 14 Brawn BGP 001 22 Iscurrega 98
Grayson 292 Fisichella_2001 91 Grayson 13 D82 22 Fastcake 87
DutchQuicksilver284 AcuraF1 90 D82 12 Bleu 21 Fisichella_2001 85
* Potential 281 Dispenser89 89 Costaz 11 Makarias 21 Crazy Canuck 80
* Forecast 281 shays 88 Anderis 8 mark f1 20 kismet 79
* Current 281 Costaz 83 Bleu 8 noikeee 18 Brawn BGP 001 76
Fastcake 279 Apex 80 kismet 3 arcsine 16 skylark68 76
Costaz 266 * Potential 49 August 2 M2000-5 13 Dispenser89 75
race addicted 255 * Forecast 49 AcuraF1 1 Iscurrega 8 AcuraF1 65
KWSN-DSM 250 * Current 49 M2000-5 0 August 2 Estwald 61

...and Schumacher and Vettel two other ones.

The PTPC forecast prior to the Brazilian GP

Name Forecast +/-
scheivlak 1690,3 3,0
Costaz 1688,7 7,0
DutchQuicksilver 1682,3 7,0
race addicted 1675,7 3,6
Dispenser89 1663,8 15,8
Fisichella_2001 1643,1 3,3
Grayson 1639,1 8,1
Anderis 1636,1 3,3
Fastcake 1629,1 -2,9
Crazy Canuck 1629,1 7,7
Makarias 1628,1 3,3
Bleu 1623,1 11,1
D82 1617,2 5,3
mark f1 1617,1 8,8
KWSN-DSM 1615,9 -2,1
Apex 1611,1 3,3
Wlleiotl 1591,1 3,3
noikeee 1581,1 3,3
shays 1577,9 9,0
AcuraF1 1576,1 11,1
Brawn BGP 001 1574,1 3,3
kismet 1564,9 11,1
skylark68 1544,3 2,0
arcsine 1533,1 3,3
Iscurrega 1526,2 10,9
August 1522,9 5,6
Estwald 1428,1 3,3
M2000-5 1349,9 4,6

Hindsight is 20/20, innit...

The best guesses on each driver

X # ! Y
Vett 281 279 Fastcake
Alon 278 265 Dispenser89
Räik 207 185 August
Hami 190 225 KWSN-DSM
Butt 188 200 KWSN-DSM
Webb 179 195 D82
Mass 122 120 kismet
Gros 96 98 noikeee
Rosb 93 93 Dispenser89
Pere 66 54 scheivlak
Hülk 63 62 skylark68
Koba 60 50 KWSN-DSM
Schu 49 80 Apex
diRe 46 46 Fisichella_2001
Mald 45 47 Anderis
Senn 31 27 D82
Verg 16 17 Iscurrega
Ricc 10 10 Iscurrega
Petr 0 0 13 players
Gloc 0 0 27 players
Kova 0 0 9 players
Pic 0 0 27 players
dAmb 0 0 28 players (all)
Kart 0 0 26 players
dlRo 0 0 26 players

Reality check on some of our predictions

Popularity Poll WCC prediction:

Team Pred Off
McLa 550 -172
RBR 541 - 81
Ferr 271 +129
Merc 265 -123
Lotu 180 +123
FoIn 88 + 21
Saub 54 + 72
STR 44 - 18
Will 23 + 53
Cate 4 - 4
HRT 0 +- 0
Maru 0 +- 0

McLaren's season a disappointment.

Teammate battles: Which driver is expected to outscore his teammate?

Owner Owned Outcome
<- = ->
Alon 28 0 0 Mass Correct
Vett 28 0 0 Webb Correct
Räik 27 0 1 Gros Correct
Rosb 25 0 3 Schu Correct
Kova 16 12 0 Petr Semi-wrong; Petrov ahead on finishing position, but points wise a draw.
diRe 16 2 10 Hülk Wrong
Hami 16 1 11 Butt Correct, and it was even close!
Koba 15 5 8 Pere Wrong
Ricc 15 4 9 Verg Wrong
Senn 13 7 8 Mald Wrong
Gloc 0 28 0 Pic Correct
dela 0 28 0 Kart Correct

Hierarchy below the frontrunning teams seems unpredictable and analysing backmarker teams based on points predictions is useless.

Have your loveliest offseason ever, only to be bettered by every offseason after it, and see you again in 2013!

[KWSN - DSM]

Congrats to Costaz for winning, and good job DutchQuicksilver for making such a mighty push in the last race. Any result can be explained and excused any which way we chose to, fact is that apart from Costaz all of us made it wrong.

Thanks Makarias for running the game. Once 2013 rolls around I will once again throw myself at this game with gusto.

[scheivlak]

That was some thrilling contest!

Once the season starts there's nothing you can do but watching the drama unfold.

The good thing about that is you can't make any opportunistic blunder that throws your chances away.
The bad thing is that utter feeling of helplessness

In hindsight I was just too sceptical about Felipe and he proved me wrong. Though we'll never know what had happened if Bruno Senna hadn't hit Seb...... and so on and so on.

Congrats to Costaz, thanks for running the show, Mak - and roll on 2013

Edited by scheivlak, 26 November 2012 - 18:17.

[Grayson]

Well done to Costaz and the other front runners!

It's amazing to think that Vettel could have such an amazing season but still fall so far short of our expectations of him. It's also remarkable to look back on just how much slower we all assumed the Williams and Saubers would be (and how happy I felt after the first few races, vindicated in making the right decision to put in such high guesses on the McLarens).

[Costaz]

* pop *
* opens champagne, starts spraying DutchQuicksilver, race addicted, scheivlak *
* also sprays Makarias, who tries - unsuccessfully - to leave the podium in time *
* drinks some champagne *

That was very exciting, the lead to this changed hands a few times during the race... I was feeling good about my chances when Vettel dropped at the back, only to dawn at me later that Hülkenberg winning the race did not suit my plans at all .

It's interesting to look back at the entries and the stats and see how much we underestimated or overestimated certain drivers and teams. I went for average guesses, and, amazingly, it worked. Let's see if I can repeat it next year.

It's a great game. Well done to all the players, and many thanks to Makarias for running it, always promptly and with very interesting stuff.

* goes back to drinking the champagne *

[MortenF1]

Very well done, DQuicksilver and scheivlak! Congratulations to both of you. Looking forward to next year!

[skylark68]

Thanks!

Will have to be a bit more focused for the new year for sure.

Again, thanks for doing these bets and games - appreciate it immensely.

Greg