So many difficulties,so few potential passengers compared to,say,France with 65 million residents and 80 million tourists per year v.Australia's South East with maybe 14 million people and 4 or 5 million tourists per year.If we can't fill the huge numbers of trains they fill in France,how can it be viable?
Of course France has a far more extensive system than is proposed for Australia. So passenger numbers aren't directly comparable for the overall system. Perhaps you could find a single route and find the ridership on that.
The discussion paper released by the government in 2011 shows about 6 million passenger movements from Sydney to Melbourne now. Add up all the other parts (include Sydney to Canberra, Sydney to Newcastle and Sydney to Brisbane, Brisbane to Melbourne) and the total must be double that. It also predicts a doubling of passenger movements by 2050.
The discussion paper worked on ridership of roughly half the air movements for the Melbourne to Sydney route, for example.
Joe,what details were used in that conclusion of 20 years ago? Is the proposed route known in any detail,or is it broad brush assumptions?
Routes have been discussed and proposed for HSR for 30 years.
Did the study aim to only find ways to say yes,or was there informed,critical appraisal ?
If I understand Joe right, his study dealt only with running the service - not construction. Part of the cost to that service is a fee for the use of the tracks (right of way).
Construction companies would never say it can't be done to budget...until they blow the budget,but by then all parties are committed,and money is "found".
That all depends on the contract arrangements.
I still feel what works in densely populated regions of the world does not necessarily work in Australia,particularly as our desired route is right along the most challenging topography in Australia. There aren't any mountains,gorges and river valleys,expensive real estate or National Parks at 20,000 feet!
Don't know what you consider densely populated.
So challenging they built a railroad along it 100 years ago.