If McLaren come out with a rocketship that suits Button he could challenge for the title. But I think that 2013 will be a transitional year for McLaren, as they adjust to not having the team built around Hamilton, so I think they'll be further off the pace than this season, and as Perez is, in my opinion, overrated, they will be left to fight over 3rd with Lotus.
I don't think Lotus' car will be as fast as it was in 2012 compared to Red Bull and McLaren, so I don't see Raikkonen making a sustained title bid, but in the constructors I think they'll be helped by Grosjean becoming more reliable and hopefully putting his first-lap horrorshows behind him.
Mercedes will just be disappointing and will be lucky to challenge for fourth, and Hamilton could face his first ever season in F1 where he doesn't win a race - I think they've got to build for 2014, and hope to take advantage of the new engine regulations to get to the front.
So that leaves Ferrari and Red Bull. It's hard to look beyond Red Bull having another Newey-designed speed machine, and if we're unlucky it will be 2011 all over again. Within Red Bull it's clear that Vettel is number one; even if there wasn't preference shown to him over Mark Webber, I think he'd have the beating of the aging Australian.
But Ferrari will be the closest challengers, especially if Massa continues with the form he had in the second half of 2012. Obviously though it will be Alonso who spearheads their tilt at the drivers' title. I don't think Ferrari will have the speed of Red Bull though, and that must be a concern for LdM and everyone else at Maranello, as they haven't had a top quality car, in my opinion, since 2008, and definitely nothing approaching the quality of the F2004. Maybe Domenicali will be out of a job this time next year?
Edited by BackmarkerUK, 21 December 2012 - 10:37.