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Mercedes-AMG 2013 W04


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#3051 amppatel

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 11:51

Are you referring to his own written preview or last night's preview on 5 Live radio?

His own written grid order was just a calculation he made of the best testing times from Barcelona with fuel correction (estimated), and he simply said that if they lined up at Melbourne based on these times, that this is how it would appear. He never said this was his actual prediction for the grid, any more than he said that he had scientifically quantified that Red Bull had exactly 10% more downforce than anyone else, as people keep idiotically taking this to mean.


No the radio one, he was asked who he thought would win on Sunday...

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#3052 robefc

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 11:53

It is an absurd prediction, and I think GA will look an awful lot sillier if he is wrong, than the other chap.


I don't think anyone should base predictions on how silly they would look if they are wrong, following the herd is a massive issue in lots of areas of society, fund managers hugging benchmarks and being perfectly content to lose shed loads of money for example as long as the majority of other funds managers are doing the same.

If his analysis leads him to thinking merc is currently quickest good on him for sharing it rather than preferring to stick with the safe majority.

#3053 PretentiousBread

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 11:57

No the radio one, he was asked who he thought would win on Sunday...


Fair enough, Merc is likely to be competitive, Rosberg is a very quick and capable driver, Hamilton is new to Mercedes. It's not just making up shit for the sake of it. Not my opinion mind, I think Vettel will win as usual and that Hamilton will still outpace Rosberg, but he's entitled to that view and I see it as a prediction with a lot of logic to it.

#3054 windtravels

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 13:17

I don't think anyone should base predictions on how silly they would look if they are wrong, following the herd is a massive issue in lots of areas of society, fund managers hugging benchmarks and being perfectly content to lose shed loads of money for example as long as the majority of other funds managers are doing the same.

If his analysis leads him to thinking merc is currently quickest good on him for sharing it rather than preferring to stick with the safe majority.


Here here.

Also the funniest thing from that radio piece was Jennie Gow being very shocked by GA prediction of Rosberg winning 'i'll just pick my jaw up off the floor' - then picking hamilton to win!

#3055 Hairy

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 13:27

Since when has predicting that the fastest guy in testing might be favourite for the first race of the season been 'absurd'? It's far, far from certain, but it's clearly not absurd. Honestly....


I don't think I have ever seen the fastest man in testing win the first race.

Edited to add, I would be utterly delighted to see NR or LH win, but basing testing times on who will win the first race of the season is a bit of a silly thing to do, no?

Edited by Hairy, 11 March 2013 - 13:28.


#3056 maverick69

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 13:29

I don't think I have ever seen the fastest man in testing win the first race.


2009?

#3057 Hairy

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 14:14

2009?


Button won

#3058 jjcale

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 14:18

I don't think anyone should base predictions on how silly they would look if they are wrong, following the herd is a massive issue in lots of areas of society, fund managers hugging benchmarks and being perfectly content to lose shed loads of money for example as long as the majority of other funds managers are doing the same.

If his analysis leads him to thinking merc is currently quickest good on him for sharing it rather than preferring to stick with the safe majority.


Couldnt have said it better myself :up:

#3059 Hairy

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 14:24

Couldnt have said it better myself :up:


He is saying NR will win the Aussie GP, based on testing results. I would love Mercedes to win, but cannot for the life of me believe it, or even imagine it, especially based on something like Testing, which is a notoriously poor indicator, apart from, possibly, 2009 where the fastest CAR in testing went on to win. I discount this, as it had a massive advantage over the other cars, so it would have been unthinkable for it not to have won.

I'd be happy with 5th, over the moon with a podium, and will dance naked on Thurlestone Sands if they win, any of them. If Nico wins, I will go into my local bar and ring a bell, announcing the drinks are on me. I'd be that happy.

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#3060 BernieEc

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 14:33

Has mercedes mentioned anything about possible updates to the car in Melbourne

#3061 Hairy

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 14:35

Has mercedes mentioned anything about possible updates to the car in Melbourne


I thought they'd be something for Malaysia, although I am sure there will be somethings.

#3062 mclarennut

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 14:36

He is saying NR will win the Aussie GP, based on testing results. I would love Mercedes to win, but cannot for the life of me believe it, or even imagine it, especially based on something like Testing, which is a notoriously poor indicator, apart from, possibly, 2009 where the fastest CAR in testing went on to win. I discount this, as it had a massive advantage over the other cars, so it would have been unthinkable for it not to have won.

I'd be happy with 5th, over the moon with a podium, and will dance naked on Thurlestone Sands if they win, any of them. If Nico wins, I will go into my local bar and ring a bell, announcing the drinks are on me. I'd be that happy.


Hope Im no where near Thurlestone Sands if they do win :)


#3063 BernieEc

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 14:36

I thought they'd be something for Malaysia, although I am sure there will be somethings.

:up:

#3064 Nahnever

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 15:15

He is saying NR will win the Aussie GP, based on testing results. I would love Mercedes to win, but cannot for the life of me believe it, or even imagine it, especially based on something like Testing, which is a notoriously poor indicator, apart from, possibly, 2009 where the fastest CAR in testing went on to win. I discount this, as it had a massive advantage over the other cars, so it would have been unthinkable for it not to have won.

I'd be happy with 5th, over the moon with a podium, and will dance naked on Thurlestone Sands if they win, any of them. If Nico wins, I will go into my local bar and ring a bell, announcing the drinks are on me. I'd be that happy.

:up:

#3065 Cool Beans

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 15:21

I don't think anyone should base predictions on how silly they would look if they are wrong, following the herd is a massive issue in lots of areas of society, fund managers hugging benchmarks and being perfectly content to lose shed loads of money for example as long as the majority of other funds managers are doing the same.

This is off topic but fund managers are not in it to gamble, they're in it to make money. Going against the available data and analysis as a lone wolf based on a gut feeling is called gambling. If you gamble you have a chance for great returns but also large chance for losses. They want a solid return on their investment; there really is no reason to risk staying on a ride when the forecast ahead is bumpy. If it turns out better than expected you can always jump aboard again after the storm.

/off topic

#3066 jjcale

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 15:51

This is off topic but fund managers are not in it to gamble, they're in it to make money [for themselves].


...fixed it for you

Going against the available data and analysis as a lone wolf based on a gut feeling is called gambling. If you gamble you have a chance for great returns but also large chance for losses. They want a solid return on their investment; there really is no reason to risk staying on a ride when the forecast ahead is bumpy. If it turns out better than expected you can always jump aboard again after the storm.

/off topic


That's actually the opposite of what Rob was saying.

but [/OT]

#3067 maverick69

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 15:56

Button won


Lol. He was quickest in his last day in he car! But you can be picky if you like.....

#3068 akshay380

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 16:28


Mercedes boss Toto Wolff says :
" Lewis not only has an immense driving talent, but a great technical understanding. He also has the right feel for the staff
and how to motivate them. After the first two days of testing, he knew all 50 team members at the track by name. The image of him that is sometimes drawn by the media does not correspond to reality "

http://www.motorspor...ld-image-wolff/

#3069 F1ultimate

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 16:37

^^
Touche :up:

#3070 dans79

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 18:13

I have never understood, why the press always seems to be out to get him.


#3071 Spoch

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 18:19

I have never understood, why the press always seems to be out to get him.

Maybe Ali G can answer that......but this is the W04 thread so lets not derail

#3072 SR388

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 18:37

What sort of result at Australia would Merc have to get for you to feel good about the start of the season?


For me at least one car in the top 6 of qualifying and the race.

A podium and I am very happy. A win and I am ready to start buying commemorative hats and plates for the occasion.

#3073 molpid

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 18:38

Graining

Posted Image

#3074 Hairy

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 18:40

Lol. He was quickest in his last day in he car! But you can be picky if you like.....


Not being picky; Barichello was the quickest over the test, just like Nico was. It's not being picky, is stating what is the truth, and correct. I don't see where you are coming from. Who was quickest over the test in 2009? Barrichello. Who was quickest over the test in 2013 - NR. Did Barrichello win? No.

That's about the long and the short of it.

#3075 Grundle

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 18:59

Graining

Posted Image

That's one seriously sexy car with a very soft suspension.

#3076 crespo

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 19:13

http://www.motorspor...ld-image-wolff/

Learned that from Alonso :p

GL to Lewis and Nico, car looks very good and could spring quite a surprise.

#3077 dans79

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 19:52

That's one seriously sexy car with a very soft suspension.


Yea, looks like the right front could almost lift off the tarmac!


#3078 BernieEc

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Posted 12 March 2013 - 09:05

A bit quiet in here, where's that smell like teen spirit

#3079 peroa

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Posted 12 March 2013 - 09:08

Here you go:

alexander wurz ‏@alex_wurz
I am revising my Australian preview: @LewisHamilton is my favourite for the Melbourne F1 GP victory!



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#3080 undersquare

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Posted 12 March 2013 - 09:15

Heh, Lewis has the Austrian axis sewn up.

The win would not amaze me at all. This is not last year's car plus-a-bit.

#3081 Timstr11

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Posted 12 March 2013 - 09:17

Is Wurz revising his view because of the expected lower ambient temperature?

#3082 peroa

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Posted 12 March 2013 - 09:24

Is Wurz revising his view because of the expected lower ambient temperature?

Probably...

#3083 jrg19

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Posted 12 March 2013 - 09:46

A lot of people tipping Mercedes, has everyone seen some inside information?

#3084 Alx09

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Posted 12 March 2013 - 09:56

Over-doing expectations so that Mercs turnaround won't feel positive if it's not at the top, even though being 4th fastest would be great.

Edited by Alx09, 12 March 2013 - 09:56.


#3085 Kaosoner

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Posted 12 March 2013 - 09:57

the weather forecast for melbourne
risks of shower on saturday... around 14H00...

http://www.weatherzo...ourne/melbourne

#3086 Timstr11

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Posted 12 March 2013 - 10:01

On Friday it's forecast to be 27 degrees.
I'd say plenty of heat to assess the car's warm weather performance.

#3087 ZooL

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Posted 12 March 2013 - 10:01

A lot of people tipping Mercedes, has everyone seen some inside information?

Probably building Hamilton up then knock him down...
Hamilton has inner confidence anyway - I don't think it works on him. He's ready for P15.

#3088 KiloWatt

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Posted 12 March 2013 - 10:55

A lot of people tipping Mercedes, has everyone seen some inside information?


I'm really hating it, even though I'd give a kidney for it to be true.

Because, if they're not successfull at the end of the year, everyone will say Mercedes hyped themselves again and didn't deliver. While they're actually trying to do the opposite. And then when you point this out in said hypothetical future conversation, it just gets completely drowned out by all the sreaming bandwagon jumping idiots.

But this is just hypothetical ofcourse and not at all based on real world experiences. ):

#3089 Kimiraikkonen

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Posted 12 March 2013 - 11:04

I´m a McLaren fan and only i´ve to say that i´m sure Mercedes AMG has since this year the best driver actually.

No doubts.

Good luck for 2013 guys!!! :wave:


#3090 Hairy

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Posted 12 March 2013 - 11:26

It's Melbourne, and 6 days away; it could be 46 degrees, could piss down at 13 degrees all through the race, and you'll not really know until the morning. Strangest place for weather I have ever been to.

#3091 Kaosoner

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Posted 12 March 2013 - 11:56

source from espnf1

Google translate:

Former French pilot became ambassador for Pirelli, Jean Alesi, believes that the new Italian gums should allow attackers which he belonged at the time, to express "especially in qualifying."

http://fr.espnf1.com...ory/102653.html

#3092 Seanspeed

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Posted 12 March 2013 - 12:04

Because, if they're not successfull at the end of the year, everyone will say Mercedes hyped themselves again and didn't deliver. While they're actually trying to do the opposite.

To be fair, they did go out and put in the fastest time during testing two days in a row at the end there. I'm not trying to criticize them for that, but if they didn't want people getting excited about them, that probably wasn't the best idea in the world, was it?  ;)

#3093 F1ultimate

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Posted 12 March 2013 - 12:07

There's a chase of rain this weekend. The car looked planted in wet Barcelona the other day.

Front row lockout on Saturday? :smoking:

#3094 bonjon1979a

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Posted 12 March 2013 - 12:08

To be fair, they did go out and put in the fastest time during testing two days in a row at the end there. I'm not trying to criticize them for that, but if they didn't want people getting excited about them, that probably wasn't the best idea in the world, was it? ;)


I doubt they were trying, I reckon they had 60 kgs on board and assumed all teams would be setting faster times then them. Not to get people on this boards hopes up too much but that's definitely what happened.

#3095 moorsey

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Posted 12 March 2013 - 12:22

There's a chase of rain this weekend. The car looked planted in wet Barcelona the other day.

Front row lockout on Saturday? :smoking:


There could be a few people collapsing with astonishment if that happens. :wave:

#3096 slmk

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Posted 12 March 2013 - 12:25

To be fair, they did go out and put in the fastest time during testing two days in a row at the end there. I'm not trying to criticize them for that, but if they didn't want people getting excited about them, that probably wasn't the best idea in the world, was it? ;)


I don't think exciting people is what they were trying to go for, considering they keep downplaying their chances. Media is doing the hyping for them

#3097 kedia990

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Posted 12 March 2013 - 12:25

There's a chase of rain this weekend. The car looked planted in wet Barcelona the other day.

Front row lockout on Saturday? :smoking:


Mechanical grip should help fosho. If its wet on Sunday, would be interested to check out the strategic calls too. McLaren have long been criticized for using the simulator-and-analysis approach to strategic calls, not reacting instinctively to on-track occurences. Lets see if Mercedes fare better.

#3098 Alx09

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Posted 12 March 2013 - 12:28

There's a chase of rain this weekend. The car looked planted in wet Barcelona the other day.

Front row lockout on Saturday? :smoking:


Now that would be a sight, wouldn't it? But tune down the hopes, it's way too positive and risky in here. I'd better prepare my mood-swing suit for the most extreme conditions.

#3099 Seanspeed

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Posted 12 March 2013 - 12:49

I don't think exciting people is what they were trying to go for

Didn't say it was.

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#3100 robefc

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Posted 12 March 2013 - 12:56

Now that would be a sight, wouldn't it? But tune down the hopes, it's way too positive and risky in here. I'd better prepare my mood-swing suit for the most extreme conditions.


I'm ready for anything, I desperately want the car to be great for Lewis and testing has raised my expectations in that regard but I'm still expecting to be pleased if he gets in to Q3 and ready for him not to be able to.