Jump to content


Photo
* * * - - 15 votes

Lewis @ Mercedes: the biggest mistake of his career?


  • This topic is locked This topic is locked
916 replies to this topic

Poll: Lewis Hamilton has made a terrible mistake (562 member(s) have cast votes)

You reckon?

  1. Nah man, he's gonna be great, relax (255 votes [45.62%])

    Percentage of vote: 45.62%

  2. He'll probably beat Rosberg, the rest is someone else's responsibility (144 votes [25.76%])

    Percentage of vote: 25.76%

  3. No biggie, he'll be back at Mclaren in 2016 (46 votes [8.23%])

    Percentage of vote: 8.23%

  4. OH SHI- (114 votes [20.39%])

    Percentage of vote: 20.39%

Vote

#151 Mc_Silver

Mc_Silver
  • Member

  • 2,161 posts
  • Joined: May 09

Posted 02 January 2013 - 18:04

What I love about Lewis is that he is not afraid of any challenge and he does not expect a special treatment unlike Alonso and Vettel. He could have chosen to stay in McLaren and continue winning and beating his word champion team mate. I have the same opinion about Kimi as well. Lewis may struggle in 2013 as it will be his first season. Real comparison should be made in 2014 IMO.

Advertisement

#152 tifosiMac

tifosiMac
  • Member

  • 6,670 posts
  • Joined: January 10

Posted 02 January 2013 - 18:13

The same goes for Button and Raikkonen (and others who have yet to have the opportunity). The point is that it is much more challenging to drive on the limit for a championship, and we see much more what a driver is made of under these circumstances. We will not be seeing that from Lewis unless the Mercedes is more competitive than of late.

I don't believe Lewis is going to lose his ability even if he has a couple of uncompetitive years in a Mercedes. Alonso was never criticised for having lost it when he was driving a slower Renault and I don't expect the same will happen to Lewis. If it boosts the ego's of certain fans and reinforces their personal view that their driver is greatest ever if they dream Hamilton's stock will diminish, then good for them. I think its an exciting time for Lewis and his fans and I'll enjoy watching his progress even if he's not winning the championship. One thing is for certain, if Vettel is storming off into the lead for the next season or so, at least our TV screens will be full of Hamilton fighting in an under performing car and we'll really see his skills on show.

#153 Seanspeed

Seanspeed
  • Member

  • 14,477 posts
  • Joined: October 08

Posted 02 January 2013 - 18:18

I'm not so pessimistic of Lewis' move. If he beats Rosberg with his speed, takes some top-3 qualifying slots, regular podiums and maybe a win, his value will go up. At McLaren it was slowly but steadily going down anyway.

I dont think it was. He had a fantastic 2012 season, driving-wise, and it didn't go unnoticed. Mclaren's stock went down a bit maybe, but Lewis was on-point almost all season long.

Personally, yes, I think its a brain-dead mistake and it will turn into a disaster. I could be wrong of course, Mercedes might surprise me, but I dont know why on earth anybody could think that team is a better bet than Mclaren. A lot of people said that the relationship with Mclaren was falling apart, but I never really saw that. It seemed to me more that fans and some pundits did a lot of speculating and the more it was repeated, the more it became true. Certainly, if Lewis wasn't happy at Mclaren, I dont see what Mercedes do that harbors any better an atmosphere, not to mention a less competitive car wont sit as well with Lewis, nor will the inevitable falling apart as the season progresses since they dont know how to develop car worth a damn.

I mean, Mclaren may have had some organizational problems, but they also built their most competitive car since 2008 or arguably even 2005. Its not like they're falling apart or anything. Mercedes were almost equally incompetent regarding their operations and their car was a miserable mess by the last part of the season.

Lewis may come out of this with his reputation intact, but I dont think he'll have many trophies to back it up with.

#154 garoidb

garoidb
  • Member

  • 3,684 posts
  • Joined: May 11

Posted 02 January 2013 - 18:49

I don't believe Lewis is going to lose his ability even if he has a couple of uncompetitive years in a Mercedes. Alonso was never criticised for having lost it when he was driving a slower Renault and I don't expect the same will happen to Lewis. If it boosts the ego's of certain fans and reinforces their personal view that their driver is greatest ever if they dream Hamilton's stock will diminish, then good for them. I think its an exciting time for Lewis and his fans and I'll enjoy watching his progress even if he's not winning the championship. One thing is for certain, if Vettel is storming off into the lead for the next season or so, at least our TV screens will be full of Hamilton fighting in an under performing car and we'll really see his skills on show.


Who said he would? I don't think you have read my posts properly.

#155 Rubens Hakkamacher

Rubens Hakkamacher
  • Member

  • 1,567 posts
  • Joined: March 04

Posted 02 January 2013 - 18:53

over the years the Renault powered cars have been able to challenge. I see no reason why they should not be able to produce an engine as good as Ferrari or Mercedes.


They have taken longer, and have had whopper mistakes along the way (V111). I could be wrong, they've got the prior turbo experience - but I just do not think of them as having Mercedes' pedigree these days.

It's naive to think that any team supplied with Mercedes engines will in some way be given inferior engines to the Mercedes team.


Why? In the past this has occurred; and if Mercedes turns up in a circumstance where *they can only make 2 iterations of the latest design in time for a race weekend*, they're not about to give that to McLaren instead of their works effort.

There is also the aspect that development of the packaging is going to be wholly up to Mercedes, and the customer team will have to work around that on their own terms. *That* has always been the case, and has caused problems in the past.


Are you sure about that? I can remember JB making comments about his girlfriend teaching him a bit of Japanese, but I don't think he is anywhere near fluent.


I know that I've seen video of him speaking in Japanese, and that I have a friend that is married to a Japanese girl for a shorter period of time than Jenson - and he's pretty fluent at this point. Certainly more so than Lewis, and if you've got on site Honda engineers that are just nihon-jin it would be to Jenson's advantage to be able to converse with them about how *he* likes the engine...


Just fun speculation. That's all we can do not being on the inside.

Edited by Rubens Hakkamacher, 02 January 2013 - 19:24.


#156 tifosiMac

tifosiMac
  • Member

  • 6,670 posts
  • Joined: January 10

Posted 02 January 2013 - 18:58

Who said he would? I don't think you have read my posts properly.

I got the impression you were suggesting Hamilton would not be able to be held in the same regard as Vettel and Alonso over the next couple of years because he may find himself not being able to fight for a championship. My point is he is already a proved force as far as I am concerned and our discussion has gone along these lines. If that is not the impression you meant to give, then please clarify.

#157 garoidb

garoidb
  • Member

  • 3,684 posts
  • Joined: May 11

Posted 02 January 2013 - 19:13

I got the impression you were suggesting Hamilton would not be able to be held in the same regard as Vettel and Alonso over the next couple of years because he may find himself not being able to fight for a championship. My point is he is already a proved force as far as I am concerned and our discussion has gone along these lines. If that is not the impression you meant to give, then please clarify.


Correct, and my point has nothing to do with losing skills as you imply below.

I don't believe Lewis is going to lose his ability even if he has a couple of uncompetitive years in a Mercedes. Alonso was never criticised for having lost it when he was driving a slower Renault and I don't expect the same will happen to Lewis.


Alonso was not criticised for having "lost it", but his current high standing is based largely on what he has been doing at Ferrari for the last three years. Without that, his star would be falling fast.

For what it is worth, I think that drivers need to continuously prove and improve all aspects of their ability and I have no doubt that Vettel and Alonso (the current benchmarks who Hamilton will want to eclipse by the end of his career) are doing that. I believe Lewis will be doing that too, and not considering himself to be a proved force. The best route to becoming recognised as a so called complete driver is the cauldron of a high stakes championship challenge.

#158 Rubens Hakkamacher

Rubens Hakkamacher
  • Member

  • 1,567 posts
  • Joined: March 04

Posted 02 January 2013 - 19:13

His first two years were monsters and that is what built the initial "Lewis mania".


"Lewis Mania"? So it wasn't Lewis' skill that made him scare Alonso, it was some sort of... mania... that made it just appear that way?


You can say Vettel has the Red Bull but you can also say that other driver's haven't gotten to drive for a team like McLaren their whole career either.


There is one difference in that with Lewis Hamilton we have an almost perfect baseline. In his rookie year, on the same team with the same car as a reigning world champion he not only manage to equal him but out race him. This is not the case with Vettel. On these grounds alone, it's silly to dismiss Hamilton in anyway at all.

#159 Clatter

Clatter
  • Member

  • 27,376 posts
  • Joined: February 00

Posted 02 January 2013 - 19:15

QUOTE (Clatter @ Jan 1 2013, 14:32) *
over the years the Renault powered cars have been able to challenge. I see no reason why they should not be able to produce an engine as good as Ferrari or Mercedes.

They have taken longer, and have had whopper mistakes along the way (V111). I could be wrong, they've got the prior turbo experience - but I just do not think of them as having Mercedes' pedigree these days.



Why? In the past this has occurred; and if Mercedes turns up in a circumstance where *they can only make 2 iterations of the latest design in time for a race weekend*, they're not about to give that to McLaren instead of their works effort.

There is also the aspect that development of the packaging is going to be wholly up to Mercedes, and the customer team will have to work around that on their own terms. *That* has always been the case, and has caused problems in the past.


QUOTE
Are you sure about that? I can remember JB making comments about his girlfriend teaching him a bit of Japanese, but I don't think he is anywhere near fluent.

I know that I've seen video of him speaking in Japanese, and that I have a friend that is married to a Japanese girl for a shorter period of time than Jenson - and he's pretty fluent at this point. Certainly more so than Lewis, and if you've got on site Honda engineers that are just nihon-jin it would be to Jenson's advantage to be able to converse with them about how *he* likes the engine...


Just fun speculation. That's all we can do not being on the inside.


Mercedes were not exactly an overnight success.

The engines still need to be homologated. They will not be putting more than one version forward.

Edited by Clatter, 02 January 2013 - 19:18.


Advertisement

#160 Szoelloe

Szoelloe
  • Member

  • 5,689 posts
  • Joined: December 06

Posted 02 January 2013 - 20:59

Don't see where this is coming from, really. Designing, producing, and then selling engines is a business. If any of you seriously think that Mercedes would sell to its customers an inferior engine to what they themselves use to have an edge on them, again, their own customers, then think again. It will never happen, and it has NOT happened before, not with any of the engine supliers, whatever anyone says. Not in this era. What an insane idea, really.

#161 Risil

Risil
  • Member

  • 13,926 posts
  • Joined: February 07

Posted 02 January 2013 - 21:07

Don't see where this is coming from, really. Designing, producing, and then selling engines is a business. If any of you seriously think that Mercedes would sell to its customers an inferior engine to what they themselves use to have an edge on them, again, their own customers, then think again. It will never happen, and it has NOT happened before, not with any of the engine supliers, whatever anyone says. Not in this era. What an insane idea, really.


So those Toro Rossos just got faster by themselves midway through 2008, then?

#162 Szoelloe

Szoelloe
  • Member

  • 5,689 posts
  • Joined: December 06

Posted 02 January 2013 - 21:08

So those Toro Rossos just got faster by themselves midway through 2008, then?


wot??


#163 Risil

Risil
  • Member

  • 13,926 posts
  • Joined: February 07

Posted 02 January 2013 - 21:15

wot??


You know, when Ferrari started giving Vettel and Bourdais the better engines so they could get between Massa and Hamilton.

That was probably the last year any significant engine development took place, however. Back in 2005 and 2006 there'd have been different spec engines on the grid simply because they were bringing new parts to the races all the time. And in something like MotoGP, where in-season development and works/customer teams are the established way of doing things, customers very much do not get the same equipment.

But where there's no development there's not really any need for the better-resourced team to restrict its customers, unless perhaps Ferrari were somehow fighting Sauber for the championship.

Edited by Risil, 02 January 2013 - 21:21.


#164 Szoelloe

Szoelloe
  • Member

  • 5,689 posts
  • Joined: December 06

Posted 02 January 2013 - 21:27

You know, when Ferrari started giving Vettel and Bourdais the better engines so they could get between Massa and Hamilton.

That was probably the last year any significant engine development took place, however. Back in 2005 and 2006 there'd have been different spec engines on the grid simply because they were bringing new parts to the races all the time.


The engine spec freeze was introduced partly to give the custoemr engine business a the nudge it needed to bloom. Now, the theory is that the V6 Turbo format will be made universal. No engine supplier will ruin his own business by supplying inferior lumps to anybody. This is not a charity activity. Renault - I'd say everybody - is trying to increase its customers to decrease the price. It is a huge investment to design, test, and then 'mass'-produce new lumps for sale. Its absurd to think any of the engine suppliers would poo in their own nest like that.


#165 Risil

Risil
  • Member

  • 13,926 posts
  • Joined: February 07

Posted 02 January 2013 - 21:36

I think that's the plan too, but if midway through 2014 Mercedes are in a championship battle with Mclaren, I doubt the engine division would be as cooperative with technical support and specific developments as they might otherwise be. That's racing, though.

The case with Renault could be different, because they don't have even a nominal works team.

#166 olliek88

olliek88
  • Member

  • 4,048 posts
  • Joined: January 10

Posted 02 January 2013 - 21:40

I can't find it written down anywhere but i'm sure i've seen/read somewhere that in the Concorde agreement (I think) all engines supplied by a manufacturer must be of the same specification.

I feel sure i've heard that somewhere, just can't find it!


#167 Risil

Risil
  • Member

  • 13,926 posts
  • Joined: February 07

Posted 02 January 2013 - 21:44

I can't find it written down anywhere but i'm sure i've seen/read somewhere that in the Concorde agreement (I think) all engines supplied by a manufacturer must be of the same specification.


What if the factory team develops its engine to work best with its own ERS/packaging/exhaust desgins? And surely there's nothing in the rules to say that Mercedes can't send its best engine technicians to work with its own team engineers, or that they have to give Mclaren and Force India access to exactly the same amount of testing data.

Course if Mercedes build another car that's good for fourth in the constructors' championship tops, they'd be very stupid not to give Mclaren all the support they could.

Edited by Risil, 02 January 2013 - 21:47.


#168 Szoelloe

Szoelloe
  • Member

  • 5,689 posts
  • Joined: December 06

Posted 02 January 2013 - 22:00

I think that's the plan too, but if midway through 2014 Mercedes are in a championship battle with Mclaren, I doubt the engine division would be as cooperative with technical support and specific developments as they might otherwise be. That's racing, though.

The case with Renault could be different, because they don't have even a nominal works team.



well, thats where you are totally wrong. Plus, there is no engine development mid-season, even if the format is new, and in its first season..


What if the factory team develops its engine to work best with its own ERS/packaging/exhaust desgins? And surely there's nothing in the rules to say that Mercedes can't send its best engine technicians to work with its own team engineers, or that they have to give Mclaren and Force India access to exactly the same amount of testing data.

Course if Mercedes build another car that's good for fourth in the constructors' championship tops, they'd be very stupid not to give Mclaren all the support they could.


You nearly answered yourself. That is where the only advantage of having the engine design/testing/production lies, and mostly for the first 'virgin' season only, and for maximum one season, possibly less. The car design team - engine design team pro-activity, real time info on specs, behavior, mapping possibilities, matching all these to maximize the design's potential.

edit: just to be clear, I mean matching the design to extract optimum performance from the lumps, not the other way around.

Edited by Szoelloe, 02 January 2013 - 22:09.


#169 Clatter

Clatter
  • Member

  • 27,376 posts
  • Joined: February 00

Posted 03 January 2013 - 15:13

Don't see where this is coming from, really. Designing, producing, and then selling engines is a business. If any of you seriously think that Mercedes would sell to its customers an inferior engine to what they themselves use to have an edge on them, again, their own customers, then think again. It will never happen, and it has NOT happened before, not with any of the engine supliers, whatever anyone says. Not in this era. What an insane idea, really.


That's not quite correct. It certainly hasn't happened since the homologated engine came in, but Ferrari certainly used to provide older spec engines to their customers.

#170 CHIUNDA

CHIUNDA
  • Member

  • 817 posts
  • Joined: July 10

Posted 03 January 2013 - 18:51

Hamilton's biggest mistake of his career already happened 5 years ago when he signed for McLaren. At that time, the future looked really bright. Ron Dennis had promised a championship and delivered. He was the rookie that had just outscored a two time WDC. He was the No.1 driver in the 2nd most popular team in F1. The team had just had two fabulous years with a fast reliable car. At the time, Red Bull was just a drinks company!

Who would have predicted that two years later, Ron Dennis would be gone, Whitmarsh would hire Jenson Button and proceed to install him as the preferred driver with the first aim being for him to beat Lewis and put him in his place. Who would have thought that Lewis would be trading toxic political sound bites with his boss in the press only a couple of years after winning the only WDC for the team in a decade?

Yet all these happened in only five years and Hamilton's career by 2012 was in such tatters that he probably got fired (yeah, i have read and heard the PR drivel from both sides, thank you very much) and in a bid to save his career, had to hobble over to a mid-field team hoping that things will (if Uncle Bernie wishes to smile upon the biggest manufacturer in the sport) look up in 3 years.

Mercedes is not the biggest mistake of Hamilton's career - Mercedes is the only hope he has to salvage it.

#171 Risil

Risil
  • Member

  • 13,926 posts
  • Joined: February 07

Posted 03 January 2013 - 18:53

Poor Lewis!

#172 Rubens Hakkamacher

Rubens Hakkamacher
  • Member

  • 1,567 posts
  • Joined: March 04

Posted 03 January 2013 - 19:37

The engines still need to be homologated. They will not be putting more than one version forward.


Homologated does not mean frozen.


#173 garoidb

garoidb
  • Member

  • 3,684 posts
  • Joined: May 11

Posted 03 January 2013 - 19:38

Hamilton's biggest mistake of his career already happened 5 years ago when he signed for McLaren. At that time, the future looked really bright. Ron Dennis had promised a championship and delivered. He was the rookie that had just outscored a two time WDC. He was the No.1 driver in the 2nd most popular team in F1. The team had just had two fabulous years with a fast reliable car. At the time, Red Bull was just a drinks company!


To look at this a bit more seriously for a moment, this new Mercedes deal would be Lewis's third F1 contract. I don't think anyone could call his first contract, under which he made his F1 debut and significantly increased his market value, a mistake. Then he signed a very lucrative five year deal which guaranteed financial security for himself and presumably Anthony (and rightly so). But how long was his original, low money, deal that was in operation in 2007? I think it extended a further year or two but was superceded by the big money deal. Maybe being tied to Mc:aren for so long could be viewed as a mistake when Ferrari or Red Bull might have been interested.

Or perhaps McLaren would have been less inclined to sign Jenson if they knew Lewis could have left as a result? Or the LH-McL relationship would have been better if they hadn't both felt tied in for such a long, expensive contract.

Could he have negotiated a shorter high money deal in 2007/8, and would he have been better off?


#174 Rubens Hakkamacher

Rubens Hakkamacher
  • Member

  • 1,567 posts
  • Joined: March 04

Posted 03 January 2013 - 19:43

If any of you seriously think that Mercedes would sell to its customers an inferior engine to what they themselves use to have an edge on them, again,



It has nothing to do with selling them inferior engines, it has to do with what they can manufacture and how fast. Again, if they come up with a revision in a time frame that does not allow more than 2 engines to be built before a race weekend, they're NOT going to give the new engine to McLaren if they think it's going to be reliable and better (otherwise, they wouldn't bother) and they're NOT going to avoid using it "because we don't want the customer using an inferior engine".

Once things are frozen it will be different. They will not be frozen at Australia in 2014. There will be many surprises and disappointments that year, it will be an evolving process and an expensive one - Mercedes isn't going to change their factory so that they can simultaneously make 4 copies of every engine revision just so McLaren can have EXACTLY the same revision at EXACTLY the same time. There will be overlap; we won't know how it works. There WILL be Ferrari, Renault and Mercedes engine failing, and being stronger than others, and it won't necessarily be spread evenly across the teams.

As I've said earlier/elsewhere - come race day, if you've got McLaren and Mercedes neck and neck in the running for the constructor's, to think Mercedes isn't going to time to preserve the upper hand is *naive* - this is F1.


Edited by Rubens Hakkamacher, 03 January 2013 - 19:45.


#175 tifosiMac

tifosiMac
  • Member

  • 6,670 posts
  • Joined: January 10

Posted 03 January 2013 - 19:46

Or perhaps McLaren would have been less inclined to sign Jenson if they knew Lewis could have left as a result? Or the LH-McL relationship would have been better if they hadn't both felt tied in for such a long, expensive contract.

One thing is for certain and that is Jenson is now under massive pressure at McLaren with Lewis leaving. On the surface it might seem his stronger team mate has now left and he is team leader against an inexperienced driver this year, but now he is team leader and expected to deliver clear results IMO. I think out of the two its Lewis who has the least amount of pressure on his shoulders this season with the expectation coming in 2014, but McLaren have a good car heading into this season (in theory) and Jenson shouldn't have too much of an in-team challenge on his hands. Of course Sergio could surprise but I would say Jenson has gained pressure with Lewis leaving.

#176 Rubens Hakkamacher

Rubens Hakkamacher
  • Member

  • 1,567 posts
  • Joined: March 04

Posted 03 January 2013 - 19:49

I can't find it written down anywhere but i'm sure i've seen/read somewhere that in the Concorde agreement (I think) all engines supplied by a manufacturer must be of the same specification.


Same spec and frozen are not the same concept. It's not like in 2014 all the manufacturers are going to show up with the same identical engine designs that they'll have at the end of the season.
They will be tweaking things all the time. What happens if Renault shows up and their engines don't last the first race? "Too bad"? They're screwed for the season? No.

#177 Risil

Risil
  • Member

  • 13,926 posts
  • Joined: February 07

Posted 03 January 2013 - 19:54

They will be tweaking things all the time. What happens if Renault shows up and their engines don't last the first race? "Too bad"? They're screwed for the season? No.


Are they keeping the same engine life rules that were adapted to the bulletproof 2400cc V8s? In 2012 Indycar tried to do something similar in their new engine formula's first year, and it got pretty crazy.

#178 garoidb

garoidb
  • Member

  • 3,684 posts
  • Joined: May 11

Posted 03 January 2013 - 19:56

One thing is for certain and that is Jenson is now under massive pressure at McLaren with Lewis leaving. On the surface it might seem his stronger team mate has now left and he is team leader against an inexperienced driver this year, but now he is team leader and expected to deliver clear results IMO.


I agree, not so much about the results as the predicament. McLaren have to be feeling that their driving line up could be strengthened for 2014 or 2015. They will be looking for the next Lewis (or the quite possibly the previous one if he becomes available in a year or two), and it could just as easily be Jenson as Sergio who has to make way. It could even be a simple matter of which is out of contract at the time.

#179 CHIUNDA

CHIUNDA
  • Member

  • 817 posts
  • Joined: July 10

Posted 03 January 2013 - 20:00

Or perhaps McLaren would have been less inclined to sign Jenson if they knew Lewis could have left as a result? Or the LH-McL relationship would have been better if they hadn't both felt tied in for such a long, expensive contract.

Could he have negotiated a shorter high money deal in 2007/8, and would he have been better off?


A three year contract terminating in 2010 would definitely have changed the dynamics in the team. Of course Lewis would have ended up with GBP24 Million (some guesswork here) less in the bank but McLaren would have thought longer and harder before endorsing the Jenson project. Lewis would have been more agile in reacting to team performance and would have had more options negotiating with other teams before they locked themselves into their own long term deals with their lead drivers. Whitmarsh would have been more cautious in his cristicisms of his fastest driver and most likely Lewis would still be happily driving for McLaren in 2013.

Though "I will drive for only McLaren in my life" sounded good at the time, it was probably the wrong mentality for Lewis to have. It was not a pragmatic strategy - there was too much trust for McLaren and Whitmarsh. That 5 year deal focused on financial security for Lewis and took team support for granted - a fatal mistake in hindsight.

I am thinking a lot of this informed the Mercedes deal - shorter contract, built in financial security but also a focus on results. Unfortunately one cannot be too sure about the results bit - yes Mercedes has restructured with lots of big names that know how to beat McLaren and most importantly win Championships but how long will it take before this brew of talent starts geling and delivering? Is there enough time before the Mercedes Board decides to pull the rug from under the team? Will the Lauda - Brawn structure work politically?

Edited by CHIUNDA, 03 January 2013 - 20:12.


Advertisement

#180 Szoelloe

Szoelloe
  • Member

  • 5,689 posts
  • Joined: December 06

Posted 03 January 2013 - 20:09

It has nothing to do with selling them inferior engines, it has to do with what they can manufacture and how fast. Again, if they come up with a revision in a time frame that does not allow more than 2 engines to be built before a race weekend, they're NOT going to give the new engine to McLaren if they think it's going to be reliable and better (otherwise, they wouldn't bother) and they're NOT going to avoid using it "because we don't want the customer using an inferior engine".

Once things are frozen it will be different. They will not be frozen at Australia in 2014. There will be many surprises and disappointments that year, it will be an evolving process and an expensive one - Mercedes isn't going to change their factory so that they can simultaneously make 4 copies of every engine revision just so McLaren can have EXACTLY the same revision at EXACTLY the same time. There will be overlap; we won't know how it works. There WILL be Ferrari, Renault and Mercedes engine failing, and being stronger than others, and it won't necessarily be spread evenly across the teams.

As I've said earlier/elsewhere - come race day, if you've got McLaren and Mercedes neck and neck in the running for the constructor's, to think Mercedes isn't going to time to preserve the upper hand is *naive* - this is F1.



sorry, but you are deluded too. The scenario you have presented is them selling inferior engines. They will not come up with a revision before the first race, or any race at all. This is not a game. :lol:

#181 garoidb

garoidb
  • Member

  • 3,684 posts
  • Joined: May 11

Posted 03 January 2013 - 20:20

A three year contract terminating in 2010 would definitely have changed the dynamics in the team. Of course Lewis would have ended up with GBP24 Million (some guesswork here) less in the bank but McLaren would have thought longer and harder before endorsing the Jenson project. Lewis would have been more agile in reacting to team performance and would have had more options negotiating with other teams before they locked themselves into their own long term deals with their lead drivers. Whitmarsh would have been more cautious in his cristicisms of his fastest driver and most likely Lewis would still be happily driving for McLaren in 2013.

Though "I will drive for only McLaren in my life" sounded good at the time, it was probably the wrong mentality for Lewis to have. It was not a pragmatic strategy - there was too much trust for McLaren and Whitmarsh. That 5 year deal focused on financial security for Lewis and took team support for granted - a fatal mistake in hindsight.


Who could have foreseen that two years into the contract, another British World Champion (reigning) would become available and join the team? The fact that Lewis was still locked in for three years when this happened, right at the time he had pushed Anthony away and had nobody savvy looking out for him, was incredibly unfortunate timing. Having said that, he did sign the long term deal with all the risks that implied. At least McLaren remained capable of multiple GP wins per season. It could have been worse.

I agree that a contract terminating in 2010 could have been a game changer, even without Lewis having to leave McLaren.

#182 Clatter

Clatter
  • Member

  • 27,376 posts
  • Joined: February 00

Posted 03 January 2013 - 20:27

Same spec and frozen are not the same concept. It's not like in 2014 all the manufacturers are going to show up with the same identical engine designs that they'll have at the end of the season.
They will be tweaking things all the time. What happens if Renault shows up and their engines don't last the first race? "Too bad"? They're screwed for the season? No.


The engines will still need to last multiple races. Reliability fixes will be allowed, but there could be circumstances where these cannot be applied to an already used engine and therefore a team would either have to sacrifice an engine or keep their fingers crossed. This is not the same as performance changes that a manufacturer is keeping for themselves. In the age of the homologated engine all teams a manufacturer supplies will get the same spec.

#183 Buttoneer

Buttoneer
  • RC Forum Admin

  • 16,713 posts
  • Joined: May 04

Posted 03 January 2013 - 20:38

This engine discussion might be better off continued in its own thread if there isn't already one in existence.

#184 PretentiousBread

PretentiousBread
  • Member

  • 2,905 posts
  • Joined: February 10

Posted 03 January 2013 - 22:36

well, thats where you are totally wrong. Plus, there is no engine development mid-season, even if the format is new, and in its first season..


I thought the engine development freeze had been lifted?


#185 R Soul

R Soul
  • Member

  • 601 posts
  • Joined: August 06

Posted 04 January 2013 - 01:49

At first I thought it was a mistake for Hamilton to go to Mercedes, but now I think differently. Even if the car is awful and/or the team make loads of mistakes, Hamilton will still be young enough to bounce back, and he will gain a sense of independence.

#186 Jon83

Jon83
  • Member

  • 1,799 posts
  • Joined: November 11

Posted 04 January 2013 - 14:16

Absolutely ridiculous question to ask at this point.

How can anyone know either way?

#187 sheepgobba

sheepgobba
  • Member

  • 1,096 posts
  • Joined: January 11

Posted 04 January 2013 - 14:57

Maybe it is or maybe it isn't.

However, what i find odd is that people are suggesting Hamilton will return to McLaren after leaving due to his relationship with the team. The way I see is like your Ex- dumping you and then wanting you back after you've moved on. I don't think Lewis would return to McLaren if his decision was based on the relationship between the team, simply put going back wouldn't be the same anymore.

He'll move to Ferrari than go back to Mclaren. Mercedes will just another team that failed to fulfil its promises.

Edited by sheepgobba, 04 January 2013 - 14:58.


#188 Risil

Risil
  • Member

  • 13,926 posts
  • Joined: February 07

Posted 04 January 2013 - 15:04

Absolutely ridiculous question to ask at this point.

How can anyone know either way?


How could Hamilton know?

#189 Kelateboy

Kelateboy
  • Member

  • 5,792 posts
  • Joined: October 07

Posted 04 January 2013 - 15:12

You know, when Ferrari started giving Vettel and Bourdais the better engines so they could get between Massa and Hamilton.

How did Ferrari manage to do this with the engine homologation in 2008?

#190 Risil

Risil
  • Member

  • 13,926 posts
  • Joined: February 07

Posted 04 January 2013 - 15:21

How did Ferrari manage to do this with the engine homologation in 2008?


How should I know? Might as well ask how Toro Rosso got that fast car when customer chassis were banned.

#191 Kvothe

Kvothe
  • Member

  • 6,849 posts
  • Joined: November 10

Posted 04 January 2013 - 22:20

Surely the question of whether it's the biggest mistake of his career is only one that can be answered retrospectively, when all mistakes can be accounted for, weighed and measured to see how they compare.

Ironically if Mercedes sort their s**t out, leaving Mercedes to go back to McLaren after a couple of bad years could end up being the biggest mistake ever. Highly unlikely of course, but that's the future for you.

#192 Rubens Hakkamacher

Rubens Hakkamacher
  • Member

  • 1,567 posts
  • Joined: March 04

Posted 09 January 2013 - 16:37

Are they keeping the same engine life rules that were adapted to the bulletproof 2400cc V8s? In 2012 Indycar tried to do something similar in their new engine formula's first year, and it got pretty crazy.


They didn't just spontaneously pop up and say "now the engines are frozen", they developed them up to the deadline. Sure they're not going to tell everyone at Australia "ok, now the engines are frozen, tough luck".



#193 Rubens Hakkamacher

Rubens Hakkamacher
  • Member

  • 1,567 posts
  • Joined: March 04

Posted 09 January 2013 - 16:46

I thought the engine development freeze had been lifted?


That was my understanding? A whole season ran on frozen, racing untested engines? They may as well just pick a spec engine if that's the case. Again, I think Mercede's engine department out of the box will probably be more reliable than Ferrari's. And in a transitional year, I believe Ross Brawn does have the upper hand over Whitmarsh - particularly if he's going to be in communication with Mercedes obviously more than Whitmarsh.

Also consider the KERS integration; McLaren will not have any input as to the packaging, or the way it's managed relative to the engine's curve. A whole lot of mechanical variables + Ross Brawn = "You just don't know".

#194 Szoelloe

Szoelloe
  • Member

  • 5,689 posts
  • Joined: December 06

Posted 09 January 2013 - 17:16

I assume any development in-season would be permitted only if it is justified by reliability issues, and policed by the FIA. Morover, if anybody thinks Mercedes will introduce any upgrades for the team, but not for its customers, you are mistaken.

#195 BoschKurve

BoschKurve
  • Member

  • 1,153 posts
  • Joined: September 12

Posted 09 January 2013 - 17:21

I haven't read through this thread. Keeping with the topic, unless someone has a crystal ball, we won't know for another three years maximum, if this was the biggest mistake of his career. Even if it turns out to be a mistake, there is always the chance he could make an even bigger mistake down the road.

#196 Winter98

Winter98
  • Member

  • 638 posts
  • Joined: October 12

Posted 09 January 2013 - 17:26

Indeed, time will tell. Mercedes have attracted some key staff over the past 12 months and hopefully the foundations are in place.


Agreed.

I'm not a big Hamilton supporter, but I love watching him race, and I think F1 will be poorer for it if he's not in the mix at the top.

What does annoy me is that Hamilton was criticised for always driving in a top team, yet now he has taken a gamble he's being laughed at. Not good form.


Agreed.

I think Hamilton made a good decision, and will learn a lot over the next three years, certainly more than if he had stayed at McLaren (at least in IMO). And considering how young he is, I think this is a big positive.

#197 Szoelloe

Szoelloe
  • Member

  • 5,689 posts
  • Joined: December 06

Posted 09 January 2013 - 17:39

I haven't read through this thread. Keeping with the topic, unless someone has a crystal ball, we won't know for another three years maximum, if this was the biggest mistake of his career. Even if it turns out to be a mistake, there is always the chance he could make an even bigger mistake down the road.


I don't think it is a mistake. It was his best option by far, if he really wanted to go for the MS route, and not for the opportunistic Senna route. If he really wants to improve himself this is the way to go. It is a risk, and that is what makes it respectful. Merc should be pretty solid, for all the obvious reasons that had been touched upon, even taking into account the pissoff seasons they produced so far. If it was a mistake it will be very obvious by mid-season this year, I don't think it will take three seasons to decide that.


#198 Tauhid

Tauhid
  • Member

  • 231 posts
  • Joined: October 10

Posted 09 January 2013 - 17:56

It was his only offer at the time of signing. If he had signed for Red Bull, we would be discussing how he made the best decision of his career. I am pumped up to see Lewis take such a challenge in a mediocre team. I think he'll deliver just like he has done over all these years. Without a doubt, he is the fastest driver on the grid but not yet the best. He can become the best with some disappointments and some miraculous wins.

When you are at McLaren, you get the fastest car every 2/3 years and you must deliver. He did but the pressure and his teams blunders have let him down. Now, everyone will be playing down their expectations of him challenging for the podium but I expect to see some podium finishes in his best tracks this year. Maybe one win this year as well but either way, I salute him for not taking the easy way out. Not many drivers would have done the same.

#199 Risil

Risil
  • Member

  • 13,926 posts
  • Joined: February 07

Posted 09 January 2013 - 18:01

They didn't just spontaneously pop up and say "now the engines are frozen", they developed them up to the deadline. Sure they're not going to tell everyone at Australia "ok, now the engines are frozen, tough luck".


I wasn't referring to a development freeze there, I was talking about rules like "no engine changes for three races" or "eight engines a season" or something. The engine rules were adapted to very reliable engines, but it's possible that Mercedes, Renault and Ferrari powerplants will blow up too much for them to meet those targets.

And there's also the possibility that every team running, say, Mercedes engines will take a grid penalty in order to break the seals and get access to the latest parts.

Edited by Risil, 09 January 2013 - 18:03.


Advertisement

#200 garoidb

garoidb
  • Member

  • 3,684 posts
  • Joined: May 11

Posted 09 January 2013 - 18:32

It was his only offer at the time of signing. If he had signed for Red Bull, we would be discussing how he made the best decision of his career. I am pumped up to see Lewis take such a challenge in a mediocre team. I think he'll deliver just like he has done over all these years. Without a doubt, he is the fastest driver on the grid but not yet the best. He can become the best with some disappointments and some miraculous wins.


Apart from McLaren. The soundness of the decision will have to be considered in view of the alternative available, which was to stay at McLaren. I think he would have gone to Red Bull if an offer was on the table.

When you are at McLaren, you get the fastest car every 2/3 years and you must deliver. He did but the pressure and his teams blunders have let him down. Now, everyone will be playing down their expectations of him challenging for the podium but I expect to see some podium finishes in his best tracks this year. Maybe one win this year as well but either way, I salute him for not taking the easy way out. Not many drivers would have done the same.


I think there will be plenty of pressure to get the best possible results at Mercedes. Also, I am not convinced by this idea of making a virtue of transferring to a slower, less accomplished team. There is a reason most drivers would not do it.