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What are Lewis's chances of winning 2013 WDC? [split]


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#451 Juggles

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 13:57

The analysis is deeply flawed - historical results are not always good predictors of future performance - look at McLaren from 2008 to 2009, 2009 to 2010, Ferrari (likewise) and from 2010 to 2011, Honda to Brawn, Brawn to Mercedes W01, RB from 2010 to 2011 / 2011 to 2012, Lotus from 2011 to 2012, etc.

Teams move up and down, and tend to do so even more if their previous car was deeply flawed, which was the case of McLaren / Ferrari in 2009, and Mercedes in 2012.

Using past performance to predict future performance is very, very narrow-minded.


But using future performance to predict future performance isn't? I try to keep my expectations in check by asking myself, if Hamilton was still at McLaren how would I look upon Mercedes at this point? The answer is, with a bit of confusion thanks to their pace in testing, but ultimately expecting Hamilton in the McLaren to stand a much better chance of the world championship than either Mercedes driver.

The only reason you are filled with so much optimism by each and every ingredient Mercedes has added to their team in the last year or so is because Hamilton is now there, and there is a risk of spinning every change into a big positive because you so badly want it to be true. I desperately want it to be true too, but I have to ask whether enough could really have changed to allow them to challenge a team like Red Bull over an entire season of 19 races.

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#452 slmk

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 14:05

But using future performance to predict future performance isn't? I try to keep my expectations in check by asking myself, if Hamilton was still at McLaren how would I look upon Mercedes at this point? The answer is, with a bit of confusion thanks to their pace in testing, but ultimately expecting Hamilton in the McLaren to stand a much better chance of the world championship than either Mercedes driver.

The only reason you are filled with so much optimism by each and every ingredient Mercedes has added to their team in the last year or so is because Hamilton is now there, and there is a risk of spinning every change into a big positive because you so badly want it to be true. I desperately want it to be true too, but I have to ask whether enough could really have changed to allow them to challenge a team like Red Bull over an entire season of 19 races.


Wrong. I am just responding to the nonsense in this thread. To say that Mercedes doesn't have a shot because of their dismal 2011 and 2012 showings is as ridiculous as saying they locked up both titles because of testing performance in Barcelona.

Using a mix of past performance and actual 2013 performance is much smarter (until we hit the first GP). The W03 retains many elements of the W02 but in many ways seems to have fixed the inherent flaws of the W02 - whether they've been fixed or not to be seen in Australia.

My expectations? I don't think a podium is impossible; some teams are still trying to find themselves so Australia/Malaysia might be lotteries.

WDC? We will see once F1 returns to Europe. Everything is game right now, as of 11 March (so very little info on the pecking order).

Edited by slmk, 11 March 2013 - 14:06.


#453 Bruce

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 16:34

The analysis is deeply flawed - historical results are not always good predictors of future performance - look at McLaren from 2008 to 2009, 2009 to 2010, Ferrari (likewise) and from 2010 to 2011, Honda to Brawn, Brawn to Mercedes W01, RB from 2010 to 2011 / 2011 to 2012, Lotus from 2011 to 2012, etc.

Teams move up and down, and tend to do so even more if their previous car was deeply flawed, which was the case of McLaren / Ferrari in 2009, and Mercedes in 2012.

Using past performance to predict future performance is very, very narrow-minded.


Using past performance as an indicator, please tell me where Marussia and Caterham will finish this season. I expect you'll say the bottom 2, and almost surely, you'll be right. What would you be basing that on? At least partly on past performance. And, again, you'd be right.

The changes you mention in your first para are instructive, but for the most part the "movements" (from "bad" car to "good" car) netted the teams a single place in the CC, in spite of VAST improvements to the cars. A change and an improvement - but the same change would see the Mercedes finishing 4th this year.

Honda/Brawn/Mercedes? Not a valid comparison - Honda to Brawn saw the change of an engine supplier and the Brawn benefitted from a clever interpretation of the rules; and it was the end of that ability to exploit that clever interpretation of the rules that saw the new "mercedes" team fail to equal the success that the Brawn had.

Major changes in fortune in F1 are generally caused by one of three things; changes in rules (for instance, Brawn in 2009 with their diffuser interpretation, or Ferrari's "fall" in 2005 due [at least in part] to changes in tyre regs), supplier changes (1988 - emergence of McLaren as totally dominant with Honda engine - previous dominant Honda engine user Williams slips to an irrelevant 7th with their new "Judd, or later, after Honda pulled out, McLaren's "erosion from form" with Ford and Peugeot before picking up the Mercedes...) or finally, and most rarely, personnel change; (Red Bull adding Adrian Newey).

Certainly Mercedes addition of Hamilton should be a benefit to them, and it is possible that the additions they have made with Lauda, Wolff and Costa may help, but I don't think that you would argue that these last three are anywhere near as transformative as Newey...

No - I'm not dooming Mercedes in 5th place for 2013 because that's where they were last year. I'm simply saying that, even in they sort out everything that was wrong with their car last season, this does not necessarily mean that they will automatically have the best car on the track, and it is not as if all the other teams have been standing around the water cooler all off season waiting for Mercedes to catch up. Given the lack of major rules changes, the stasis in suppliers and the too-recent additions to the "new-look" Mercedes team, I find it difficult to believe that they will make a "quantum"leap - that would be much more likely to happen next year.

Of course, this is all merely my opinion, and I could be fantastically wrong - we'll know in a couple of months.... :wave:





#454 mlsnoopy

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 16:40

Better that they were when he joined Mercedes.

#455 Claudius

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 16:46


As a Lewis supporter I have to say chances of him winning the WDC this year are non-existant.
He'll probably win a race or two but WDC with a Mercedes at this time seems improbable.
I hope I'm wrong though.





#456 CookinFlatSix

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 16:56

No one is saying Merc will suddenly be the best car. Some are saying Merc could have sorted out the issues that gave them a deficit of about 2 seconds last year. some even say the field is a lot closer this year due to reg stability, still some say Merc might have moved to 4th fastest, and then some say the difference between 1st and 4th could be down to around 4/10ths

and the really crazy outlandish ones say given a bit of luck and circumstances Lewis could bring a few tenths over the other drivers due to maybe having his best year ever

and the the real loony tunes say, Lewis might have a slim chance of the WC for Merc in 2013

but the sane people convince us that it is completely impossible because things cannot change that quick from year to year and never have

http://en.wikipedia....Status_quo_bias

#457 bauss

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 17:03

Wrong. I am just responding to the nonsense in this thread. To say that Mercedes doesn't have a shot because of their dismal 2011 and 2012 showings is as ridiculous as saying they locked up both titles because of testing performance in Barcelona.

Using a mix of past performance and actual 2013 performance is much smarter (until we hit the first GP). The W03 retains many elements of the W02 but in many ways seems to have fixed the inherent flaws of the W02 - whether they've been fixed or not to be seen in Australia.

My expectations? I don't think a podium is impossible; some teams are still trying to find themselves so Australia/Malaysia might be lotteries.

WDC? We will see once F1 returns to Europe. Everything is game right now, as of 11 March (so very little info on the pecking order).


I agree....

time and again, we've seen past performance is not definitive of future performances... it is certainly not the norm, but it has happened enough to not rule it out.

We've seen enough changes and upheaval at Merc to expect atleast some progress this season, how much progress remains to be seen.

Do people remember just how terrible Renault were at the end of 2011? They turn up with what basically looks like the same car except for no front EBD and suddenly they are very competitive.

McLaren fondled with a silly exhaust throughout winter testing and looked 2 secs off pace or so...and another 2009 looked on the cards... they change that exhaust and bam, only right behind RB.

In this era, one bad design philosophy could make all the difference. There are signs Merc may finally have an handle on those issues at least to an extent.

I was quite pessimistic, but after observing all the info from the team including testing, I am cautiously optimistic....

will they be able to go 19 races toe to toe with RB? that may be a stretch, but driving, reliability and a bit of luck will play a huge effect too.... If the Merc racing operation proves to be a decent one a.l.a Ferrari last year, if the field is as close as many predict, then LH may be able to make his driving count (which McLaren negated last year)...and I'm positive he has the ability to do just that.

If FA could get so close to the title in what started a crappy Ferrari, I don't see why LH can't challenge for the title long as Merc dont suffer significantly more deg in races than others, and no team has a big advantage over the rest.

In terms of car competitiveness, my hunch post testing and pre Melbourne hasn't been incorrect for years... that hunch is telling me Merc will start the season in the mix.
The big question now is if the new structure can have a decent development rate throughout the season. To be honest right now, I actually don't see why not, if the car starts fast... I don't expect it to be as good as RB, but it may not need to.





#458 V3TT3L

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Posted 12 March 2013 - 05:41

Nice interview :up:

http://www.dailymail...rton-Senna.html

#459 jjcale

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Posted 12 March 2013 - 07:45

http://en.wikipedia....Status_quo_bias


.... ah that's the one I was looking for.

Its the one that's most relevant to this thread.