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What are Lewis's chances of winning 2013 WDC? [split]


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#51 seahawk

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 06:13

If they give Lewis a decent car, he will do the rest. It would be an epic achivement. MSC gone and Lewis leads the team to win the title. He would be the legend of F1.

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#52 Juggles

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 06:30

At this stage I think he is fifth most likely to win the championship. A lot of stars would need to align including (1) Mercedes giving him a car with at least comparable race pace to the other top teams (2) being able to develop it at a better rate than previously shown (3) Hamilton on top form as he was last season to ensure he beats his teammate (4) one of the other top teams not to find a joker card which makes their driver(s) unstoppable; Hamilton needs it to be close between the top teams so they all take points off each other. He is also likely to need poor reliability from McLaren and particularly Red Bull.

My hopes for 2013 are slightly more modest: I want him to beat Rosberg both in the points and on performances, and I want him to win a race. If that were to be Hamilton's 2013 I would be happy going into 2014. I'm sure my expectations will adjust after Melbourne though, hopefully in a positive way.

#53 bourbon

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 08:02

It isn't a matter of Mercedes simply doing better, it is also a matter of other teams not taking a step up alongside Merc. Then you will have a similar outcome to last year.

Lotus has been growing strength since Vitaly and Robert were in as Renault drivers. Robert being sidelined had a huge impact on Lotus and they didn't really start to recover until the season before last and this past season once again made great strides - you'd have to expect they will be even stronger next season, understanding and excited about their potential.

Macca will be strong and I would have to imagine the team will tighten up over the break. Ferrari and Red Bull will be strong as well.

Merc started off pretty strong, but then faded into the woodwork this last season and was the worst of the best the two years prior (always showing that speed in qually and then pooping out by Q3 and at race time - when other teams kicked it up a notch). Remember all those calls "slow down, watch the breaks, the engine is overheating, the breaks are overheating, the tyres are gone...." - yeah, so they have some work to do.

But in addition to kicking it up a few notches and being able to join the fray at last years threshhold for WCC contenders - if the other teams too kick it up a notch, Merc is going to have to match that performance. It is possible - anything is possible.

One thing - Lewis won't want for good food. Merc has the 2nd best smelling kitchen of all the teams. Only Ferrari's edged it.

#54 stanga

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 08:29

No chance of WDC, unfortunately. I think Lewis is realistic about that. A win would be great, and not impossible. but anymore is overoptimism.

#55 sopa

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 08:46

There is one example, which might be positive for Hamilton. Lotus. Like Mercedes in 2012, Lotus in 2011 started out well, but were unable to develop the car and finished distant 5th in the championship. However, in 2012 Raikkonen was a remote title contender.

#56 CHIUNDA

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 09:10

There is one example, which might be positive for Hamilton. Lotus. Like Mercedes in 2012, Lotus in 2011 started out well, but were unable to develop the car and finished distant 5th in the championship. However, in 2012 Raikkonen was a remote title contender.


:up: to the bold

Ironically the best chance for Mercedes might be the 3 years they have spent getting it wrong on their car. Let us look at this from a different perspective:

1. Mercedes have now had a three year development cycle for the W04
2. The rules are still fairly stable for 2013
3. The good concepts and solutions for these rules have been out there in McLaren, Ferrari, Red Bull and Lotus for 3 years now
4. Mercedes doesn't need to re-invent the wheel, it can cut and paste those concepts and solutions through quality corporate intelligence and poaching staff strategically from its four competitors
5. 2013 could be the year they crack it and finally fix the car for the current rules
6. Yeah, i know that is optimistic but why watch a competitive sport if you are gonna be pessimistic?


#57 showtime

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 09:30

I guess the fact that RBR has admitted they're behind on development for next year's car doesn't factor into this opinion?


They probably are just downplaying expectations. Even if they miss the first test it won't be a big deal, they already did it in 2010 and they had the best car.

#58 Bloggsworth

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 09:37

None - Why did you feel the need to ask a self-answering question?

#59 Gintonious

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 09:58

Lewis is more than capable of winning the title next year, or any year at that. The question hangs over Merc than him.

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#60 ayali

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 10:09

No chance of WDC, unfortunately. I think Lewis is realistic about that. A win would be great, and not impossible. but anymore is overoptimism.

That sounds quite realistic :up:

He has no chance, nothing to do with Lewis' capabilities though but everything with the high probability that 2 to 4 teams will be better than Mercedes next year.

A win, couple of podiums and a pole or 2 would be a good year for Merc and Lewis

#61 amppatel

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 10:17

P(LH winning title) = 1 - P(SB winning title) - P(FA winning title) - P(McLaren not screwing up their pit stops and JB stepping up)

It has nothing to do with the Merc car!

#62 BernieEc

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 10:31

No one knows if the Merc will be a good car or if Ferrari, McLaren or Redbull will come up with a dud. predicting in formula 1 is quite hard (Yes even though Vettel has won the last 3 titles) and narrowing it down to whether the Merc car will get a performance jump or if LH will deliver a sensational drive is akin to pure guess work.

am tired of these damn predictions and wild speculations. lets just wait till Aus and see what happens.

those friggin Mayans predicted the end of the world 2 weeks ago. I woke up expecting the Apocalypse, instead it was just raining in Berkshire with my boss on the phone yelling "where the f**k are you" ?

till it happens we will never know

#63 mattferg

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 10:39

Next season we have nearly the same rules as 2012. Never in the history of motorsport a team got from the fifth or sixth place in WCC to place one or two.The last years Mercedes was a dog, as the year before and the year before that. Hamilton in the title hunt would be a miracle, bigger than Brawn in 2009 (yet there was room for it because of the rule change). Hamilton should focus on realistic goals, a podium or fluke win. I guess he is - in contrary to some fans around here.


Red Bull Renault 2008 WCC: 7th
Red Bull Renault 2009 WCC: 2nd

#64 mattferg

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 10:42

Two miracles happened in 2009. Brawn as Honda moved from 9th to 1st and Red Bull moved from 7th to 2nd. As you say, there were rule changes to justify the big movement. Renault was 3rd in 2004 when it went on to win the championship in 2005. Ferrari was also 3rd in 2006 before it went on to win in 2007 It is therefore abit optimistic to expect Mercedes to go for the WCC in 2013 but it would not be unrealistic to expect it to fight for 3rd place in the WCC from 5th would it - that would probably involve some very good drives from Lewis and Nico, even one or two wins if not more. By all means such a season would be a big success for Mercedes.

Your bolded statement is however not entirely true - McLaren was 5th in 2005 and moved to 2nd in 2006 so going by precedence, Mercedes can realistically move from 5th in 2012 and fight for the championship in 2013. BMW Sauber was 8th in 2006 and shot to 2nd in 2007 albeit not with World Championship contesting points. If McLaren had been awarded the Championship that year, BMW Sauber would still have finished a very credible 3rd that year - a huge improved from near the bottom of the table. Actually stability in the top five teams seams to be more a feature of the 2009 rule changes rather than the history of F1 i.e. Red Bull, Mercedes, Ferrari and McLaren have consistently been in the top five since 2009 - so in a twisted way, Mercedes have been among the elite in the last couple of years. Though the last half of 2012 was not flattering to the Silver Arrows, i doubt other team managers are writing them off as easily as the fans are.


Ferrari finished 2nd in 2006, with their drivers 2nd and 3rd in the WDC. They almost won both championships but Schumacher lost them in the last race.

McLaren were 2nd in 2005 and went to third in 2006. Sauber were 5th in 2006 as well. Where are you getting these 'facts' from?!

Edited by mattferg, 04 January 2013 - 10:47.


#65 bub

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 10:45

3rd would be a great achievement. Winning it would just be insane.

#66 Anja

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 11:06

Haha, what chances?

No, but seriously - while Lewis is a fantastic driver, I would be really surprised if Merc will be any stronger than before, let alone capable of championship fight. It's the same story every year for them, this team is absolutely hopeless in my eyes.

#67 Lights

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 11:31

Last year Rosberg looked like a title contender up till around Canada, scoring a win and 2nd place on the way. It would be interesting to see the opinion on this next year if Hamilton is in a similar situation. I believe he will get closer to the title than Rosberg in the last 3 years if Mercedes continue their mediocre performance. If he wants to win it Mercedes simply needs to close the gap to the frontrunners. And I mean, really close it, not just a little. Fighting for a title in inferior material requires luck in other departments and Hamilton doesn't seem to have it.

#68 03011969

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 11:47

Chances very slim I would say*. Vettel in a Newey-designed car and Alonso in a Ferrari stand much great chance.

But, of course, Merc may have an ace up their sleeve like they did in 2009, but with next 2013's regs being similar to 2012 it seems less than likely.



#69 corf

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 12:00

I have more chance of dating Cameron Diaz than Lewis has of winning the title.

#70 Archybald

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 12:02

It all depends on the car. But here's some random stuff about mercedes in 2012.

This is how each driver finished last year
Schumacher: Ret,10,Ret,10,Ret,Ret,Ret,3,7,7Ret,7,6,Ret,11,13,22,11,16,7 Points= 49
Rosberg: 12,13,1,5,7,2,6,6,15,10,10,11,7,5,Ret,Ret,11,Ret,13,15 Points= 93

If we take the best finish of each driver and put it to 1 driver we end up with
Combined: 12,10,1,5,7,2,6,3,7,7,10,7,6,5,11,13,11,11,13,7 = 100

So if was driving for mercedes and managed to score the "highest" points that a merc driver had for each race in the 2012 he would have got 100 points for the season finishing 8th overall. Mercedes didnt have a car capable of winning the title last year.

While i'm at it lets go further with this bullshit-ology:

Lets assume he had managed to score 1 place better then the "combined driver" then he would have ended up with.
Combined-1: 11,9,1,4,6,1,5,2,6,6,9,6,5,4,10,12,10,10,12,6

For a total of 159 points which would have been enough for 7th place (Ok ok i didnt bother calculating how those positions would change the other drivers points so meh). But in other words mercedes needs to build a much better car then 2012 for lewis to have a shot at winning the title. But then again in 2008 honda finished 9th out of 11 teams, In 2009 they finished 1st out of 10 teams (after a major rule change). So it could happen.

#71 showtime

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 12:02

I have more chance of dating Cameron Diaz than Lewis has of winning the title.


If the unexpected happens I can see your post ending as someone's signature. :lol:

#72 Spillage

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 12:09

Not good, I'm afraid. The team just seem to be mired in half-decency but they seem to be incapable of making the big leap forwards from point-scorers to title contenders.

I'm afraid I have a nasty feeling that his chances of winning the 2014 title aren't very high either. It is far off in the future, but I just have that little faith in the team. Wouldn't particularly surprise me if 2013 was billed as a 'transitional' year, 2014 a total write-off and we end up with a disenchanted Hamilton facing the prospect of being forced to spend 2015 at a failing team, with Mercedes' interest in F1 waning accordingly.

#73 jjcale

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 12:14

There are some good rumours coming out of Brackley ... last time that happened was in winter 2008/9. Last year there were good rumours coming from the West of London ... and Macca produced a very good car.

My fingers are crossed till the first test ... not long now till we find out how/good bad the car will be.

#74 maverick69

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 13:08

If the W04 is like the W03 in the latter half of last year then he has more chance of getting to the moon on a motorbike.

However - if it has half decent latent pace and doesn't lunch the new spec Pirellis then who knows........ He did some pretty impressive things in the MP4-24 for example........

Hopefully it's a year where I can get all Kevin Keegan :smoking:

#75 bauss

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 13:33

it all depends on the car and development of Mercedes.

#76 LiJu914

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 13:40

If the W04 is like the W03 in the latter half of last year then he has more chance of getting to the moon on a motorbike.

However - if it has half decent latent pace and doesn't lunch the new spec Pirellis then who knows........ He did some pretty impressive things in the MP4-24 for example........

Hopefully it's a year where I can get all Kevin Keegan :smoking:


Well if Merc would finally get rid of their tyre problems, they would instantly make a huge step foward.
In a "Qualifying-WDC" the Mercs would have finished 6th (MSC) and 9th (NR)..discounting grid penalties. They just couldn´t carry over that potential into the races. Instead they were forced to drive slower and more cautiously than most of their competitors and still had worse degradation. Austin was probably the "climax" of that general situation.

Maybe the new Pirellis and the modified suspensions will solve it, even though the fact, that Merc made little progress in that area since 2011, doesn´t give an too optimistic outlook..but who knows.

#77 Watkins74

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 15:18

Going by the available data I would say his chances are 1 in 6.

#78 boldhakka

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 15:41

Not only does it depend on the car, which it obviously does, but also on how well Lewis fits into the culture at Merc. He'll have to get used to a whole new way of working, no data from previous races for a baseline setup to start with on Fridays, how much difference there is between his and Nico's setups, etc. drivers have traditionally made a few more errors than average when joining a new team. Lewis had a great rookie year, but I wouldn't rule out some driver or mis-communications related errors in 2013.

#79 Szoelloe

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 16:33

chance of a WDC? He has the same chance as NR. For today, 0%. Feb 4th 8.00 am: 0% Feb4 4.00pm: we will see. Everyone knows here its down to the car. Nobody could possibly know anything about the car's performance yet. If the car only a few tenths behind the contender car, he will not be able to do it. Alonso was a few tenths behind, and he only had fighting chance because he was freaky lucky in the first half of the season, and he couldn't do it. It is fairly sure that the W-04 will lack some speed at the beginning of the season, it should be a new design, not really an evolution. So its 0%.

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#80 Seanspeed

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 17:13

Ignorance to my words meanings obviously. Next time ask instead of assuming what I meant.

Wow, touchy. :lol:

Just a playful comment and I dont even think you understood it cuz that response doesn't make any sense.

Edited by Seanspeed, 04 January 2013 - 17:13.


#81 Collective

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 17:43

So bad it makes sense to bet a Jefferson in the hopes of becoming a millionaire.

#82 Tombstone

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 20:24

0%

#83 apoka

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 21:25

On betfair, he is the 4th most likely driver to win the WDC with an implied chance of 7% - 8%.

Anyone on the grid, apart from the new teams, has a > 0.1% chance to be WDC.


#84 Szoelloe

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 21:37

On betfair, he is the 4th most likely driver to win the WDC with an implied chance of 7% - 8%.

Anyone on the grid, apart from the new teams, has a > 0.1% chance to be WDC.


Yes. If the title of this thread would include the word "odds", you would have a point of debate there. But the word is "chances". Betfair is making money on those odds, and they are pretty well and thoroughly calculated. Take a look at last year's odds, if you wish. :)


#85 Kvothe

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 22:16

Higher than anybody driving a HRT.

#86 Szoelloe

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 22:27

Higher than anybody driving a HRT.


LOL, yes. Still, I think there is so much more to win from this than a WDC in the first year. So much more.


#87 Tombstone

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 22:30

On betfair, he is the 4th most likely driver to win the WDC with an implied chance of 7% - 8%.

Anyone on the grid, apart from the new teams, has a > 0.1% chance to be WDC.


Ever heard of rounding?

betfair shmetfair, I don't trust bookies. Or value their opinion.

Edited by Tombstone, 05 January 2013 - 13:38.


#88 TF110

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Posted 05 January 2013 - 05:52

Wow, touchy. :lol:

Just a playful comment and I dont even think you understood it cuz that response doesn't make any sense.

Read it again. It makes more sense than your original rebuttal. I said

The new details emerging from what Brawn is saying sound enthusiastic.

then you follow up with:

Sounds like you're falling for it just as much as Lewis did.

I'm not falling for anything, I only said Brawn sounds enthusiastic.

Edited by TF110, 05 January 2013 - 06:03.


#89 ForzaGTR

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Posted 05 January 2013 - 10:07

He's the least likely existing champion to win the title next year. However, it's not impossible. Isn't the Merc for next year the first car that will have been solely built by the current team? They could surprise us all and Lewis doesn't need the best car to win races.

Anyway, never say never. But safe money is on Vettel becoming a 4xWDC winner.

#90 apoka

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Posted 05 January 2013 - 14:47

Yes. If the title of this thread would include the word "odds", you would have a point of debate there. But the word is "chances". Betfair is making money on those odds, and they are pretty well and thoroughly calculated. Take a look at last year's odds, if you wish. :)

betfair shmetfair, I don't trust bookies. Or value their opinion.

On betfair.com, users are betting against other users. So, the betting community there thinks his chances are around 7-8%. Betfair is making money by fees on the money you win.

I'm not sure why you mention last years odds. especially since the betting favourite won the WDC. Of course, there is lots of uncertainty before a season. Here is a listing of the odds before the first race: http://f1-bettings.c...hip-title-2012/ All 6 top listed drivers were the top 6 at the end of the season. Alonso is quite low there, because Ferrari looked quite bad in testing. I'm not saying that odds are gospel though - especially on the first race weekend they can and will change quickly. However, they usually give a good approximation on what the chances are as they combine different opinions.

Ever heard of rounding?

Yes. What is your point?


#91 sheepgobba

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Posted 05 January 2013 - 14:56

Basically 0%

He'll do well to get couple of wins and podiums here and there.

#92 jjcale

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Posted 05 January 2013 - 15:36

Dont understand how people can be happy to offer up such firm opinions on this having seen none of the 2013 cars so much as turn wheel...

#93 spacekid

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Posted 05 January 2013 - 15:37

As long as they don't botch pitstops, and the car doesn't fail him 1 out of 5 times, he will be in a good position to challenge for the title IMO. The new details emerging from what Brawn is saying sound enthusiastic. I think Hamilton will surprise, or maybe not, and we expect him to be able to accomplish great things even with a slower car- look at 2009 as an example.


Ross always makes enthusiastic noises about the new car. Next we'll be hearing about how Mercedes really understand the new tyres. We shall see come testing time.

I think you over rate the ability of the Brackley team to put a competitive package together (the Honda funded fluke of the first half of 2009 aside, and look how the pointy star has wained since then). Lewis is very good, but I'm not convinced he's fundamentally superior to Alonso or Seb, which he would need to be to make up the likely performance deficit of the car next year. If he gets a few podiums next year I think he will have done very well.

#94 MP422

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Posted 05 January 2013 - 16:56

Dont understand how people can be happy to offer up such firm opinions on this having seen none of the 2013 cars so much as turn wheel...


I don't understand this either, F1 has the possibility to surprise... or at least Pirelli..

#95 Lone

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Posted 05 January 2013 - 18:00

If the car is the best or thereabout he will have a chance to win the title. But even then it will be difficult with a new team and a new way of working. The team doesn't know him and his preferences and vice versa. Also Rosberg will, in my opinion, be a tough nut to crack. Against popular belief I believe Hamilton could struggle in qualifying against Rosberg!

But anything is possible and next year we will truly see how good he is and at the same time how good Button and even Alonso is. An exciting year.

Personally, I don't think he has any chance to win a single race (due to the car), but I have been wrong many times before.

Edited by Lone, 05 January 2013 - 18:05.


#96 Seanspeed

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Posted 05 January 2013 - 18:02

I'm not falling for anything, I only said Brawn sounds enthusiastic.

And you're partially basing your idea that Lewis has a good chance of winning the title on it, are you not? Just like Lewis!

It was just a light-hearted comment, though. Relax.

#97 jjcale

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Posted 05 January 2013 - 18:07

I don't understand this either, F1 has the possibility to surprise... or at least Pirelli..


Giving that this board is not meant to be made up of casual fans and is meant for people who have some understanding of how F1 works, it is seriously disappointing that people seem not to understand that until we see what the car is like there is no point in speculating .... basing assumptions on last years car is just stupid - even taking into account that we have stable regs ATM.

Better to do what KR always says "justwaitansee".... its only a few more weeks to go.

#98 Seanspeed

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Posted 05 January 2013 - 18:13

Giving that this board is not meant to be made up of casual fans and is meant for people who have some understanding of how F1 works, it is seriously disappointing that people seem not to understand that until we see what the car is like there is no point in speculating .... basing assumptions on last years car is just stupid - even taking into account that we have stable regs ATM.

Better to do what KR always says "justwaitansee".... its only a few more weeks to go.

The same team have won the WDC and WCC the past 3 years. Its pretty safe to say that there is often some level of continuity that occurs in F1. Its not guaranteed, of course, but you cant blame people for thinking that things will likely remain similar considering the rules are hardly changing.

#99 undersquare

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Posted 05 January 2013 - 18:14

I'd want better odds than the 16:1 that's on offer atm.

What odds would tempt me to put a tenner on? It's a question.

The new tiny gearbox has to be reliable. It has to be true that it was the exhaust that was frying the rears last year, and that the people who took all year to suss that out aren't in those positions any more.

The new FW tests have to hit RBR, and whatever went wrong at Ferrari has to stay wrong.

I think...30:1 is around the tipping point for me, atm.

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#100 spacekid

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Posted 05 January 2013 - 18:15

Giving that this board is not meant to be made up of casual fans and is meant for people who have some understanding of how F1 works, it is seriously disappointing that people seem not to understand that until we see what the car is like there is no point in speculating .... basing assumptions on last years car is just stupid - even taking into account that we have stable regs ATM.

Better to do what KR always says "justwaitansee".... its only a few more weeks to go.


I disagree that looking at Mercedes progress over the past few years, and the final updates they bought at the end of 2012, and judging it very unlikely that they will produce a car superior to Red Bull and McLaren and Ferrari is 'stupid'.

Given that the regs are stable I would also disagree that it is 'stupid' to speculate that Mercedes do not have a strong base platform or understanding of the current regs. I don't think it is 'stupid' to suggest that they have lost ground to the teams ahead of and around them, which will require either
a) A fundementally different car for 2013, which is unlikely to be definitively quick out of the box and will require updates and work to develop just to get to the level many of the others are already at. Not the best way to forge a championship winning campaign
b) A magic wand to make the current philosophy work

I think I have a fair understanding of F1, but if this is a stupid opinion to have, then sling your mud.

99% of what is written on this board is speculation, even if its well informed speculation.