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What are Lewis's chances of winning 2013 WDC? [split]


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#151 Buttoneer

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Posted 07 January 2013 - 10:46

If the car is a good one, then you'd be brave to bet against him.

Obviously the question cannot be answered in categorical terms because we're a long way from understanding how the cars shape up for 2013. However, I like to think Lewis has a little bit more in him that either Schumie or Rosberg did in 2012, so if the car is as good as it was last year (comparatively) I would expect a win or even two, but no more than that. In those circumstances, I can see Lewis being a factor in the WDC, but not a contender.

It's worth remembering how bad reliability was at Merc last year too. Regardless of the performance of the car, the teams needs to shape up on that aspect otherwise all the pushing in the world by Lewis will still leave him at the side of the road waiting for a ride on a scooter.

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#152 TF110

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Posted 07 January 2013 - 19:52

And you're partially basing your idea that Lewis has a good chance of winning the title on it, are you not? Just like Lewis!

It was just a light-hearted comment, though. Relax.

Actually, no. I'm basing it off of Lewis's abilities and his never die spirit. And a little hope he has a good car under him. Interesting fact is the car had a great chance at winning Monaco in 2012. Seems the mechanical (tire) grip was there, but aero was lacking. Shumacher and Rosberg initially qualified 1st and 3rd. So the tire grip was there. Lewis and Webber were the other two inthe top 4. One of those guys is coming to Mercedes. So maybe we can look forward to him taking another Monaco win. Maybe they can duplicate Shanghai? Maybe without the DRS over the whole track, their top speed will be an advantage in Monza? There's lots of reasonable possibilities for them taking a win.

#153 garoidb

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Posted 07 January 2013 - 20:04

Actually, no. I'm basing it off of Lewis's abilities and his never die spirit. And a little hope he has a good car under him. Interesting fact is the car had a great chance at winning Monaco in 2012. Seems the mechanical (tire) grip was there, but aero was lacking. Shumacher and Rosberg initially qualified 1st and 3rd. So the tire grip was there. Lewis and Webber were the other two inthe top 4. One of those guys is coming to Mercedes. So maybe we can look forward to him taking another Monaco win. Maybe they can duplicate Shanghai? Maybe without the DRS over the whole track, their top speed will be an advantage in Monza? There's lots of reasonable possibilities for them taking a win.


A GP win (or two) in 2013 is certainly possible for Lewis. I would consider it more likely than not that he will win at least one GP.

#154 Szoelloe

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Posted 07 January 2013 - 20:21

Actually, no. I'm basing it off of Lewis's abilities and his never die spirit. And a little hope he has a good car under him. Interesting fact is the car had a great chance at winning Monaco in 2012. Seems the mechanical (tire) grip was there, but aero was lacking. Shumacher and Rosberg initially qualified 1st and 3rd. So the tire grip was there. Lewis and Webber were the other two inthe top 4. One of those guys is coming to Mercedes. So maybe we can look forward to him taking another Monaco win. Maybe they can duplicate Shanghai? Maybe without the DRS over the whole track, their top speed will be an advantage in Monza? There's lots of reasonable possibilities for them taking a win.


What you have described is entirely possible. Your reasoning is correct. Apart from the apparent dumbies, few will think otherwise, and it should be the minimum the team is aiming for. That is still not a WDC scenario however. There is still the question of the car's overall competitiveness. Basing your optimism on LH's abilities alone, is a mistake. They were not short in that field in the previous seasons either. The car sucked. Now, they have a pretty solid structure set up, but the car will be new, from new people. If they are top three, that's a feat, if they are higher, that is a miracle.

#155 TF110

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Posted 07 January 2013 - 20:28

The cards need to fall right for Lewis (or Rosberg) to challenge for the WDC. It's not unreasonable to think they can win a few races. No one knows if they will. I'm just holding out faith that they have a car and team capable of it. Not just throw it on Lewis's shoulders and hope for the best.

Edited by TF110, 07 January 2013 - 20:30.


#156 Szoelloe

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Posted 07 January 2013 - 20:35

The cards need to fall right for Lewis (or Rosberg) to challenge for the WDC. It's not unreasonable to think they can win a few races. No one knows if they will. I'm just holding out faith that they have a car and team capable of it. Not just throw it on Lewis's shoulders and hope for the best.


You say nothing I personally cannot agree with. I am just saying that the thread is about his chances for a WDC next year. Those are still pretty slim. I also said that there is way more to his decision to sign than being a champion next year.


#157 TF110

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Posted 07 January 2013 - 22:08

So you think. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but that's just it. An opinion. Don't say it was cash that made him move, as McLaren would have equaled or bettered it. I'm glad he moved to Mercedes.

#158 Szoelloe

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Posted 07 January 2013 - 22:36

So you think. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but that's just it. An opinion. Don't say it was cash that made him move, as McLaren would have equaled or bettered it. I'm glad he moved to Mercedes.


You are slightly paranoid, and I am kind to you. Its not the team who is putting pressure on your driver but you and your kind. I meant that you are impatient. He is NOT a complete driver yet. Not coming from a lifetime of Mc. He has a hill to climb. This is going to be a different task than what he has done before. He now has the chance to become something more than he is. That is, in my opinion worth a lot more than you hoping for a WDC contender car from the go. it is most probable that he will have to work his ass off to make the W04 better throughout the season. he seems to make noises indicating that he is perfectly aware of that, some of you though are expecting a miracle. Though anything is possible, chances are they will be behind at the start of the season. If not, hooray. Try to tune it down a little. Its getting disturbing.


#159 TF110

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Posted 07 January 2013 - 22:55

You are slightly paranoid, and I am kind to you. Its not the team who is putting pressure on your driver but you and your kind. I meant that you are impatient. He is NOT a complete driver yet. Not coming from a lifetime of Mc. He has a hill to climb. This is going to be a different task than what he has done before. He now has the chance to become something more than he is. That is, in my opinion worth a lot more than you hoping for a WDC contender car from the go.

No. I'm not paranoid, this is the internet, bud. I don't put pressure on anyone. I merely watch the race. This thread wasn't even started by me, it was split from a conversation in the Mercedes W04 thread :rolleyes: I don't care if he's a 'complete' driver yet or not. IMO he's as fast or faster than any driver, and last year he really matured. Everyone has their moments. I care less what he posts on twitter or how he lives his life.

it is most probable that he will have to work his ass off to make the W04 better throughout the season. he seems to make noises indicating that he is perfectly aware of that, some of you though are expecting a miracle. Though anything is possible, chances are they will be behind at the start of the season. If not, hooray. Try to tune it down a little. Its getting disturbing.

If it's so disturbing why are you replying to me? First off, I didn't say he'd win the championship. I said he has a chance. I think a good chance seeing how up and down last season was with DNFs. If the car and team don't fail him, he will be in good shoes. I don't expect anything. Like I said, I only hope he has a good car to see him race well. All that other crap is assumptions on what you think I expect. I don't know the future, but I do know Lewis is a terrific driver and that I look forward to him being in the Mercedes and challenging at the front.

Edited by TF110, 07 January 2013 - 22:57.


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#160 teejay

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 08:38

I stand to make a decent dollar if he does :)

#161 seahawk

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 08:48

The same Brackley team since BAR days? He won't win a championship there. I am sorry to say that.


Same was said about Button or Ferrari in 1996. I think Lewis will win 2013. The best driver is always a challenger for the title, even in a not so good car. Imagine the McLaren would have been reliable, Lewis would have dominated 2012.

#162 garoidb

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 08:56

Same was said about Button or Ferrari in 1996. I think Lewis will win 2013. The best driver is always a challenger for the title, even in a not so good car. Imagine the McLaren would have been reliable, Lewis would have dominated 2012.


If the McLaren had been reliable, it would have been best or equal best car over the season. And, unfortunately, the best driver is not always a challenger for the title. To take one of your own examples, Schumacher did not challenge for the title in 1996.

#163 AnR

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 09:18

If the McLaren had been reliable, it would have been best or equal best car over the season. And, unfortunately, the best driver is not always a challenger for the title. To take one of your own examples, Schumacher did not challenge for the title in 1996.


There is so many things that should come together for a driver to be a challenger for the drivers title, and also for a team to be a challenger for the constructors title.
For Lewis, who hasn't been a challenger since 2010, and Mercedes, who hasn't been since ? it would take a lot off things to come together but stranger things have happened.

I would give him 1 % chance to challenge, just by the factors that are in place, Merc engine, Ross Brawn, and the freshments off a new challenge for Lewis

#164 Rinehart

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 09:40

Same was said about Button or Ferrari in 1996. I think Lewis will win 2013. The best driver is always a challenger for the title, even in a not so good car. Imagine the McLaren would have been reliable, Lewis would have dominated 2012.


Its really not as simple as that. Alonso didn't challenge for the title in the 2008 Renault, Hamilton in the 2009 McLaren. These guys are a tiny weeny bit better than the other F1 drivers, they're not v12 engines! Also, for Hamilton to score a lot of points during the season in an uncompetitive car, he's going to need to score consistently, whereas Hamiltons style in a crappy car is likely to be a bit more win or bust! Should be fun to watch!!!

Secondly, on a point of order (!), Vettel beat Hamilton by 91 points in 2012, after losing 50 odd points at places like Valencia, Monza and Malaysia through no fault of his own.

Hamilton, by reasonable standards lost about 100 points so, deducting 50 from that, he's still 50 points behind Vettel with equal "luck".

I'm not bashing, I would have preferred Hamilton to have won the title, but the idea that only McLaren reliability cost Hamilton the chance of the title is a stretch. He'd not even certainly have won, let alone "dominate"!!!



#165 trogggy

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 13:29

What are Lewis's chances of winning 2013 WDC?

Bugger all.
Another way to put it, though, would be 'A bit better than Button's chances going into 2009.'
You can't rule anything out.

#166 Kvothe

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 16:14

Its really not as simple as that. Alonso didn't challenge for the title in the 2008 Renault, Hamilton in the 2009 McLaren. These guys are a tiny weeny bit better than the other F1 drivers, they're not v12 engines! Also, for Hamilton to score a lot of points during the season in an uncompetitive car, he's going to need to score consistently, whereas Hamiltons style in a crappy car is likely to be a bit more win or bust! Should be fun to watch!!!

Secondly, on a point of order (!), Vettel beat Hamilton by 91 points in 2012, after losing 50 odd points at places like Valencia, Monza and Malaysia through no fault of his own.

Hamilton, by reasonable standards lost about 100 points so, deducting 50 from that, he's still 50 points behind Vettel with equal "luck".

I'm not bashing, I would have preferred Hamilton to have won the title, but the idea that only McLaren reliability cost Hamilton the chance of the title is a stretch. He'd not even certainly have won, let alone "dominate"!!!


IMO I have to disagree and say Hamilton lost more than 100 points, I've included all his incidents, and what I think he would have got but for factors out of his control.

Aus: Safety car - 3 points

China (gearbox penalty from 2nd to 7th: 3/10 depending on whether you thought he could have won.)

Spain disqualification: 21

Valencia: Maldonaldo- 15/12 depending on if you thought he could have hold off Maldonaldo

Germany: Puncture- 12/15 (probably wouldn't have beaten Button but would have been right behind him with the pace of the McLaren, and would have gained a place after Vettel's penalty.

Spa: Grosjean- 4/ upwards, depending on where he would have finished, I'm unable to call where I think he would have finished.

Singapore: gearbox failure - 25

Japan 15 (conservative estimate, but considering he finished fourth with a broken rear damper that lasted throughout qualifying and the race) saying at least third is quite fair.

Korea: 15: Qualified third with broken rear suspension, Lost a place to Alonso but was gaining on him until the failure became worse, considering Massa caught up to Alonso and was asked to slow down this appears a good estimate.

Abu Dhabi: 25 - fuel pickup problem

Brasil:25 - Hulkenberg.

MInimum estimate: 160 points lost
Maximum estimate: 173 +

This of course doesn't include how many points Vettel gained thanks to Hamilton's problems and vice versa.

Edited by Kvothe, 08 January 2013 - 16:16.


#167 LiJu914

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 16:24

Germany: Puncture- 12/15 (probably wouldn't have beaten Button but would have been right behind him with the pace of the McLaren, and would have gained a place after Vettel's penalty.


Perhaps there would´ve been no penalty and Vettel would´ve fnished 2nd or even first as Button could mainly jump Vettel in the pits due to Hamilton unlapping himself,which of course wouldn´t have happened in your scenario.
Just one example of how an "altered reality" lead to such a amount of possible scenarios, that it all gets a little bit more complicated than "add x points here and deduct y points there..."

Edited by LiJu914, 08 January 2013 - 16:27.


#168 PretentiousBread

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 16:29

Perhaps there would´ve been no penalty and Vettel would´ve fnished 2nd or even first as Button could jump Vettel in the pits mainly due to Hamilton unlapping himself....
Just one example of how a "altered reality" lead to such a amount of possible scenarios, that it all get a little bit more complicated than "add x points here and deduct y points there..."


Of course, but it's more logical to consider these scenarios rather than ignore them altogether, because if you do ignore them then there's no point in debating anything really, what's done is done and you can rank how good each driver is in order of where they finished in the WDC, 1st - 24th, because anything else is just a hypothetical, right?

#169 LiJu914

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 16:41

Of course, but it's more logical to consider these scenarios rather than ignore them altogether.


"Consider" is something different than recalculating it to the last digit.

I just took Hockenheim as one single example. Another would be: Why can we - according to that calculation - take it for granted, that Hamilton would´ve won in Brazil? The accident happened, because Hulk challenged him for the lead, which he had lost not long before.... There would´ve been still a long way to go, including the continuing changes in weather.

I think it´s fair to say, that HAM lost a huge amount of points due to reasons, which were not his own fault and that he could´ve fought for - or even won - the WDC otherwise. Everything else is too academic imho.

Edited by LiJu914, 09 January 2013 - 08:42.


#170 PretentiousBread

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 17:13

"Consider" is something different than recalculating it to the last digit.

I just took Hockenheim as one single example. Another would be: Why can we - according to that calculation - take it for granted, that Hamilton would´ve won in Brazil? The accident happened, because Hulk challenged him for the lead, which he had lost not long before.... There would´ve been still a long way to go, including the continuing changes in weather.

I think it´s fair to say, that HAM lost a huge amount of points due to reasons, which were not his own fault and that he could´ve fought for - or even won - the WDC otherwise. Everything else is too academic imho.


I agree. But I don't think Kvothe's total is the point he is making, he's just illustrating how differently it could all look. What annoys me is when people dismiss these things in their entirety just because they're obviously not 100% accurate. You can nitpick about the amount of points, but the overall effect shouldn't be dismissed. For what it's worth I did my own calculations removing zero fault incidents for both drivers, and Hamilton won the title by a mere 7 points with a conservative estimate, but won by about 30 points with a less conservative estimate. Both were more conservative estimates than Kvothe's list was btw.

In conclusion, Hamilton drove easily well enough to win the title, nevermind just be involved in the championship battle.

#171 MinT

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 17:24

This now appears to be the Lewis Hamilton thread.....

#172 Buttoneer

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 18:09

Then lets get it back on track and ask, if points are not important and subjective yet reasonable and educated evaluation is, why anyone is trying to rework the points tally at all? I think I'm right in saying that everyone has accepted that Hamilton performed better than Button did in 2012, and that he lost 'a handful of points' yet still finished ahead, so why is the exact number of points an issue at all? Exactly what is the thrust of the argument? To create a 'gulf' or a 'league' or a 'class' between them?

The big problem is that people can easily create points deficits from those very clear incidents where a driver is a victim of an incident on track, on TV, in front of you. There can probably even be an argument about whether parts failures are in part down to driving style because we know this can be true but not whether it is so in these instances. But it is impossible to do the same with setup because we are ignorant of the issues.

Button is not two seconds a lap slower than Lewis on any track, and his early season slump is impossible to re-evaluate on anything like the same terms as a collision, or a parts failure. I couldn't possibly type with a straight face that Button would have got to the chequered flag a maximum of two places away from Hamilton at Spain. It's a silly claim. But it's really no more silly than us here analysing public quotes and snippets of information and saying that it was all down to Button, blind development alleys, Whitmarsh favouritism, too much equality or any of the other things some of the less reasonable contributions have suggested it is. Like somehow we have a window into an F1 team and know how it all plays out.

We don't.

All we can really do is see that there was a slump/DNF/crash and take the season for what it was, and how it played out, watching each driver and taking pleasure from their good performances and accepting the pain of the bad. Lewis is a very exciting driver to watch and it was incredibly frustrating when he was doing so well and failed to finish for any reason. I can see that this all looks like opportunities lost and a crime with an apparent victim, but it's not really important enough to draw battle lines over or try and rewrite history to make it more palatable, because it is an exercise carried out in ignorance of all the facts and circumstances.

#173 P123

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 18:29

I think I'm right in saying that everyone has accepted that Hamilton performed better than Button did in 2012, and that he lost 'a handful of points' yet still finished ahead, so why is the exact number of points an issue at all?


Nobody is ever going to agree on 'points lost'. All that can be said is that he lost a lot of points, largely due to factors outwith his control. I'm not sure how this relates to him winning the WDC in 2013, except for the fact that Mercedes were as inept operationally as McLaren were last season. Both would struggle to be as bad again as they were in 2012.

#174 bub

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 18:38

Nobody is ever going to agree on 'points lost'. All that can be said is that he lost a lot of points, largely due to factors outwith his control. I'm not sure how this relates to him winning the WDC in 2013, except for the fact that Mercedes were as inept operationally as McLaren were last season. Both would struggle to be as bad again as they were in 2012.


Agreed. The only way I can think to relate Hamilton's points lost in 2012 to his chances in 2013 is maybe to say if he has a car as quick compared to the competition as 2012 but without the bad luck then he has an excellent chance of another WDC..

#175 jjcale

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 19:29

What are Lewis's chances of winning 2013 WDC?

Bugger all.
Another way to put it, though, would be 'A bit better than Button's chances going into 2009.'
You can't rule anything out.


Brawn were making the same kind of noises about their car in the winter of 2008 that Merc are making today .... it could be more BS but we have to wait and see.

I remember even Honda fans were having a go at me back then for saying that the car would good back in december 2008 ... they were not even sure of being on the grid back then - but they knew they had a good car. Similar noises are coming out of Brackley this winter.... it could be BS - but I am prepared to suspend assumptions until the first test.

#176 Kvothe

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 20:12

Perhaps there would´ve been no penalty and Vettel would´ve fnished 2nd or even first as Button could mainly jump Vettel in the pits due to Hamilton unlapping himself,which of course wouldn´t have happened in your scenario.
Just one example of how an "altered reality" lead to such a amount of possible scenarios, that it all gets a little bit more complicated than "add x points here and deduct y points there..."


True, there's always the fact that one slightly changed outcome, would than have a ripple effect consequently affecting everything else, which is why I chose to solely deal with the factors outside of Lewis control to show ceterus paribus, that imo he lost enough points through operational problems, mechanical factors, and other drivers, that even if you disagree with me and didn't think he could have won the championship, it showed it at least cost him a chance of fighting for the WDC in Brazil. This is the opposite of Rhinehearts post and the implication that either the driver or the car wasn't good enough, and its relevance to Lewis' chances in a relatively weaker car compared to the opposition.

#177 Kvothe

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 20:13

This now appears to be the Lewis Hamilton thread.....


What was it before?

#178 Seanspeed

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 21:23

Brawn were making the same kind of noises about their car in the winter of 2008 that Merc are making today .... it could be more BS but we have to wait and see.

I remember even Honda fans were having a go at me back then for saying that the car would good back in december 2008 ... they were not even sure of being on the grid back then - but they knew they had a good car. Similar noises are coming out of Brackley this winter.... it could be BS - but I am prepared to suspend assumptions until the first test.

Gotta remember that a large part of their 2009 success came from the rules change and having a head start on the other top teams with their DDD idea. They wont have any such advantage going into 2013. They really need to come up with something special, and that will be very difficult if they're working from a blank slate during a period of stability in the rules.

#179 flatlander48

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Posted 09 January 2013 - 00:35

I'd be interested to know when Alonso said that. I remember an occasion where he made noises of that kind about Lewis, but it was in the context of considering his rivals, and therefore did not include Fernando himself (although this was ignored by many posters at the time, and taken to mean that Alonso acknowledged Lewis to be superior in that area).


http://en.espnf1.com...tory/64039.html


"But let's consider India, when he took second place in qualifying. It's like soccer: if Real Madrid or Barcelona are not performing particularly well on a given season, that does not mean that they're not top league. In fact, at the next winter testing he [Hamilton] will be the only one I'll be watching closely. The other guys can win if they've got the best car; he's the one who's able to clinch a championship with a car that's not the best."

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#180 MP422

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Posted 09 January 2013 - 02:57

Gotta remember that a large part of their 2009 success came from the rules change and having a head start on the other top teams with their DDD idea. They wont have any such advantage going into 2013. They really need to come up with something special, and that will be very difficult if they're working from a blank slate during a period of stability in the rules.


They have Lewis Hamilton !!!

#181 jjcale

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Posted 09 January 2013 - 03:18

Gotta remember that a large part of their 2009 success came from the rules change and having a head start on the other top teams with their DDD idea. They wont have any such advantage going into 2013. They really need to come up with something special, and that will be very difficult if they're working from a blank slate during a period of stability in the rules.


I agree ... I dont think they can be dominant ... but it is possible that they will be competitive

#182 garoidb

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Posted 09 January 2013 - 08:34

http://en.espnf1.com...tory/64039.html


"But let's consider India, when he took second place in qualifying. It's like soccer: if Real Madrid or Barcelona are not performing particularly well on a given season, that does not mean that they're not top league. In fact, at the next winter testing he [Hamilton] will be the only one I'll be watching closely. The other guys can win if they've got the best car; he's the one who's able to clinch a championship with a car that's not the best."


Yes, that is the one I was thinking of. It was in the context of stating that Lewis was still the driver he was most fearful of and distinguishes him from "the other guys". Alonso himself is not included in this comparison.

#183 mlsnoopy

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Posted 09 January 2013 - 10:33

Gotta remember that a large part of their 2009 success came from the rules change and having a head start on the other top teams with their DDD idea. They wont have any such advantage going into 2013. They really need to come up with something special, and that will be very difficult if they're working from a blank slate during a period of stability in the rules.


But how much of the problems last year were down to the tyres. Lets look at Canada as an example. Hamilton won the race with a brilliant performance, where as Button was even worst than the Mercedes.

#184 PretentiousBread

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Posted 09 January 2013 - 17:57

Then lets get it back on track and ask, if points are not important and subjective yet reasonable and educated evaluation is, why anyone is trying to rework the points tally at all? I think I'm right in saying that everyone has accepted that Hamilton performed better than Button did in 2012, and that he lost 'a handful of points' yet still finished ahead, so why is the exact number of points an issue at all? Exactly what is the thrust of the argument? To create a 'gulf' or a 'league' or a 'class' between them?


Because from points totals you can't make any distinction between how much of it was driver, and how much it was circumstance. Reworking the points totals in a fictional universe, albeit flawed, is still more reflective of how the driver personally performed than the WDC standings are.

The thrust of the argument is because certain posters hold up the overall points tally over the course of three years to mean that they're either roughly equal as drivers, or mean that it is at least very, very close, with Hamilton shading it by the merest whisker. Yet if you consider that Hamilton lost 100+ points in 2012 alone to factors outside of his control, then it puts the overall points tally into some perspective. My position has never been that Hamilton is in another league to Button, in the way that say Alonso is to Massa (at least Massa post Hungary '09) - but I have always insisted that he is definitely the better driver, and there is a reason why there is a considered 'big 3' and not 'big 4' drivers in F1.


#185 SR388

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Posted 09 January 2013 - 20:38

At this point I do not know if McLaren has a shot at the title. It is too early to say. We can only hope Merc has figured out their problems and the car is good on tires.

#186 Clatter

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 14:29

At this point I do not know if McLaren has a shot at the title. It is too early to say. We can only hope Merc has figured out their problems and the car is good on tires.


What has Mercs problems got to do with Mac?

#187 Seanspeed

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 14:48

But how much of the problems last year were down to the tyres. Lets look at Canada as an example. Hamilton won the race with a brilliant performance, where as Button was even worst than the Mercedes.

Most teams got to grips with the tires. Mercedes, on the other hand, slid back like a guy with sandals trying to climb a muddy hill. I remember Mercedes saying all year long, "We think we've understood the tire situation now." But come raceday, sure enough, it became quickly apparent that for whatever they think they learned, they certainly didn't know how to fix it. This is just another in a long line of events pointing to the team having a lackluster ability to comprehend issues and resolve them.

#188 Buttoneer

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 16:38

Because from points totals you can't make any distinction between how much of it was driver, and how much it was circumstance. Reworking the points totals in a fictional universe, albeit flawed, is still more reflective of how the driver personally performed than the WDC standings are.

No it's not because some of the reasons for the points loss are not possible to evaluate unless you're part of the team. To what extent are gearbox failures down to the driver? When they fly off a kerb, the engines rev wildly so how much of the driving style affects that? Is a sharp turn-in which creates a shorter but higher moment of stress worse than a lower force applied for longer? Over what period? How much experience does the engineering team need to properly understand and correct for a car which will understeer on one corner but oversteer on the next, and do they have this?

I simply do not accept that Button is, under any circumstances, 1.5 seconds slower over a lap than Hamilton purely as a function of their skill. Hamilton went out of his way at Monza to try and demonstrate how one decision went wrong for him and we have no idea to what extent similar decisions made at other times were detrimental to one or both.

Counting up all the perceived wrongs means that you have missed all those you cannot see or quantify in any meaningful way however many or few there were. The flaws in the fictional universe are far too great and unknown in what we all know is an incredibly technical sport with fine tolerances.

What these lists are trying to do is create an absolute number where none can exist, for the purposes of simplifying the argument. It's for those who prefer to glance at the number of stars a movie review gives, rather than read the text, and F1 is too complex for that sort of simplicity.

Brawn and Hamilton have both said that they have made 2014 their focus, which means in 2013 Lewis is going to suffer a lot of highs and lows, not all of which will be immediately obvious to the casual observer. If the car is the 4th or 5th best, and the drivers are chasing one or two points per race, the possibility exists for one of these drivers to have more than double the points of the other even though they finish one behind the other. That would not make one of them twice as good, and maybe not even make the one with most points better, if they represent a single high placed finish against a season of mediocrity. You will not be able to say how much better, by looking at or recalculating the points in that case, even adjusting for the obvious.

I suggest a read over the 2010-2012 Rosberg/Schumacher thread to see exactly how far the points arguments can go, and it's a good example actually with (broadly) Rosberg 'winning' 2010, reasonable equality in 2011 (despite the points) and Schumacher edging it in 2012 despite the Rosberg win.

Just as a final nod to the topic; a WDC requires more consistency of performance that the Mercedes team has been capable of providing in the last three seasons, regardless of the quality of the drivers.

#189 Grundle

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 17:01

Most teams got to grips with the tires. Mercedes, on the other hand, slid back like a guy with sandals trying to climb a muddy hill. I remember Mercedes saying all year long, "We think we've understood the tire situation now." But come raceday, sure enough, it became quickly apparent that for whatever they think they learned, they certainly didn't know how to fix it. This is just another in a long line of events pointing to the team having a lackluster ability to comprehend issues and resolve them.

The problem was the inter-linked suspension. It was too complex, and couldn't be easily adjusted to suit unpredictable tyres. Nevertheless, I'm sure there are many other reasons why Mercedes will fail next year.

#190 Puhoon

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 17:11

Posted Image

#191 PretentiousBread

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 19:30

No it's not because some of the reasons for the points loss are not possible to evaluate unless you're part of the team. To what extent are gearbox failures down to the driver? When they fly off a kerb, the engines rev wildly so how much of the driving style affects that? Is a sharp turn-in which creates a shorter but higher moment of stress worse than a lower force applied for longer? Over what period? How much experience does the engineering team need to properly understand and correct for a car which will understeer on one corner but oversteer on the next, and do they have this?

I simply do not accept that Button is, under any circumstances, 1.5 seconds slower over a lap than Hamilton purely as a function of their skill.
Hamilton went out of his way at Monza to try and demonstrate how one decision went wrong for him and we have no idea to what extent similar decisions made at other times were detrimental to one or both.

Counting up all the perceived wrongs means that you have missed all those you cannot see or quantify in any meaningful way however many or few there were. The flaws in the fictional universe are far too great and unknown in what we all know is an incredibly technical sport with fine tolerances.

What these lists are trying to do is create an absolute number where none can exist, for the purposes of simplifying the argument. It's for those who prefer to glance at the number of stars a movie review gives, rather than read the text, and F1 is too complex for that sort of simplicity.

Brawn and Hamilton have both said that they have made 2014 their focus, which means in 2013 Lewis is going to suffer a lot of highs and lows, not all of which will be immediately obvious to the casual observer. If the car is the 4th or 5th best, and the drivers are chasing one or two points per race, the possibility exists for one of these drivers to have more than double the points of the other even though they finish one behind the other. That would not make one of them twice as good, and maybe not even make the one with most points better, if they represent a single high placed finish against a season of mediocrity. You will not be able to say how much better, by looking at or recalculating the points in that case, even adjusting for the obvious.

I suggest a read over the 2010-2012 Rosberg/Schumacher thread to see exactly how far the points arguments can go, and it's a good example actually with (broadly) Rosberg 'winning' 2010, reasonable equality in 2011 (despite the points) and Schumacher edging it in 2012 despite the Rosberg win.

Just as a final nod to the topic; a WDC requires more consistency of performance that the Mercedes team has been capable of providing in the last three seasons, regardless of the quality of the drivers.


That makes no sense to me, because you're ignoring the far greater likelihood that it's a simple component failure on the car in its entirety because of a small possibility that it was driver related. We can make reasonable assumptions, and besides, it's frankly a lame argument to use in the first place - it's the driver's responsibility to drive as fast as is possible within the known tolerances of the car, it's the team's responsibility to manufacture a reliable car and to monitor its tolerances. If with their reams of telemetry and hundreds of man hours of analysis they're still not able to pinpoint why a car is breaking down, then how the hell is the driver expected to know, and how can he subsequently take the blame for it?

Who's saying Hamilton is 1.5s faster than Button on merit? And what relevance does that have?

The fictional points lists aren't trying to fix an absolute number, they're there to illustrate how differently the season could have played out, the precise figure is incidental. People take them much too literally, like we're denying history. Maybe it'd be less offensive if we just listed all the instances of misfortune that happened to each driver and what positions they were running in before said misfortunes?

Edited by PretentiousBread, 10 January 2013 - 19:30.


#192 undersquare

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 19:32

IMO I have to disagree and say Hamilton lost more than 100 points, I've included all his incidents, and what I think he would have got but for factors out of his control.

Aus: Safety car - 3 points

China (gearbox penalty from 2nd to 7th: 3/10 depending on whether you thought he could have won.)

Spain disqualification: 21

Valencia: Maldonaldo- 15/12 depending on if you thought he could have hold off Maldonaldo

Germany: Puncture- 12/15 (probably wouldn't have beaten Button but would have been right behind him with the pace of the McLaren, and would have gained a place after Vettel's penalty.

Spa: Grosjean- 4/ upwards, depending on where he would have finished, I'm unable to call where I think he would have finished.

Singapore: gearbox failure - 25

Japan 15 (conservative estimate, but considering he finished fourth with a broken rear damper that lasted throughout qualifying and the race) saying at least third is quite fair.

Korea: 15: Qualified third with broken rear suspension, Lost a place to Alonso but was gaining on him until the failure became worse, considering Massa caught up to Alonso and was asked to slow down this appears a good estimate.

Abu Dhabi: 25 - fuel pickup problem

Brasil:25 - Hulkenberg.

MInimum estimate: 160 points lost
Maximum estimate: 173 +

This of course doesn't include how many points Vettel gained thanks to Hamilton's problems and vice versa.

Stunning total, thanks. This is without the pitstops too. There are points that others lost with bad luck too but conversely points SV gained as you say.

Lewis would be going to Mercedes as a 2x wdc and the easy winner of 2012. How would his chances be looking?

I think a lot of people would be rating them higher than they are.

Relatively stable rules, so the cars ought to be closing up....


#193 PretentiousBread

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 19:34

Stunning total, thanks. This is without the pitstops too. There are points that others lost with bad luck too but conversely points SV gained as you say.

Lewis would be going to Mercedes as a 2x wdc and the easy winner of 2012. How would his chances be looking?

I think a lot of people would be rating them higher than they are.

Relatively stable rules, so the cars ought to be closing up....


Let's be consistent, he wouldn't have won in 2008 without Ferrari cockups.

#194 undersquare

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 19:45

Let's be consistent, he wouldn't have won in 2008 without Ferrari cockups.

It's a matter of scale.

edit: not to mention Allan Donnelly...

Edited by undersquare, 10 January 2013 - 19:53.


#195 BernieEc

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 20:41

Let's be consistent, he wouldn't have won in 2008 without Ferrari cockups.


and to further stretch the consistency, he could have won in 2007 f not Fred

#196 Timstr11

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 20:53

Most teams got to grips with the tires. Mercedes, on the other hand, slid back like a guy with sandals trying to climb a muddy hill. I remember Mercedes saying all year long, "We think we've understood the tire situation now." But come raceday, sure enough, it became quickly apparent that for whatever they think they learned, they certainly didn't know how to fix it. This is just another in a long line of events pointing to the team having a lackluster ability to comprehend issues and resolve them.

Tyres don't work in isolation.
They did understand the tyres, but a lack of rear downforce, the coanda overheating the rear tyres and the fric suspension did not allow them to keep the tyres alive as long as others.

Edited by Timstr11, 10 January 2013 - 22:26.


#197 alframsey

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 22:21

No way is Lewis going to win the title in 2013, I don't think he will win one while at Merc which causes me great distress, we are getting far too optimistic here!

#198 The Kanisteri

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Posted 11 January 2013 - 06:47

Nico Rosberg and Michael Schumacher failed to impres much in past couple years. Pole position and one victory in 2012 told us tale there is potential in car when everything is spot on.

Lewis Hamilton is not miracle man. If car is dud, Nico and Lewis will compete with midfield results again Nico having slight edge over Lewis due experience of team, car and such.

Unles Mercedes suddenly discovers something awesome, BOTH Nico and Lewis can say WDC/WCC hunt goodbye.

#199 slmk

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Posted 11 January 2013 - 10:46

Let's be consistent, he wouldn't have won in 2008 without Ferrari cockups.


Disagree. Ferrari did not make mistakes, Massa did. His driving was too erratic at times - Lewis made some mistakes but they were more as a result of red mist than actually poor driving. Yes, Massa suffered some mechanical DNFs but in the grand scheme of things, poor driving at the start of the season and during the European legs dogged him. Further, harsh treatment towards HAM (Spa, Fuji) has to be taken into account as well.

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#200 JRizzle86

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Posted 11 January 2013 - 10:54

What has Mercs problems got to do with Mac?


Nothing