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What are Lewis's chances of winning 2013 WDC? [split]


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#251 slmk

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 03:38

Well i can spontaneously remember, that Alonso made virtually no crucial mistake in 2006. The same goes for Schumacher in 2000 (Hockenheim might be debatable, but imho Fisichella was responsible for their collision).

And there are also enough examples of hard-fought seasons, in which the protagonist may admittedly haven´t been completely faultless, but still made way less mistakes than, what we could witness in 2008. I´ve really trouble to think of a season, in which the main contenders made more mistakes than in 2008.


Easy to do so when you only have to worry about 1 car out of 22 (ie. MSC). Renault and Ferrari were by far the best cars that year, especially Renault (consistent all season long).

2008 was a 3 or 4-way fight for a while. Same for 2007 and 2010.


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#252 moorsey

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 09:34

In that article Marko held Vettel up as a driver who thrives under pressure. I would agree with that.


What, exactly would you expect Marko to say? "No he's rubbish really but the car carries him through"????? :stoned:

#253 Kvothe

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 10:29

In that article Marko held Vettel up as a driver who thrives under pressure. I would agree with that.



All drivers to some extent are under pressure, and if they're doing a great job, than by definition they are thriving. You however have specifically referred to the pressure of competing for the WDC, and while you're in agreement with Marko, I personally think we've yet to see it.

2010: Came from behind, and wasn't even expected to win the championship, actually requested not to be told until the end whether he was in the position to win it.

2011: Had the fastest car, and won the WDC by Suzuka, did an excellent job and maximised the equipment at his disposal, but yet again there was very little pressure applied by other competitiors.

2012: in the last race, dismal qualifying session and was outqualified by his team mate, tentative start which lost him places, and than turned in too early into turn 4 sending him spinning to the back, only when he had nothing to lose did he suddenly turn it on putting in an great drive with a damaged car, but yet again not great evidence of him thriving under pressure either in fact quite the opposite.

I'm sure a similar list could be drawn up for Alonso, or Schumacher who famously made mistakes under pressure in the last race both in 1994, and 1997 when competing for the WDC, examples which I would more readily consider as cracking under pressure (if I were so inclined) than anything Hamilton had done.

Your argument is held up by the thinnest of straws, you're happy to mention 2007, but conveniently downplay or ignore the role both team strategy and a faulty gearbox played in the loss of his WDC, instead choosing to blame the driver, with some great examples of plucking fiction out of your imagination debunking actual facts. You ignore the special conditions of Brazil 2008 (the wet weather, McLaren playing it safe with a low downforce package), or the fact that Hamilton's errors were spread out throughout the season suggesting more a lack of consistency than anything WDC pressure related. In 2010 you'll bring up Monza, but not mention the fact that both Alonso and Vettel crashed out the race before in Spa, or explain why an error in the 13th race of a 19 race season not the 12th is suddenly indicative of cracking under pressure? All in all one can't help look at the blinkered arguments you present, your unwillingness to acknowledge information that contradicts your own, and your past posts on Lewis Hamilton, and think your argument is clearly very agenda driven, and ultimately discreditable.

Edited.

Edited by Kvothe, 14 January 2013 - 10:34.


#254 robefc

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 14:21

Brazil 07 is a very good example of where the pressure did get to him I would say. It was the championship deciding race where everything was on the line and in the span of the first five laps Hamilton had put the car off the track twice, once at the start and then again behind Heidfeld.

And you may be absolutely correct that Lewis's mistakes are evenly distributed throughout the season. But this is not the point that I am making. In these situations (wdc title runs) you need perform under pressure and this means that you make fewer if not no mistakes when the pressure builds. That's what I mean by saying he hasn't been that money guy. To be that guy you need to drive better and make no mistakes when it matters in the big races at the end of the season.

Webber was called out for this just last week by Marko, " Webber struggles with title pressure ". Imo Hamilton struggles a bit with this as well.


I wouldn't disagree that there are others I would bet my house on to be flawless under pressure in the last couple of rounds of the season nor that it got to lewis in 2007 to a certain extent. I just think the point is often completely overblown though because he doesn't make more mistakes near the end of the season compared to any other time of the season as far as I can see. Claiming that he needs to perform better under pressure than when not under pressure is a different assertion to saying he performs worse under pressure (or the pressure gets to him).

I think Lewis can be mentally fallible but I think it is often other factors that get to him. Was Fuji 2008 down to title pressure or the red mist at unexpectedly being overtaken by kimi? I would say that's equally an example of lewis not playing the long game, just like valencia this year, rather than just because the pressure was ramping up. Same situation being overtaken by the ferraris and alonso in brazil 2007, he didn't think camly and strategically - now tell me, is that something you would only assocaite with lewis at the end of a season or a more constant chink in his armour?

To back up their point some people laughably try to claim monza 2010 was 'towards the end of the season' when quite clearly he lost his head a bit again in response to his teammate out qualifying him with a different set up, just as he did when tweeting telemetry in Spa this year.

The common denominator in these instances and others is not pressure at the end of the season.

Edited by robefc, 14 January 2013 - 14:22.


#255 Burtros

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 15:13

Hamiltons class should see him win a race of two this year.

But this move is clearly about the long game. I dont think theres a cat in hells chance of him fighting for title this year unless he can do what Alonso did last year and slightly more.

Its about 2014 and 2015 this one. Going to be interesting if you ask me - Brawns not the magician he is made out to be because people have quickly forgotten just how unique 2009 circumstances were. Assuming the same will happen again at the next reg change is somewhat naieve in my view.

#256 halifaxf1fan

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 23:58

The odds right now are as follows:

2013 Drivers' Championship

Sebastian Vettel 5/4, Fernando Alonso 5/2, Jenson Button 7/1, Kimi Raikkonen 11/1,
Lewis Hamilton 12/1, Sergio Perez 16/1, Mark Webber 16/1, Nico Rosberg 40/1,
Felipe Massa 50/1, Romain Grosjean 50/1, Nico Hulkenberg 80/1, Pastor Maldonado 100/1,
Valtteri Bottas 100/1, Paul di Resta 100/1, Esteban Gutierrez 150/1, Jean Eric Vergne 200/1,
Daniel Ricciardo 200/1


That's 3 1/2 times more likely than his teammate Nico.

http://www.skybet.com/formula-1



Checking the odds after the first round of testing :

Tuesday 19th February 2013
2013 Drivers' Championship - Drivers Championship

Sebastian Vettel 11/8 Fernando Alonso 11/4 Jenson Button 5/1 Kimi Raikkonen 11/1
Sergio Perez 14/1 Lewis Hamilton 14/1 Mark Webber 18/1 Felipe Massa 40/1
Nico Rosberg 50/1 Romain Grosjean 50/1 Nico Hulkenberg 125/1 Paul di Resta 125/1
Valtteri Bottas 150/1 Pastor Maldonado 150/1 Esteban Gutierrez 250/1 Jean Eric Vergne 500/1
Daniel Ricciardo 500/1 –

Both Lewis and Nico have dropped a bit to 14/1 and 50/1 respectively. Sergio moved up but Hamilton is still in the top six.

#257 weareracing

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Posted 14 February 2013 - 00:19

NOT because of his awesome driving talent, but more a reflection of the CARS capability I think Lewis (and Nico for that matter) have 3 chances for the 2013 World Drivers Championship title.
SLIM, DOGS, and NO.
Sorry :(

#258 Wander

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Posted 14 February 2013 - 00:40

He has a higher chance than I do, but not by much.

#259 Mendel

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Posted 14 February 2013 - 02:04

Williams is massively under appreciated there due to them testing with their old package. I´ll make a small bet on Bottas. I wouldn´t think Valtteri is actually any less likely to win than either Nico

Edited by Mendel, 14 February 2013 - 02:05.


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#260 Bruce

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Posted 14 February 2013 - 03:29

Lewis is likely to have a tough time this year. Mercedes make a good engine, but they've a lot to sort on the aerodynamic front and the knock on effect here is on tyres, which the Mercedes was brutal with last year. If it was easy to fix it already would be.

I'm not saying that it will be a disaster of a year fro Lewis, but I do expect him to be looking at the McLarens with a great deal of envy and mixed feelings by the 2nd or 3rd race...

#261 packapoo

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Posted 14 February 2013 - 04:35

Addressing the topic...........Snowballs.

#262 ChiltonsCats

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Posted 14 February 2013 - 05:04

I expect him to be around 4th-8th in most races realistically, with one or two outlying results like the odd podium (hopefully anyway) or DNF/outside top 10

#263 Jimisgod

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Posted 14 February 2013 - 06:22

Mercedes is in ascendency, McLaren will be waning - but no there is very little chance for a Lewis WDC. He might pick up the odd win or two but no more. I think Lewis sees it as a growing year, the car will take a year or two (to make the most of 2014 changes). However he can use this year to get a really slick pit lane team and strategist going at the Silver Star with the pressure (relatively) off them.

Seano


That is quite a statement.

Lewis is lucky in that the midfield will be depleted compared to last year. FI seems to be moneyless and digging for the least talented of paydrivers, and you have a number of rookies. I only rate Hulkenberg as a regular threat. But breaking the top 4 teams... Grosjean is no issue, Webber and Massa will be typically weak and inconsistent.

Kimi, Alonso, Vettel, Button? Not so much. Rosberg and Perez are unknowns.

Best possible I can see is 4th (Alonso + Vettel + 1 McLaren driver, ahead)

#264 Treads

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Posted 14 February 2013 - 07:06

Brazil 07 is a very good example of where the pressure did get to him I would say. It was the championship deciding race where everything was on the line and in the span of the first five laps Hamilton had put the car off the track twice, once at the start and then again behind Heidfeld.

Posted Image

And you may be absolutely correct that Lewis's mistakes are evenly distributed throughout the season. But this is not the point that I am making. In these situations (wdc title runs) you need perform under pressure and this means that you make fewer if not no mistakes when the pressure builds. That's what I mean by saying he hasn't been that money guy. To be that guy you need to drive better or even make no mistakes when it matters in the big races at the end of the season.

Webber was called out for this just last week by Marko, " Webber struggles with title pressure ". Imo Hamilton struggles a bit with this as well.


You have given a very good example of where Ham caved to pressure. But this happened almost 6 years ago, going back to the guy's rookie season is nonsensical to prove he CURRENTLY struggles with pressure.


#265 klyster

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Posted 14 February 2013 - 08:40

I'd say Lewis's chance are pretty slim for the WDC, he should be used to that after the last couple of years...

Can't wait to see him try all the same!! I reckon he'll be on the podium a fair bit more than people would expect.

Edited by klyster, 14 February 2013 - 08:42.


#266 Mendel

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Posted 14 February 2013 - 09:19

my prediction: 7 podium finishes, 2 wins, 4th overall

#267 undersquare

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Posted 14 February 2013 - 09:44

Yeah I can see podiums, at least. Think back to 2009 and the Silver Donkey.

This year's car has Aldo Costa on the chassis and Mike Elliot on aero, so let's see. All to play for IMO.

#268 as65p

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Posted 14 February 2013 - 10:10

Yeah I can see podiums, at least. Think back to 2009 and the Silver Donkey.


Funny how the pressure thing is so easily discarded as a myth yet the bolded still propagated.

In reality, Hamilton didn't do much in 2009 as long as the car was indeed a donkey. In fact he blew his one chance to shine during that period with that silly error in Monaco qualifying. The results of 2009 only came after the car had been 'transformed' (Hamiltons own words) at the Nürburgring race.

#269 Masenco

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Posted 14 February 2013 - 11:02

I think his chances are decent, alonso and kimi were both challenging for the wdc last year just by being consistent and around the podium all the time. Its definitely possible, lets hope mercedes have built a car that, as lauda has claimed, can compete with the top 3- then its game on

#270 mlsnoopy

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Posted 14 February 2013 - 11:08

Funny how the pressure thing is so easily discarded as a myth yet the bolded still propagated.

In reality, Hamilton didn't do much in 2009 as long as the car was indeed a donkey. In fact he blew his one chance to shine during that period with that silly error in Monaco qualifying. The results of 2009 only came after the car had been 'transformed' (Hamiltons own words) at the Nürburgring race.


You mean like getting 3rd in australia, 6th in Maalaysia, 4th in Bahrain,......

#271 maverick69

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Posted 14 February 2013 - 11:11

Funny how the pressure thing is so easily discarded as a myth yet the bolded still propagated.

In reality, Hamilton didn't do much in 2009 as long as the car was indeed a donkey. In fact he blew his one chance to shine during that period with that silly error in Monaco qualifying. The results of 2009 only came after the car had been 'transformed' (Hamiltons own words) at the Nürburgring race.


Shame that FOM bloked this video highlighting his overtakes and defensive driving in 2009..... with ironically, most of it pre Nurburgring: http://www.youtube.c...bed/l6W9HS6PEHg

That would shut you well and truly up on this one........

Edited by maverick69, 14 February 2013 - 11:11.


#272 Jimisgod

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Posted 14 February 2013 - 11:23

You mean like getting 3rd in australia, 6th in Maalaysia, 4th in Bahrain,......


Let's not open that can of worms. :rotfl:


#273 Dzeidzei

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Posted 14 February 2013 - 11:36

Addressing the topic...........Snowballs.


Id second this. But it´ll be interesting to see how he handles the situation of not being in one of the top runners there. He´s had that luxury for all his carreer until now.

#274 maverick69

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Posted 14 February 2013 - 11:42

Id second this. But it´ll be interesting to see how he handles the situation of not being in one of the top runners there. He´s had that luxury for all his carreer until now.


What?

You mean like turning up at the first race with a car that was over 2 seconds off the pace, which was also blessed with a diffuser that helpfully stalled in medium to fast corners?

#275 Dzeidzei

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Posted 14 February 2013 - 11:55

What?


Lewis has driven for McLaren all his carreer. I consider them to be a top team.
One quality of a top team is that thay are able to sort things out (to which you referred to).

The last Brawn was incredible of the shelf. Merc with all that German mney has accomplished very little since. It´ll be interesting to see how Lewis reacts to that.

If things fail to happen for Merc this year people will think there´ s something fundamentally wrong with the Silver Arrow.

#276 jjcale

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Posted 14 February 2013 - 11:57

I think we can now sensibly address this as the first test is over... but even not it could still be premature to form a firm view.

IMO the Macca looks to be mighty and Redbull should be equally impressive. So JB is now the favourite for the WDC IMO with SV a close second ... as I rate JB above SV other things being equal.... and its looking like things may well be at least equal between them - at least at the start of the season.

Lotus and Ferrari are also looking good.... at best the Merc looks to be competitive with this second ground and even that is being a bit opitimistic.

But it looks like a close season is ahead of us and JB and SV will have points taken off them on any off days so we could have a 2010 type season finally .... and LH may well be in the mix.

I cant see wins at this point except for massive luck ... podiums also look difficult without a fair bit of luck.... which is a shame as the Merc is not a bad car ... its just that two of the others will propably be awesome.

This view is subject to reiview right up to the final test ... its still early days.

#277 jjcale

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Posted 14 February 2013 - 12:01

Shame that FOM bloked this video highlighting his overtakes and defensive driving in 2009..... with ironically, most of it pre Nurburgring: http://www.youtube.c...bed/l6W9HS6PEHg

That would shut you well and truly up on this one........


.... damn vids now been taken down

Edited by jjcale, 14 February 2013 - 12:19.


#278 gricey1981

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Posted 14 February 2013 - 12:17

You mean like getting 3rd in australia, 6th in Maalaysia, 4th in Bahrain,......



Exactly All these were great drives.

Right at the time Heikki was spinning off for no reason whatsoever.

#279 WitnessX

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Posted 14 February 2013 - 13:02

Shame that FOM bloked this video highlighting his overtakes and defensive driving in 2009..... with ironically, most of it pre Nurburgring: http://www.youtube.c...bed/l6W9HS6PEHg

That would shut you well and truly up on this one........

But this is not about the odd races or his overtaking abilities (..and I'm sure on that point having the KERS system did not exactly hinder him in 2009).

This is about the WDC which means consistent good results throughout the whole year.

http://www.crash.net...ap_in_2009.html
J. Neale:
..Based on our own experience, we know that we closed a 2.5 second-a-lap gap between the start of the season and Hungary last year..

In 2009 his results of the second half are 40 points more than the first half (old point system):
- Bad Aero => Bad Car => Bad points.
- Good Aero => Good Car => Good points.

With the quality of the car/driver competition this year, nobody can afford to have a bad car, operational or other problems. It's not just about the driver, it's about the whole package.

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#280 maverick69

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Posted 14 February 2013 - 13:06

But this is not about the odd races or his overtaking abilities (..and I'm sure on that point having the KERS system did not exactly hinder him in 2009).

This is about the WDC which means consistent good results throughout the whole year.

http://www.crash.net...ap_in_2009.html
J. Neale:
..Based on our own experience, we know that we closed a 2.5 second-a-lap gap between the start of the season and Hungary last year..

In 2009 his results of the second half are 40 points more than the first half (old point system):
- Bad Aero => Bad Car => Bad points.
- Good Aero => Good Car => Good points.

With the quality of the car/driver competition this year, nobody can afford to have a bad car, operational or other problems. It's not just about the driver, it's about the whole package.


No.

The initial argument is that he did "nothing special" with a bad car.

And to reply to your point - it's pretty obvious that you will not be scoring the same volume of points you would with a good car..... so I don't really know what you are getting at.



#281 as65p

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Posted 14 February 2013 - 13:29

Shame that FOM bloked this video highlighting his overtakes and defensive driving in 2009..... with ironically, most of it pre Nurburgring: http://www.youtube.c...bed/l6W9HS6PEHg

That would shut you well and truly up on this one........


You should know better than to delude yourself like that!  ;)

Sure, qualifying well down the order, during the period in question even worse than Kova frequently, everything is set for some entertainment in midfield.

He still hasn't much to show for as long as the car was crap. Except for some decent showings on non-aero tracks, courtesy of the car being always mechanically solid, just lacking (massively) aerodynamically. And still his best chance he threw away in Monaco.

As to the original point, contrary to popular fan opinion there is not much past evidence so far to suggest Hamilton would deliver something out of the ordinary with a bad car.

#282 maverick69

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Posted 14 February 2013 - 13:40

You should know better than to delude yourself like that!;)

Sure, qualifying well down the order, during the period in question even worse than Kova frequently, everything is set for some entertainment in midfield.

He still hasn't much to show for as long as the car was crap. Except for some decent showings on non-aero tracks, courtesy of the car being always mechanically solid, just lacking (massively) aerodynamically. And still his best chance he threw away in Monaco.

As to the original point, contrary to popular fan opinion there is not much past evidence so far to suggest Hamilton would deliver something out of the ordinary with a bad car.


Yep. I'm deluded.

Just as deluded as the team bosses who voted him the 3rd most impressive driver of that year just behind Button and Vettel........ http://trickshift.co...by-team-bosses/

I'm sure they totally forgot/disregarded the season pre-Hungary..................

Edited by maverick69, 14 February 2013 - 18:02.


#283 WitnessX

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Posted 14 February 2013 - 14:15

No.

The initial argument is that he did "nothing special" with a bad car.

And to reply to your point - it's pretty obvious that you will not be scoring the same volume of points you would with a good car..... so I don't really know what you are getting at.

Title of thread is "What are Lewis's chances of winning 2013 WDC?", I assumed mentioning his ability to do special drives in "bad cars" were related to that or implying that he does not need a decent car to achieve that. Whatever his achievements are in a "bad car" are irrelevant because a bad car will not allow him to get the title.

He may have done special things in a "bad car", but whatever he did he didn't bring in the points on a consistent basis, His chances of the WDC are dependent on other factors and is directly related to the quality of the car and support he gets, and just as importantly, relative to the quality of car and support the other drivers get.

His chances? No idea, depends on how the car and team turn out - and thats the problem. He's certainly one of a number of drivers currently on the grid who have proven they can "bring it home" when given suitable equipment and support so there is no reason why he can't do it again. So I don't see him as a major stumbling block to the title. After all, its "motor"-racing and not a 100 meter dash.

#284 halifaxf1fan

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Posted 14 February 2013 - 15:07

I think we can now sensibly address this as the first test is over... but even not it could still be premature to form a firm view.

IMO the Macca looks to be mighty and Redbull should be equally impressive. So JB is now the favourite for the WDC IMO with SV a close second ... as I rate JB above SV other things being equal.... and its looking like things may well be at least equal between them - at least at the start of the season.

Lotus and Ferrari are also looking good.... at best the Merc looks to be competitive with this second ground and even that is being a bit opitimistic.

But it looks like a close season is ahead of us and JB and SV will have points taken off them on any off days so we could have a 2010 type season finally .... and LH may well be in the mix.

I cant see wins at this point except for massive luck ... podiums also look difficult without a fair bit of luck.... which is a shame as the Merc is not a bad car ... its just that two of the others will propably be awesome.

This view is subject to reiview right up to the final test ... its still early days.



Really? I've always thought that Button was seen as a good driver but not as top tier with Vettel, etc.

Here is what McLarens Geoff McGrath said last year of Vettel in comparison to his drivers:

McGrath added that beating qualifying master Sebastian Vettel will be crucial if McLaren is to be successful in 2012, particularly as its analysis indicated that the raw pace of last year's MP4-26 was superior towards the end of the season despite Red Bull and Vettel's run of poles.
"He must be a brilliant driver, because by the end of last season we definitely had the best car and he was still whupping us," McGrath said.
"We're trying to figure out exactly what he's doing that's so good. How does he pull out that fast qualifying lap every time? We think it's driver skill. There's no trickery on the cars, he just gets more out of it than we do."

http://uk.eurosport....-105004703.html

Everyone has their own viewpoint I suppose, it will be interesting to see how the driver battles play out in 2013 with the teammate changes.

Edited by halifaxf1fan, 14 February 2013 - 16:50.


#285 Rinehart

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Posted 14 February 2013 - 17:02

Really? I've always thought that Button was seen as a good driver but not as top tier with Vettel, etc.


I bet if JB had had SV's seat for the last 3 years and vice versa, the common view would be different!
He was also the last one to beat SV to the title.
Personally I think Hamilton's chances of winning the title are about 4th favourite behind Button, Vettel and Alonso.
I'd say he's as good a bet as Kimi. A lot of this rests in the chance of not only his car being good, as others NOT.

#286 Bruce

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Posted 14 February 2013 - 21:21

Title of thread is "What are Lewis's chances of winning 2013 WDC?", I assumed mentioning his ability to do special drives in "bad cars" were related to that or implying that he does not need a decent car to achieve that. Whatever his achievements are in a "bad car" are irrelevant because a bad car will not allow him to get the title.

He may have done special things in a "bad car", but whatever he did he didn't bring in the points on a consistent basis, His chances of the WDC are dependent on other factors and is directly related to the quality of the car and support he gets, and just as importantly, relative to the quality of car and support the other drivers get.

His chances? No idea, depends on how the car and team turn out - and thats the problem. He's certainly one of a number of drivers currently on the grid who have proven they can "bring it home" when given suitable equipment and support so there is no reason why he can't do it again. So I don't see him as a major stumbling block to the title. After all, its "motor"-racing and not a 100 meter dash.


Exactly.

I do, however think that we can make certain assumptions about the coming year. There haven't been any meaningful rules changes, and this tends to mitigate against teams making huge strides forward in the off season, so the likelihood is that LH (and NR) will be starting the season on their back foot, much in the same place as they were last year. For LH to win the WDC next year, I think he would need the "perfect storm" of results; He'd need;

1) The field to be very close and competitive so that the "favourites" (presumably the drivers in the McLarens, Red Bulls and Ferraris) take points off each other.
2) Almost perfect reliability to amass points consistently.
3) An unexpected turn of speed from the Mercedes in order for it to keep the top 3 cars within shouting distance.
4) A solution to Mercedes Tyre woes from last year.

I think 1 or 2 of the above are possible, but all four highly unlikely.

We can only formulate opinions based upon the car's past record, and I think it suggest that Lewis will be likely to finish the year around 8th, with around 100 points, a couple of podiums and no wins. I wouldn't bet my mortgage on that, but let's see...

A win is possible, but multiple wins will be incredibly difficult and a WDC nearly impossible.

(edited for spelling)

Edited by Bruce, 14 February 2013 - 21:22.


#287 TF110

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Posted 15 February 2013 - 09:31

I agree. And with other teams looking strong, like Sauber, Hamilton might be a catalyst in his own right to put his car up in places where he could steal away finishes that result in good points hauls. Kimi won exactly one race last season and finished 3rd. The point is, he always scored! If Mercedes has a reliable car and they can repeat the 'best results' they had (Shanghai win and almost Monaco) they could be right in the position with Hamilton and even Nico that Kimi was in. But it will take the other contenders fighting amongst themselves and a couple of unlucky breaks for them.

Edited by TF110, 15 February 2013 - 09:32.


#288 Velocifer

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Posted 15 February 2013 - 23:54

If we see Button cruising to another WDC, I expect another Lewis meltdown - with Rosberg able to capitalise.

I think he must have gotten that type of frustration out of his system in 2011. Having kept it together while Vettel gets WDC number 3, I doubt he would be too worried about Button. There would be a meltdown on here, though.

Kept it together? He threw the toys out of the pram is what he did, where have you been?

#289 Disgrace

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Posted 15 February 2013 - 23:57

I hope his WDC chances are high, it's would be more fun. Nothing could be worse than him being wasted and forgotten in the midfield a la JV.

Edited by Disgrace, 15 February 2013 - 23:57.


#290 Bruce

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 00:11

I hope his WDC chances are high, it's would be more fun. Nothing could be worse than him being wasted and forgotten in the midfield a la JV.


I agree. It was sad what happened to JV - his own fault, but sad nonetheless.

The good news for hamilton though, is that I think it unlikely that the Mercedes team will be quite as dire as BAR were...

#291 Disgrace

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 00:19

True, but there is a lot more happening at the front of the grid nowadays, so it doesn't take such dire performance to be just a non-factor in the races.

#292 Bruce

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 00:36

True, but there is a lot more happening at the front of the grid nowadays, so it doesn't take such dire performance to be just a non-factor in the races.


Yeah - good point.

We'll know in a couple of months.

Still - Mercedes lured Hamilton with promises of a great 2014... so this year will be a year of no expectation. He can weather that. If Mercedes can't get it together for 2014 than he'll have to react fast if he doesn't want to slip down the slippery slope of mediocrity...

#293 Bruce

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 00:37

Did Abraham Lincoln REALLY say that????

:)

#294 study

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 01:12

Really? I've always thought that Button was seen as a good driver but not as top tier with Vettel, etc.

Here is what McLarens Geoff McGrath said last year of Vettel in comparison to his drivers:

McGrath added that beating qualifying master Sebastian Vettel will be crucial if McLaren is to be successful in 2012, particularly as its analysis indicated that the raw pace of last year's MP4-26 was superior towards the end of the season despite Red Bull and Vettel's run of poles.
"He must be a brilliant driver, because by the end of last season we definitely had the best car and he was still whupping us," McGrath said.
"We're trying to figure out exactly what he's doing that's so good. How does he pull out that fast qualifying lap every time? We think it's driver skill. There's no trickery on the cars, he just gets more out of it than we do."

http://uk.eurosport....-105004703.html

Everyone has their own viewpoint I suppose, it will be interesting to see how the driver battles play out in 2013 with the teammate changes.


Why do you keep dragging this devalued snippet up, the person isn't even anything to do with McLaren racing.

#295 halifaxf1fan

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 03:10

Why do you keep dragging this devalued snippet up, the person isn't even anything to do with McLaren racing.


From what he said it is clear that he was involved in an effort by McLaren to analyze Vettel's driving techniques, focused on his qually laps:

"We're trying to figure out exactly what he's doing that's so good. How does he pull out that fast qualifying lap every time?

Their answer, according to Mr. McGrath, was simply driver skill.

Being at the Managing Director level with McLaren his findings should be valued I would think.

Edited by halifaxf1fan, 16 February 2013 - 16:37.


#296 bourbon

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 04:32

I bet if JB had had SV's seat for the last 3 years and vice versa, the common view would be different!


Yeah, but the difference would be: "It's about time McLaren won a title...good job boys!"

He was also the last one to beat SV to the title.


I don't see how that is relevant.

Personally I think Hamilton's chances of winning the title are about 4th favourite behind Button, Vettel and Alonso. I'd say he's as good a bet as Kimi. A lot of this rests in the chance of not only his car being good, as others NOT.


It is always car + driver. For Hamilton to come 4th, Merc will have to dramatically up their performance from last season. Never say never, but I think it is tough because even if there is improvement, other teams will be seeking the same...

Edited by bourbon, 16 February 2013 - 04:35.


#297 Bruce

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 05:08

A lot of this rests in the chance of not only his car being good, as others NOT.


You could say that of any driver...


#298 gillesthegenius

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 09:03

It looks like he has already won the one title - The Suzuki Liana World Championship - that matters the most. So Im wondering whether he will, god willing, be focussed enough to win the less important 2013 F1 WDC, given that he probably knows that he can, god willing, go to bed on 31/12/13 knowing that he is the worthiest champion of them all, regarless of who wins this years f1 WDC. :D

On a more serious note, I wouldnt write off the new super team that Merc have put together for this season, although I feel that most of their focus will be on, god willing, mounting a strong challenge for the 2014 title.

Edited by gillesthegenius, 16 February 2013 - 09:22.


#299 undersquare

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 09:34

On a more serious note, I wouldnt write off the new super team that Merc have put together for this season, although I feel that most of their focus will be on, god willing, mounting a strong challenge for the 2014 title.

To win in 2014 they need to have their processes sorted out and working in 2013 as well: the windtunnel, aero dept, race strategy, reliability, development... - the things to stop them floundering about with unsolved problems all year as they have done in previous seasons.

So the question is whether Aldo Costa/Mike Elliot & co are going to make the difference. Surely if they are, we'll see it this year.

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#300 DutchQuicksilver

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 11:45

We've all seen what Lewis can do in a car that's not the fastest back in 2009. He managed to finish 5th in a season where only the top 8 scored points in a race, he could have even won the championship if the car hadn't struggled for so long. Mercedes' car is looking okay, I think it can challenge the top three and keep Lotus behind in the end. Lewis can surprise quite a few this season and I reckon he's got a good shot at finishin top 5 in the championship. I can see him taking on the Raikkonen role from last year. Scoring good points at every race and sneaking into a high position in the championship.