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What are Lewis's chances of winning 2013 WDC? [split]


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#301 as65p

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 12:00

I wonder at what point "he's not competing with Rosberg, he's only aiming for the championhsip" will be heard for the first time next season.

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#302 garoidb

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 12:03

We've all seen what Lewis can do in a car that's not the fastest back in 2009. He managed to finish 5th in a season where only the top 8 scored points in a race, he could have even won the championship if the car hadn't struggled for so long. Mercedes' car is looking okay, I think it can challenge the top three and keep Lotus behind in the end. Lewis can surprise quite a few this season and I reckon he's got a good shot at finishin top 5 in the championship. I can see him taking on the Raikkonen role from last year. Scoring good points at every race and sneaking into a high position in the championship.


That is highly, in fact completely, dependent on reliability, which Mercedes did not have last year of course.

#303 Juggles

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 14:03

I wonder at what point "he's not competing with Rosberg, he's only aiming for the championhsip" will be heard for the first time next season.


As long as it's not "he's not competing with Rosberg, he's only aiming for points" I don't mind.

#304 as65p

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 18:31

As long as it's not "he's not competing with Rosberg, he's only aiming for points" I don't mind.


:D I see what you mean.

#305 britishtrident

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 13:15

Lewis ain't going to win a WDC with the German team it saddens me but they are heading for another mediocre season I would not be surprised if Mercedes will call it quits at the end of 2013 and that would be a great shame.

I do think Mercedes with the combination of Lewis and Nico in the 2013 will do better than they did in Schumacher’s sorjon but Mercedes are in deep trouble the upper management have their knickers in a twist in a effort to save face they are throwing money around and are not supporting Ross and have used Norbert as a scapegoat. A top heavy management structure will only lead to internal feuds and loss of direction. I see parallels with boardrooms wars inside BMW when the owned Rover, BMW got very badly hurt financially and Rover got crushed.

Rosberg's most recent comment reminds me of Corporal Jones in the BBC comedy Dads Army shouting "Don't Panic ! Don't Panic !!! Don't Panic !!!!!!!!!!!!!!.

#306 study

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 13:50

BMW got very badly hurt financially and Rover got crushed.

Rosberg's most recent comment reminds me of Corporal Jones in the BBC comedy Dads Army shouting "Don't Panic ! Don't Panic !!! Don't Panic !!!!!!!!!!!!!!.


Actually BMW came off quite well out of it, they cherry picked what they wanted and sold off what they didn't for a good price/

#307 ApexMouse

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 14:24

Seven.

#308 WitnessX

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 14:53

From what he said it is clear that he was involved in an effort by McLaren to analyze Vettel's driving techniques, focused on his qually laps:

"We're trying to figure out exactly what he's doing that's so good. How does he pull out that fast qualifying lap every time?

Their answer, according to Mr. McGrath, was simply driver skill.

Being at the Managing Director level with McLaren his findings should be valued I would think.

But did McGrath actually say that anyway?

Nothing is clear. The source of the story is an article that "briefly" appeared in Autosport (it was very quickly retracted) in January 2012 and since then it was not confirmed by any other source it's more than likely to have been a fake. The link you gave refers back to the Autosport article.

It did not make any sense anyway as it was referring to Vettels qualifying results in 2011. Look at 2012, and it soon becomes apparent how much the driver is dependent on the car.

Edited by WitnessX, 17 February 2013 - 14:57.


#309 halifaxf1fan

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Posted 05 March 2013 - 20:26

Checking the odds after the first round of testing :

Tuesday 19th February 2013
2013 Drivers' Championship - Drivers Championship

Sebastian Vettel 11/8 Fernando Alonso 11/4 Jenson Button 5/1 Kimi Raikkonen 11/1
Sergio Perez 14/1 Lewis Hamilton 14/1 Mark Webber 18/1 Felipe Massa 40/1
Nico Rosberg 50/1 Romain Grosjean 50/1 Nico Hulkenberg 125/1 Paul di Resta 125/1
Valtteri Bottas 150/1 Pastor Maldonado 150/1 Esteban Gutierrez 250/1 Jean Eric Vergne 500/1
Daniel Ricciardo 500/1 –

Both Lewis and Nico have dropped a bit to 14/1 and 50/1 respectively. Sergio moved up but Hamilton is still in the top six.



With testing now fully completed the odds leading in to Melbourne are:

Sunday 17th March 2013
2013 Drivers' Championship - Drivers Championship

Sebastian Vettel 6/4
Fernando Alonso 3/1
Jenson Button 6/1
Lewis Hamilton 7/1
Kimi Raikkonen 12/1
Sergio Perez 14/1
Mark Webber 18/1
Nico Rosberg 33/1
Felipe Massa 40/1
Romain Grosjean 40/1

Pastor Maldonado 200/1
Valtteri Bottas 200/1
Nico Hulkenberg 200/1
Adrian Sutil 250/1
Paul di Resta 250/1
Esteban Gutierrez 500/1
Daniel Ricciardo 1500/1
Jean Eric Vergne 1500/1
Max Chilton 3000/1
Giedo van der Garde 3000/1
Charles Pic 3000/1
Jules Bianchi 3000/1

Hamilton has improved to 7/1 odds of winning and is now the fourth favourite. Nico has improved as well but only slightly with Hamilton almost five times more likely to win the WDC than him.

http://www.skybet.co...a-1-2013-season

Edited by halifaxf1fan, 05 March 2013 - 20:31.


#310 Markn93

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Posted 05 March 2013 - 20:32

With testing now fully completed the odds leading in to Melbourne are:

Sunday 17th March 2013
2013 Drivers' Championship - Drivers Championship Your stake is doubled for an each-way bet with half going on the selection to win and half on it to place. Read the full explanation here

Sebastian Vettel 6/4
Fernando Alonso 3/1
Jenson Button 6/1
Lewis Hamilton 7/1
Kimi Raikkonen 12/1
Sergio Perez 14/1
Mark Webber 18/1
Nico Rosberg 33/1
Felipe Massa 40/1
Romain Grosjean 40/1

Pastor Maldonado 200/1
Valtteri Bottas 200/1
Nico Hulkenberg 200/1
Adrian Sutil 250/1
Paul di Resta 250/1
Esteban Gutierrez 500/1
Daniel Ricciardo 1500/1
Jean Eric Vergne 1500/1
Max Chilton 3000/1
Giedo van der Garde 3000/1
Charles Pic 3000/1
Jules Bianchi 3000/1

Hamilton has now improved to 7/1 odds of winning and is now the fourth favourite. Nico has improved as well but only slightly with Hamilton almost five times more likely to win the WDC than him.

http://www.skybet.co...a-1-2013-season

That's not how odds setting works, purely because it is not as simple as that. It's also based on where they think money is going to come in from and clearly they expect a fair bit on Lewis. The point is should he win and have the same odds as Nico they'd lose alot more than with the current odds. The worse odds could simply be to entice people to bet on Nico. I bet German bookies have different odds for eg.

Edited by Markn93, 05 March 2013 - 20:34.


#311 jjcale

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Posted 05 March 2013 - 21:16

Brawn were making the same kind of noises about their car in the winter of 2008 that Merc are making today .... it could be more BS but we have to wait and see.

I remember even Honda fans were having a go at me back then for saying that the car would good back in december 2008 ... they were not even sure of being on the grid back then - but they knew they had a good car. Similar noises are coming out of Brackley this winter.... it could be BS - but I am prepared to suspend assumptions until the first test.


:smoking:

#312 trogggy

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Posted 05 March 2013 - 21:27

:smoking:

Premature emotication.

#313 jjcale

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Posted 05 March 2013 - 22:12

Premature emotication.

:lol:

#314 Hairy

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Posted 05 March 2013 - 22:35

I bet if JB had had SV's seat for the last 3 years and vice versa, the common view would be different!
He was also the last one to beat SV to the title.
Personally I think Hamilton's chances of winning the title are about 4th favourite behind Button, Vettel and Alonso.
I'd say he's as good a bet as Kimi. A lot of this rests in the chance of not only his car being good, as others NOT.


I think if you listen to the other drivers, they rate Hamilton as being one of the only drivers capable of winning in a car that isn't the best on the grid, I remember Button and Ted saying this.

If you genuinely think Hamilton is mid pack, in his skill set, than F1 aint your game...

#315 NoDivergence

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Posted 05 March 2013 - 23:12

I think if you listen to the other drivers, they rate Hamilton as being one of the only drivers capable of winning in a car that isn't the best on the grid, I remember Button and Ted saying this.

If you genuinely think Hamilton is mid pack, in his skill set, than F1 aint your game...


Midpack? Hell no.

#316 rhukkas

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Posted 05 March 2013 - 23:13

If people seriously think Hamilton has a championship winning car they need to go see their doctor.

#317 Masenco

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Posted 05 March 2013 - 23:31

If people seriously think Hamilton has a championship winning car they need to go see their doctor.


Keeping in mind that a car thats not the outright fastest can win a championship, and that we obviously havent seen everyone's true pace yet, I think it has potential to be a championship winning car

#318 mattferg

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Posted 05 March 2013 - 23:48

We've all seen what Lewis can do in a car that's not the fastest back in 2009. He managed to finish 5th in a season where only the top 8 scored points in a race, he could have even won the championship if the car hadn't struggled for so long. Mercedes' car is looking okay, I think it can challenge the top three and keep Lotus behind in the end. Lewis can surprise quite a few this season and I reckon he's got a good shot at finishin top 5 in the championship. I can see him taking on the Raikkonen role from last year. Scoring good points at every race and sneaking into a high position in the championship.


This has to be framed within a year where every team on the grid managed to score points, and the only driver who didn't with a full season was Nakajima.

I think if you listen to the other drivers, they rate Hamilton as being one of the only drivers capable of winning in a car that isn't the best on the grid, I remember Button and Ted saying this.

If you genuinely think Hamilton is mid pack, in his skill set, than F1 aint your game...


Yes, but they might say the same of Vettel or Alonso. Remember, the only driver this century who won the WDC in not the best car was Kimi in 2007. Hamilton and Alonso had the best car and lost it, and Hamilton nearly lost it in 2008 in the best car. He needs to feel comfortable and not under pressure.

Edited by mattferg, 05 March 2013 - 23:51.


#319 SR388

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Posted 05 March 2013 - 23:58

7/1

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#320 BernieEc

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Posted 06 March 2013 - 00:15

This has to be framed within a year where every team on the grid managed to score points, and the only driver who didn't with a full season was Nakajima.



Yes, but they might say the same of Vettel or Alonso. Remember, the only driver this century who won the WDC in not the best car was Kimi in 2007. Hamilton and Alonso had the best car and lost it, and Hamilton nearly lost it in 2008 in the best car. He needs to feel comfortable and not under pressure.


I thought the Ferrari was the better car in 2008.

#321 alframsey

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Posted 06 March 2013 - 00:18

People really are setting themselves up for one mighty fall here, myself included at one stage, if we are truly unbiased and honest though we cannot really feel the Merc will be good enough to beat RBR, McLaren and Ferrari can we? Or am I just being too cautious?

#322 mattferg

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Posted 06 March 2013 - 00:19

I thought the Ferrari was the better car in 2008.


Nahh, in my opinion the McLaren looked worse as Hamilton was under a lot of pressure from then year before, so he made mistakes, and tbh Heikki was rubbish. Overall Massa and Kimi were a stronger pairing, even though Hamilton is probably better than both.

#323 BernieEc

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Posted 06 March 2013 - 00:24

Nahh, in my opinion the McLaren looked worse as Hamilton was under a lot of pressure from then year before, so he made mistakes, and tbh Heikki was rubbish. Overall Massa and Kimi were a stronger pairing, even though Hamilton is probably better than both.


that's fine then with the caveat of your opinion.

#324 TF110

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Posted 06 March 2013 - 00:26

Hamilton lost 2007, as a rookie with a 2 time defending WDC as his teammate. And be honest, besides the 2009 season, Red Bull has had the car to beat in every year since. Take a look at his DNF count not of his doing (engine/mechanical failures) over the past 3 years. It saddens me to see one of, if not the fastest driver on the grid lose out because of the team's inability to give him a car that can finish the race. Hamilton can drive it home, but can the car deliver the goods on pace and reliability? That's going to be the big question this season.

#325 inca_roads

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Posted 06 March 2013 - 01:18

Yes, but they might say the same of Vettel or Alonso. Remember, the only driver this century who won the WDC in not the best car was Kimi in 2007. Hamilton and Alonso had the best car and lost it, and Hamilton nearly lost it in 2008 in the best car. He needs to feel comfortable and not under pressure.


Massa was relatively close to Alonso in 2007, and look at what's happened now they're in the same car. It doesn't add up that if he (FA) can thrash him in the same car, he'd only beat him by a much smaller margin in a better one, even taking in to account some variance in driver performance.

#326 mattferg

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Posted 06 March 2013 - 01:21

Massa was relatively close to Alonso in 2007, and look at what's happened now they're in the same car. It doesn't add up that if he (FA) can thrash him in the same car, he'd only beat him by a much smaller margin in a better one, even taking in to account some variance in driver performance.


Yes, but as I've said before on the forum, it's widely accepted that Massa before his accident was a much better driver than what he's shown in the past few years. However, his recent form in the last few races of 2012 suggest a hint of the old Massa, and perhaps this is why he matched Fernando roughly in the last few races, despite the Ferrari second driver disadvantage.


#327 bourbon

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Posted 06 March 2013 - 05:42

Hamilton lost 2007, as a rookie with a 2 time defending WDC as his teammate. And be honest, besides the 2009 season, Red Bull has had the car to beat in every year since. Take a look at his DNF count not of his doing (engine/mechanical failures) over the past 3 years. It saddens me to see one of, if not the fastest driver on the grid lose out because of the team's inability to give him a car that can finish the race. Hamilton can drive it home, but can the car deliver the goods on pace and reliability? That's going to be the big question this season.


You need a good package. Since the top teams all have top drivers, capable of winning the title, they just need a good car to complete the package. You can't win without a good car, enabling the best package. Look around, nobody is winning with the less than best package, which includes a good car.

People like to cast aspersions and focus on 'winning in the best car' but the truth is, the best combination (car + driver) always wins. And when you think of that "exception" just know, there are none.

#328 Juggles

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Posted 06 March 2013 - 07:15

You need a good package. Since the top teams all have top drivers, capable of winning the title, they just need a good car to complete the package. You can't win without a good car, enabling the best package. Look around, nobody is winning with the less than best package, which includes a good car.

People like to cast aspersions and focus on 'winning in the best car' but the truth is, the best combination (car + driver) always wins. And when you think of that "exception" just know, there are none.


I completely agree, albeit you should add "team" in there as the third factor to cover operational performance. It's easy to see how a driver who isn't as good as a rival could still beat him in the championship race thanks to the other factor of the two you mention. The problem lies in isolating driver performance from car performance which is impossible because during every moment of competition they are one and the same. However, that doesn't stop us from acknowledging that an inferior driver could win the championship given a better car.

#329 Hairy

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Posted 06 March 2013 - 08:48

Yes, but they might say the same of Vettel or Alonso. Remember, the only driver this century who won the WDC in not the best car was Kimi in 2007. Hamilton and Alonso had the best car and lost it, and Hamilton nearly lost it in 2008 in the best car. He needs to feel comfortable and not under pressure.


I don't think so. Alonso himself said he thinks Hamilton is the only driver to be capable of winning in an inferior car. I genuinely think he has a bit in his pocket over most current drivers, to be honest, and of pressure, I haven't seen him crack, quite the opposite actually; in 2012 he was completely at ease, and it was his best season, imo. 2008 he didn't make that many mistakes, given people who have been in F1 made plenty more in only their second year, if you remember. I have watched Hamilton since 2004 and he's an exceptional talent and I have seen on bad year from him, and been then, it wasn't that bad. The lad can drive, and drive under extreme pressure. A lot of stuff is going to come out in the wash over this coming season, and you'll understand the pressures he was under in 2012, in what I believe was his best season.

I expect a lot from him this year. I really expect if he has got a car 0.5 off the pace, he'll be there or there abouts.


#330 ZooL

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Posted 06 March 2013 - 09:23

Really? I've always thought that Button was seen as a good driver but not as top tier with Vettel, etc.

Here is what McLarens Geoff McGrath said last year of Vettel in comparison to his drivers:

McGrath added that beating qualifying master Sebastian Vettel will be crucial if McLaren is to be successful in 2012, particularly as its analysis indicated that the raw pace of last year's MP4-26 was superior towards the end of the season despite Red Bull and Vettel's run of poles.
"He must be a brilliant driver, because by the end of last season we definitely had the best car and he was still whupping us," McGrath said.
"We're trying to figure out exactly what he's doing that's so good. How does he pull out that fast qualifying lap every time? We think it's driver skill. There's no trickery on the cars, he just gets more out of it than we do."

http://uk.eurosport....-105004703.html

Everyone has their own viewpoint I suppose, it will be interesting to see how the driver battles play out in 2013 with the teammate changes.

I think McGrath was wrong as that was an old comment. Since then the trickery was found, the grid have learnt that RBR secret was the exhaust mapping (and flexy front wing to an extent). Once the mapping was gone Webber started looking better than Vettel until Newey came up with a plan B.
Also I'm sure Hamilton was on pole more times last year than Vettel which also contradicts McGrath's comments despite Vettel winning the WDC as he had a better package than McLaren's.
Hamilton has a very slim chance of winning 2013 with my biggest issue being the reliability and not necessarily the speed.

#331 JustinD

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Posted 06 March 2013 - 09:28

Remember, the only driver this century who won the WDC in not the best car was Kimi in 2007.



Nobody remembers that because it never happened.

#332 PretentiousBread

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Posted 06 March 2013 - 22:22

Remember, the only driver this century who won the WDC in not the best car was Kimi in 2007. Hamilton and Alonso had the best car and lost it, and Hamilton nearly lost it in 2008 in the best car. He needs to feel comfortable and not under pressure.


I don't understand where this comes from, anyone who actually watched those seasons would not say the Ferrari was the second best car both years. If you simply go through all the events and judge which car was better between McLaren vs Ferrari you find a very different reality to what you think happened:

2007:

Australia - Ferrari
Malaysia - Ferrari
Bahrain - Ferrari
Spain - Too close to call
Monaco - McLaren
Canada - McLaren
USA - McLaren
France - Ferrari
GB - Ferrari
Europe (mixed) - Ferrari dry, McLaren wet
Hungary - McLaren
Turkey - Ferrari
Italy - McLaren
Belgium - Ferrari
Japan (wet) - McLaren
China (mixed) - Ferrari in the dry, McLaren in the wet
Brazil - Ferrari

I make that 8 - 6 to Ferrari, the rest were either draws or mixed weather conditions showed up the differing strengths of both cars.

2008

Australia - McLaren
Malaysia - Ferrari
Bahrain - Ferrari
Spain - Ferrari
Turkey - Ferrari
Monaco (mixed) - Ferrari
Canada - McLaren
France - Ferrari
GB (wet) - McLaren
Germany - McLaren
Hungary - Draw (McLaren better over a lap, Ferrari more than a match in the race)
Europe - Ferrari
Belgium (mixed) - McLaren
Italy (wet) - McLaren
Singapore - Ferrari
Japan - McLaren
China - Draw (Hamilton on a different level to the competition, as acknowledged by Rob Smedley at the time)
Brazil - Ferrari

I make that 9 - 7 to Ferrari, the others being as close as can be in car performance.

What can be said generally of both years was that the Ferrari was invariably the faster car in the dry, and especially hot conditions - McLaren invariably faster in cold or wet conditions. These characteristics also related to how McLaren tended to be a relatively speaking a better qualifying car than it was race car - in plenty of the above events where McLaren bagged pole, it was unable to also translate this performance advantage into any better race day performance, whereas the times Ferrari had the edge in qualifying it usually carried over into the races also, unless they were wet.

IMHO Alonso and Hamilton were a superior duo to Raikkonen/Massa in 2007, and coupled with the better reliability of the McLaren they were able to come within a whisker of winning the title despite the lesser raw performance of their car, but threw it away in freakish circumstances considering the points standings with just 2 races to go.

In 2008 Raikkonen majorly underperformed, Massa made too many mistakes (though not any more than Hamilton) and Hamilton won by dint of both this and Ferrari failing miserably to exploit the better performance of their car through reliability/operational mistakes at key moments, though I personally believe were Alonso in the F2008 (or Hamilton for that matter) that he would have walked the title regardless of these problems.

The Ferrari was the car to be in, both years.

Edited by PretentiousBread, 06 March 2013 - 22:25.


#333 RockyRaccoon68

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Posted 06 March 2013 - 22:34

IMHO Alonso and Hamilton were a superior duo to Raikkonen/Massa in 2007, and coupled with the better reliability of the McLaren they were able to come within a whisker of winning the title despite the lesser raw performance of their car, but threw it away in freakish circumstances considering the points standings with just 2 races to go.

In 2008 Raikkonen majorly underperformed, Massa made too many mistakes (though not any more than Hamilton) and Hamilton won by dint of both this and Ferrari failing miserably to exploit the better performance of their car through reliability/operational mistakes at key moments, though I personally believe were Alonso in the F2008 (or Hamilton for that matter) that he would have walked the title regardless of these problems.

The Ferrari was the car to be in, both years.


It would be difficult for me to agree with you anymore than I do right now! :up: :up:



#334 Disgrace

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Posted 06 March 2013 - 22:34

Yes, but as I've said before on the forum, it's widely accepted that Massa before his accident was a much better driver than what he's shown in the past few years. However, his recent form in the last few races of 2012 suggest a hint of the old Massa, and perhaps this is why he matched Fernando roughly in the last few races, despite the Ferrari second driver disadvantage.


No it's not. Results since his accident much more strongly suggest his problem has been with the change in tyre manufacturer.

#335 P123

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Posted 06 March 2013 - 22:42

No it's not. Results since his accident much more strongly suggest his problem has been with the change in tyre manufacturer.


I agree- it's more likely to be tyre based, plus a little bit of Hockenheim pulling of rank. Massa did briefly lead the championship in early 2010, fresh back from his accident.

As for the same person's claim that Raikkonen won the WDC in an inferior car... that would be the car that scored more victories, poles and fastest laps than any other. And that will be the Kimi that relied on Massa making way in Brazil to enable him to outscore the competition and take the title.

#336 spacekid

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Posted 06 March 2013 - 22:51

Too many of these threads fail, in my opinion, to reflect the fact that F1 is a team sport and the drivers are part of the team. A drivers championship is the culmination of the effort of the whole team, not just one man, despite he being the one to take the focus of the acclaim. A great driver can be the person to tie the whole package together, where a poor driver may not have been able to get the job done, but he still needs a sound foundation to work with.

On topic, a WDC for Lewis isn't impossible, but it does seem very unlikely that Mercedes have not only made up lost ground from last year to return them to their 3rd/4th-ish position on the grid, but then improved beyond that to have the best overall package (driver included). Ferrari, McLaren, Lotus and Red Bull would all need to have made serious mistakes over the winter for that to occur. I think that is unlikely.

#337 Juggles

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 01:46

What can be said generally of both years was that the Ferrari was invariably the faster car in the dry, and especially hot conditions - McLaren invariably faster in cold or wet conditions. These characteristics also related to how McLaren tended to be a relatively speaking a better qualifying car than it was race car - in plenty of the above events where McLaren bagged pole, it was unable to also translate this performance advantage into any better race day performance, whereas the times Ferrari had the edge in qualifying it usually carried over into the races also, unless they were wet.

IMHO Alonso and Hamilton were a superior duo to Raikkonen/Massa in 2007, and coupled with the better reliability of the McLaren they were able to come within a whisker of winning the title despite the lesser raw performance of their car, but threw it away in freakish circumstances considering the points standings with just 2 races to go.

In 2008 Raikkonen majorly underperformed, Massa made too many mistakes (though not any more than Hamilton) and Hamilton won by dint of both this and Ferrari failing miserably to exploit the better performance of their car through reliability/operational mistakes at key moments, though I personally believe were Alonso in the F2008 (or Hamilton for that matter) that he would have walked the title regardless of these problems.

The Ferrari was the car to be in, both years.


Hear hear. Give this man a biscuit.

#338 mattferg

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 03:01

What can be said generally of both years was that the Ferrari was invariably the faster car in the dry, and especially hot conditions - McLaren invariably faster in cold or wet conditions. These characteristics also related to how McLaren tended to be a relatively speaking a better qualifying car than it was race car - in plenty of the above events where McLaren bagged pole, it was unable to also translate this performance advantage into any better race day performance, whereas the times Ferrari had the edge in qualifying it usually carried over into the races also, unless they were wet.

IMHO Alonso and Hamilton were a superior duo to Raikkonen/Massa in 2007, and coupled with the better reliability of the McLaren they were able to come within a whisker of winning the title despite the lesser raw performance of their car, but threw it away in freakish circumstances considering the points standings with just 2 races to go.

In 2008 Raikkonen majorly underperformed, Massa made too many mistakes (though not any more than Hamilton) and Hamilton won by dint of both this and Ferrari failing miserably to exploit the better performance of their car through reliability/operational mistakes at key moments, though I personally believe were Alonso in the F2008 (or Hamilton for that matter) that he would have walked the title regardless of these problems.

The Ferrari was the car to be in, both years.


So surely if Raikkonen majorly underperformed, and Heikki also did badly, but Massa and Hamilton made the same amount of mistakes, the fact Hamilton won shows he was in the better car? #logic

As for your 'better car in race weekend' list, we all know from this year how subjective that can be, especially like this year with 6 cars in the mix, and as such it doesn't show the Ferrari was better, as said before, it's your opinion. Also, what with Heikki not being nearly as fast as Massa/Raikkonen/Hamilton (backed up by the fact those 3 are still in F1 and he isn't) suggests this may skew analysis of the McLaren's performance. A lot of people look at Heikki driving the car as its true pace, and Hamilton just making the car faster as he's normally believed to... but tbh I doubt Heikki would've driven that car as fast as Button or Perez would've.

Edited by mattferg, 07 March 2013 - 03:08.


#339 Obi Offiah

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 03:47

I remember a comment from Frank Williams back in 2007 or 2008 and I'm paraphrasing, but it was along the lines on 'thank god he (Hamilton) isn't in a Ferrari'.

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#340 JustinD

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 05:12

So surely if Raikkonen majorly underperformed, and Heikki also did badly, but Massa and Hamilton made the same amount of mistakes, the fact Hamilton won shows he was in the better car? #logic

As for your 'better car in race weekend' list, we all know from this year how subjective that can be, especially like this year with 6 cars in the mix, and as such it doesn't show the Ferrari was better, as said before, it's your opinion. Also, what with Heikki not being nearly as fast as Massa/Raikkonen/Hamilton (backed up by the fact those 3 are still in F1 and he isn't) suggests this may skew analysis of the McLaren's performance. A lot of people look at Heikki driving the car as its true pace, and Hamilton just making the car faster as he's normally believed to... but tbh I doubt Heikki would've driven that car as fast as Button or Perez would've.



There is No basis to claim Heikki is not nearly as fast as Massa and Kimi. He looked good against every team mate he ever had other than Hamilton, so it proves he was a solid driver who simply had bad luck to not have a seat in the sport. The Ferrari was clearly the better car unless you believe Massa is as fast as Lewis Hamilton, and I doubt even Massa himself believes that.

The 2007 Ferrari had the most poles, wins, fastest laps, and most laps lead by Massa, so to suggest it was not the best car of the season is ludicrous. The only was it way not the best was if Massa and Kimi were a class above the Mclaren drivers, in speed and everything.

Edited by JustinD, 07 March 2013 - 05:16.


#341 mattferg

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 06:20

There is No basis to claim Heikki is not nearly as fast as Massa and Kimi. He looked good against every team mate he ever had other than Hamilton, so it proves he was a solid driver who simply had bad luck to not have a seat in the sport. The Ferrari was clearly the better car unless you believe Massa is as fast as Lewis Hamilton, and I doubt even Massa himself believes that.

The 2007 Ferrari had the most poles, wins, fastest laps, and most laps lead by Massa, so to suggest it was not the best car of the season is ludicrous. The only was it way not the best was if Massa and Kimi were a class above the Mclaren drivers, in speed and everything.


Apart from Hamilton all his other teammates have been at Caterham or a floundering Renault, so definitely not top tier drivers like Kimi. Point redundant, sorry!

Edited by mattferg, 07 March 2013 - 08:30.


#342 JustinD

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 06:22

Apart from Hamilton all his other teammates have been at Caterham, so definitely not top tier drivers like Kimi. Point redundant, sorry!


you forgot renault with fisichella. Just started watching f1 huh?

#343 undersquare

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 08:07

Too many of these threads fail, in my opinion, to reflect the fact that F1 is a team sport and the drivers are part of the team. A drivers championship is the culmination of the effort of the whole team, not just one man, despite he being the one to take the focus of the acclaim. A great driver can be the person to tie the whole package together, where a poor driver may not have been able to get the job done, but he still needs a sound foundation to work with.

On topic, a WDC for Lewis isn't impossible, but it does seem very unlikely that Mercedes have not only made up lost ground from last year to return them to their 3rd/4th-ish position on the grid, but then improved beyond that to have the best overall package (driver included). Ferrari, McLaren, Lotus and Red Bull would all need to have made serious mistakes over the winter for that to occur. I think that is unlikely.


Well everyone gets this really but some people find it too tempting to gloss over the team/car aspect, and start (for example) going on about JB 'matching' LH on points as though that's all about the driving. Or it can be done the other way by citing the team/car in previous years as though nothing has changed at Mercedes.

Surely the point about Lewis' chances this year is that (a) he's faster and more consistent than Rosberg or Schumi2, and (b) the team behind the car is significantly different from previous years.

The chassis is now Costa, the aero is Elliot, so why should it be the same? That is the least likely prospect.

Edited by undersquare, 07 March 2013 - 08:09.


#344 mattferg

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 08:37

you forgot renault with fisichella. Just started watching f1 huh?


Nope, been watching since 2004. Heikki was pretty invisible in 2007 barring his podium so I forgot. But, then again, he was in 2008 barring his win too... and 2009...2010...2011...2012. Will anyone even notice he left?

Well everyone gets this really but some people find it too tempting to gloss over the team/car aspect, and start (for example) going on about JB 'matching' LH on points as though that's all about the driving. Or it can be done the other way by citing the team/car in previous years as though nothing has changed at Mercedes.

Surely the point about Lewis' chances this year is that (a) he's faster and more consistent than Rosberg or Schumi2, and (b) the team behind the car is significantly different from previous years.

The chassis is now Costa, the aero is Elliot, so why should it be the same? That is the least likely prospect.


One quick correction: JB didn't 'match' Lewis on points, he beat him. The reason this argument is used is because in both 2010 and 2012 JB finished directly behind LH in the WDC, suggesting they both got roughly the same out of the car on average, and Lewis just beat him. In 2011 however, Button thrashed Hamilton and finished three places higher. Either Hamilton underperformed in the car or Button overperformed. You choose :-) You can't say the same about the other seasons, even if you argue 2012 was all about reliability, as it's known LH is rougher on his cars and this may have played a factor.

#345 Kingshark

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 08:39

Yes, but they might say the same of Vettel or Alonso. Remember, the only driver this century who won the WDC in not the best car was Kimi in 2007. Hamilton and Alonso had the best car and lost it, and Hamilton nearly lost it in 2008 in the best car. He needs to feel comfortable and not under pressure.

Alonso's championship in 2006 was won w/o the best car.

Raikkonen did have the best car in 2007. Ferrari were quicker than McLaren more often than vice versa.

Any car in which Felipe Massa can challenge for the championship, cannot be inferior to the best.

In 2008, no way McLaren had the best car. Hamilton made all the difference that year, coming from an Alonso fan.

#346 mattferg

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 08:42

Alonso's championship in 2006 was won w/o the best car.

Raikkonen did have the best car in 2007. Ferrari were quicker than McLaren more often than vice versa.

Any car in which Felipe Massa can challenge for the championship, cannot be inferior to the best.

In 2008, no way McLaren had the best car. Hamilton made all the difference that year, coming from an Alonso fan.


Ahahahahahaha sorry can't take the rest of your post seriously now. I love how you come up with all these ridiculous stories to back up the claim only Alonso and Hamilton can win in not the best car... Which has always been rubbish.

#347 Kingshark

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 08:49

Rubbish?

In 2006 Renault and Ferrari were very close, but at least in the first half of the season Schumacher was able to challenge Alonso. Indianapolis onward, Alonso often stood no chance against Ferrari in the dry. Overall, the Ferrari was better that year.

Even in 2007, Raikkonen fans continue to make up lies about how Ferrari were inferior to McLaren that season. BS! McLaren were only quicker around power circuits (Montreal, Indy, Fuji and Monza) and around Monaco. For the rest of the season, Ferrari was the car to have.

You are talking even more rubbish when you claim McLaren had the best car in 2008!
Any season in which Felipe Massa and Lewis Hamilton end up with almost identical points, you know that Massa drove the better car.

Hamilton is capable of winning the championship with the second best car, and he's shown it before, and he can do it again w/ Mercedes.

#348 JustinD

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 08:52

Ahahahahahaha sorry can't take the rest of your post seriously now. I love how you come up with all these ridiculous stories to back up the claim only Alonso and Hamilton can win in not the best car... Which has always been rubbish.


Why has it always been rubbish? Because you don't like it?

#349 mattferg

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 08:56

Why has it always been rubbish? Because you don't like it?


"As usual in F1, the quickest or best car will win the championship in the end,"
- Fernando Alonso

My point about Kimi in 2007 is my opinion and I change it every now and then, as I think the Ferrari and McLaren were fairly well matched that year. However, the McLaren in 2008 was the best and the only reason that's questioned is because Heikki underperformed and lost the constructors championship.

Edited by mattferg, 07 March 2013 - 08:57.


#350 Kingshark

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 08:58

There is No basis to claim Heikki is not nearly as fast as Massa and Kimi. He looked good against every team mate he ever had other than Hamilton, so it proves he was a solid driver who simply had bad luck to not have a seat in the sport. The Ferrari was clearly the better car unless you believe Massa is as fast as Lewis Hamilton, and I doubt even Massa himself believes that.

The 2007 Ferrari had the most poles, wins, fastest laps, and most laps lead by Massa, so to suggest it was not the best car of the season is ludicrous. The only was it way not the best was if Massa and Kimi were a class above the Mclaren drivers, in speed and everything.

You hit the nail right in the head, I especially love the bold part.

As I said before:

Even in 2007, Raikkonen fans continue to make up lies about how Ferrari were inferior to McLaren that season. BS! McLaren were only quicker around power circuits (Montreal, Indy, Fuji and Monza) and around Monaco. For the rest of the season, Ferrari was the car to have.

Hamilton is capable of winning the championship with the second best car, and he's shown it before, and he can do it again w/ Mercedes.

Matt, do you seriously believe Massa is faster than Hamilton?

Give me an honest answer.

Edited by Kingshark, 07 March 2013 - 09:00.