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What are Lewis's chances of winning 2013 WDC? [split]


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#401 Baddoer

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Posted 08 March 2013 - 08:24

Not gonna happen.

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#402 Buttoneer

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Posted 08 March 2013 - 14:20

This is all very off topic.

The point of the topic is what Hamiltons' chances of gaining a second WDC are in 2013. Please do not hijack the thread for your own purposes. If you have an interesting or novel topic for discussion, please start a new thread.

#403 Bruce

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Posted 08 March 2013 - 15:45

I've said this before bu I think it bears repeating...

I really don't think that Lewis has a chance this year. Oh - he might win a couple - but the WDC? No. The issue is not Lewis' driving skill - it is a car that last year was, in general, languishing in the high mid-field for much of the season. Mercedes does seem, at lest in testing, to have made strides, but if you think that testing is an accurate reflection of the coming year, I think you'll be unpleasantly surprised; Red Bull, Ferrari, McLaren and Lotus will have made strides too - even Williams could be a potential threat.

It's not impossible for Leweis to win 2013 - just highly, highly, highly unlikely, given the machinery he will have at his disposal.

I'd put him in at 100 to one odds - again - not because of him - because of the car he has and the cars around him. If you think that Mercedes will miraculously be a title-worthy car the year Hamilton joins, I think you're getting your hopes up.

Just my opinsion - and I may have to do an about-face on this - but I suspect the odds are very small....

#404 Neomaster121

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Posted 08 March 2013 - 16:18

I've said this before bu I think it bears repeating...

I really don't think that Lewis has a chance this year. Oh - he might win a couple - but the WDC? No. The issue is not Lewis' driving skill - it is a car that last year was, in general, languishing in the high mid-field for much of the season. Mercedes does seem, at lest in testing, to have made strides, but if you think that testing is an accurate reflection of the coming year, I think you'll be unpleasantly surprised; Red Bull, Ferrari, McLaren and Lotus will have made strides too - even Williams could be a potential threat.

It's not impossible for Leweis to win 2013 - just highly, highly, highly unlikely, given the machinery he will have at his disposal.

I'd put him in at 100 to one odds - again - not because of him - because of the car he has and the cars around him. If you think that Mercedes will miraculously be a title-worthy car the year Hamilton joins, I think you're getting your hopes up.

Just my opinsion - and I may have to do an about-face on this - but I suspect the odds are very small....


But i find your making that judgement solely basising on last year performance which have many explanations.

Mercedes didn't get their coanda system working
They had to upgrade their wind tunnel thus alot of development stopped
They also chased after a lot of red herrings which didn't end their cause

I remember mcl season where they decided to go back to basics and that did so much for them think that was 2011

This car looks like its gotten rid of a lot of the red herrings and that the foundations are sound, that combined with a sorted wind tunnel bringing aero developments won't be an issue as long as the foundations are correct

#405 undersquare

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Posted 08 March 2013 - 16:20

I've said this before bu I think it bears repeating...

I really don't think that Lewis has a chance this year. Oh - he might win a couple - but the WDC? No. The issue is not Lewis' driving skill - it is a car that last year was, in general, languishing in the high mid-field for much of the season. Mercedes does seem, at lest in testing, to have made strides, but if you think that testing is an accurate reflection of the coming year, I think you'll be unpleasantly surprised; Red Bull, Ferrari, McLaren and Lotus will have made strides too - even Williams could be a potential threat.

It's not impossible for Leweis to win 2013 - just highly, highly, highly unlikely, given the machinery he will have at his disposal.

I'd put him in at 100 to one odds - again - not because of him - because of the car he has and the cars around him. If you think that Mercedes will miraculously be a title-worthy car the year Hamilton joins, I think you're getting your hopes up.

Just my opinsion - and I may have to do an about-face on this - but I suspect the odds are very small....


Well we don't have enough data but this year's Merc is not last year's is it? Now they have Costa, Elliot, a new 60% windtunnel, and all last year's cars to copy especially the Mac. Just eliminating the exhaust tyre heating will give them a big step.

Meanwhile among the opposition McLaren have a radical pullrod design that's looking a bit tricky and no Hamilton, Red Bull have new front wing tests and no new engine maps, and Ferrari look 'not a disaster' and on the face of it well in range.

So I don't see it as so unlikely, personally. Pessimism depends entirely on this year's car resembling last year's, and there are good reasons to think it's not going to.

#406 Coops3

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Posted 08 March 2013 - 19:29

I've said this before bu I think it bears repeating...

I really don't think that Lewis has a chance this year. Oh - he might win a couple - but the WDC? No. The issue is not Lewis' driving skill - it is a car that last year was, in general, languishing in the high mid-field for much of the season. Mercedes does seem, at lest in testing, to have made strides, but if you think that testing is an accurate reflection of the coming year, I think you'll be unpleasantly surprised; Red Bull, Ferrari, McLaren and Lotus will have made strides too - even Williams could be a potential threat.

It's not impossible for Leweis to win 2013 - just highly, highly, highly unlikely, given the machinery he will have at his disposal.

I'd put him in at 100 to one odds - again - not because of him - because of the car he has and the cars around him. If you think that Mercedes will miraculously be a title-worthy car the year Hamilton joins, I think you're getting your hopes up.

Just my opinsion - and I may have to do an about-face on this - but I suspect the odds are very small....


I pretty much agree with you. I wouldn't put the odds as long as 100/1 though. I've just checked the odds on Betfair and insanely, Lewis is currently 7/1! Before all the Merc hype kicked off, I seem to remember it was about 30/1 - I'd say that's about right.

#407 apoka

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Posted 08 March 2013 - 19:52

I pretty much agree with you. I wouldn't put the odds as long as 100/1 though. I've just checked the odds on Betfair and insanely, Lewis is currently 7/1! Before all the Merc hype kicked off, I seem to remember it was about 30/1 - I'd say that's about right.

The actual flexible odds are about 1:10.5 with an implied WDC chance slightly below 10%.

I'd also say that 1/100 is too long. They went 3 seconds faster during the last test than their best previous Q and test lap and pretty much everyone said that they were pretty impressive. The gap to the top teams is likely to be small and with a bit of luck lots things can happen.


#408 Coops3

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Posted 08 March 2013 - 20:59

The actual flexible odds are about 1:10.5 with an implied WDC chance slightly below 10%.

I'd also say that 1/100 is too long. They went 3 seconds faster during the last test than their best previous Q and test lap and pretty much everyone said that they were pretty impressive. The gap to the top teams is likely to be small and with a bit of luck lots things can happen.


True, but it's more the development that worries me. They started last year pretty strongly as well...

#409 Bruce

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Posted 08 March 2013 - 23:38

But i find your making that judgement solely basising on last year performance which have many explanations.

Mercedes didn't get their coanda system working
They had to upgrade their wind tunnel thus alot of development stopped
They also chased after a lot of red herrings which didn't end their cause

I remember mcl season where they decided to go back to basics and that did so much for them think that was 2011

This car looks like its gotten rid of a lot of the red herrings and that the foundations are sound, that combined with a sorted wind tunnel bringing aero developments won't be an issue as long as the foundations are correct


In an off season like this one there is little else to base one's prognostications on... after all, there have been few real changes to the rules and therefore a certain stasis isto be expected. I'm not saying of course that it is impossible for them to improve - it's not - but to improve meaningfully they will have to not only improve from their own position last year but also to improve against the moving target that is the teams above them; that's a tough move. It's been done before, but usually some sort of major movement is required - for instance, when Williams turned it around on McLaren in the early 90s it was when Mclaren lost their Hondas and replaced them with Fords - or when Williams lost their Renault's and replace them with the so-called Mecachromes...

If the Mercedes were a great base and easy to fix, it would have been done last year, don't you think?

It is interesting that the Mercedes seems to have made such strides in testing, but I'm not going to pay much attention to that - testing has flattered to deceive before...

We'll know a little more after the race - can't wait!

#410 Buttoneer

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Posted 08 March 2013 - 23:47

True, but it's more the development that worries me. They started last year pretty strongly as well...

Look at last years reliability too. Mercedes was appalling. They don't need four Tech Directors, they need one QA Director. If either of the drivers want to have a hope at going for a championship, they don't need constant DRS failures and mechanical breakdowns.

#411 BernieEc

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Posted 09 March 2013 - 00:12

Look at last years reliability too. Mercedes was appalling. They don't need four Tech Directors, they need one QA Director. If either of the drivers want to have a hope at going for a championship, they don't need constant DRS failures and mechanical breakdowns.

Don't you think it's a fair assumption that since the car now has a good driver pairing and with decent lap-times (albeit testing) that maybe these 4 Technical directors have sorted out the aero, mechanical grip and gotten to understand the exhaust solution much better and might just as well have sorted the reliability problems.

Would that not be a fair assumption. We all don't really know how competitive they are compared to others, but in the our speculative virtual world, if they are competitive like some allude to (although we keep saying it's testing) can't we also assume these same 4 tech directors would have sorted out the reliability problems. in my opinion I think its easier to sort reliability problems than it is to make a car go faster.

I know there's a saying about too many cooks spoil the broth ( a reference to Mercedes technical Directors).....sometimes though 4 very good chefs might just get make you a 5 star restaurant.

#412 Neomaster121

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Posted 09 March 2013 - 00:31

Don't you think it's a fair assumption that since the car now has a good driver pairing and with decent lap-times (albeit testing) that maybe these 4 Technical directors have sorted out the aero, mechanical grip and gotten to understand the exhaust solution much better and might just as well have sorted the reliability problems.

Would that not be a fair assumption. We all don't really know how competitive they are compared to others, but in the our speculative virtual world, if they are competitive like some allude to (although we keep saying it's testing) can't we also assume these same 4 tech directors would have sorted out the reliability problems. in my opinion I think its easier to sort reliability problems than it is to make a car go faster.

I know there's a saying about too many cooks spoil the broth ( a reference to Mercedes technical Directors).....sometimes though 4 very good chefs might just get make you a 5 star restaurant.


Could soon be 5 with paddy on the way

#413 Coops3

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Posted 09 March 2013 - 00:44

Don't you think it's a fair assumption that since the car now has a good driver pairing and with decent lap-times (albeit testing) that maybe these 4 Technical directors have sorted out the aero, mechanical grip and gotten to understand the exhaust solution much better and might just as well have sorted the reliability problems.

Would that not be a fair assumption. We all don't really know how competitive they are compared to others, but in the our speculative virtual world, if they are competitive like some allude to (although we keep saying it's testing) can't we also assume these same 4 tech directors would have sorted out the reliability problems. in my opinion I think its easier to sort reliability problems than it is to make a car go faster.

I know there's a saying about too many cooks spoil the broth ( a reference to Mercedes technical Directors).....sometimes though 4 very good chefs might just get make you a 5 star restaurant.


Not meaning to sound contrary, but I don't think those are fair assumptions at all. I would go so far as to say no matter what happens in testing, to any team, you couldn't make those assumptions. I do hope you're right though and I'm ready to be proved wrong!


#414 BernieEc

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Posted 09 March 2013 - 01:14

Not meaning to sound contrary, but I don't think those are fair assumptions at all. I would go so far as to say no matter what happens in testing, to any team, you couldn't make those assumptions. I do hope you're right though and I'm ready to be proved wrong!


I agree. I was just replying to buttoneer's post which had to do with Mercs reliability issues last year which reduces the chances of them challenging this year. I was just highlighting that making a car fast is more difficult than making a car reliable. I know we can't use testing to judge hence why I put a caveat of !in our speculative virtual world"

#415 Bruce

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Posted 09 March 2013 - 01:42

Well we don't have enough data but this year's Merc is not last year's is it? Now they have Costa, Elliot, a new 60% windtunnel, and all last year's cars to copy especially the Mac. Just eliminating the exhaust tyre heating will give them a big step.

Meanwhile among the opposition McLaren have a radical pullrod design that's looking a bit tricky and no Hamilton, Red Bull have new front wing tests and no new engine maps, and Ferrari look 'not a disaster' and on the face of it well in range.

So I don't see it as so unlikely, personally. Pessimism depends entirely on this year's car resembling last year's, and there are good reasons to think it's not going to.


Why is Costa held up as some kind of hope for Mercedes? It's not as though he covered himself with glory at Ferrari - is it? I agree with you though - if they can eliminate the tyre issues that will be a big help - but again, if it were easy, they would have done it last season. Look at the amount of work (not all successful) that Ferrari did...

I wouldn't say I'm "pessimistic" about the Mercedes - I certainly don't expect it to be worse than last year (that would be pessimism) - I simply don't think it's likely that they will suddenly jump to prominence over the likes of McLaren, RedBull and Ferrari (and Lotus). I think they can improve - but going from a team that finished 5th in the WDc with less than half the points of their next nearest competitor (Lotus) to a WDC seems, on the face of it to be a "big ask".


#416 slmk

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Posted 09 March 2013 - 15:18

Why is Costa held up as some kind of hope for Mercedes? It's not as though he covered himself with glory at Ferrari - is it? I agree with you though - if they can eliminate the tyre issues that will be a big help - but again, if it were easy, they would have done it last season. Look at the amount of work (not all successful) that Ferrari did...

I wouldn't say I'm "pessimistic" about the Mercedes - I certainly don't expect it to be worse than last year (that would be pessimism) - I simply don't think it's likely that they will suddenly jump to prominence over the likes of McLaren, RedBull and Ferrari (and Lotus). I think they can improve - but going from a team that finished 5th in the WDc with less than half the points of their next nearest competitor (Lotus) to a WDC seems, on the face of it to be a "big ask".


Quoted for future reference!

http://en.wikipedia....wiki/Aldo_Costa

He's got good to very good cars on his resume!

#417 undersquare

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Posted 09 March 2013 - 15:39

Why is Costa held up as some kind of hope for Mercedes? It's not as though he covered himself with glory at Ferrari - is it? I agree with you though - if they can eliminate the tyre issues that will be a big help - but again, if it were easy, they would have done it last season. Look at the amount of work (not all successful) that Ferrari did...

I wouldn't say I'm "pessimistic" about the Mercedes - I certainly don't expect it to be worse than last year (that would be pessimism) - I simply don't think it's likely that they will suddenly jump to prominence over the likes of McLaren, RedBull and Ferrari (and Lotus). I think they can improve - but going from a team that finished 5th in the WDc with less than half the points of their next nearest competitor (Lotus) to a WDC seems, on the face of it to be a "big ask".


I wouldn't be surprised if at Ferrari Costa was a victim of the Peter Principle - if you're good at your job you get promoted, over and over until at last you arrive at a level where you're not that good...

Now as Engineering Director rather than overall TD, he can do chassis which I suspect is his forte rather than oversight. Just guessing really, but grounds for hope afaic.

To me the tyre heating sounds like a cockup on a par with the Silver Donkey's inwash front wing, and now they've found it. Anyway in general I don't see it as last year's car plus a bit, stepping up the ladder rung by rung, I see it as a new car created by a different process.


#418 aray

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Posted 09 March 2013 - 15:54

i believe Lewis will snatch couple of wins but no championship...

Edited by aray, 09 March 2013 - 15:54.


#419 CookinFlatSix

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Posted 09 March 2013 - 17:09

Its amazing how some people can only see what they already believe.
The same people who will have you know that Merc now have 4 previous TDs on their staff (whoms contribution can only be felt on the W04) are the same who insist that this years car must be judged entirely by last years car.
The same ones who point out that Merc now have a new wind tunnel scale and more and different resources to last year will be the ones saying its impossible for a car to gain 2 seconds over a period.

Lets say RBR made a massive error with its wind tunnel work, lost 3 key engineers mid season and by mistake developed an exhaust that cooked the tyres. Lets say RBR ended the season 2 seconds behind the others in 5th, many would tell us that a team could gain 3 seconds by fixing things that were broken.

Ah, we could say that RBR have a history of success and that would explain the assumption they would claw back deficits the top teams dont have due to diminishing returns. In that case we could also point to the time it took RBR to go from no success to the dominant force it is now.

What did RBR do? Spend money like its going out of fashion, hire the best available money can buy, restructure and reorganise the whole team? But when Merc do it we are back to the 'Car was bad last year, must be bad this year also'

What makes up an F1 outfit? money, resources, and staff. So Merc have these now, and a new car designed by new staff but uniquely nothing must change? Lol

Lets take the chewing up of tyres, a big problem last year, since then the chassis has been redesigned by Aldo Costa - the chap responsible for the nimble Ferraris that had good traction and were easy on tyres, the guy whos car was so good even Massa looked good in it. But now he is at Merc, he is expected to recreate the tyre chewer from last year?

Its amazing how the same type of pre conceived and prejudged stuff follows LH around and now seems to be rubbing off on Merc, probably from same types

So I wish people would decide - is Merc destined to fail because they were so bad last year and nothing changes, or is it because they have changed too much and have more chefs than diners?
Or is it just because LH made a big mistake moving there?

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#420 Neomaster121

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Posted 09 March 2013 - 17:33

Its amazing how some people can only see what they already believe.
The same people who will have you know that Merc now have 4 previous TDs on their staff (whoms contribution can only be felt on the W04) are the same who insist that this years car must be judged entirely by last years car.
The same ones who point out that Merc now have a new wind tunnel scale and more and different resources to last year will be the ones saying its impossible for a car to gain 2 seconds over a period.

Lets say RBR made a massive error with its wind tunnel work, lost 3 key engineers mid season and by mistake developed an exhaust that cooked the tyres. Lets say RBR ended the season 2 seconds behind the others in 5th, many would tell us that a team could gain 3 seconds by fixing things that were broken.

Ah, we could say that RBR have a history of success and that would explain the assumption they would claw back deficits the top teams dont have due to diminishing returns. In that case we could also point to the time it took RBR to go from no success to the dominant force it is now.

What did RBR do? Spend money like its going out of fashion, hire the best available money can buy, restructure and reorganise the whole team? But when Merc do it we are back to the 'Car was bad last year, must be bad this year also'

What makes up an F1 outfit? money, resources, and staff. So Merc have these now, and a new car designed by new staff but uniquely nothing must change? Lol

Lets take the chewing up of tyres, a big problem last year, since then the chassis has been redesigned by Aldo Costa - the chap responsible for the nimble Ferraris that had good traction and were easy on tyres, the guy whos car was so good even Massa looked good in it. But now he is at Merc, he is expected to recreate the tyre chewer from last year?

Its amazing how the same type of pre conceived and prejudged stuff follows LH around and now seems to be rubbing off on Merc, probably from same types

So I wish people would decide - is Merc destined to fail because they were so bad last year and nothing changes, or is it because they have changed too much and have more chefs than diners?
Or is it just because LH made a big mistake moving there?



Quoted for the truth

this why i think mercedes are in the mix
they simply corrected many of the faults which put them back 2secs
and also they were competitive in the first quarter of last season too, red bull may have the best down force but they weren't the fastest car last year that was mclaren, and until mclaren fix up their set up problems think mercedes if operationally wise are good ie pit stops, strategy they could go places... plus i'm sure paddy lowe will be give the odd tips on aspects of mclaren which maybe of benefit to mercedes.

#421 Bruce

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Posted 09 March 2013 - 22:58

Quoted for future reference!

http://en.wikipedia....wiki/Aldo_Costa

He's got good to very good cars on his resume!



Adrian Newey had some "good to very good" cars on his resumé too... but it still took three years for Red Bull to move from promising underdog to WDC and CC after they signed him. Yet Aldo Costa is going to move to Mercedes and suddenly, in his first year, drag Mercedes from 5th place on 142 points to a CC/WDC contender?



#422 slmk

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Posted 09 March 2013 - 23:02

Adrian Newey had some "good to very good" cars on his resumé too... but it still took three years for Red Bull to move from promising underdog to WDC and CC after they signed him. Yet Aldo Costa is going to move to Mercedes and suddenly, in his first year, drag Mercedes from 5th place on 142 points to a CC/WDC contender?


The RBR in 2008 wasn't such a bad car - look at the Toro Rosso; in the hands of Vettel, it did some very good things, particularly in the wet. The Renault engine was letting the chassis down, IMO.

And you can't compare Newey's arrival with Costa; Costa is not THE man at Mercedes - it's an ensemble cast. Newey is and has always been THE man.

#423 Bruce

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Posted 09 March 2013 - 23:02

Probably worth mentioning, too, that Ross Brawn had a pretty impressive resumé prior to his tenure at Mercedes. That impressive resumé, however, was not necessarily a harbinger of immediate success. Methinks you people ask too much of the likes of Costa, Wolff, Lauda et al in their first year...

#424 jjcale

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Posted 09 March 2013 - 23:09

Quoted for the truth

this why i think mercedes are in the mix
they simply corrected many of the faults which put them back 2secs
and also they were competitive in the first quarter of last season too, red bull may have the best down force but they weren't the fastest car last year that was mclaren, and until mclaren fix up their set up problems think mercedes if operationally wise are good ie pit stops, strategy they could go places... plus i'm sure paddy lowe will be give the odd tips on aspects of mclaren which maybe of benefit to mercedes.


What we are seeing is inverse normalcy bias http://en.wikipedia....i/Normalcy_bias

#425 slmk

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Posted 09 March 2013 - 23:26

Probably worth mentioning, too, that Ross Brawn had a pretty impressive resumé prior to his tenure at Mercedes. That impressive resumé, however, was not necessarily a harbinger of immediate success. Methinks you people ask too much of the likes of Costa, Wolff, Lauda et al in their first year...


I don't think Lewis will have a crack at the WDC, personally, but it's not too farfetched to image that they could have a shot this year at being in the top 2-3 teams.

Re: Brawn, don't forget that he had unlimited budget at Ferrari, while it was the complete opposite at Mercedes, save for this year and going forward (as Mercedes ramps up its involvement).

#426 spacekid

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Posted 09 March 2013 - 23:36

snip
Don't you think it's a fair assumption that since the car now has a good driver pairing
snip


Yes, the problem last year was definately that German bloke. Thank goodness King Lewis is here now to sort things out.

I've seen a lot of comments from Lewis fans about how now Mercedes finally has a decent driver - I think some of you are in for a surprise.

#427 F1ultimate

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Posted 09 March 2013 - 23:36

I don't think Lewis will have a crack at the WDC, personally, but it's not too farfetched to image that they could have a shot this year at being in the top 2-3 teams.


Ditto :up:

Who would have thought that Kimi would finish third last year in a car that was clearly not a title contender. If Kimi can challenge in a Lotus, Lewis can challenge in a Merc.

It will be a cracking season.

#428 undersquare

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Posted 09 March 2013 - 23:54

Adrian Newey had some "good to very good" cars on his resumé too... but it still took three years for Red Bull to move from promising underdog to WDC and CC after they signed him. Yet Aldo Costa is going to move to Mercedes and suddenly, in his first year, drag Mercedes from 5th place on 142 points to a CC/WDC contender?


I doesn't need such a huge step. They have to fix the rear tyre temperatures, which they probably have long since, and then make a normal step. With not just Costa but also Elliot and the others, reorganisation, new 60% windtunnel, and Hamilton. Who knows but it's entirely doable.

#429 Bruce

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Posted 10 March 2013 - 00:07

I don't think Lewis will have a crack at the WDC, personally, but it's not too farfetched to image that they could have a shot this year at being in the top 2-3 teams.



I agree - I just don't think (apropos the title of the tread) that LH has a chance at the WDC - not this year anyway.

Of course - now that I've actually typed that, it'll happen... ;-)

#430 klyster

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Posted 10 March 2013 - 00:24

I hope so Bruce ;)

#431 CookinFlatSix

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Posted 10 March 2013 - 00:27

Yes, the problem last year was definately that German bloke. Thank goodness King Lewis is here now to sort things out.

I've seen a lot of comments from Lewis fans about how now Mercedes finally has a decent driver - I think some of you are in for a surprise.


MS was embarrasing the last couple of years. We saw flashes of the original MS, like Monaco qualy, but anyone thinking his numerous crashes and mistakes and general 'over the hill' ness wouldnt have have a detrimental effect that a charger like MS in his prime wouldnt is being disingenuous to say the least.

LH is the closest available to MS in his prime, Nico is possibly as good but just doesnt have the reference of having had a WC capable car

What we are seeing is inverse normalcy bias http://en.wikipedia....i/Normalcy_bias

there is definitely a lot of this on this thread

http://en.wikipedia....Status_quo_bias

Edited by CookinFlatSix, 10 March 2013 - 00:39.


#432 slmk

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Posted 10 March 2013 - 00:56

I agree - I just don't think (apropos the title of the tread) that LH has a chance at the WDC - not this year anyway.

Of course - now that I've actually typed that, it'll happen... ;-)


Hey, I wouldn't mind eating crow this time!

#433 spacekid

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Posted 10 March 2013 - 01:22

MS was embarrasing the last couple of years. We saw flashes of the original MS, like Monaco qualy, but anyone thinking his numerous crashes and mistakes and general 'over the hill' ness wouldnt have have a detrimental effect that a charger like MS in his prime wouldnt is being disingenuous to say the least.


He had a poor 2010, but actually drove well in 2012.

The point is last year the Merc was poor. If it is better this year it won't be because Michael has been replaced by Lewis.

And then you say I am the one being disingenuous? Fortunately I doubt Lewis is as arrogant as some of his fans.

If the car is poor this year and Lewis struggles some of you are in for a real surprise.

Edited by spacekid, 10 March 2013 - 01:26.


#434 CookinFlatSix

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Posted 10 March 2013 - 02:33

He had a poor 2010, but actually drove well in 2012.

The point is last year the Merc was poor. If it is better this year it won't be because Michael has been replaced by Lewis.

And then you say I am the one being disingenuous? Fortunately I doubt Lewis is as arrogant as some of his fans.

If the car is poor this year and Lewis struggles some of you are in for a real surprise.


The Merc was poor last year for well documented reasons. This year if the car does well it will be because of development, new staff, more funds and yes, better drivers for galvanising the team and spearheading development by maxing the car and making few mistakes

Is someone saying MS is currently a driver more able to extract maximum performance from the package?
'King Lewis' - that must be some type of reverse arrogance

#435 spacekid

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Posted 10 March 2013 - 11:12

The Merc was poor last year for well documented reasons. This year if the car does well it will be because of development, new staff, more funds and yes, better drivers for galvanising the team and spearheading development by maxing the car and making few mistakes

Is someone saying MS is currently a driver more able to extract maximum performance from the package?
'King Lewis' - that must be some type of reverse arrogance


No, the post I was referring to was saying that Merc will do better this year as they have have a decent driver pairing. Unlike last year.

Last year Michael drove well, the car was poor.

No one is suggesting Michael would be able to extract more performance from the car, so don't try to twist the argument. If you are going to reply to me, why not stick to the point? The poor performance last year was not down to the driver pairing.

All the Lewis fans saying the Merc will be a better car this year all because of him are in for a surprise, I believe. And I re-iterate, I don't think Lewis himself is as arrogant as some of his fans on here.

Edited by spacekid, 10 March 2013 - 11:16.


#436 Spoch

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Posted 10 March 2013 - 13:10

Why is Costa held up as some kind of hope for Mercedes? It's not as though he covered himself with glory at Ferrari - is it? I agree with you though - if they can eliminate the tyre issues that will be a big help - but again, if it were easy, they would have done it last season. Look at the amount of work (not all successful) that Ferrari did...

I wouldn't say I'm "pessimistic" about the Mercedes - I certainly don't expect it to be worse than last year (that would be pessimism) - I simply don't think it's likely that they will suddenly jump to prominence over the likes of McLaren, RedBull and Ferrari (and Lotus). I think they can improve - but going from a team that finished 5th in the WDc with less than half the points of their next nearest competitor (Lotus) to a WDC seems, on the face of it to be a "big ask".

in 2004, Mcl fnished 5th and in 2005 they had the fastest car but due to unreliability, they handed the championships to Renault. In 2006, they didn't win a single race and podiums were a luxury and BAM 2007 they produce a bullet of a car and still manage to lose both championships. Nothing wrong in hoping that Merc wont have a good car this season. Mcl IMO never fails to fail!!! So the one man that led the development of the revolutionary 2013 car is sent on gardening leave. If the changes in 2014 are to be major, what is the harm in keeping him on to keep working on this years car? If the cars in the top 4 are spread by 0.3 sec, and Merc is in there then LH has a very good chance of being wht WDC. It is going to be a function of this machine as we all already know that he can really drive good

#437 Bruce

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Posted 10 March 2013 - 15:14

If the cars in the top 4 are spread by 0.3 sec, and Merc is in there then LH has a very good chance of being wht WDC. It is going to be a function of this machine as we all already know that he can really drive good


Well, in general, when you mention the top 4 teams I think you have concede that said teams are Red Bull, McLaren, Ferrari, Lotus - not necessarily in that order. Just looking at the final standings last year (CC) Red Bull : 460, Ferrari : 400, McLaren : 378, Lotus : 303, and ... Mercedes : 142. I'm not saying that the "past equals the future", but, let's face it - lumping the 5th place car from last year in with teams that doubled and trebled their points? I think it is optimistic, in spite of what testing suggests. You also point out that "McLaren never Fails to fail". Well - it's the sort of failure that most teams dream of... 3rd with drivers 4th and 5th in 2012, 2nd in 2011, with drivers 2nd and 5th, 2nd in 2010 with drivers 4th and 5th, 5th in 2009 with drivers 5th and 12th, 2nd in 2008 with drivers 1st and 7th.... and this qualifies as "never failing to fail". OK - Fair enough. Mercedes? 2010 : 4th with drivers 7th and 9th, 2011 4th, with drivers 7th and 8th, 2012, 5th, with drivers 9th and 13th.

This is what puzzles me - I think Lewis fans are fed up with McLaren because of the expectation/disappointment (so close and yet so far syndrome), but now that Lewis is moving to Mercedes, we have a thread asking what the chances are of him winning the WDC, and (some) people are optimistic? The best position a Mercedes driver has ever finished (in the modern era) is 7th - and yet, Lewis is going to jump into the car, it's going to shed all it's faults from last year, it will suddenly be as fast (or almost) as all the top cars, and it will yield an extra 150 - to 200 points for Lewis than it did for Rosberg last year (it will need to for him to win the WDC)?

I just don't think it's going to happen. Mercedes would have to make massive gains on the 4 cars in front of them if they are to beat them all - this is unlikely to happen in a year where there are no major rules changes to hobble the top teams. The new team members that Mercedes have or are hiring have not had a chance to settle in yet and "gel" - neither have they had the chance to make any real contributions to this years car. Certainly, Mercedes has the space to improve this year - but the WDC? It's a pipe dream.

#438 Seanspeed

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Posted 10 March 2013 - 15:19

Why is Costa held up as some kind of hope for Mercedes?

For a lot of people, the logic goes something like this:

- Works for a rival team: "Eh, that guy isn't anything special. Look at car 'x' and car 'y' - they didn't do well. He doesn't even have that big a role as 'z' is the more important guy there."

- Moves to your team: "This will be a huge boost to our team. Look at car 'a' and car 'b' - they were fantastic. He's a large reason for that other team's success."

Note: this does not apply to Adrian Newey.



#439 study

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Posted 10 March 2013 - 15:27

For a lot of people, the logic goes something like this:

- Works for a rival team: "Eh, that guy isn't anything special. Look at car 'x' and car 'y' - they didn't do well. He doesn't even have that big a role as 'z' is the more important guy there."

- Moves to your team: "This will be a huge boost to our team. Look at car 'a' and car 'b' - they were fantastic. He's a large reason for that other team's success."

Note: this does not apply to Adrian Newey.


:rolleyes:

I think Aldo has a reputation of cars light on their tyres, people really arn't as simple minded as you try to make out.

Edited by study, 10 March 2013 - 15:28.


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#440 Bruce

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Posted 10 March 2013 - 15:28

For a lot of people, the logic goes something like this:

- Works for a rival team: "Eh, that guy isn't anything special. Look at car 'x' and car 'y' - they didn't do well. He doesn't even have that big a role as 'z' is the more important guy there."

- Moves to your team: "This will be a huge boost to our team. Look at car 'a' and car 'b' - they were fantastic. He's a large reason for that other team's success."

Note: this does not apply to Adrian Newey.


:up:

#441 slmk

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 09:22

For a lot of people, the logic goes something like this:

- Works for a rival team: "Eh, that guy isn't anything special. Look at car 'x' and car 'y' - they didn't do well. He doesn't even have that big a role as 'z' is the more important guy there."

- Moves to your team: "This will be a huge boost to our team. Look at car 'a' and car 'b' - they were fantastic. He's a large reason for that other team's success."

Note: this does not apply to Adrian Newey.


You guys sure as hell said that about Pat Fry when he joined Ferrari after the MP4-24 stinker.

#442 mlsnoopy

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 09:32

For a lot of people, the logic goes something like this:

- Works for a rival team: "Eh, that guy isn't anything special. Look at car 'x' and car 'y' - they didn't do well. He doesn't even have that big a role as 'z' is the more important guy there."

- Moves to your team: "This will be a huge boost to our team. Look at car 'a' and car 'b' - they were fantastic. He's a large reason for that other team's success."

Note: this does not apply to Adrian Newey.


But even the worst car was still the 3rd best car on the grid.

#443 Juggles

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 12:53

Well, in general, when you mention the top 4 teams I think you have concede that said teams are Red Bull, McLaren, Ferrari, Lotus - not necessarily in that order. Just looking at the final standings last year (CC) Red Bull : 460, Ferrari : 400, McLaren : 378, Lotus : 303, and ... Mercedes : 142. I'm not saying that the "past equals the future", but, let's face it - lumping the 5th place car from last year in with teams that doubled and trebled their points? I think it is optimistic, in spite of what testing suggests. You also point out that "McLaren never Fails to fail". Well - it's the sort of failure that most teams dream of... 3rd with drivers 4th and 5th in 2012, 2nd in 2011, with drivers 2nd and 5th, 2nd in 2010 with drivers 4th and 5th, 5th in 2009 with drivers 5th and 12th, 2nd in 2008 with drivers 1st and 7th.... and this qualifies as "never failing to fail". OK - Fair enough. Mercedes? 2010 : 4th with drivers 7th and 9th, 2011 4th, with drivers 7th and 8th, 2012, 5th, with drivers 9th and 13th.

This is what puzzles me - I think Lewis fans are fed up with McLaren because of the expectation/disappointment (so close and yet so far syndrome), but now that Lewis is moving to Mercedes, we have a thread asking what the chances are of him winning the WDC, and (some) people are optimistic? The best position a Mercedes driver has ever finished (in the modern era) is 7th - and yet, Lewis is going to jump into the car, it's going to shed all it's faults from last year, it will suddenly be as fast (or almost) as all the top cars, and it will yield an extra 150 - to 200 points for Lewis than it did for Rosberg last year (it will need to for him to win the WDC)?

I just don't think it's going to happen. Mercedes would have to make massive gains on the 4 cars in front of them if they are to beat them all - this is unlikely to happen in a year where there are no major rules changes to hobble the top teams. The new team members that Mercedes have or are hiring have not had a chance to settle in yet and "gel" - neither have they had the chance to make any real contributions to this years car. Certainly, Mercedes has the space to improve this year - but the WDC? It's a pipe dream.


This is a good post and a much needed reality check. Testing was encouraging but it has morphed the expectations of some Hamilton fans far too much.

My hope is still a solid year with no tyre trouble, some podiums and a win. To think of the WDC before the season even begins is just asking to be disappointed, and as far as I'm concerned Mercedes remain guilty until proven innocent considering their record over the last few years.

Even if by some remarkable turnaround the Mercedes is right at the front and Hamilton manages to win the championship, anyone predicting that outcome at this stage is still jumping the gun.

Edited by Juggles, 11 March 2013 - 12:54.


#444 Masenco

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 13:13

This is a good post and a much needed reality check. Testing was encouraging but it has morphed the expectations of some Hamilton fans far too much.

My hope is still a solid year with no tyre trouble, some podiums and a win. To think of the WDC before the season even begins is just asking to be disappointed, and as far as I'm concerned Mercedes remain guilty until proven innocent considering their record over the last few years.

Even if by some remarkable turnaround the Mercedes is right at the front and Hamilton manages to win the championship, anyone predicting that outcome at this stage is still jumping the gun.


I have not seen anyone thus far predicting that Lewis will win the championship.
On the contrary, I think the vast majority of people here are in agreeance with you regarding that they want a solid season with no tyre troubles, some podiums and a couple of wins- thing is though, that that is enough to put someone in the title race!


#445 Juggles

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 13:29

I have not seen anyone thus far predicting that Lewis will win the championship.
On the contrary, I think the vast majority of people here are in agreeance with you regarding that they want a solid season with no tyre troubles, some podiums and a couple of wins- thing is though, that that is enough to put someone in the title race!


Neither have I, I was premeditating it.

You're right to bring up being "in the title race;" obviously that's a very different question to "winning the 2013 WDC." I don't think a Raikkonen-style season is out of the question by any means; an Alonso one might be a bridge too far because that relied on an awful lot of circumstance.

#446 Seanspeed

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 13:35

You guys sure as hell said that about Pat Fry when he joined Ferrari after the MP4-24 stinker.

I've never said anything like that, sorry.

#447 slmk

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 13:35

This is a good post and a much needed reality check. Testing was encouraging but it has morphed the expectations of some Hamilton fans far too much.

My hope is still a solid year with no tyre trouble, some podiums and a win. To think of the WDC before the season even begins is just asking to be disappointed, and as far as I'm concerned Mercedes remain guilty until proven innocent considering their record over the last few years.

Even if by some remarkable turnaround the Mercedes is right at the front and Hamilton manages to win the championship, anyone predicting that outcome at this stage is still jumping the gun.


The analysis is deeply flawed - historical results are not always good predictors of future performance - look at McLaren from 2008 to 2009, 2009 to 2010, Ferrari (likewise) and from 2010 to 2011, Honda to Brawn, Brawn to Mercedes W01, RB from 2010 to 2011 / 2011 to 2012, Lotus from 2011 to 2012, etc.

Teams move up and down, and tend to do so even more if their previous car was deeply flawed, which was the case of McLaren / Ferrari in 2009, and Mercedes in 2012.

Using past performance to predict future performance is very, very narrow-minded.

Edited by slmk, 11 March 2013 - 13:36.


#448 slmk

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 13:35

I've never said anything like that, sorry.


I meant "Ferrari fans"

#449 Seanspeed

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 13:40

I meant "Ferrari fans"

So you're agreeing with me, then?

#450 HoldenRT

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 13:47

I hope for Mercedes and Lewis' sake.. that the Merc IS as fast as it seems, becuase it seems a lot of people have high expectations now. Where as before the car was launched.. they didn't. And winter testing is a very poor judge and even the teams themselves don't trully know where they stand.

Keep in mind I want to see Mercedes faster this season.. to see Lewis have a chance to battle Alonso, Vettel, Button etc.

The reaction to some of their times has been surprising though. Everyone says in advance.. testing is hard to make conclusions.. and then they make conclusions anyway. :lol:

edit - What's also funny.. is that I never thought that Lewis' move was a bad one. I was excited about it.. and didn't necessarily think that the car would be poor. But now after testing.. I am on the opposite side of the fence.. thinking that Mercedes won't be as strong as people think they are. It seems no matter what happens.. when it comes to Lewis or his car.. I am always on the opposite side to popular opinion.

Edited by HoldenRT, 11 March 2013 - 13:51.