135 replies to this topic

[mattferg]

Let's look purely at statistics. How many times did Vettel finish behind Webber in races that both drivers finished? 5 times

And Hamilton behind Button? 3 times

And Räikkönen behind Grosjean? 2 times

And it should not come as a surprise that Massa never finished ahead of Alonso, but had he been allowed to, if I remember correctly, he would have done it at least twice.


Please try harder.

Considering this excludes when Hamilton crashed out and ended his race because of his own actions, and also excludes when other drivers hampered Vettel's race but he continued, it's completely biased. You have to include where they were running when their car died, and also include their retirements if it was their fault. And take into account whether they were running lower due to another pit stop thanks to someone else. Stop using a biased comparison to support your world view.

[Jovanotti]

Considering this excludes when Hamilton crashed out and ended his race because of his own actions, and also excludes when other drivers hampered Vettel's race but he continued, it's completely biased. You have to include where they were running when their car died, and also include their retirements if it was their fault. And take into account whether they were running lower due to another pit stop thanks to someone else. Stop using a biased comparison to support your world view.

I can't believe I'm actually getting involved here, but just a small tip: he wasn't the one who started spitting around the biased crap you talk about.

And we're off.

Edited by Jovanotti, 09 February 2013 - 09:30.

[aditya-now]

Cannot decide between RBR and McLaren, but those would be my bet. That said, Lotus could well be up there, and so could Ferrari. The poll should have a "clueless" option.

From what we have seen so far it is

Red Bull
McLaren
Ferrari
Lotus
Force India
Sauber
Toro Rosso
Mercedes

but that is only the cards they have shown so far. Come the updates in Barcelona the picture might change.

Also, "fastest" in terms of one lap speed or longer stints?

[goingthedistance]

I think we have 2011 mark II on our hands.

Lotus are quick but won't keep up development. McLaren will win some races, and maybe Alonso will too. But the Red Bull will be out in front on most tracks, with Vettel in the ascendancy.

[mattferg]

I can't believe I'm actually getting involved here, but just a small tip: he wasn't the one who started spitting around the biased crap you talk about.

And we're off.

I'm biased? Because I was defending 4 drivers from yet another "Kimi is the saviour" post on Autosport? Surrrrree. Especially as you wouldn't be biased towards Kimi at all, when everything you've recently posted is about Lotus and he's listed as your favourite driver.

-doesn't even bother to construct a counter-argument, just calls me biased. How typical.

Yawn.

Edited by mattferg, 09 February 2013 - 09:37.

[Jovanotti]

I'm biased? Because I was defending 4 drivers from yet another "Kimi is the saviour" post on Autosport? Surrrrree.

-doesn't even bother to construct a counter-argument, just calls me biased. How typical.

Yawn.

You accused people of using biased arguments, although they were the ones bringing a bit of perspective to the discussions, maybe not perfectly accurate, but definitely more than the moron that started the argument. Just sayin.

another "Kimi is the saviour" post

This is Yawn.

Edited by Jovanotti, 09 February 2013 - 09:39.

[kedia990]

IMO that fast lap from Jenson was a mistake. They took a little bit of fuel out, and the car turned into a monster. With no setup work having been done, there's no way they would have been expecting that.

I think they made sure that they were well fuelled up for the rest of the test, no point in letting others know the true pace.

I just hope they don't blow it this year.

This. On none of the other days did McLaren's time feature in the top 3. A 1:18.8 on a green track with hard tyres and absolutely minimal, if not none in the way of performance-oriented setup work; they gave away a lot.

[mattferg]

You accused people of using biased arguments, although they were the ones bringing a bit of perspective to the discussions. Just sayin.


This is Yawn.

I could say "Vettel was on top of the standings therefore he took the most out of his car out of any driver" but it'd be another inaccurate perspective. You can't just rule out a whole bunch of statistics because it doesn't complement your favourite. Sorry.

Edited by mattferg, 09 February 2013 - 09:44.

[Jovanotti]

You can't just rule out a whole bunch of statistics because it doesn't complement your favourite.

I'd agree with that of course. My whole point was that you kick the dog and mean the master (although the master actually figures in your sig).

Edited by Jovanotti, 09 February 2013 - 10:02.

[svalgis]

it's safe to say that by australia we will know for sure and all this discussion about how to determine the fastest car will abruptly stop, right? RIGHT?

pointless.

[Wander]

I was not intending to be biased! It is just a statistic! Of course it is not equally fair towards everyone, cause it did not take retirements into account! I could have done that, but it would have been much more time consuming, and would have still supported my point just the same. When I posted that, my thinking was not "how can I make one driver look better than the others", It was simply to point out that statistically Kimi "the saviour" did not get beaten by Grosjean on "far more occasions" than any of the other top drivers.

The only part where that claim would have some credibility is, as I hinted earlier, qualifying, but that number is also similar to Vettel.

And I am not taking a dig at Vettel here either. He destroyed Webber on the second half of the season, no question.

And to do a similar statistic just on a number of mistakes, I don't actually know how you could do that properly. What is considered a mistake by a driver? If someone can do that research and can somehow make a good argument for one of the top drivers making considerably more mistakes than some other, I would be interested to see that. However, I still doubt that Kimi "the saviour" would come out on top in that statistic.

All I want to voice here is that you can't find proof to make a sound basis towards the claim that Kimi "the saviour" made far more mistakes, or got beaten on far more occasions by his team mate, than the other top drivers.

Edited by Wander, 09 February 2013 - 10:09.

[Music Lover]

This. On none of the other days did McLaren's time feature in the top 3. A 1:18.8 on a green track with hard tyres and absolutely minimal, if not none in the way of performance-oriented setup work; they gave away a lot.

Why is it bad to reveal the cars speed?
Aren't all team just focusing on improving their own car regardless of other cars speed?
And regardless of other cars speed, all teams tries to find items to copy.

All in all, why sandbagging?
Should it not be easier to enhance quali performance if you actually try to run light?

[mattferg]

I'd agree with that of course. My whole point was that you kick the dog and mean the master (although the master actually figures in your sig).

I just try to dissuade all fanboys, whether they be Alonso ones like Kingshark, or Kimi ones. I'm not afraid to admit I'm a Vettel fan but I hold him to the same standards as every other driver.

[ZZei]

I already have. Raikkonen lost multiple races where Lotus was often considerably quicker than anyone else, such as in Bahrain and Hungary.

On far more occasions than either of the other three happened.

Funny how the supposed "troll" is the only one who hasn't bothered countering troll comments.

Eeh, considerably quicker? At bahrain vettel qualified on pole and controlled the race pretty much, bar the few laps where raikkonen actually was faster. And you could argue lotus messed up raikkonens qualify, as one engineer took credit for the racetactic . Even in bahrain hamilton said he wasnt pushing as hard as he could in hungary as it's pretty much impossible to overtake without massive advantage.

And hamilton got beaten by button more than once, as did alonso by massa. I guess the points must be lying and grosjean actually was pretty even with raikkonen

Edited by ZZei, 09 February 2013 - 10:40.

[H2H]

I think we straying a bit from the topic...

The poll should be closed before the testing in Barcelona, so far almost 250 members have voted.

Edited by H2H, 09 February 2013 - 10:56.

[olliek88]

This. On none of the other days did McLaren's time feature in the top 3. A 1:18.8 on a green track with hard tyres and absolutely minimal, if not none in the way of performance-oriented setup work; they gave away a lot.

What did they give away? That they might have a fast car? That's not something the other teams would be surprised about, all the teams check each other's cars out regardless of it being a front runner or a midfield team, just look at some of the Sauber influenced designs that have appeared on the Red Bull in the last 12 months.

[Mc_Silver]

I think:

McLaren/Red Bull
Lotus
Ferrari
Mercedes
Sauber
Force India
Toro Rosso

[BernieEc]

I honestly think the Merc is right up there. They might not be the fastest but I suspect they are in the mix.

[Smile17]

The first few races will probably be chaos again, with one team after another appearing to be fastest. After this all settles down RB will most likely be the team to beat again.

Predictable, I know. Could be Redbull's last year of dominance though, after 2013 nothing is guaranteed. Vettel will be desperate to take his 4th.

[DutchQuicksilver]

If I had to rank them bases on total package, my guess at the moment would be:

1. McLaren
2. Red Bull
3. Ferrari
4. Lotus
5. Mercedes
6. Force India
7. Sauber
8. Toro Rosso
9. Caterham
10. Marussia

Not counting Williams, as they haven't used their new car yet.

[rijole1]

I voted unwillingly for Ferrari. Fastest time under the week and totally different feeling about they car compared last years test start.
Of course, times doesn't mean anything in test's but they do not seem to have last years start problems.
Last year they developed the car to be one of the top ones in the end of the 2012. So good start this year can mean a winning car in the end of 2013

McLaren seems also fast, Red Bull is going to be as usual.
And Sauber and Force India can be real surprises.

I hope for Lotus - but I do not think they're going to be the fastest - but maybe the most consistent?

But, I'm far from expert - little facts, a lot of feelings in my 'analysis'

[apoka]

I think it will be very close with stable regulations. McLaren looks best to me so far by a small margin if I had to make a guess. I wouldn't be surprised if there is no consensus on what the fastest car was even after we have seen all races in 2013.

[Anderis]

Lap times from Jerez clearly show that Williams has the fastest car in 2013.

[kankshitbharos]

I just try to dissuade all fanboys, whether they be Alonso ones like Kingshark, or Kimi ones. I'm not afraid to admit I'm a Vettel fan but I hold him to the same standards as every other driver.

Calm down guys, do not feed the troll (kingshark). You guys misunderstood each other just because of 1 troll.

Lets keep this thread clean!!

[BillBald]

Why is it bad to reveal the cars speed?
Aren't all team just focusing on improving their own car regardless of other cars speed?
And regardless of other cars speed, all teams tries to find items to copy.

All in all, why sandbagging?
Should it not be easier to enhance quali performance if you actually try to run light?

Do you think that the other teams's would just carry on regardless, if a car seems to be a lot faster than they themselves are expecting to be, with their current upgrade plan? Some teams might, but I'm pretty sure the top teams would have a rethink.

What did they give away? That they might have a fast car? That's not something the other teams would be surprised about, all the teams check each other's cars out regardless of it being a front runner or a midfield team, just look at some of the Sauber influenced designs that have appeared on the Red Bull in the last 12 months.

It makes it much easier to a team to know whose car they should focus most attention on, if there is a car which is clearly fastest. Most teams leave it as late as they can to show their true pace, so that even if the opposition copies them, the updates will have to be tested on Fridays, not in winter testing.

[HoldenRT]

It's very hard to define fastest car in the last few seasons. It's not like it used to be when there were tyre changes and lower fuel, so cars could run at optimum speed for the entire GP. When there were different engines, more in season testing, more upgrades etc.

Even in 2009 or 2010, it was easier to see when cars had an advantage.

These days, it really is like a spec series. You have Williams winning races, or Mercedes and people like Perez having the right strategy and having a faster pace than Hamilton in a McLaren.

It's more about having 2, 3 or 4 cars (8 drivers).. have similar paced cars.. but having characteristics in their setup.. and in the car itself.. that can sometimes suit a track more than others.

When they hit the sweet spot, and have clean strategies and no incidents.. they win. But for example.. if Vettel wins the race.. you can't say that you could put Hamilton in the same car and that he'd win. F1 isn't so simple anymore.

These days F1 seems to be as much about characteristics of car and track.. and the driver setup more than any car advantages. One has better braking.. one has more top speed.. one is harder on the tyres.. one is faster in high speed corners.. one has better traction.. etc etc. And if you make one big mistake on setup or in the race.. and another car can win.. but it doesn't mean that car was faster. Alonso for example.. he puts together these really consistant runs.. on race after race of podiums and the occasional win, and puts himself in championship contention.. but it's really hard to say how Hamilton or Vettel would go in the same car. In early qualifying stages or practice, the car seems slower.. but even on those weekends.. he will put purple sectors in right before his first pitstop.. showing that the car has ridiculously good race pace on a worn tyre.. where as the Redbull or McLaren will have nothing left in the tyre at that same stage.

It's just really hard to compare these days.

And going into 2013.. it will probably be more of the same. It will probably be even more compressed again. The rules are more stable this season, than last. And it's a pattern that seems to get stronger and stronger every season.

It's hard to imagine.. that there won't be races.. where Redbull is most suited.. or tracks where McLaren is most suited. Or where Ferrari are most suited. The most interesting thing is to see where Lotus and Mercedes will be.

It's hard to see Hamilton not being towards the front somewhere. But it's also hard to imagine him fighting for wins beating 6 cars in those other teams. The first few races will be a bit random but by Spain.. you'd expect that there is some patterns that emerge. And it's hard to see Redbull, Ferrari or McLaren struggling.

I expect the race pace of the top teams to be even closer this season. So it will probably come down, once again to traffic and race strategy and the drivers making the most of their opportunities. I don't think there will be 'faster' cars.. just cars that are faster in different areas.

[Kelateboy]

Marussia has 13 votes!

[kedia990]

These days F1 seems to be as much about characteristics of car and track.. and the driver setup more than any car advantages. One has better braking.. one has more top speed.. one is harder on the tyres.. one is faster in high speed corners.. one has better traction.. etc etc. And if you make one big mistake on setup or in the race.. and another car can win.. but it doesn't mean that car was faster. Alonso for example.. he puts together these really consistant runs.. on race after race of podiums and the occasional win, and puts himself in championship contention.. but it's really hard to say how Hamilton or Vettel would go in the same car. In early qualifying stages or practice, the car seems slower.. but even on those weekends.. he will put purple sectors in right before his first pitstop.. showing that the car has ridiculously good race pace on a worn tyre.. where as the Redbull or McLaren will have nothing left in the tyre at that same stage.

Thats a brilliant observation regarding several of Alonso's drives in 2012, most noticeably in Monaco. In the first part of the first stint (I think), Alonso drove INCREDIBLY slowly, backing up the entire field (including Massa I think), and was I think a second a lap off Hamilton's pace, who was pulling away from him. Everyone, including the commentators thought that Alonso had a problem or was in general slow or suffering from excessive tyre wear and whatnot. However, when the pitstop window opened, Alonso magically raised his speed, setting consecutive fastest laps, purples on every sector. After the pitstops were complete, Alonso had jumped Hamilton.

This, however, I dont think is a feature of the Ferrari. Its how Alonso drives, (excessively) conserving tyres in the initial part of the stint, and smashing the lap charts near about when the pit window is approaching. And it works. I just don't know why others havent noticed this and why they aren't mirroring it, coz it works really well for Alonso. And the part about the car having ridiculously good race pace on a worn tyre - the fact is, the tyre isn't worn, because Alonso has done such a fantastic job of conserving the tyre initially.

Would just like to close by saying that I'm not an Alonso fan, despite how my words may sound.

[mattferg]

Thats a brilliant observation regarding several of Alonso's drives in 2012, most noticeably in Monaco. In the first part of the first stint (I think), Alonso drove INCREDIBLY slowly, backing up the entire field (including Massa I think), and was I think a second a lap off Hamilton's pace, who was pulling away from him. Everyone, including the commentators thought that Alonso had a problem or was in general slow or suffering from excessive tyre wear and whatnot. However, when the pitstop window opened, Alonso magically raised his speed, setting consecutive fastest laps, purples on every sector. After the pitstops were complete, Alonso had jumped Hamilton.

This, however, I dont think is a feature of the Ferrari. Its how Alonso drives, (excessively) conserving tyres in the initial part of the stint, and smashing the lap charts near about when the pit window is approaching. And it works. I just don't know why others havent noticed this and why they aren't mirroring it, coz it works really well for Alonso. And the part about the car having ridiculously good race pace on a worn tyre - the fact is, the tyre isn't worn, because Alonso has done such a fantastic job of conserving the tyre initially.

Would just like to close by saying that I'm not an Alonso fan, despite how my words may sound.

That's because it really isn't how Alonso drives, and is a feature of the F2012.

[scheivlak]

In the first part of the first stint (I think), Alonso drove INCREDIBLY slowly, backing up the entire field (including Massa I think), and was I think a second a lap off Hamilton's pace, who was pulling away from him.

Not true. He was never a second off Hamilton's pace and he was right on Lewis' tail for quite a few laps when Lewis pitted http://forix.autospo...&...120006&c=25

[noikeee]

Voted Red Bull, they've been quietly impressive and "reports say" they're more planted in the corners than the rest and that's what F1 is all about nowadays really.

That being said there's multiple positive signs for McLaren (THAT lap the first day), Ferrari (much happier than last year, quickest time of the week), and Lotus (topped 2 days and always amongst the front, Romain was super happy). So I think it may be close between all 4 teams.

[sopa]

Marussia has 13 votes!

Fifth fastest car going by poll. Only thing we can conclude is that they are badly held back by their drivers then.

[HoldenRT]

That point about Alonso and Monaco it's just really hard sometimes.. to isolate what is the driver and what is the car. Sometimes it's both. And what another driver like Hamilton or Vettel would do in the same Ferrari.

The same sort of thing is with Perez. Who knows if anyone else could make those strategies work like the one he used in Monza. It will be very interesting to see how Perez goes in McLaren and if he has the same habit of going long or opposite strategies and showing the same ability to make the tyre last. It was a characteristic of the Sauber car, but Perez seemed to be able to do extroadinary things with it at times.

Edited by HoldenRT, 12 February 2013 - 00:34.

[Seanspeed]

That's because it really isn't how Alonso drives, and is a feature of the F2012.

Bit of both. The F2012 didn't have great tire wear. Alonso learned to get the most out of them by being extra conservative early on. He did this quite a lot and to good success. I dont remember one time when Massa did anything notably comparable.

Anyways, it aint worth much, but my instinct right now tells me:

Mclaren
Red Bull

Lotus

Ferrari
Sauber
Force India

Mercedes

Toro Rosso

Caterham
Marussia

[Skinnyguy]

Bit of both. The F2012 didn't have great tire wear. Alonso learned to get the most out of them by being extra conservative early on. He did this quite a lot and to good success. I dont remember one time when Massa did anything notably comparable.

Indeed, Alonso understood it´s pointless following someone 7 tenths in front for a full stint around Monaco nowadays. Most of the time, you only have to go fast enough to avoid getting under pressure and not fall too much behind. Around pitstops is the only phase that matters there, it´s where you can gain the places, and it´s where you must push. And it´s not only Monaco, everywhere with not good spots to pass it can pay off. Räikkönen did the same around Australia in the first stint, and also around Hungary.

Of course to pull one of these strategies you must have a car that is able to take the tyres further into a stint than the rest.

[ChiltonsCats]

not sure from the first test, but Red Bull, McLaren and Ferrari all looked pretty handy, hoping McLaren have the edge so Button has a shout at the WDC this year! would love to see Mercedes and Lewis up there too but I think it's unlikely.