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Predict the starting grid, Australian GP edition.


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#51 study

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Posted 24 February 2013 - 20:18

Here's an average of all the testing positions so far, which I have done 1 to 22, I shall take this as my prediction.;)

1 - Raikkonen (Lotus)
2 - Vettel (Red Bull)
3 - Alonso (Ferrari)
4 - Rosberg (Mercedes)
5 - Button (McLaren)
6 - Grosjean (Lotus)
7 - Hamilton (Mercedes)
8 - number 2 driver (Force India)
9 - Ricciardo (Toro Rosso)
10 - Massa (Ferrari)
11 - Perez (McLaren)
12 - Webber (Red Bull)
13 - Hulkenberg (Sauber)
14 - Vergne (Toro Rosso)
15 - Gutierrez (Sauber)
16 - Maldonado (Williams)
17 - Bottas (Williams)
18 - di Resta (Force India)
19 - vd Garde (Caterham)
20 - Chilton (Marussia)
21 - Pic (Caterham)
22 - Razia (Marussia)



It wouldn't surprise me if that was closer then anything else anyone has put, but Webber, Perez and Massa are pretty shocking and Rosberg higher then I'd have thought

Edited by study, 24 February 2013 - 20:18.


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#52 eronrules

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Posted 24 February 2013 - 20:34

ok, here it goes (this is my realistic prediction, devoid of driver specific influences)

P1 Vettel - RBR
P2 Webber - RBR (if vettel is P1 then RB9 will be good)
P3 Perez - VMM (surprise!!!) (may switch places with alonso)
P4 Alonso - SF
P5 Button - VMM (may switch places with webber)
P6 Hamilton - MGP
P7 Kimi - Lotus (may switch places with romain/button)
P8 Rosberg - MGP
P9 Grosjean - Lotus (may switch places with kimi)
P10 Hulkenberg - Sauber
P11 Massa - SF (may switch places with either MGP)
P12 Maldonado - Williams (may switch places with hulkenberg)
P13 Bottas - Williams
P14 Paul DR - FI
P15 Daniel - STR
P16 sutil/bianchi - FI
P17 JE vergne - STR
P18 Esteban - Sauber (may switch with either STR)
P19 C pic - CT
P20 GVDG - CT
P21 Chilton - MR
P22 Razia - MR

Edited by eronrules, 24 February 2013 - 20:37.


#53 caso

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Posted 24 February 2013 - 21:46

P1 Button
P2 Rosberg
P3 Hamilton
P4 Alonso
P5 Vettel
P6 Perez
P7 Raikkonen
P8 Massa
P9 Webber
P10 Grosjean

#54 Massa_f1

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Posted 24 February 2013 - 22:31

P1 Button
P2 Vettel
P3 Grosjean
P4 Webber
P5 Perez
P6 Alonso
P7 Massa
P8 Raikkonen
P9 Hamilton
P10 Rosberg

#55 Niceone

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Posted 24 February 2013 - 22:43

1. Alonso
2. Massa
3. Grosjean
4. Vettel
5. Webber
6. Button
7. Hamilton
8. Perez
9. Hulkenberg
10. Rosberg

#56 charly0418

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Posted 24 February 2013 - 23:53

I'm sorry but LMAO at all the people thinking Perez is going to be nowhere in qualifying. If McLaren has a a top car he'll be top two rows.

Or well, not thinking he'll be nowhere, that's what the agenda says.



I agree, people need to realize the car is way more important than the driver. If Mclaren has a top 2 car he'll be a top 6 in qualification unless he has a major mistake. Oh well...

#57 charly0418

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Posted 24 February 2013 - 23:56

1- Perez
2- Button
3- Webber
4- Vettel
5- Massa
6- Grosjean
7- Alonso
8- Raikkonen
9- Hulkenberg
10-Hamilton
11-Rosberg
12-Maldonado
13-Gutierrez
14-Sutil
15-Di Resta
16-Bottas

Edited by charly0418, 25 February 2013 - 00:05.


#58 Seanspeed

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Posted 24 February 2013 - 23:58

Judgement is judgement, you sound like you assume I've bothered since. The point is if you know anything about guessing grids, it's never what you think it's gonna be. The Australian track is very very different to Barcelona and Jerez.

Guessing is guessing.

And you seem awfully proud of it, seeing how you have it in your sig.

Just sayin, guessing something as unpredictable as this is mostly luck. Brag about it, sure, but just dont pretend it lends your prediction of a Mercedes 1-2 anymore weight.



#59 ryan86

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Posted 25 February 2013 - 00:08

I agree, people need to realize the car is way more important than the driver. If Mclaren has a top 2 car he'll be a top 6 in qualification unless he has a major mistake. Oh well...


I guess not many people had Heidfeld (2011), Raikkonen (2012), Massa (200?) low down on their lists for those years, but there's usually at least one that has a disastrous sesson. Taking this into account, I thought that Perez was possibly the most likely candidate, but it's pure guesswork. As much as I wouldn't be surprised to see him out in Q2, I'd also not be surprised if he stuckit on the front row. If all five top teams are competitive, it does mean that the one of them would have to start 10th.

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#60 BigCHrome

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Posted 25 February 2013 - 00:09

1. Vettel
2. Webber
3. Alonso
4. Perez
5. Hamilton
6. Rosberg
7. Button
8. Grosjean
9. Maldonado
10. Massa

#61 Juggles

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Posted 25 February 2013 - 00:52

1. Vettel
2. Grosjean
3. Webber
4. Button
5. Raikkonen
6. Hamilton
7. Perez
8. Rosberg
9. Alonso
10. Hulkenberg

#62 weareracing

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Posted 25 February 2013 - 01:16

1.Vettel
2.Grosjean
3.Alonso
4.Button
5.Maldonado
6.Hamilton
7.Webber
8.Raikkonen
9.Massa
10.Hulkenberg
11.Rosberg
12.Perez
13.di Resta
14.Bottas
15.2nd Force India Driver
16.Ricciardo
17.Vergne
18.Guttierez
19.Pic
20.Van de Gaarde
21.Chilton
22.2nd Marussia Driver (Where is Luis Razia)
23.The Ghost of Kamui-san
24.The F1 auction winner

#63 Juan Kerr

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Posted 25 February 2013 - 01:33

Guessing is guessing.

And you seem awfully proud of it, seeing how you have it in your sig.

Just sayin, guessing something as unpredictable as this is mostly luck. Brag about it, sure, but just dont pretend it lends your prediction of a Mercedes 1-2 anymore weight.

There's more chance of it happening if I say so than the majority of people on here even though there are also plenty that also may predict more accurately than me, nothing bragging about that, it is a fact that I have a better idea than most albeit not all. The trouble is whenever anyone says anything like that with foundation you always get trolled by 'the little ones' because they feel insecure. I don't feel ashamed because there are people who know better than me also so why should they? The other thing is even if I was right I wouldn't get an apology or praise 'the little ones' would stay very quiet.
By the way if you put something on your signature it helps profile the poster it's not for bragging purposes.

#64 Seanspeed

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Posted 25 February 2013 - 04:10

There's more chance of it happening if I say so than the majority of people on here even though there are also plenty that also may predict more accurately than me, nothing bragging about that, it is a fact that I have a better idea than most albeit not all. The trouble is whenever anyone says anything like that with foundation you always get trolled by 'the little ones' because they feel insecure. I don't feel ashamed because there are people who know better than me also so why should they? The other thing is even if I was right I wouldn't get an apology or praise 'the little ones' would stay very quiet.
By the way if you put something on your signature it helps profile the poster it's not for bragging purposes.

I must assume you're joking.

It would be too tragic if you were being serious.

#65 Afterburner

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Posted 25 February 2013 - 05:13

Surprised to see how many people think Vettel is going to take pole... I really don't think it's that straightforward.

#66 Kingshark

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Posted 25 February 2013 - 05:54

Q1

22. Max Chilton
21. Giedo Van der Garde
20. Luiz Razia
19. Charles Pic
18. Jean Eric Vergne
17. Jules Bianchi

Q2

16. Daniel Ricciardo
15. Esteban Gutierrez
14. Paul di Resta
13. Nico Rosberg
12. Vallteri Bottas
11. Lewis Hamilton

Q3

10. Nico Hulkenberg
9. Pastor Maldonado
8. Mark Webber
7. Kimi Raikkonen
6. Felipe Massa
5. Sergio Perez
4. Romain Grosjean
3. Jenson Button
2. Sebastian Vettel
1. Fernando Alonso

#67 ChiltonsCats

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Posted 25 February 2013 - 06:34

1. Button
2. Alonso
3. Vettel
4. Perez
5. Raikonen
6. Hamilton
7. Massa
8. Di Resta
9. Bottas
10. Rosberg

#68 mattferg

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Posted 25 February 2013 - 06:50

Surprised to see how many people think Vettel is going to take pole... I really don't think it's that straightforward.


If the general qualifying pace hasn't changed all that much, and we take into account driver preferences/performances from the past few years, I can't look much further than either Vettel or Button taking pole. Vettel is likely to be in the fastest or second fastest car come Melbourne, same goes for Button, and both are known to be very good in Melbourne. Both are known to be better qualifiers than their teammates (Webber usually disappoints in his home circuit and Sergio's not known for quali performances).

Alonso isn't known for being a one lap specialist (has he ever gotten pole in Melbourne? Last time his team did in 2005 it was the other driver), he's more of a racecraft kind of driver, and unless the Mercedes has taken a big leap forward, I don't see them doing much better than last year in Australia, when Schumacher got 4th. The only wildcard is Lotus, and who the E21 suits better, as Raikkonen has gotten pole in Melbourne before, and Grosjean grabbed third last year. I don't see Sauber/FI/Williams jumping the top 5 for pole.

Edited by mattferg, 25 February 2013 - 06:51.


#69 Rybo

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Posted 25 February 2013 - 07:06

1. Vettel
2. Button
3. Alonso
4. Webber
5. Kimi
6. Perez
7. Hamilton
8. Massa
9. Grosjean
10. Rosberg
11. Maldonado
12. Hulk
13. Di Resta
14. Sutil
15. Bottas
16. Ricciardo
17. Gutierrez
18. JEV
19. Pic
20. Van der Garde
21. Chilton
22. Razia


#70 mattferg

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Posted 25 February 2013 - 07:12

I averaged out the qualifying results for the top driver in Melbourne for the entire length of this set of regulations (the past four years, three for Caterham and Marussia), used this to rank the teams in each qualifying 1-11, averaged out the position over the years, and got the following pecking order:

1.75 RBR
3.25 McLaren
3.5 Mercedes
4.5 Ferrari
4.5 Lotus
5.75 Williams
6.75 Sauber
7.5 Force India
7.5 Toro Rosso
10 Caterham
11 Marussia

For teams that were tied (Such as Ferrari and Lotus, and Force India and Toro Rosso) I took the highest qualifying position to decide which team went ahead. In the case of Ferrari and Lotus, this was both third, and as such I took the highest average qualifying position for both drivers, which in this case was Alonso 3rd and Massa 5th in 2010. For Force India and Toro Rosso the highest was 9th, for Force India in 2012.

Admittedly these results can be interpreted in a variety of ways, with certain teams changing drivers over the years, and as the results only take in the top driver, this can also skew the results. It also doesn't take into account the posibility of a team having a really-off year (such as Ferrari last year). In such cases where the teams are very close on average, such as McLaren and Mercedes, where both teams have an entirely different driver line-up to 2009, these could swap, and this also includes Lotus and Ferrari, who have almost entirely different line ups, and are tied on points.

Now obviously many will complain that I didn't include second driver results, so as such I added together the team's qualifying positions (e.g. if a team had a front-row lockout they got 3 points, a 9th and 10th would be 19 points, etc.), and then I used those numbers to rank the teams per year 1-11. If a team was tied on points I used the highest qualifying position for that team in that year. I then averaged out each year as before:

1.75 RBR
2.5 Mercedes
3.5 McLaren
4.25 Ferrari
6 Lotus
6.25 Williams
6.5 Sauber
6.75 Toro Rosso
7.5 Force India
10 Caterham
11 Marussia

Overall not too many changes - McLaren and Mercedes have swapped, Ferrari is now clear of Lotus, and Toro Rosso and Force India have swapped.

Interpret how you will! And yes, I've counted Brawn as Mercedes. I will not be making a calculation based on driver performances (ie using Jenson's results from Brawn and McLaren, Alonso's from Renault and Ferrari etc.) and will not be doing pre-2009 estimates. The reason for this is that only 7 drivers have records for the past four years in Melbourne, and I don't think pre-2009 data is relevant for team predictions.

Edited by mattferg, 25 February 2013 - 08:14.


#71 ICEBALL

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Posted 25 February 2013 - 07:44

1 Kimi Räikkönen
2 Fernando Alonso
3 Lewis Hamilton
4 Sebastian Vettel
5 Romain Grosjean
6 Felipe Massa
7 Nico Rosberg
8 Jenson Button
9 Sergio Perez
10 Pastor Maldonado


#72 NotSoSilentBob

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Posted 25 February 2013 - 12:41

1. Vettel
2. Webber
3. Alonso
4. Hamilton
5. Perez
6. Kimi
7. Grosjean
8. Button
9. Rosberg
10. Ricciardo

#73 mymemoryfails

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Posted 25 February 2013 - 23:54

Alonso on Pole in the Red Rocket..

Vettel spins out of Q1 and blames car.... Vettel complains his car is a pig and team have much work to do. Sticks to script all year . Everybody says RBR is a dog and Newey has lost it. Forum melts.


Grid?

Alonso
Massa
Grosjean
Hamilton
Perez
Raikkonen
Button
Webber
Rosberg
Hulkenberg
Maldonado
Ricciardo
Di Resta
etc

Edited by mymemoryfails, 25 February 2013 - 23:56.


#74 Grundle

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Posted 26 February 2013 - 00:28

1. Hamilton :wave:
2. Rosberg :wave:
3. Vettel
4. Alonso
5. Button :rolleyes:
6. Webber
7.Grosjean
8. Raikkonen
9. Perez :lol:
10. Hulk
11. Massa
12. Maldonado
13. Bottas
14. Di Resta
15. Sutil
16. Ricciardo
17. Vergne
18. Guttierez
19. Chilton
20. Pic
21. Van der Garde
22. Razia.



#75 Juan Kerr

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Posted 26 February 2013 - 00:45

Guessing is guessing.

And you seem awfully proud of it, seeing how you have it in your sig.

Just sayin, guessing something as unpredictable as this is mostly luck. Brag about it, sure, but just dont pretend it lends your prediction of a Mercedes 1-2 anymore weight.

Here's something for you to listen to that you don't need to assume, guess or 'seem'. I person who is more likely to predict something correctly compared to another person lends more weight to a prediction. It's a simple concept. I have a sneaky suspicion that the Mercs will do well at Melbourne especially in the hands of Hamilton and Rosberg, I don't expect to get it right every time but I'm pretty handy at working out the grid, I see you put your energy elsewhere.

#76 Juan Kerr

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Posted 26 February 2013 - 00:47

Why is there a distinct lack of Bianchi in the predictions BTW? What's this...the state of F1 is about the last test? How about Jerez??

#77 Shiroo

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Posted 26 February 2013 - 00:47

1. Hamilton :wave:
2. Rosberg :wave:
3. Vettel
4. Alonso
5. Button :rolleyes:
6. Webber
7.Grosjean
8. Raikkonen
9. Perez :lol:
10. Hulk
11. Massa
12. Maldonado
13. Bottas
14. Di Resta
15. Sutil
16. Ricciardo
17. Vergne
18. Guttierez
19. Chilton
20. Pic
21. Van der Garde
22. Razia.

RBR's drivers swap with Mercedes' drivers is confirmed?


#78 BernieEc

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Posted 26 February 2013 - 01:00

Surprised to see how many people think Vettel is going to take pole... I really don't think it's that straightforward.


do you think it will be webber then ? :)

#79 Grundle

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Posted 26 February 2013 - 01:07

RBR's drivers swap with Mercedes' drivers is confirmed?

Are you not very good at predictions, thats a bad one :rotfl:

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#80 lbennie

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Posted 26 February 2013 - 01:24

Surprised to see how many people think Vettel is going to take pole... I really don't think it's that straightforward.


I think, even if the rb9 is a couple of tenths off the pace, they have the drivers to compensate. 2 of the best qualifiers on the grid. Mark is sounding very comfortable in the car this year as well.


#81 HoldenRT

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Posted 26 February 2013 - 01:25

If degredation is a concern.. it's the first race.. so teams won't be taking many risks with setup. It will mean little to get pole and then drift backwards in the race.. and the optimum strategies and tyre wear on full race fuel will be unknown.. when in the warmer temperatures. Some of the cars that are capable of doing a very fast quali run might temper their setups a little bit.. just to be on the safe side.. and then gradually drift closer back to that after a few races.. once the tyres and race strategies are understood better. When there is 3-4 stops.. and high possibilty of safety cars.. getting pole doesn't mean much.

I could be wrong but I can't imagine any teams being much faster than the others.. and it being very close in qualifying and coming down to which drivers do the best job on the day. Redbull, McLaren and Alonso should be up there. Lotuses too.

Vettel
Alonso
Button
Webber
Kimi
Massa
Grosjean
Perez
Hamilton
Rosberg

Mercedes will probably be higher but I really have no idea where they could be. It's hard to see them ahead of Lotus though.. maybe in qualifying but Lotus will be strong in the races.

#82 MatthewRacing

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Posted 26 February 2013 - 13:15

1. Vettel
2. Grosjean
3. Massa
4. Alonso
5. Webber
6. Rosberg
7. Raikkonen
8. Hamilton
9. Maldonado
10. Ricciardo
11. Button
12. Perez
13. Hulkenberg
14. Bottas
15. Di Resta
16. Vergne
17. FI #2
18. Guiterrez
19. Chilton
20. Pic
21. van der Garde
22. Razia

#83 Lord_Shaitan

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Posted 26 February 2013 - 16:01

1. Vettel
2. Grosjean
3. Alonso
4. Button
5. Hamilton
6. Raikkonen
7. Webber
8. Massa
9. Rosberg
10. Hulkenberg

#84 jrg19

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Posted 26 February 2013 - 16:06

1. Grosjean
2. Button
3. Perez
4. Hamilton
5. Vettel
6. Rosberg
7. Alonso
8. Raikkonen
9. Massa
10. Webber

#85 MeatPopsicle

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Posted 26 February 2013 - 19:28

Drivers:

1. Vettel
2. Button
3. Perez
4. Hamilton
5. Webber
6. Rosberg
7. Grosjean
8. Alonso
9. Raikkonen
10. Massa

Teams:
1. Red bull
2. McLaren
3. Mercedes
4. Lotus
5. Ferrari
6. Sauber
7. Williams
8. Force India
9. Torro Rosso
10. Marrusia

#86 Anderis

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Posted 26 February 2013 - 20:01

At least 90% of predictions here are so boring. :yawnface: I'm quite sure there will be some surprises, there are always some in the opening races. Can't predict them, though. If I could, they wouldn't be surprises!

#87 sopa

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Posted 26 February 2013 - 20:27

Knocked out in Q1:

22. Chilton, Marussia. Nobody expects anything from him, so there it goes.
21. Razia, Marussia. Lack of testing hurts.
20. van der Garde, Caterham. Beats the Marussia duo barely.
19. Pic, Caterham. The only experienced bloke of the backmarker bunch, still far behind established teams.
18. Gutierrez, Sauber. Poor rookie gets shown up in his first ever F1 qualifying session.
17. Bianchi/Sutil, Force India. Just got back to F1, haven't settled in properly yet.

Q2, tension rises. Who is gonna drop the ball now? So here it goes:
16. Vergne, STR. The Frenchman was vowed to improve his qualifying in 2013. Still not good enough.
15. Bottas, Williams. The talented Finn is looking to make his mark, but makes a mistake on his last attempt.
14. Di Resta, Force India. An unspectacular lap.
13. Hulkenberg, Sauber. New to the team. Yet to perform at the maximum, Sauber struggled to heat up the tyres.
12. Ricciardo, STR. Great lap in front of his home crowd.
11. Raikkonen, Lotus. The competition for Q3 slots was so tight that Kimi just missed out. Maldonado just pipped him in the end with a superb flier.

Two Red Bulls, McLarens, Ferraris and Mercedes. Sole Lotus and Williams. And there they go for the last ten minute decisive session!

10th Perez, McLaren. The McLaren newcomer wanted to make his mark quickly in a top team, but slid wide on his lap and has to wait for a better race performance again.
9th Massa, Ferrari. The Brazilian is again narrowly left behind by tight competition.
8th Rosberg, Mercedes. Solid lap, but the German is not too happy about being behind his team-mate.
7th Maldonado, Williams. Another impressive performance by the Venezuelan on a street circuit. Remains to be seen if he can finish the race though...
6th Webber, Red Bull. The Melbourne curse carries on. Wasn't very comfortable on his last lap and as a result only 6th in that tight competition. Podium will be difficult.
5th Hamilton, Mercedes. The Briton is elated with his Mercedes debut. But it remains to be seen, what will the tyre wear tell us on race day...
4th Grosjean, Lotus. This man feels supremely comfortable at Albert Park. 3rd last year, today 4th.
3rd Alonso, Ferrari. The double WDC is happy with Ferrari's improved qualifying form. Still not good enough for the front row.
2nd Button, McLaren. A good lap, very good, but just misses out by 0.019 seconds.
1st Vettel, Red Bull. In a battle of invisible margins, Seb pulls one out of the bag on his final attempt again.

Edited by sopa, 26 February 2013 - 20:28.


#88 kenkip

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Posted 26 February 2013 - 22:03

Interesting thread,I honestly cant predict till the after the third test.
I have a theory,not sure if it is a stupid one or not,but if the tyre degradation is as bad as it seems,will we be seeing more top teams(RBR,ferrari,macca,lotus) sacrificing running in Q3 so as to save an extra set of options so as to allow the drivers to push right from the start and try and jump the cars ahead of them at the first round of pitstops?
eg Button who knows how to look after his tyres will be allowed to set Q3 time and conserve them as long as he can while on the other hand Perez may sacrifice a Q3 time and use his natural speed to jump the traffic ahead of him.
Same case to Vettel and Webber,Seb knows how to look after his tyres and is a good qualifier so may be allowed a Q3 run and Mark being given the other strategy.

#89 Ragingjamaican

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Posted 26 February 2013 - 22:05

You might just lose the extra grip and advantage trying to gain those positions back that you lost in qualifying.

#90 BigCHrome

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Posted 26 February 2013 - 22:15

Yep, Australia is a hard track to pass on. If you don't set a time at all you're going to be behind other cars who went out on hards and will lose tons of time trying to pass them.

#91 kenkip

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Posted 26 February 2013 - 22:17

You might just lose the extra grip and advantage trying to gain those positions back that you lost in qualifying.

True,but I was thinking that after two or more hard qualy runs on fast degrading options,a driver on fresh primes or options may have a significantly higher advantage than a driver who has set a Q3 time.
Remember also this are the top of the cream drivers doing this,eg if Alonso goes for this strategy,makes those demonic starts and 1st laps he is known for,wont he have a slight edge come the first round of pitstops?

#92 kenkip

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Posted 26 February 2013 - 22:22

Yep, Australia is a hard track to pass on. If you don't set a time at all you're going to be behind other cars who went out on hards and will lose tons of time trying to pass them.

I assume you are talking about drivers who went out in Q2?

#93 FenderJaguar

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Posted 26 February 2013 - 23:19

Vettel
Webber
Alonso
Raikkonen
Massa
Bottas
Hamilton
Button
Grosjean
Hulkenberg



#94 Juan Kerr

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Posted 02 March 2013 - 13:40

Anyone else got any different predictions to last week?

#95 olliek88

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Posted 02 March 2013 - 13:47

Anyone else got any different predictions to last week?


Good question, i'd be tempted to drop JB a little further down but other than that i'm happy-ish. Maybe drop the Lotus boys down a touch too but otherwise i don't see it too differently inspite of Merc's good pace, they have looked better than they actually are during the last couple of pre seasons.

Edited by olliek88, 02 March 2013 - 13:48.


#96 race addicted

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Posted 02 March 2013 - 14:18

Anyone else got any different predictions to last week?


Nope.

...or perhaps I'd bump the McLaren's down one spot.

#97 Jimisgod

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Posted 03 March 2013 - 12:54

Anyone else got any different predictions to last week?


Razia iss going to qualify a lot lower than we thought last week. :kiss:

#98 Owen

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Posted 03 March 2013 - 14:22

@LeeMcKenzieF1: Gary Anderson tells me he has calculated the grid for Melbourne! Place your bets please! Or look on BBC website later this week!

Should cause some debate :stoned:

#99 ssetem

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Posted 03 March 2013 - 15:10

gary anderson such a knowitall seriously, at launches he says mclaren is best, ferrari sucks :S

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#100 olliek88

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Posted 03 March 2013 - 15:23

"Apparently" Gary Anderson's knowledge is pretty limited to say to the least, as far as aerodynamics are concerned anyway.