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End of Season Prediction Graphs


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#51 turssi

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Posted 18 June 2013 - 14:23

Still can't help feeling like your graph is a bit off regarding Kimi and Fernando so far this season. After Spain RAI seems to be closer to ALO than to VET, even though the actual gaps were 15 points and 4 points, respectively. Furthermore, RAI and ALO seem to almost equal after Monaco, even though they really had between them a gap bigger than what they had after the season opener (but the graph certainly does not convey that).


Thanks for pointing this out quaint. I double checked the data in Excel and I had marked only 15 points for RAI from China and Bahrain. Now it's corrected with 18 points for both races:

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#52 turssi

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Posted 20 July 2013 - 18:12

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Updating the graphs after a 30-day break.

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Comparing to last year Torsion & co style Sebastians superiority is pretty clear!

#53 turssi

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Posted 20 July 2013 - 18:20

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Looking at the top-4 constructors one could say that RBR and Ferrari have been the most stable performers, while Merc and Lotus have had more ups and downs. Still it's RBR who performs at the highest level!

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About the rest it's starting to look like an interesting threesome between FI, McLaren and Toro Rosso. Who would have thought?

#54 turssi

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Posted 20 July 2013 - 18:28

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The best pilots so at the moment are Sebastian and Fernando, followed by a closely matched bunch of Lewis, Mark, NicoR and Kimi.

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Romain and Felipe lead the 2nd class group. Here it's worth looking at Jenson's curve that is the most stable of them all. Might it be that he is performing as well as it is possible with that McLaren of his?

#55 Afterburner

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Posted 21 July 2013 - 01:53

Neat stuff. :up: I guess that explains why so many people think Vettel's got it in the bag this year, even though I think it's far from over.

#56 turssi

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Posted 21 July 2013 - 11:52

Neat stuff. :up: I guess that explains why so many people think Vettel's got it in the bag this year, even though I think it's far from over.


It's far from over for sure. And thinking about it: Is there really something that prevents Ferrari, Mercedes or even Lotus from realizing a similar 2nd half of the season spurt that saw Vettel/RBR rise to take the championship starting from Singapore 2012?

#57 rasul

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Posted 21 July 2013 - 12:26

It's far from over for sure. And thinking about it: Is there really something that prevents Ferrari, Mercedes or even Lotus from realizing a similar 2nd half of the season spurt that saw Vettel/RBR rise to take the championship starting from Singapore 2012?

Nothing. But I guess people have a lot of faith in Vettel/RBR. Even those people who hate them.

Reason for edit: typo.

Edited by rasul, 22 July 2013 - 18:55.


#58 RayInTorontoCanada

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Posted 22 July 2013 - 15:58

Nothing. Bad I guess people have a lot of faith in Vettel/RBR. Even those people who hate them.


If you look at 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 and so far 2013, Vettel is making less and less mistakes too.

That means you need more DNFs (like Silverstone) from the car to off-set Vettel's lack of any notable mistakes.

#59 ashley313

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Posted 22 July 2013 - 17:33

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Updating the graphs after a 30-day break.

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Comparing to last year Torsion & co style Sebastians superiority is pretty clear!

Just a suggestion - I'd make Fernando red and Seb blue. Scrolling through this thread I kept thinking "How, no matter what has happened, does he have Fernando on top?!" Oh the power of Ferrari red on one's subconscious.

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#60 rasul

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Posted 22 July 2013 - 19:00

If you look at 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 and so far 2013, Vettel is making less and less mistakes too.

That means you need more DNFs (like Silverstone) from the car to off-set Vettel's lack of any notable mistakes.

True, Vettel makes very few mistakes with every year, but there are many races left. Bad luck might hit anyone, as it was proved in Silverstone. The championship is far from over.

#61 weltmeister1995

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Posted 22 July 2013 - 19:02

True, Vettel makes very few mistakes with every year, but there are many races left. Bad luck might hit anyone, as it was proved in Silverstone. The championship is far from over.

Not that far from over,if vettel wins the next 3 races its almost over!

#62 sopa

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Posted 22 July 2013 - 20:02

The big question is if someone can finally start beating Vettel in the likes of Korea, Abu Dhabi and India. If the form goes as in the past years, others must hope for incredible unluck for Vettel to catch up, because otherwise he would be winning all.

Suzuka for Vettel
2009 – P1, 2010 – P1, 2011 – P3 (drove conservatively to secure WDC), 2012 – P1

Korea
2010 – DNF from P1, 2011 – P1, 2012 – P1

India
2011 – P1, 2012 – P1

Abu Dhabi
2009 – P1, 2010 – P1, 2011 – DNF from P1, 2012 – P3 (after DQ in Q)

Four circuits. 9 wins out of 13 races. Two thirds (one in a heavily compromised race) and two DNFs from the lead.

Is it going to be a DNF/win story for Vettel yet again? Or can someone finally beat Red Bull in car development in Asia?
I left out Singapore, because it is a bit unique street circuit and Alonso beat Vettel there in 2010, Hamilton would have beaten in 2012 without car failure.

#63 Moore

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Posted 22 July 2013 - 22:41

The big question is if someone can finally start beating Vettel in the likes of Korea, Abu Dhabi and India. If the form goes as in the past years, others must hope for incredible unluck for Vettel to catch up, because otherwise he would be winning all.

Suzuka for Vettel
2009 – P1, 2010 – P1, 2011 – P3 (drove conservatively to secure WDC), 2012 – P1

Korea
2010 – DNF from P1, 2011 – P1, 2012 – P1

India
2011 – P1, 2012 – P1

Abu Dhabi
2009 – P1, 2010 – P1, 2011 – DNF from P1, 2012 – P3 (after DQ in Q)

Four circuits. 9 wins out of 13 races. Two thirds (one in a heavily compromised race) and two DNFs from the lead.

Is it going to be a DNF/win story for Vettel yet again? Or can someone finally beat Red Bull in car development in Asia?
I left out Singapore, because it is a bit unique street circuit and Alonso beat Vettel there in 2010, Hamilton would have beaten in 2012 without car failure.


Hamilton is also generally strong at Abu Dhabi and has qualified on the front row since the first race there. It was both Vettel and Hamilton up until last year, when Webber snook into P2.

Hamiltons results are as follow: 2009 - DNF from P2, 2010 - Second, 2011 - First, 2012 - DNF from P1.


#64 shonguiz

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Posted 23 July 2013 - 19:37

Don't you think a bayesian model would be better ?

#65 turssi

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Posted 23 July 2013 - 19:59

Don't you think a bayesian model would be better ?


I don't think it's possible to predict the future of an F1 season, so better is a difficult concept. I'm just doing this for fun and conversation. How would a Bayesian model be? It's from economics, right?


#66 turssi

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Posted 23 July 2013 - 20:14

Just a suggestion - I'd make Fernando red and Seb blue. Scrolling through this thread I kept thinking "How, no matter what has happened, does he have Fernando on top?!" Oh the power of Ferrari red on one's subconscious.


I'll fix the colors in the next update! Thanks for the comment, you got some serious eye for detail!

#67 shonguiz

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Posted 23 July 2013 - 21:36

I don't think it's possible to predict the future of an F1 season, so better is a difficult concept. I'm just doing this for fun and conversation. How would a Bayesian model be? It's from economics, right?

it's stat model that gives you probabilities based on past observations.

#68 wrcva

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Posted 23 July 2013 - 21:41

@turssi - Thx for the updates :up:

#69 turssi

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Posted 11 August 2013 - 23:36

Here are the Torsion style graphs after Hungary, no big changes.

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Seb still dominating, the three musketeers still in a tight fight for the left-over podiums slots. I'd say Lewis has the biggest potential for improvement with five races from 2012 where he score zero points!

#70 turssi

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Posted 11 August 2013 - 23:53

Looking at the constructors trend (I consider last 03 races as explained in the first post) we can see that the Merc uprising and the even more recent Lotus turn in form are starting to have an effect on RBR and Ferrari. Can they keep up the good work as the European season comes to an end?

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On the low end we see Williams curve finally rising its head and also McLaren is finally managing some results! Might they end up in front of FI after all?

Edited by turssi, 14 August 2013 - 23:38.


#71 turssi

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Posted 12 August 2013 - 00:09

Pilot situation is super-interesting! With the current trend Sebastian will be caught our by both Lewis and Kimi! But well... let's see if they can keep the challenge alive for the next two races before getting too exited...

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When talking about the WDC non-contenders we see that Romain is on a roll. Look's good for Lotus, but looks can be deceiving!

Edited by turssi, 14 August 2013 - 23:39.


#72 apoka

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Posted 12 August 2013 - 05:34

Hm, could there be a mistake in the plot for the pilots? Currently for the WDC battle based on the last 3 races I get:

Vettel: 172+((0+25+15)/3)*9 = 292
Kimi: 134+((10+18+18)/3)*9 = 272
Hamilton: 124+((12+10+25)/3)*9 = 265
Alonso: 133+((15+12+10)/3)*9 = 244

Also technically, the peak for Vettel at >550 points should not be possible. Even with 20 races, 500 points is the maximum.

I guess this is somehow related to the pre-season things you included, but those shouldn't play a role anymore after the first 3 races.


#73 turssi

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Posted 12 August 2013 - 23:10

Hm, could there be a mistake in the plot for the pilots? Currently for the WDC battle based on the last 3 races I get:

Vettel: 172+((0+25+15)/3)*9 = 292
Kimi: 134+((10+18+18)/3)*9 = 272
Hamilton: 124+((12+10+25)/3)*9 = 265
Alonso: 133+((15+12+10)/3)*9 = 244

Also technically, the peak for Vettel at >550 points should not be possible. Even with 20 races, 500 points is the maximum.

I guess this is somehow related to the pre-season things you included, but those shouldn't play a role anymore after the first 3 races.


There was indeed! I was always multiplying by 19 remaining races!!! My Excel-mistake was that I had locked both column and line for the remaining races... What a shame!

Thanks for reporting what your eyes picked up! I updated the latest graphs, the older ones I left without correction. Thanks again.

#74 apoka

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Posted 13 August 2013 - 05:00

There was indeed! I was always multiplying by 19 remaining races!!! My Excel-mistake was that I had locked both column and line for the remaining races... What a shame!

Thanks for reporting what your eyes picked up! I updated the latest graphs, the older ones I left without correction. Thanks again.

Did you correct all points in the graph? It still looks wrong that Vettel goes that high up initially and is now in a rapid decline.


#75 turssi

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Posted 14 August 2013 - 23:27

Did you correct all points in the graph? It still looks wrong that Vettel goes that high up initially and is now in a rapid decline.


I just insert the formula once and let Excel do the rest! Which clearly is not enough... The decline was because after each race the updated current total points were being considered for every race, even the ones that had happened... Fixed once more!

edit: At least those were systemical errors, resulting the graphs left side being tilted up as well as the whole graph floating higher than it should have. With this I mean that just the predicted points were wrong, but not the predicted positions. If that makes any sense!

Edited by turssi, 14 August 2013 - 23:43.


#76 turssi

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Posted 01 September 2013 - 23:30

Looking at the Torsion graphs Alonso is now the clear nr.2 as predicted for the WDC. Kimi took himself out and should drop behind Lewis soon if the Englishman can avoid all those non-finishes that plagued his end of 2012!

 

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According to these graphs, Sebastian needs to score 0 points three times in order to give the others a chance.



#77 turssi

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Posted 01 September 2013 - 23:35

For the constructors we can see RBR back at maximum performance now that the British catastrophe is more than 03 races back. Mercedes is now a predicted second for the WCC even if their pilots take turns in good performances... Ferrari and Lotus are tied for third. If Kimi is a little bit behind Fernando, then Romain is that much in front of Felipe :-)

 

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On the lower tier we have a happy surprise! Someone has managed to turn their season around! And that someone is McLaren! Congratulations!

 

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#78 turssi

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Posted 01 September 2013 - 23:38

Looking at the pilots Sebastian is at the top of the world (for the same reason as mentioned for RBR in the previous post). Lewis is doing a-ok. Kimi couldn't keep it up, while Mark and NicoR make somewhat decent back-up pilots.

 

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At the low-end Jenson looks to finish the season in front of Felipe and maybe soon even in front of Romain!

 

QMhnfRz.png



#79 wrcva

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Posted 07 September 2013 - 03:30

Looking at the Torsion graphs Alonso is now the clear nr.2 as predicted for the WDC. Kimi took himself out and should drop behind Lewis soon if the Englishman can avoid all those non-finishes that plagued his end of 2012!

 

Wod2lED.png

 

yQvJlQU.png

 

According to these graphs, Sebastian needs to score 0 points three times in order to give the others a chance.

 

Thanks for the updates  :up:

 

Starting to feel like the "correction factor" is working (with more realistic projection for Seb...  :p ) 



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#80 turssi

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 01:03

Now after Italy it's clear that Seb takes the WDC and Fernando takes 2nd. 3rd is still being disputed between Lewis and Kimi.

 

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#81 turssi

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 01:05

Constructor prediction after Italy:

 

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#82 turssi

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 01:07

Pilot prediction after Italy:

 

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#83 Tron

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 01:41

True, Vettel makes very few mistakes with every year, but there are many races left. Bad luck might hit anyone, as it was proved in Silverstone. The championship is far from over.

 

As a Tifosi, it's what I'm hoping for, or for at least the Alison effect to continue.

Spa and Monza have a sense of his involvement... I hope...



#84 joshb

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 08:18

I wouldn't rule Webber out of taking 3rd. He's only a few points behind Hamilton



#85 turssi

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 22:11

Yeah, 3rd is very much being disputed by Mark, Lewis, Kimi and NicoR.

7th is between Button, Felipe and Romain I would say!

#86 turssi

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Posted 22 September 2013 - 20:34

So the final leg of the 2013 season has started and below we take a look at the different predicted final season points (calculated after Singapore):

 

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#87 turssi

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Posted 06 October 2013 - 21:59

After Korea my prediction graphs have the following to say:

 

3bPf4lt.png

 

RBR has been dominating for a long time now. Expect them to win the constructors at about 500-600 final points. FI should beware of Sauber taking away their 6th, not think about McLaren taking 5th!

 

xetYeNG.png

 

Lot's of movers and shakers in the pilot's prediction. Now is not the time to shift focus if some teams keep attacking the 2013 season still!

 

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In the 'torsion' graph Fernando has secured 2nd place.

 

DG4M8UZ.png

 

Same goes for the same graph with a coefficient applied!



#88 turssi

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Posted 14 October 2013 - 00:05

Here are the torsion graphs after Japan:

 

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#89 turssi

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Posted 14 October 2013 - 00:13

With the traditional style prediction graphs after Japan:

 

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It's going to be tight between Ferrari, Mercedes and Lotus! Sauber is on the rise as well.

 

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About the pilots let's just say that Sebastian is in a class of its own.



#90 turssi

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Posted 28 October 2013 - 20:26

After India the set of graphs looks like this:

 

QSPyuxO.png

 

Could Merc take 2nd in WCC?

 

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Fernando and Kimi are suffering a down turn, NicoR is challenging Mark, while Felipe and Romain are in a sprint against each other!

 

MeCcHNP.png

 

Torsion's graphs say it's all over already :-)

 

x5aT3Po.png



#91 turssi

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Posted 07 November 2013 - 22:50

Update after Abu Dhabi:

 

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#92 apoka

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Posted 08 November 2013 - 09:57

Looks like an interesting fight for 3rd in the WDC.



#93 turssi

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Posted 18 November 2013 - 00:52

After USA the prediction states that the WCC is pretty much over:

 

lAykxBr.png

 

Sauber could not reach FI that could not reach McLaren. Ferrari was not able to defend against Mercedes, but against Lotus yes.

 

SnXOPi4.png

 

WDC is alive for 3rd (Lewis vs Mark) and 10th (NicoH vs Paul vs Sergio). Also Valtteri is dreaming about reaching Esteban for 16th in WDC!

 

YnSWRpV.png

 

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Torsion graphs show that Kimi dropping out really made it easier for Lewis (and took Lotus out of the WCC race):

 

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#94 Zava

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Posted 23 May 2014 - 11:54

hey turssi, 

 

planning on doing the same great job this year? :up:



#95 RubalSher

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Posted 23 May 2014 - 14:20

Top 6 teams only

 

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#96 RubalSher

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Posted 23 May 2014 - 14:21

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#97 RubalSher

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Posted 23 May 2014 - 14:22

hey turssi, 

 

planning on doing the same great job this year? :up:

 

Let us keep the tradition going.



#98 turssi

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Posted 23 May 2014 - 15:10

Hi guys and first of all thanks for the input.

Rubalsher addresses the main doubt I have had since a while now: where to focus in order to maximize the interest value of the content.

I guess the pilots from Merc, RBR, Ferrari, Williams and Lotus would be a good selection for this year?

Should I keep the graph format or go back to a simple table? What about the average point system used for the funny prediction, just last race or last three or five or an average from all the finished races so far?

#99 RubalSher

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Posted 23 May 2014 - 15:37

I guess the pilots from Merc, RBR, Ferrari, Williams and Lotus would be a good selection for this year?

 

I have used McLaren instead of Lotus in the above list.

 

 

Should I keep the graph format or go back to a simple table? What about the average point system used for the funny prediction, just last race or last three or five or an average from all the finished races so far?

 

I have used the average of last 3 races in the graphs above.



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#100 RubalSher

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Posted 25 May 2014 - 15:34

Post Monaco 2014

 

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