3 replies to this topic

[Makarias]

The standings after Australia:

Pos Name Tot Latest
1) AcuraF1 101 101
= an1res 101 101
= Anderis 101 101
= Apex 101 101
= August 101 101
= Barty 101 101
= Bleu 101 101
= Brawn BGP 001 101 101
= Costaz 101 101
= DutchQuicksilver 101 101
= Estwald 101 101
= Fastcake 101 101
= Fisichella_2001 101 101
= Grayson 101 101
= Iscurrega 101 101
= Kalmake 101 101
= kismet 101 101
= KWSN-DSM 101 101
= M2000-5 101 101
= Makarias 101 101
= mark f1 101 101
= noikeee 101 101
= scheivlak 101 101
= skylark68 101 101
= Wander 101 101
= wattoroos 101 101
= Wlleiotl 101 101

Congratulations, you're in the lead!

The entries


The following list shows the maximum, average ("popularity poll") and minimum bets on each driver. In order to make the Popularity Poll 1919 points, the value for Perez was rounded off down instead of up, as it otherwise would have been. Column "Diff" is Popularity Poll difference to 2012. Differences don't add up to zero coz 2012 had 20 races, and drivers like Schumacher and Kobayashi have disappeared.

Name Max Pop Min Diff
Vett 280 252 211 - 59
Alon 281 238 192 + 62
Räik 275 182 123 + 72
Butt 248 182 127 - 87
Webb 242 173 116 - 57
Hami 203 138 101 -143
Mass 210 135 60 + 40
Pere 201 122 82 + 95
Gros 165 115 63 + 45
Rosb 152 107 67 - 40
Hülk 84 60 30 + 17
Mald 87 50 30 + 39
Bott 62 38 7 + 38
Suti 63 37 21 + 37
diRe 60 35 17 - 10
Guti 43 28 18 + 28
Ricc 26 14 0 - 9
Verg 28 13 0 - 8
Pic 2 0 0 +- 0
Bian 3 0 0 +- 0
Chil 1 0 0 +- 0
vdGa 1 0 0 +- 0
dAmb 2 0 0 +- 0

A close Vettel-Alonso battle on the hands? The entries are largely based around last year's results, I suppose...


Popularity Poll WCC prediction:

Team Pts Diff
RBR 425 -116
Ferr 373 +102
McLa 304 -246
Lotu 297 +117
Merc 245 - 20
Will 88 + 65
Saub 88 + 34
FoIn 72 - 16
STR 27 - 17
Cate 0 - 4
Maru 0 +- 0

* Ferrari bounces back after low expectations for 2012, as does Lotus.
* McLaren instead hits a slump this year, to some extent caused by driver change as well.
* Williams back on form
* Previously small expectations on Caterham are now nonexistent.


If the Popularity Poll turns out to be a 100% correct prediction, the final standings would look like this:

Pos Name Tot
1) Fisichella_2001 1877
2) Wander 1870
3) DutchQuicksilver 1852
4) mark f1 1850
5) skylark68 1846
6) Apex 1840
7) AcuraF1 1827
8) Makarias 1817
9) Bleu 1810
10) wattoroos 1806
11) Grayson 1802
= KWSN-DSM 1802
= Wlleiotl 1802
14) Iscurrega 1789
15) Estwald 1783
16) noikeee 1774
17) Kalmake 1771
= scheivlak 1771
19) kismet 1770
20) Anderis 1752
= Costaz 1752
22) Fastcake 1747
23) an1res 1740
24) August 1732
25) Brawn BGP 001 1722
26) M2000-5 1714
27) Barty 1690

Fisichella_2001 is average entry of the year just 42 points off a perfect score!

Interlude

How many players have guessed each driver for WDC?

Driver Players
Vett 18
Alon 6
Butt 1
Räik 1
Webb 1

Vettel is again the WDC favourite, but five different candidates sounds like fun.


Teammate battles: Which driver is expected to outscore his teammate?

Owner Owned
<- = ->
Alon 27 0 0 Mass
Räik 27 0 0 Gros
Hülk 26 1 0 Guti
Butt 26 0 1 Pere
Vett 26 0 1 Webb
Hami 25 0 2 Rosb
Mald 20 4 3 Bott
Suti 15 5 7 diRe
Ricc 12 6 9 Verg
Pic 4 23 0 vdGa
Bian 3 23 1 Chil

More clear cut expectations on lead drivers than last year; FI and STR remain pretty open battles among the points scoring teams.

The Drivers' list

Driver Expect Surprise Beat
% % #
Suti 16,2 9,4 0
Räik 13,7 9,1 0
diRe 11,5 6,6 0
Mass 8,9 5,7 0
Alon 7,6 6,4 0
Hami 7,2 4,9 0
Vett 6,0 5,3 0
Webb 4,6 3,3 0
Butt 1,1 0,8 0
Gros 0,9 0,6 0

Decent start for the Force Indias!

EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2012 this is 28.


Guesses on P1-P5:

Räikkönen Alonso Vettel Massa Hamilton
* Forecast 475 * Potential 468 * Potential 465 * Potential 462 * Potential 460
* Potential 475 * Forecast 342 * Forecast 285 * Forecast 228 scheivlak 203
M2000-5 275 skylark68 281 Anderis 280 an1res 210 * Forecast 190
Iscurrega 251 Bleu 275 Makarias 276 M2000-5 199 August 181
noikeee 242 August 262 kismet 274 Kalmake 192 Grayson 165
Barty 222 KWSN-DSM 260 Bleu 272 kismet 175 Apex 160
Costaz 221 Iscurrega 254 noikeee 272 Anderis 170 KWSN-DSM 159
Wander 196 M2000-5 251 Apex 270 Estwald 155 Makarias 158
Anderis 188 an1res 250 August 267 noikeee 150 Fastcake 157
Estwald 185 Costaz 250 wattoroos 263 skylark68 144 DutchQuicksilver156
Bleu 183 kismet 250 Iscurrega 260 Bleu 140 noikeee 152
Kalmake 183 Kalmake 249 scheivlak 260 Makarias 139 mark f1 150
AcuraF1 180 AcuraF1 245 KWSN-DSM 259 DutchQuicksilver135 AcuraF1 145
Apex 180 Anderis 245 Costaz 254 Wander 134 Fisichella_2001 138
Wlleiotl 180 Wlleiotl 240 Fisichella_2001 252 wattoroos 133 wattoroos 138
August 179 DutchQuicksilver236 Wander 251 Costaz 132 Wander 136
skylark68 176 noikeee 236 mark f1 250 Fisichella_2001 130 Brawn BGP 001 133
an1res 174 scheivlak 235 skylark68 250 Iscurrega 130 Bleu 129
mark f1 170 Estwald 230 Wlleiotl 250 mark f1 130 Iscurrega 128
DutchQuicksilver167 mark f1 230 DutchQuicksilver247 AcuraF1 121 Estwald 124
Makarias 166 Fisichella_2001 229 Fastcake 247 Apex 120 Costaz 122
Fisichella_2001 165 Fastcake 227 Barty 241 Grayson 120 skylark68 120
scheivlak 163 Makarias 227 Kalmake 239 KWSN-DSM 115 Wlleiotl 120
wattoroos 163 wattoroos 223 M2000-5 236 Brawn BGP 001 111 kismet 118
Grayson 160 Wander 222 Estwald 235 scheivlak 110 Kalmake 115
KWSN-DSM 158 Apex 220 AcuraF1 230 Wlleiotl 100 an1res 110
kismet 147 Grayson 210 Grayson 230 August 91 Anderis 105
Fastcake 128 Brawn BGP 001 207 an1res 225 Fastcake 91 Barty 105
Brawn BGP 001 123 Barty 192 Brawn BGP 001 211 Barty 60 M2000-5 101
* Current 25 * Current 18 * Current 15 * Current 12 * Current 10

It takes a few races for the scores to catch up with the predictions on the top team drivers. Barty's Massa guess seems pretty vulnerable soon, for example.

Guesses on P6-P10:

Webber Sutil Di Resta Button Grosjean
* Potential 458 * Potential 456 * Potential 454 * Potential 452 * Potential 451
Barty 242 * Forecast 114 * Forecast 76 Costaz 248 Estwald 165
Anderis 225 wattoroos 63 Wlleiotl 60 Fastcake 241 an1res 150
Costaz 200 Wlleiotl 60 Barty 55 Brawn BGP 001 222 noikeee 148
kismet 200 Barty 55 wattoroos 53 Barty 209 Anderis 142
Fastcake 198 kismet 51 Brawn BGP 001 51 wattoroos 208 Makarias 142
DutchQuicksilver181 Grayson 50 Estwald 50 Iscurrega 201 scheivlak 141
an1res 180 Estwald 45 Grayson 45 Wlleiotl 200 Kalmake 134
Apex 180 August 44 kismet 44 kismet 199 AcuraF1 131
Estwald 180 DutchQuicksilver 42 Apex 40 August 197 Wander 124
mark f1 180 Apex 40 Fastcake 40 AcuraF1 195 skylark68 122
Wlleiotl 180 AcuraF1 39 Fisichella_2001 39 Bleu 190 M2000-5 121
Fisichella_2001 175 Fastcake 39 skylark68 39 DutchQuicksilver190 mark f1 120
Bleu 173 Bleu 36 Wander 39 Wander 185 wattoroos 118
Kalmake 173 Fisichella_2001 36 mark f1 35 Fisichella_2001 182 Costaz 114
skylark68 169 mark f1 35 AcuraF1 33 Apex 180 Fisichella_2001 114
AcuraF1 168 skylark68 35 scheivlak 32 Grayson 175 Brawn BGP 001 113
Wander 162 scheivlak 34 DutchQuicksilver 31 mark f1 170 Grayson 110
KWSN-DSM 160 Wander 34 an1res 30 skylark68 170 KWSN-DSM 105
Iscurrega 158 Brawn BGP 001 33 August 29 Makarias 164 Apex 100
Makarias 158 an1res 30 Bleu 28 scheivlak 164 DutchQuicksilver100
wattoroos 158 Iscurrega 27 KWSN-DSM 26 KWSN-DSM 157 Iscurrega 100
Grayson 155 Costaz 26 Iscurrega 25 M2000-5 157 kismet 99
noikeee 153 Kalmake 26 M2000-5 22 noikeee 151 Barty 89
M2000-5 152 KWSN-DSM 25 Costaz 21 an1res 150 Wlleiotl 80
* Forecast 152 Makarias 25 Kalmake 19 Estwald 145 Bleu 76
scheivlak 145 M2000-5 24 Makarias 19 Kalmake 145 Fastcake 72
Brawn BGP 001 144 noikeee 22 noikeee 18 Anderis 127 August 63
August 116 Anderis 21 Anderis 17 * Forecast 38 * Forecast 19
* Current 8 * Current 6 * Current 4 * Current 2 * Current 1

The FIs were the only cars from outside the big five to make it to the points. Early upsets there could be possible if they keep it up.

The PTPC forecast
Will appear after the Spanish GP.

[Wander]

Unsurprisingly doesn't tell us much yet. I guess I'm most worried about Massa outscoring my expectations quite heavily. I should've gone with my initial thoughts there (160-ish, I think), but I think I improved my prediction on the whole through testing. But that's obviously just an another prediction.

Edited by Wander, 21 March 2013 - 01:20.

[Costaz]

I liked the Interlude

The expectations for Hamilton have really fallen after his move to Mercedes..

Was the popularity vote ever accurate? I dug up last year's early stats - I was sitting in a similarly lowly place. I find that's a good thing; if I'm doing well, it means I'll have less competition for the nail biting last races

Thanks, Makarias, for all the stats, and running all these games

[Fastcake]

McLaren better fix their car soon, or I'm totally screwed