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Place The Points Competition 2013 after Malaysia


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#1 Makarias

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 12:37

The standings after Malaysia:
Pos Name Tot Latest
1) AcuraF1 202 101
= an1res 202 101
= Anderis 202 101
= Apex 202 101
= August 202 101
= Barty 202 101
= Bleu 202 101
= Brawn BGP 001 202 101
= Costaz 202 101
= DutchQuicksilver 202 101
= Fastcake 202 101
= Fisichella_2001 202 101
= Grayson 202 101
= Iscurrega 202 101
= Kalmake 202 101
= kismet 202 101
= KWSN-DSM 202 101
= M2000-5 202 101
= Makarias 202 101
= mark f1 202 101
= noikeee 202 101
= scheivlak 202 101
= skylark68 202 101
= Wander 202 101
= wattoroos 202 101
= Wlleiotl 202 101
27) Estwald 201 100
The field is beginning to spread out a bit...

The entries


The Drivers' list
Driver Expect Surprise Beat
% % #
Hami 18,1 12,3 0
Räik 17,0 11,2 0
Mass 16,3 10,4 0
Suti 16,2 9,4 0
Vett 15,9 14,2 0
Webb 15,0 10,7 0
diRe 11,5 6,6 0
Rosb 11,2 7,8 0
Gros 7,9 5,4 0
Alon 7,6 6,4 0
Verg 7,5 3,4 1
Hülk 6,7 4,7 0
Pere 1,6 1,0 0
Butt 1,1 0,8 0
JEV is the first driver to beat someone! Quite impressive considering that dodgy pit release.

EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2012 this is 28.


Guesses on P1-P5:
Vettel Webber Hamilton Rosberg Massa
* Potential 465 * Potential 451 * Potential 450 * Potential 437 * Potential 447
* Forecast 380 * Forecast 247 * Forecast 238 scheivlak 152 an1res 210
Anderis 280 Barty 242 scheivlak 203 an1res 140 * Forecast 209
Makarias 276 Anderis 225 August 181 AcuraF1 139 M2000-5 199
kismet 274 Costaz 200 Grayson 165 KWSN-DSM 138 Kalmake 192
Bleu 272 kismet 200 Apex 160 Kalmake 130 kismet 175
noikeee 272 Fastcake 198 KWSN-DSM 159 Grayson 125 Anderis 170
Apex 270 DutchQuicksilver181 Makarias 158 DutchQuicksilver124 Estwald 155
August 267 an1res 180 Fastcake 157 Makarias 118 noikeee 150
wattoroos 263 Apex 180 DutchQuicksilver156 Fastcake 117 skylark68 144
Iscurrega 260 Estwald 180 noikeee 152 Estwald 115 Bleu 140
scheivlak 260 mark f1 180 mark f1 150 * Forecast 114 Makarias 139
KWSN-DSM 259 Wlleiotl 180 AcuraF1 145 Fisichella_2001 112 DutchQuicksilver135
Costaz 254 Fisichella_2001 175 Fisichella_2001 138 Brawn BGP 001 111 Wander 134
Fisichella_2001 252 Bleu 173 wattoroos 138 noikeee 105 wattoroos 133
Wander 251 Kalmake 173 Wander 136 Wander 105 Costaz 132
mark f1 250 skylark68 169 Brawn BGP 001 133 skylark68 104 Fisichella_2001 130
skylark68 250 AcuraF1 168 Bleu 129 Anderis 100 Iscurrega 130
Wlleiotl 250 Wander 162 Iscurrega 128 Apex 100 mark f1 130
DutchQuicksilver247 KWSN-DSM 160 Estwald 124 mark f1 100 AcuraF1 121
Fastcake 247 Iscurrega 158 Costaz 122 Wlleiotl 100 Apex 120
Barty 241 Makarias 158 skylark68 120 Iscurrega 94 Grayson 120
Kalmake 239 wattoroos 158 Wlleiotl 120 August 88 KWSN-DSM 115
M2000-5 236 Grayson 155 kismet 118 wattoroos 88 Brawn BGP 001 111
Estwald 235 noikeee 153 Kalmake 115 Bleu 79 scheivlak 110
AcuraF1 230 M2000-5 152 an1res 110 M2000-5 78 Wlleiotl 100
Grayson 230 scheivlak 145 Anderis 105 Barty 77 August 91
an1res 225 Brawn BGP 001 144 Barty 105 Costaz 77 Fastcake 91
Brawn BGP 001 211 August 116 M2000-5 101 kismet 67 Barty 60
* Current 40 * Current 26 * Current 25 * Current 12 * Current 22
I think that too low guesses on these guys may prove costly in the end...

Guesses on P6-P10:
Grosjean Räikkönen Hülkenberg Perez Vergne
* Potential 434 * Potential 456 * Potential 429 * Potential 427 * Potential 426
Estwald 165 * Forecast 295 Bleu 84 Brawn BGP 001 201 M2000-5 28
an1res 150 M2000-5 275 Wlleiotl 80 August 170 mark f1 25
noikeee 148 Iscurrega 251 wattoroos 78 Fastcake 161 Bleu 23
Anderis 142 noikeee 242 Estwald 70 Kalmake 154 KWSN-DSM 23
Makarias 142 Barty 222 KWSN-DSM 69 Costaz 141 an1res 20
scheivlak 141 Costaz 221 Makarias 69 Fisichella_2001 141 Barty 20
Kalmake 134 Wander 196 Wander 67 Grayson 140 AcuraF1 18
AcuraF1 131 Anderis 188 Brawn BGP 001 66 wattoroos 133 skylark68 16
Wander 124 Estwald 185 AcuraF1 65 Iscurrega 132 Apex 15
skylark68 122 Bleu 183 Apex 65 Makarias 129 Fisichella_2001 15
M2000-5 121 Kalmake 183 Grayson 65 DutchQuicksilver128 Grayson 15
mark f1 120 AcuraF1 180 skylark68 63 KWSN-DSM 125 scheivlak 15
wattoroos 118 Apex 180 scheivlak 62 Wander 122 DutchQuicksilver 14
Costaz 114 Wlleiotl 180 August 60 Barty 121 Brawn BGP 001 11
Fisichella_2001 114 August 179 mark f1 60 Wlleiotl 120 kismet 11
Brawn BGP 001 113 skylark68 176 M2000-5 57 skylark68 116 August 10
Grayson 110 an1res 174 Fisichella_2001 56 Anderis 114 Iscurrega 10
KWSN-DSM 105 mark f1 170 Barty 55 Apex 110 Wander 10
Apex 100 DutchQuicksilver167 Fastcake 54 mark f1 104 * Forecast 10
DutchQuicksilver100 Makarias 166 Anderis 50 Bleu 103 Fastcake 9
Iscurrega 100 Fisichella_2001 165 Iscurrega 50 kismet 101 Wlleiotl 9
kismet 99 scheivlak 163 noikeee 50 Estwald 100 Kalmake 8
Barty 89 wattoroos 163 DutchQuicksilver 49 noikeee 98 Makarias 8
* Forecast 86 Grayson 160 kismet 49 an1res 90 wattoroos 8
Wlleiotl 80 KWSN-DSM 158 Kalmake 45 scheivlak 88 Anderis 7
Bleu 76 kismet 147 Costaz 43 AcuraF1 84 Costaz 5
Fastcake 72 Fastcake 128 * Forecast 38 M2000-5 82 noikeee 5
August 63 Brawn BGP 001 123 an1res 30 * Forecast 19 * Current 1
* Current 9 * Current 31 * Current 4 * Current 2 Estwald 0
Estwald is unlikely to remain the only one to underestimate Vergne.


The PTPC forecast
Will appear after the Spanish GP.


Old numbers
A historical look at how many points out of all placed it took to win each year:

Year WDC Game Winner
AD Points Win % (Players)
2000 442 365 82.58 jack and gilles (14)
2001 442 364 82.35 MrT, tacololo (69)
2002 442 376 85.07 smarty (46)
2003 624 537 86.06 arcsine (41)
2004 702 554 78.98 Pioneer (48)
2005 741 595 80.30 KWSN - DSM (49)
2006 702 592 84.33 an1res (47)
2007 663 563 84.92 turin (40)
2008 702 597 85.04 AcuraF1 (39)
2009 731 518 70.86 D82 (29)
2010 1919 1674 87.23 Costaz (34)
2011 1919 1664 86.71 Crazy Canuck (25)
2012 2020 1706 84.46 Costaz (28)
*Somewhere around 85% seems typical, the new points system seems to make it easier to get a high percentage right.
*2009 stands out as an unpredictable season, no doubt because of the Brawns.
*2004 was tricky too, Ferrari utter dominance being the culprit along with a surprisingly strong Honda.
*2003 being an unusually close season actually gave a relatively high scoring percentage, indicating that entries often tend to have "smoothed out" points differences between teams so that they look more like 2003 WDCs than 2004 ones.
*Number of players in decline; my usual nagging for more entrants has shifted focus towards Shareholders since 2008.

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#2 noikeee

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 14:13

Think I'm in a good position to do well this year, with big guesses for Vettel Kimi and Alonso as my top 3, as well as low guesses for McLaren, but would like more showings like Melbourne for Lotus, and may have underestimated the #2s Mark Webber and Felipe Massa. Could've done with switching some points from the Williams to the Force Indias too. I'm looking set to be caught out by Vergne soon as well, but that isn't worrying me much, as I don't believe there's much of a gain or a loss to be had there.

Edited by noikeee, 26 March 2013 - 14:14.


#3 Costaz

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 20:48

I have the best score ever (2020 in 2012) and the highest average too (87.23 in 2010) :cool:.

Looking at all the winners, these are some pretty good averages for before-the-season-starts guesses, we are not bad, are we.

As for 2013, I clearly overestimated Perez (though not as bad as Brawn BGP 001 :p), but the season is long, you never know...

Good luck to all :wave:

#4 Brawn BGP 001

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 22:46

Oh dear, might break the record for the worst score. Highest guesses for Williams, Perez. Lowest for Kimi. Vettel, 2nd lowest for Webber. :p :eek: :cry:

Leading guess the pole but right near the bottom in the rest of the competitions. :blush: :rotfl:

Edited by Brawn BGP 001, 26 March 2013 - 22:46.


#5 Wander

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Posted 27 March 2013 - 13:21

I would also really wish for Williams to turn it around.

I'm still hopeful that my Mclaren guesses might not end up that much far off if they can just keep on improving.

It's still really hard to predict how it's going to shape up anyway, so I won't go into what I wish I had done differently, and I think I have a decent shot of doing well here anyway. I think my prediction was the second closest to the average, and I think the average prediction might prove out to be a pretty good one.

Edited by Wander, 27 March 2013 - 13:22.