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[Makarias]

The standings after China:

Pos Name Tot Latest
1) AcuraF1 303 101
= an1res 303 101
= Anderis 303 101
= Apex 303 101
= August 303 101
= Barty 303 101
= Bleu 303 101
= Brawn BGP 001 303 101
= DutchQuicksilver 303 101
= Fastcake 303 101
= Fisichella_2001 303 101
= Grayson 303 101
= Iscurrega 303 101
= Kalmake 303 101
= kismet 303 101
= KWSN-DSM 303 101
= M2000-5 303 101
= Makarias 303 101
= mark f1 303 101
= noikeee 303 101
= scheivlak 303 101
= skylark68 303 101
= Wander 303 101
= wattoroos 303 101
= Wlleiotl 303 101
26) Costaz 302 100
27) Estwald 296 95

Ricciardo is providing some early season excitement. Estwald does mind.

The entries


The Drivers' list

Driver Expect Surprise Beat
% % #
Ricc 43,3 22,2 2
Hami 29,0 19,6 0
Räik 26,9 17,8 0
diRe 23,0 13,1 0
Mass 22,3 14,2 0
Vett 20,6 18,5 0
Alon 18,0 15,2 0
Suti 16,2 9,4 0
Webb 15,0 10,7 0
Rosb 11,2 7,8 0
Gros 9,6 6,6 0
Hülk 8,4 5,9 0
Verg 7,5 3,4 1
Butt 6,6 4,8 0
Pere 1,6 1,0 0

Ricciardo flies to the top of the list. STR is looking a bit too good for many players long term.

EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2012 this is 28.


Guesses on P1-P5:

Alonso Räikkönen Hamilton Vettel Button
* Potential 443 * Potential 449 * Potential 440 * Potential 452 * Potential 412
skylark68 281 * Forecast 310 * Forecast 253 * Forecast 329 Costaz 248
Bleu 275 M2000-5 275 scheivlak 203 Anderis 280 Fastcake 241
* Forecast 272 Iscurrega 251 August 181 Makarias 276 Brawn BGP 001 222
August 262 noikeee 242 Grayson 165 kismet 274 Barty 209
KWSN-DSM 260 Barty 222 Apex 160 Bleu 272 wattoroos 208
Iscurrega 254 Costaz 221 KWSN-DSM 159 noikeee 272 Iscurrega 201
M2000-5 251 Wander 196 Makarias 158 Apex 270 Wlleiotl 200
an1res 250 Anderis 188 Fastcake 157 August 267 kismet 199
Costaz 250 Estwald 185 DutchQuicksilver156 wattoroos 263 August 197
kismet 250 Bleu 183 noikeee 152 Iscurrega 260 AcuraF1 195
Kalmake 249 Kalmake 183 mark f1 150 scheivlak 260 Bleu 190
AcuraF1 245 AcuraF1 180 AcuraF1 145 KWSN-DSM 259 DutchQuicksilver190
Anderis 245 Apex 180 Fisichella_2001 138 Costaz 254 Wander 185
Wlleiotl 240 Wlleiotl 180 wattoroos 138 Fisichella_2001 252 Fisichella_2001 182
DutchQuicksilver236 August 179 Wander 136 Wander 251 Apex 180
noikeee 236 skylark68 176 Brawn BGP 001 133 mark f1 250 Grayson 175
scheivlak 235 an1res 174 Bleu 129 skylark68 250 mark f1 170
Estwald 230 mark f1 170 Iscurrega 128 Wlleiotl 250 skylark68 170
mark f1 230 DutchQuicksilver167 Estwald 124 DutchQuicksilver247 Makarias 164
Fisichella_2001 229 Makarias 166 Costaz 122 Fastcake 247 scheivlak 164
Fastcake 227 Fisichella_2001 165 skylark68 120 Barty 241 KWSN-DSM 157
Makarias 227 scheivlak 163 Wlleiotl 120 Kalmake 239 M2000-5 157
wattoroos 223 wattoroos 163 kismet 118 M2000-5 236 noikeee 151
Wander 222 Grayson 160 Kalmake 115 Estwald 235 an1res 150
Apex 220 KWSN-DSM 158 an1res 110 AcuraF1 230 Estwald 145
Grayson 210 kismet 147 Anderis 105 Grayson 230 Kalmake 145
Brawn BGP 001 207 Fastcake 128 Barty 105 an1res 225 Anderis 127
Barty 192 Brawn BGP 001 123 M2000-5 101 Brawn BGP 001 211 * Forecast 76
* Current 43 * Current 49 * Current 40 * Current 52 * Current 12

The top four guys are generally looking good compared to predictions, Button or rather McLaren need to improve though.

Guesses on P6-P10:

Massa Ricciardo Di Resta Grosjean Hülkenberg
* Potential 430 * Potential 406 * Potential 408 * Potential 411 * Potential 405
an1res 210 * Forecast 38 Wlleiotl 60 Estwald 165 Bleu 84
M2000-5 199 M2000-5 26 Barty 55 an1res 150 Wlleiotl 80
Kalmake 192 mark f1 25 wattoroos 53 noikeee 148 wattoroos 78
* Forecast 190 Apex 24 * Forecast 51 Anderis 142 Estwald 70
kismet 175 KWSN-DSM 24 Brawn BGP 001 51 Makarias 142 KWSN-DSM 69
Anderis 170 an1res 20 Estwald 50 scheivlak 141 Makarias 69
Estwald 155 Fisichella_2001 19 Grayson 45 Kalmake 134 Wander 67
noikeee 150 Kalmake 17 kismet 44 AcuraF1 131 Brawn BGP 001 66
skylark68 144 Brawn BGP 001 16 Apex 40 Wander 124 AcuraF1 65
Bleu 140 August 15 Fastcake 40 skylark68 122 Apex 65
Makarias 139 Grayson 15 Fisichella_2001 39 M2000-5 121 Grayson 65
DutchQuicksilver135 kismet 15 skylark68 39 mark f1 120 skylark68 63
Wander 134 AcuraF1 14 Wander 39 wattoroos 118 scheivlak 62
wattoroos 133 Bleu 14 mark f1 35 Costaz 114 August 60
Costaz 132 noikeee 14 AcuraF1 33 Fisichella_2001 114 mark f1 60
Fisichella_2001 130 Barty 12 scheivlak 32 Brawn BGP 001 113 M2000-5 57
Iscurrega 130 scheivlak 12 DutchQuicksilver 31 Grayson 110 Fisichella_2001 56
mark f1 130 DutchQuicksilver 11 an1res 30 KWSN-DSM 105 Barty 55
AcuraF1 121 Fastcake 11 August 29 Apex 100 Fastcake 54
Apex 120 Anderis 10 Bleu 28 DutchQuicksilver100 Anderis 50
Grayson 120 skylark68 10 KWSN-DSM 26 Iscurrega 100 Iscurrega 50
KWSN-DSM 115 Wlleiotl 10 Iscurrega 25 kismet 99 noikeee 50
Brawn BGP 001 111 Iscurrega 9 M2000-5 22 Barty 89 DutchQuicksilver 49
scheivlak 110 Makarias 9 Costaz 21 Wlleiotl 80 kismet 49
Wlleiotl 100 Wander 9 Kalmake 19 Bleu 76 Kalmake 45
August 91 wattoroos 8 Makarias 19 Fastcake 72 Costaz 43
Fastcake 91 * Current 6 noikeee 18 * Forecast 70 * Forecast 32
Barty 60 Costaz 5 Anderis 17 August 63 an1res 30
* Current 30 Estwald 0 * Current 8 * Current 11 * Current 5

A mixed group, this: Ricciardo and di Resta have had decent starts, Massa seems to have lost some ground each race but is still looking strong, Grosjean disappointing and Hülkenberg of course missed Malaysia...


The PTPC forecast
Will appear after the Spanish GP.


Old numbers
A look at the predictions for the Williams team through the years:

Year WCC guess guess WCC WCC WCC/guess
AD Points pts % pts % %
2000 442 14.2 3.2 36 8.1 253.3
2001 442 51.0 11.5 80 18.1 156.9
2002 442 118.1 26.7 92 20.8 77.9
2003 624 124.3 19.9 144 23.1 115.9
2004 702 166.6 23.7 88 12.5 52.8
2005 741 87.5 11.8 66 8.9 75.4
2006 702 44.3 6.3 11 1.6 24.8
2007 663 31.8 4.8 33 5.0 103.8
2008 702 54.2 7.7 26 3.7 47.8
2009 731 24.4 3.3 35 4.8 143.4
2010 1919 104.6 5.5 69 3.6 65.9
2011 1919 84.3 4.4 5 0.3 5.9
2012 2020 22.9 1.1 76 3.8 331.5

*The last column tells us that Williams has managed to beat our expectations six seasons out of the thirteen that this game has existed.
*2012 was the most positively surprising season for the team according to us, but on the other hand it came after a massively disappointing 2011.
*The team has been in decline after a peak in 2003, with little to cheer for after 2005.
Notes:
-Due to preseason regulation unclarity, in 2009 this game used a 12-9-7-5-4-3-2-1 scoring system for each race, which wasn't actually used in F1.
-The "guess pts" column values are based on guesses on the preseason nominated drivers of the team, whereas the WCC outcome is from all drivers scoring for the team.