124 replies to this topic

[sopa]

Bianchi has impressed in first three races. People are already discussing whether he is championship material or not. But when can you really be really sure that a driver is star material? How many races or seasons does it take? Lots of impressive debuts we have seen, starting with Villeneuve, Schumacher and Hamilton, but ending with the likes of Bourdais (was running 4th in Australia if I remember correctly), Capelli and others.

How much time should we give before we decide that someone really is star material. Is there any distinction between the debuts of true stars and those, who impress, but didn't turn out that good (Fisichella and the likes)? I know Fisichella, Alesi, Ralf Schumacher, Herbert were all rated as future WDC's once, but when comes the distinction point you recognize - neeh, these drivers are really not good enough, but Schumacher, Senna, Alonso - they have shown enough, I am convinced they are future stars. And they are.

[Atreiu]

It depends.
=P

[sopa]

It depends.
=P

So maybe you can speak from your own experience, how many seasons did it take to reach a conclusion about each driver. And find the average time by which time most drivers can be rated adequately. I am aware there can be a Mansell every now, who can surprise you even after 5 years. Even though maybe someone with an eagle eye recognized his talent already in Lotus, but understood he was at the wrong place to maximise his potential.

[Seanspeed]

Whenever you want. There's always that risk you take, though. Some drivers fail to live up to their potential, some drivers just never get the opportunity, some drivers only shine brightly for a brief period of time and some drivers are flattered by deceiving circumstances.

There's no mathematical formula for this and thus no good answer. Some drivers you might be more cautious about judging without more time under their belt and others you can pretty much know after just a single season. All depends.

[garoidb]

How favourably was Alonso viewed in 2003 and 2004? Was he viewed as a certain future WDC? Wasn't there some scorn that he was preferred over Button for the 2003 Renault seat (as Briatore's protege)? I know he was impressive in these seasons, but was he viewed as being more likely than Montoya or Ralf (or Button or Raikkonen), for example, to win a WDC?

Jenson Button is another case. He was probably viewed as a future WDC in 2000, and possibly even 2004, but his stock fell between 2005 and the end of 2008. He was probably only viewed as a possible WDC again as the 2009 season got underway.

Edited by garoidb, 18 April 2013 - 20:35.

[Dunc]

Cop out answer but it really depends on the driver. Button was highly rated at the start of his career but took nine years to become a WDC whereas Hamilton managed it in two.

He's probably the kind of driver who makes the most of a great situation as both of the above did, and Webber didn't in 2010.

[kartinhero]

After first race.

[garoidb]

After first race.

Ever got it wrong?

[kartinhero]

Ever got it wrong?

Time will tell.

[discover23]

I know Fisichella, Alesi, Ralf Schumacher, Herbert were all rated as future WDC's once,

I never did...

In the late 90's no one really stand out for me besides JV, Mikka and MS.

My last predictions:

Alonso ... checked.
Lewis ... checked.
Kubica.. .. accident - can't tell for sure if I was wrong.
Montoya.. wrong.
Button.. totally wrong.. I never thought he would ever be a WDC..

In the last 10 years so many drivers have entered f1.. and none of them besides Lewis and Kubica, I have said they would be WDC.

Bianchi?.. who is his teammate..? I don't even know that driver.

Edited by discover23, 18 April 2013 - 20:58.

[garoidb]

Have there been any drivers in the last couple of decades who were "WDC material" but did not win the WDC?

[OO7]

Three seconds after birth.

[Atreiu]

So maybe you can speak from your own experience, how many seasons did it take to reach a conclusion about each driver. And find the average time by which time most drivers can be rated adequately. I am aware there can be a Mansell every now, who can surprise you even after 5 years. Even though maybe someone with an eagle eye recognized his talent already in Lotus, but understood he was at the wrong place to maximise his potential.

From my own experience, it usually when they start getting wins or terrific results I think they just shouldn't get.
Rain as the great equalizer? Okay. But Vettel should have not won Monza 2008. Not when there were plenty of other very good drivers, WDCs included, on competent enough cars through the field. That was when I really first thought, okay, that guy has it coming. Maybe other folks had reached the conclusion before, but I admit I'm not the best judge of guys in the midfield.

From the current pack, Hulkenberg is the obvious candidate. I used to think more of Grosjean.

[discover23]

How favourably was Alonso viewed in 2003 and 2004? Was he viewed as a certain future WDC? Wasn't there some scorn that he was preferred over Button for the 2003 Renault seat (as Briatore's protege)? I know he was impressive in these seasons, but was he viewed as being more likely than Montoya or Ralf (or Button or Raikkonen), for example, to win a WDC?

Jenson Button is another case. He was probably viewed as a future WDC in 2000, and possibly even 2004, but his stock fell between 2005 and the end of 2008. He was probably only viewed as a possible WDC again as the 2009 season got underway.

Your post leads me to believe that you are from the UK.
We never shared those views here in the US - we do have hardcore F1 fans on the other side of the pond - it is just not as popular as in EU.
Alonso was always rated as the best prospect for Renault on top of Button and Fisi, sure a future WDC just on 2003 alone. He was impressive that year but their car faded and could not really challenge for the WDC.
That story that you bring up about Button and Alonso in Renault was obviously perpetrated by the media as Button was the rising British star ..
Montoya was always highly rated and this goes back to his F3000 days.. no sponsorship and got a Williams test driver seat on pure talent, then went on to the US and dominated the CART series.
The views on Ralf in the US was that he entered F1 because of his last name but little to do with his actual talent. Button was replaced by Montoya so you already know what that means.
The cream raise to the top, it is not a coincidence that the top teams and team bosses always go for the best drivers. The views in Button were that he was a cruiser.. lacking the killer instinct ..

Edited by discover23, 18 April 2013 - 21:13.

[discover23]

Have there been any drivers in the last couple of decades who were "WDC material" but did not win the WDC?

Montoya & Kubica .. I can't think of anyone else.

[sopa]

Right now Alonso is a top driver, but Webber is considered second tier. Remember their debuts, both in Minardis, one year apart. Both were impressive, but was there anything in their Minardi seasons that indicated Alonso was a little bit more impressive? Bianchi is now impressive in Marussia. Is he more like Alonso or more like Webber? Or someone else? I don't know, like Fisichella in Minardi in 1996 or Trulli in the same team a year later.

Or you can't really separate the backmarker performances of all these drivers and you can conclude anything about Bianchi only if he moves to a better team?

How favourably was Alonso viewed in 2003 and 2004? Was he viewed as a certain future WDC? Wasn't there some scorn that he was preferred over Button for the 2003 Renault seat (as Briatore's protege)? I know he was impressive in these seasons, but was he viewed as being more likely than Montoya or Ralf (or Button or Raikkonen), for example, to win a WDC?

Jenson Button is another case. He was probably viewed as a future WDC in 2000, and possibly even 2004, but his stock fell between 2005 and the end of 2008. He was probably only viewed as a possible WDC again as the 2009 season got underway.

Button, however, is not considered as a true star material. He will not go to history as an all-time great. So even though he won WDC, the critics, who say that he lacked something truly special when he was in midfield, are still sort of proud of their opinion.

Alonso, I think, was rated in 2003 along with Raikkonen and Montoya as a future star, a successor to Schumacher. I think in 2004 there were some doubts about Alonso. But I am unsure if it affected his ranking.

[sopa]

I personally can't make my mind up on Hulkenberg. Is he star material or just your good second tier like Webber, Rosberg? Ok, maybe I'll be wrong on Rosberg. Or is he 1B like Button - a WDC but flawed? Hulkenberg has been in F1 for more than two years. He also has had a slow start to career, but is now slowly becoming better. He had one standout drive last year too (Brazil), like Vettel had at Monza with Toro Rosso. Then again Perez had a standout in Malaysia, yet he is inconsistent.

I have a very big suspicion Hulk is more like Rosberg, Heidfeld and Button rather than Hamilton or Vettel. I don't know, just a strange feeling.

Edited by sopa, 18 April 2013 - 21:22.

[discover23]

I think in 2004 there were some doubts about Alonso. But I am unsure if it affected his ranking.

I don't think it did. Similarly Alonso reputation was still high after 2007 and Lewis still demands the highest salary despite losing to Button. There is more to rating drivers than the points table.

Edited by discover23, 18 April 2013 - 21:24.

[scheivlak]

How favourably was Alonso viewed in 2003 and 2004? Was he viewed as a certain future WDC? Wasn't there some scorn that he was preferred over Button for the 2003 Renault seat (as Briatore's protege)? I know he was impressive in these seasons, but was he viewed as being more likely than Montoya or Ralf (or Button or Raikkonen), for example, to win a WDC?

Well, read this forum's threads of those years!
Right after the 2003 Malaysian Q (his first pole) he was already seen by quite a few people as a future WDC. I can't remember any scorn about being preferred to Jenson, who was very, very much scorned that same year as a Dave Richards baby by the JV gang - just look at http://forums.autosp...w...tton&st=120 but then I already answer your next question
After some heavy criticism and feverish discussions about 'Fred' after his 2003 Brazil GP crash and his 2003 N'ring encounter with DC there was of course another wave of Alonso joy and applause after the 2003 Hungarian GP ('youngest GP winner ever'). Right or wrong Ralf -who in a way had an even more sensational 2003 Hungarian GP- never had any kind of esteem on this board BTW.
Then came 2004, with a lot of people questioning if Fernando was that special, especially after the Trulli/Briatore fallout. 2005 gave an answer.

Jenson Button is another case. He was probably viewed as a future WDC in 2000, and possibly even 2004, but his stock fell between 2005 and the end of 2008. He was probably only viewed as a possible WDC again as the 2009 season got underway.

Button was a complete write-off after 2001 and was ridiculed even after 2004 because of his rather peculiar dealings in his personal Williams/BAR saga, ending up as a private Williams sponsor for quite an amount of money IIRC. Another reason for ridicule during the 2004 season was that declared that he himself was the best driver on the grid - mid-Schumi-destroys-them-all-season..... (see http://atlasf1.autos...0/elizalde.html june 2004)
His 2009 season must be one of the strangest turn-arounds ever......

Edited by scheivlak, 18 April 2013 - 22:53.

[Matarese]

There is one thing I'm privately a little proud of and that is calling out Alonso on his talent when he started with Minardi. He really stood out then, out racing and qaulifying his own team mate and cars that by rights should have been quicker than the minardi. To me it was very obvious straight away of his talent.

I'll reserve judgement on Bianchi so far but he does look quite good.

[sopa]

I don't think it did. Similarly Alonso reputation was still high after 2007 and Lewis still demands the highest salary despite losing to Button. There is more to rating drivers than the points table.

Okay, so I take it as 2004 for Alonso was like 2011 for Hamilton. A bad year, but everyone still knew he was one of the most talented drivers on the grid and just needed to get his act together.

[undersquare]

I personally can't make my mind up on Hulkenberg. Is he star material or just your good second tier like Webber, Rosberg? Ok, maybe I'll be wrong on Rosberg. Or is he 1B like Button - a WDC but flawed? Hulkenberg has been in F1 for more than two years. He also has had a slow start to career, but is now slowly becoming better. He had one standout drive last year too (Brazil), like Vettel had at Monza with Toro Rosso. Then again Perez had a standout in Malaysia, yet he is inconsistent.

I have a very big suspicion Hulk is more like Rosberg, Heidfeld and Button rather than Hamilton or Vettel. I don't know, just a strange feeling.

Hulk IMO is rather like Montoya - very fast but a bit wild. Lewis/Sebi/Nando would never have made a mistake like the one Hulk made in Brazil.

Jenson for me is defined by Spa 2000 - very fast to be 3rd on the grid, but then got mugged again and again in the race with that slight lack of aggression. I see Rosberg like this too.

But all the drivers are unlucky to be in this era of FA/LH/SV.

[ApexMouse]

Stick Karthikeyan in a car 2 seconds faster than the rest and give him a team-mate a few tenths slower and he would be Champion Material all of a sudden. It's the sum of the parts.

[scheivlak]

How much time should we give before we decide that someone really is star material. Is there any distinction between the debuts of true stars and those, who impress, but didn't turn out that good (Fisichella and the likes)? I know Fisichella, Alesi, Ralf Schumacher, Herbert were all rated as future WDC's once, but when comes the distinction point you recognize - neeh, these drivers are really not good enough, but Schumacher, Senna, Alonso - they have shown enough, I am convinced they are future stars. And they are.

I can't remember one serious guy (or girl) rating Fisi or Ralf as a future WDC. Herbert only before his (pre-F1) F3000 crash in 1988.

That said, I don't think many people expected Denis Hulme to be the 1967 WDC even at the start of the season, let alone Keke Rosberg at the start of the 1982 season!

[discover23]

Hulk IMO is rather like Montoya - very fast but a bit wild. Lewis/Sebi/Nando would never have made a mistake like the one Hulk made in Brazil.

that mistake does resemble JPM in Australia 03/02? . where he gave the race win to DC..
But besides that, there is nothing else that IMO is similar between those two drivers.

[sopa]

I can't remember one serious guy (or girl) rating Fisi or Ralf as a future WDC. Herbert only before his (pre-F1) F3000 crash in 1988.

That said, I don't think many people expected Denis Hulme to be the 1967 WDC even at the start of the season, let alone Keke Rosberg at the start of the 1982 season!

Hey, I remember even some TV commentators (can't remember who) thinking Fisichella could be a WDC. That was when he was in Benetton. Or in Jordan in 1997.

Or Ralf Schumacher was rated very highly in 1999. Murray Walker even mentioned him as "his driver of the year".

[undersquare]

that mistake does resemble JPM in Australia 03/02? . where he gave the race win to DC..
But besides that, there is nothing else that IMO is similar between those two drivers.

I see Hulk and JPM as both distinctly aggressive, and very fast but not quite in the 'sublime' category. All the drivers are different ultimately, of course. Hulk though I don't think is destined for greatness or we'd have noticed by now, and he is 26 I think?

[yoyogetfunky]

I never did...

In the late 90's no one really stand out for me besides JV, Mikka and MS.

My last predictions:

Alonso ... checked.
Lewis ... checked.
Kubica.. .. accident - can't tell for sure if I was wrong.
Montoya.. wrong.
Button.. totally wrong.. I never thought he would ever be a WDC..

In the last 10 years so many drivers have entered f1.. and none of them besides Lewis and Kubica, I have said they would be WDC.

Bianchi?.. who is his teammate..? I don't even know that driver.

Montoya was an odd one. Id swear he was a chosen one. He came so close in 2003. Damn shame.

[discover23]

Hey, I remember even some TV commentators (can't remember who) thinking Fisichella could be a WDC. That was when he was in Benetton. Or in Jordan in 1997.

But in Benetton he was already being outqualified and outrced by Alonso in a Minardi.

[scheivlak]

Hey, I remember even some TV commentators (can't remember who) thinking Fisichella could be a WDC. That was when he was in Benetton. Or in Jordan in 1997.

Yes, maybe Olav Mol -the Dutch commentator- said that as well. But I was talking about serious people

Or Ralf Schumacher was rated very highly in 1999. Murray Walker even mentioned him as "his driver of the year".

Well, maybe he was mine too - together with HHF. But there is a difference between 'driver of the year' and 'future WDC'. For some reason I never expected Ronnie Peterson, Gilles Villeneuve or JPM -all having some claim to be driver of a year- to become WDC. And that's not because I'm clairvoyant (never expected Hulme, Rosberg or Button to become WDC either).

[Kingshark]

Have there been any drivers in the last couple of decades who were "WDC material" but did not win the WDC?

Juan Pablo Montoya - rated him in 2003
Robert Kubica - rated him in 2008
Nico Rosberg - rated him in 2009

I understand that Rosberg still has a way to go, but it seems all the more unlikely now Lewis has joined Merc.

[Kingshark]

It seems that a lot of people tip Nico Hulkenberg to be a future WDC. That becomes interesting because it is only his 3rd year in Formula 1, once again with another midfield team.

This has me wondering if Hulk could turn out to be another Fisichella.

[Bloggsworth]

I find that most do it in retrospect: "I always said he would be World Champion one day..."

[MP422]

I never did...

In the late 90's no one really stand out for me besides JV, Mikka and MS.

My last predictions:

Alonso ... checked.
Lewis ... checked.
Kubica.. .. accident - can't tell for sure if I was wrong.
Montoya.. wrong.
Button.. totally wrong.. I never thought he would ever be a WDC..

In the last 10 years so many drivers have entered f1.. and none of them besides Lewis and Kubica, I have said they would be WDC.

Bianchi?.. who is his teammate..? I don't even know that driver.

Yep, I jive with that... although Montoya no. Raikkonen yes.

[pingu666]

still not sure on hulk, and fisi is/was excellent in crap cars, but meh in front running cars.

I think koba *might* of , he did shine when the pressure was on sometimes, like in japan, and his toyota debut races

some drivers rise to the occasion, others cant get it together, when put in wdc potential position

[Lelouch]

For the past decade I think they were as impressive as it gets in lower teams and it was a good bet for both of them. These are 2 guys that I expected to win WDC and they did. I didn't rate Montoya as WDC material and nearly got it wrong and I still don't think Button is WDC material although he is a WDC! Lewis was obvious from his day 1. Felipe and Rubens were always a bit too inconsistent for such a challenge.

I think what you have to rate is how impressive they have been when competing for lower teams. Some guys have this aura around them when they drive you realise they do something special even if the finish a race 18th.

Maybe when any driver drives impressively for 70-80% of the season when they iare young it's fair to say that they are a good bet for future WDC. I think Ayrton Senna and Michael Schumacher were obvious picks from day 1 as was Alonso for me. After all, it's just the impression they leave to you as a fan.

[ardbeg]

Last year I decided Perez was WDC material. I was wrong. I was right about Alonso, Kimi, Vettel, Hamilton and before that Schumacher. Actually Perez is my only miss so far
Of course, some have become champions without my blessing but I forgive them.

[Kingshark]

Last year I decided Perez was WDC material. I was wrong.

Wow, amazing how quickly some people will jump to conclusions. He's 23, have some patience.

[Lelouch]

Last year I decided Perez was WDC material. I was wrong. I was right about Alonso, Kimi, Vettel, Hamilton and before that Schumacher. Actually Perez is my only miss so far
Of course, some have become champions without my blessing but I forgive them.

I think the tyre situation last year was confusing. I did not rate him as WDC material tbh but I considered him a great prospect too. But after some point last year it was obvious that he had to improve a lot. And the same applies to this year too I think. I find it really hard to assess the current new drivers even Hulkenberg who indeed seems to be a potential future WDC.

[ardbeg]

Wow, amazing how quickly some people will jump to conclusions. He's 23, have some patience.

This thread is about making quick decisions
I think Sauber had a great car last year. If he proves me wrong by proving me right, I win. If he doesn't, I win again.

[discover23]

I would say two years is better to make a proper assesment . The jury still out on Perez .. If he destroys Button towards the end of the season people would reconsider.

[Kingshark]

Back in 2000, people predicted on who'd be champion for the next 10 years:

http://forums.autosp...w...8&hl=future

This thread is pure gold!

[BigCHrome]

Absolutely nobody believed Button was WDC material before 2009, so until the driver is actually in a position to do it.

[aditya-now]

After first race.

In many cases this is true. First race of a real top driver shows already a lot.

[mattferg]

I made a thread a while back about this, and I feel it's important to mention it again:

what's more important, the team you sign for or the talent you have?

If Alonso had gone Webber's way to Jaguar/Williams and Webber to Renault, Alonso might not be a WDC and Webber would. Would this mean we'd rate Webber higher? What about Button and Brawn? Or if Vettel went the Sauber route? Kimi stayed with McLaren? Discuss.

[Kingshark]

what's more important, the team you sign for or the talent you have?

Who had more natural talent, versus who drove for the right team at the right time;

Jacques Villeneuve vs. Jean Alesi.

There's the answer, really.

[discover23]

I made a thread a while back about this, and I feel it's important to mention it again:

what's more important, the team you sign for or the talent you have?

If Alonso had gone Webber's way to Jaguar/Williams and Webber to Renault, Alonso might not be a WDC and Webber would. Would this mean we'd rate Webber higher? What about Button and Brawn? Or if Vettel went the Sauber route? Kimi stayed with McLaren? Discuss.

How are you so sure Webber would have become WDC in a renault beating Kimi in 05 and Shumi in 06??

[Kyo]

Back in 2000, people predicted on who'd be champion for the next 10 years:

http://forums.autosp...w...8&hl=future

This thread is pure gold!

It only shows how weak the grid were back in 2000.

[vlado]

When this happens ?

[apoka]

When this happens ?

Did you notice the Vettel finger at 7:37? The mark of champions.