100 replies to this topic

[ASFA2011]

I'm saying that he probably won't. I think he will surpass Senna's ( 41 wins ) when everything is said and done

[akshay380]

I'm saying that he probably won't. I think he will surpass Senna's ( 41 wins ) when everything is said and done

IBTL

[Les]

Yes.

[Doughnut King]

41 wins is doable.

[Watkins74]

No.

Alonso already has more starts than Prost and is 20 wins behind. The current generation will be helped in the record book by the number of races held each year. The 3 to 4 extra races each year compared to Prost's era start to add up quickly.

Massive respect for both those drivers.

Edited by Watkins74, 19 April 2013 - 00:28.

[Boxerevo]

Its all about being on a dominant car for some year or two.

If not,will be hard i reckon.

[ASFA2011]

No.

Alonso already has more starts than Prost and is 20 wins behind. The current generation will be helped in the record book by the number of races held each year. The 3 to 4 extra races each year compared to Prost's era start to add up quickly.

Massive respect for both those drivers.

You are right about that , drivers nowadays have more races than drivers back then , then again I think the level of competiviness nowadays is harder than it was back in those days and Prost drove more dominant cars than Alonso had
I think if may be doable if Alonso stay in F1 for let's say another five years and win 4-5 races per year

[mattferg]

Barring any RB7/F2004 years the most a championship winner wins is usually about 5 or 6. He'd have to win three in a row, or come very close, and even then he'd only manage 18 Max maybe, and realistically he's retiring after this Ferrari contract.

[ASFA2011]

Barring any RB7/F2004 years the most a championship winner wins is usually about 5 or 6. He'd have to win three in a row, or come very close, and even then he'd only manage 18 Max maybe, and realistically he's retiring after this Ferrari contract.

I don't think he will retire by the end of 2016 even tho he says that he Ferrari will be his last team , he will be 34 by then and I think he will have at least 2 or 3 good year left in his tanks so either he gets a contract extension by Ferrari or he goes to end his career in another team so he may have a good chance of breaking that record
I think what completely messed up his stats were those two miserable years when he went back to Renault

[Afterburner]

He's got three full seasons plus the remainder of this one left on his contract--let's say about 76 races until the end of his career if he decides not to renew. In two-hundred starts, he's averaged a victory about every 6.452 races. At this rate, by his final race, he will have amassed 42.777 (43) wins. The maths say he probably won't get to Prost's total, but he'll probably pass Senna's.

Working the same math on the other World Champions (using their own average-number-of-races-per-win number, though), assuming their careers will last as long as Alonso's might (276 races), we get these numbers:

Sebastian Vettel: 72 wins
Lewis Hamilton: 51 wins
Fernando Alonso: 43 wins
Kimi Raikkonen: 31 wins
Jenson Button: 18 wins

Obviously these aren't totally accurate numbers because they come from a very simple equation that doesn't take lean years/car performance/age/injuries/what-have-you into account. To be honest, I can see Vettel and Hamilton as being more likely to break Prost's record, considering the competitive portions of their careers are likely going to out-last Alonso's by at least a year or two and they (Hamilton especially) had much better starts than he did.

Short answer: will he do it? Probably not, but anything's possible.

[mattferg]

I don't think he will retire by the end of 2016 even tho he says that he Ferrari will be his last team , he will be 34 by then and I think he will have at least 2 or 3 good year left in his tanks so either he gets a contract extension by Ferrari or he goes to end his career in another team so he may have a good chance of breaking that record
I think what completely messed up his stats were those two miserable years when he went back to Renault

He'll be 35, and if he isn't a Ferrari champion by then I don't see them rehiring him.

[aditya-now]

I'm saying that he probably won't. I think he will surpass Senna's ( 41 wins ) when everything is said and done

He will break the record an go on to record 71 victories. That is a tall order, of course, as it would mean four years (2013 - 2016) all with ten victories each (2013 11 victories in total).

However, as I take this thread partly tongue in cheek, partly serious - yes, he will beat Prost; yes, he will stay in the "tradition of .1 victories (31, 41, 51, 91...)

[ASFA2011]

He'll be 35, and if he isn't a Ferrari champion by then I don't see them rehiring him.

Isn't he 31 years old right now ? So in 2016 he still be 34 if my math is correct , and yes I don't see Ferrari rehiring him unless they see that he is still very competitive , that is why I said that he might finish it in another team

[mattferg]

Isn't he 31 years old right now ? So in 2016 he still be 34 if my math is correct , and yes I don't see Ferrari rehiring him unless they see that he is still very competitive , that is why I said that he might finish it in another team

I'm afraid your maths is right but your facts are wrong.

His birthday's in July so at the end of his Ferrari contract he'll be 35. He said he'll finish his career at Ferrari - I'm sure like RAI or MSC though Enstone or Brackley would happily take him - however if he's only won 9 races in those 3 years he'd have to win the same amount with the new team, which would be unlikely.

[fdspd]

I don't believe he can, although I hope he would. Vettel will probably surpass Alonso while he's still active. He might've had stronger stats had he stayed at Mclaren.

[DILLIGAF]

It's very possible IF he gets the right car.

[Kyo]

wow, already more starts than Prost.

[BigCHrome]

Alonso will definitely get Senna, especially looking at how fast his car is this year. It will depend on how strong the Ferrari engine is for 2014+ if he is to catch Prost.

I don't believe he can, although I hope he would. Vettel will probably surpass Alonso while he's still active. He might've had stronger stats had he stayed at Mclaren.

Depends if Newey can find the magic formula for next year. Otherwise Vettel's career might plateau very abruptly.

[ASFA2011]

I'm afraid your maths is right but your facts are wrong.

His birthday's in July so at the end of his Ferrari contract he'll be 35. He said he'll finish his career at Ferrari - I'm sure like RAI or MSC though Enstone or Brackley would happily take him - however if he's only won 9 races in those 3 years he'd have to win the same amount with the new team, which would be unlikely.

Well I though he turned 31 this year , I didn't know his birthday
Anyway for all we know the Ferrari could be a dominant machine next year giving him one of those 10 + wins season and let's say he wins 3 more times this season and that will put him right on target to break that record

[ASFA2011]

I don't believe he can, although I hope he would. Vettel will probably surpass Alonso while he's still active. He might've had stronger stats had he stayed at Mclaren.

I don't think Vettel can surpass Alonso while they are both still active if Alonso can maintain that 3- 4 wins gap and have a car similarly competitive to Vettel's
Vettel will probably surpass him after Alonso is retired

[George Costanza]

I think he can catch Ayrton. But Alain will be tough. Now Michael's wins on the other hand... I don't think, not even Seb, will come close to Michael's win total...

Edited by George Costanza, 19 April 2013 - 01:22.

[ASFA2011]

I think he can catch Ayrton. But Alain will be tough. Now Michael's wins on the other hand... I don't think, not even Seb, will come close to Michael's win total...

Yes , I think Michael's record if out reach for anyone right now and that is totally amazing !!

[ViMaMo]

12th year in F1. Wow, time flies. Another 5 years?

[reggie]

If he gets a few amazing cars like seb, he will do it easily. His record is amazing when you consider the low % of races he has had the best car. Probably the lowest of any of the drivers top 10 all time.

Edited by reggie, 19 April 2013 - 01:55.

[Kingshark]

I'm a big fan of Alonso, but honestly I don't think he will. I can see him retire with likely somewhere around 45 wins by 2016.

I can definitely see him surpassing Ayrton, but Alain will be too difficult I suspect.

Edited by Kingshark, 19 April 2013 - 02:17.

[SB]

I'm a big fan of Alonso, but honestly I don't think he will. I can see him retire with likely somewhere around 45 wins by 2016.

I can definitely see him surpassing Ayrton, but Alain will be too difficult I suspect.

Still possible, but I guess Vettel will have much better chance to accomplish this.

[aray]

not impossible but unlikely....both Vettel and Lewis will pass that mark though....

Edited by aray, 19 April 2013 - 03:16.

[discover23]

Shumi was 31 in 2000 when his consecutive streak began. Can anyone tell how many wins he had prior to that year?

[Afterburner]

Shumi was 31 in 2000 when his consecutive streak began. Can anyone tell how many wins he had prior to that year?

Thirty-five wins. He scored at least nine in every year after that except 2003, 2005, and 2006.

EDIT: Except his comeback, of course, during which he was winless--but I don't see Alonso as someone who'd do something like that.

Edited by Afterburner, 19 April 2013 - 03:56.

[Boxerevo]

Shumi was 31 in 2000 when his consecutive streak began. Can anyone tell how many wins he had prior to that year?

35 wins.

1991-1999 = 136 GPs.

Edited by Boxerevo, 19 April 2013 - 03:59.

[Jan.W]

Yes , I think Michael's record if out reach for anyone right now and that is totally amazing !!

His victories records is simply the most astonishing stat under his belt. Totally unreachable.

[Kelateboy]

Yes , I think Michael's record if out reach for anyone right now and that is totally amazing !!

Michael's record is out of reach for anyone. IMO, Alonso will beat Senna's record but will fall short of Prost's.

[Kyo]

Michael's record is astonishing but certainly not out of reach.

[kosmos]

It's all about the car, if he gets a dominant car, he can win 10-14 races in one year, but it's a big if. In the other hand I think he is going to finish with more podiums than Prost.

[Hanzo]

I think what completely messed up his stats were those two miserable years when he went back to Renault

Fanboy talking here... those two years were miserable for his stats, but did wonders for his patience, consistency and reliability IMHO. About the topic, I think it will be close but not enough, in great part due to the great rivals he has: Hamilton, Vettel, Raikkonen, Hamilton...

Edited by Hanzo, 19 April 2013 - 05:34.

[baddog]

a couple of years of genuinely dominant cars (which CAN happen for sure) and he will get those stats. If it h appens? Noone I think can tell at all. He is clearly good enough.

[F1AC]

It's all about the car, if he gets a dominant car, he can win 10-14 races in one year, but it's a big if. In the other hand I think he is going to finish with more podiums than Prost.

14 races in a year

And on topic, no chance.

Edited by F1AC, 19 April 2013 - 05:53.

[joshb]

14 races in a year

And on topic, no chance.

Don't know, Seb could have got Canada, China, Abu Dhabi and Brazil in his 2011 year- so that's 15 out of 19... could be possible if it goes for you

As for Alonso to get 51- it wouldn't surprise me- he just need 1 productive year of 8 or 9 and he'll mor eor less be there unless he drives a complete shambles of a car

[Piif]

Alonso has the best or second best car now (even though he ridicilously tries to downplay Ferrari - again - to improve the image of his driving) so he might have a chance.

But I think it'll be Vettel who breaks these records.

[garoidb]

not impossible but unlikely....both Vettel and Lewis will pass that mark though....

For both these guys, it will depend on the length of their careers. We assume they will go on in to their mid-30s or further but they may not (like Mika). Also, they might have seasons in poor cars, or take a couple of years out (like Kimi).

[mnmracer]

For both these guys, it will depend on the length of their careers. We assume they will go on in to their mid-30s or further but they may not (like Mika). Also, they might have seasons in poor cars, or take a couple of years out (like Kimi).

Lewis, perhaps, as he's 10 wins behind, but unless something really odd happens, I don't see Vettel not making up the 4-win gap.

[Ikebana]

Alonso has the best or second best car now (even though he ridicilously tries to downplay Ferrari - again - to improve the image of his driving) so he might have a chance.

But I think it'll be Vettel who breaks these records.

Alosno downplaying his Ferrari must be the largest fake cliche in this forum. All comments coming out from Alonso are about that even if actually they're not.

The funny thing is that nobody throws any criticism against a certain finn HERE as he says "Lotus still has not the speed" despite finishing second in a race with a broken nose.

Edited by Ikebana, 19 April 2013 - 08:30.

[Rinehart]

I'm saying that he probably won't. I think he will surpass Senna's ( 41 wins ) when everything is said and done

He would need to break 52, due to Singapore, in my book.

[Kingshark]

I'm not too sure if Hamilton will break Alonso's record. Lewis is 10 wins behind, and is only 3.5 years younger. This means that Lewis would have to get an average of about 3 wins/season in order to match Alonso. I suspect that Hamilton and Alonso will be very close in victory count by the time they both retire.

Vettel will probably surpass Alonso's winning tally, although with the new regulation changes in 2014, who knows. Anything could happen.

[OfficeLinebacker]

He would need to break 52, due to Singapore, in my book.

Ooooh didn't think of that. Were none of Prost's victories under suspicious circumstances?

[ArkZ]

I said it once while there was a list with Alonso's 30 victories. All drivers ahead of Alonso had dominant cars in thier careers while Spaniard has none, without dominant (or the best in the grid) car but with competitive ones he will reach Senna's record but Prost record will be very hard to reach.

Edited by ArkZ, 20 April 2013 - 09:49.

[holiday]

Shumi was 31 in 2000 when his consecutive streak began. Can anyone tell how many wins he had prior to that year?

Good point. I still remember most vividly that after the 1998 campaign I got disillusioned and disappointed with his Ferrari stint and after the next season I considered it a serious mistake. There was the most talented, fastest and most aggressive racer of his generation but he did not get what he deserved on merit, because others had regularly the better machinery fallen into their lap. It appeared so unfair and I made my peace with Ferrari only long after he started his unique winning streak. That was due compensation for the man against machine show with which Schumacher kept formula 1 almost single-handedly alive in the late 1990s.

[kartinhero]

No

[Claudius]

I think Alonso will break Prost's record.
He's still young and I'm sure Ferrari could/will produce a dominant car in the coming years.
And in the end I think he'll have more wins than Lewis. Just a feeling I have.

In a way I'm sad that the symmetry for most wins will be disturbed by the current generation (91, 51, 41, 31).

[Nonesuch]

I strongly doubt it; since leaving Renault in 2006, Alonso has won an average of just 2.1 races a year. He now has 31 wins, but it took him all of 6 seasons and the three races this year to double that from 15. Let's look at this on a year-by-year basis:

2013: 1 win, so far
2012: 3 wins
2011: 1 win
2010: 5 wins
2009: 0 wins
2008: 2 wins
2007: 4 wins
2006: 7 wins
2005: 7 wins
2004: 0 wins
2003: 1 win

Even with 20 races a year, it isn't as easy at it looks.

Edited by Nonesuch, 20 April 2013 - 11:58.