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[Makarias]

The standings after Bahrain:

Pos Name Tot Latest
1) AcuraF1 404 101
= an1res 404 101
= Apex 404 101
= August 404 101
= Barty 404 101
= Bleu 404 101
= Brawn BGP 001 404 101
= DutchQuicksilver 404 101
= Fastcake 404 101
= Fisichella_2001 404 101
= Grayson 404 101
= Iscurrega 404 101
= kismet 404 101
= KWSN-DSM 404 101
= M2000-5 404 101
= mark f1 404 101
= scheivlak 404 101
= skylark68 404 101
= Wander 404 101
= wattoroos 404 101
= Wlleiotl 404 101
22) Costaz 403 101
= Kalmake 403 100
= Makarias 403 100
25) noikeee 402 99
26) Anderis 401 98
27) Estwald 397 101

FFS!

The entries


The Drivers' list

Driver Expect Surprise Beat
% % #
diRe 57,4 32,8 4
Ricc 43,3 22,2 2
Räik 36,7 24,3 0
Hami 36,2 24,5 0
Vett 30,6 27,4 0
Gros 22,7 15,7 0
Mass 22,3 14,2 0
Alon 19,7 16,7 0
Webb 18,5 13,2 0
Suti 16,2 9,4 0
Rosb 13,1 9,2 0
Hülk 8,4 5,9 0
Pere 8,2 5,0 0
Verg 7,5 3,4 1
Butt 7,1 5,2 0

Bloody di Resta gets going...

EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2012 this is 28.


Guesses on P1-P5:

Vettel Räikkönen Grosjean Di Resta Hamilton
* Potential 452 * Potential 442 * Potential 401 * Potential 395 * Potential 425
* Forecast 366 * Forecast 318 Estwald 165 * Forecast 95 * Forecast 238
Anderis 280 M2000-5 275 an1res 150 Wlleiotl 60 scheivlak 203
Makarias 276 Iscurrega 251 noikeee 148 Barty 55 August 181
kismet 274 noikeee 242 Anderis 142 wattoroos 53 Grayson 165
Bleu 272 Barty 222 Makarias 142 Brawn BGP 001 51 Apex 160
noikeee 272 Costaz 221 scheivlak 141 Estwald 50 KWSN-DSM 159
Apex 270 Wander 196 Kalmake 134 Grayson 45 Makarias 158
August 267 Anderis 188 AcuraF1 131 kismet 44 Fastcake 157
wattoroos 263 Estwald 185 Wander 124 Apex 40 DutchQuicksilver156
Iscurrega 260 Bleu 183 * Forecast 124 Fastcake 40 noikeee 152
scheivlak 260 Kalmake 183 skylark68 122 Fisichella_2001 39 mark f1 150
KWSN-DSM 259 AcuraF1 180 M2000-5 121 skylark68 39 AcuraF1 145
Costaz 254 Apex 180 mark f1 120 Wander 39 Fisichella_2001 138
Fisichella_2001 252 Wlleiotl 180 wattoroos 118 mark f1 35 wattoroos 138
Wander 251 August 179 Costaz 114 AcuraF1 33 Wander 136
mark f1 250 skylark68 176 Fisichella_2001 114 scheivlak 32 Brawn BGP 001 133
skylark68 250 an1res 174 Brawn BGP 001 113 DutchQuicksilver 31 Bleu 129
Wlleiotl 250 mark f1 170 Grayson 110 an1res 30 Iscurrega 128
DutchQuicksilver247 DutchQuicksilver167 KWSN-DSM 105 August 29 Estwald 124
Fastcake 247 Makarias 166 Apex 100 Bleu 28 Costaz 122
Barty 241 Fisichella_2001 165 DutchQuicksilver100 KWSN-DSM 26 skylark68 120
Kalmake 239 scheivlak 163 Iscurrega 100 Iscurrega 25 Wlleiotl 120
M2000-5 236 wattoroos 163 kismet 99 M2000-5 22 kismet 118
Estwald 235 Grayson 160 Barty 89 Costaz 21 Kalmake 115
AcuraF1 230 KWSN-DSM 158 Wlleiotl 80 * Current 20 an1res 110
Grayson 230 kismet 147 Bleu 76 Kalmake 19 Anderis 105
an1res 225 Fastcake 128 Fastcake 72 Makarias 19 Barty 105
Brawn BGP 001 211 Brawn BGP 001 123 August 63 noikeee 18 M2000-5 101
* Current 77 * Current 67 * Current 26 Anderis 17 * Current 50

Much needed improvement for Grosjean.

Guesses on P6-P10:

Perez Webber Alonso Rosberg Button
* Potential 385 * Potential 407 * Potential 422 * Potential 389 * Potential 388
Brawn BGP 001 201 Barty 242 skylark68 281 scheivlak 152 Costaz 248
August 170 Anderis 225 Bleu 275 an1res 140 Fastcake 241
Fastcake 161 Costaz 200 August 262 AcuraF1 139 Brawn BGP 001 222
Kalmake 154 kismet 200 KWSN-DSM 260 KWSN-DSM 138 Barty 209
Costaz 141 Fastcake 198 Iscurrega 254 Kalmake 130 wattoroos 208
Fisichella_2001 141 DutchQuicksilver181 M2000-5 251 Grayson 125 Iscurrega 201
Grayson 140 an1res 180 an1res 250 DutchQuicksilver124 Wlleiotl 200
wattoroos 133 Apex 180 Costaz 250 Makarias 118 kismet 199
Iscurrega 132 Estwald 180 kismet 250 Fastcake 117 August 197
Makarias 129 mark f1 180 Kalmake 249 Estwald 115 AcuraF1 195
DutchQuicksilver128 Wlleiotl 180 AcuraF1 245 Fisichella_2001 112 Bleu 190
KWSN-DSM 125 Fisichella_2001 175 Anderis 245 Brawn BGP 001 111 DutchQuicksilver190
Wander 122 Bleu 173 Wlleiotl 240 noikeee 105 Wander 185
Barty 121 Kalmake 173 DutchQuicksilver236 Wander 105 Fisichella_2001 182
Wlleiotl 120 skylark68 169 noikeee 236 skylark68 104 Apex 180
skylark68 116 AcuraF1 168 scheivlak 235 Anderis 100 Grayson 175
Anderis 114 Wander 162 Estwald 230 Apex 100 mark f1 170
Apex 110 KWSN-DSM 160 mark f1 230 mark f1 100 skylark68 170
mark f1 104 Iscurrega 158 Fisichella_2001 229 Wlleiotl 100 Makarias 164
Bleu 103 Makarias 158 Fastcake 227 Iscurrega 94 scheivlak 164
kismet 101 wattoroos 158 Makarias 227 August 88 KWSN-DSM 157
Estwald 100 Grayson 155 * Forecast 223 wattoroos 88 M2000-5 157
noikeee 98 noikeee 153 wattoroos 223 Bleu 79 noikeee 151
an1res 90 * Forecast 152 Wander 222 M2000-5 78 an1res 150
scheivlak 88 M2000-5 152 Apex 220 Barty 77 Estwald 145
AcuraF1 84 scheivlak 145 Grayson 210 Costaz 77 Kalmake 145
M2000-5 82 Brawn BGP 001 144 Brawn BGP 001 207 * Forecast 67 Anderis 127
* Forecast 48 August 116 Barty 192 kismet 67 * Forecast 62
* Current 10 * Current 32 * Current 47 * Current 14 * Current 13

The McLaren boys are desperate for their upcoming car updates. Alonso clearly has more potential than what the forecast indicates.


The PTPC forecast
Will appear after the Spanish GP.


Old numbers
A look at the predictions for the Sauber team through the years:

Year WCC guess guess WCC WCC WCC/guess
AD Points pts % pts % %
2000 442 14.1 3.2 6 1.4 42.4
2001 442 5.3 1.2 21 4.8 395.2
2002 442 18.8 4.3 11 2.5 58.5
2003 624 33.4 5.4 19 3.0 56.7
2004 702 25.0 3.6 34 4.8 135.9
2005 741 27.8 3.8 20 2.7 71.9
2006 702 32.8 4.7 36 5.1 109.9
2007 663 85.1 12.8 101 15.2 118.6
2008 702 96.4 13.7 135 19.2 140.0
2009 731 108.5 14.8 36 4.9 33.2
2010 1919 88.3 4.6 44 2.3 49.8
2011 1919 60.3 3.1 44 2.3 72.9
2012 2020 54.1 2.7 126 6.2 232.8

*Just like Williams last week, Sauber has a 6/13 ratio for beating our expectations so far.
*Just like for Williams, their most surprising season (2001) came when expectations were dropping due to a weak previous season.
*2007-2008 was a short burst as a beyond midfielder team under the BMW ownership era (2006-2009).
*Those years aside, last season was a bit of a high point in terms of scoring a good percentage of all WCC points available.
Notes:
-Due to preseason regulation unclarity, in 2009 this game used a 12-9-7-5-4-3-2-1 scoring system for each race, which wasn't actually used in F1.
-The "guess pts" column values are based on guesses on the preseason nominated drivers of the team, whereas the WCC outcome is from all drivers scoring for the team.