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[Makarias]

The standings after Spain:

Pos Name Tot Latest
1) AcuraF1 505 101
= an1res 505 101
= Apex 505 101
= August 505 101
= Barty 505 101
= Bleu 505 101
= Brawn BGP 001 505 101
= DutchQuicksilver 505 101
= Fastcake 505 101
= Fisichella_2001 505 101
= Grayson 505 101
= kismet 505 101
= KWSN-DSM 505 101
= mark f1 505 101
= scheivlak 505 101
= skylark68 505 101
= Wander 505 101
= wattoroos 505 101
= Wlleiotl 505 101
20) Iscurrega 504 100
21) M2000-5 501 97
22) Costaz 498 95
= Kalmake 498 95
= Makarias 498 95
25) Estwald 497 100
= noikeee 497 95
27) Anderis 496 95

More points missed by otherwise brilliant players such as Makarias.

The entries


The Drivers' list

Driver Expect Surprise Beat
% % #
diRe 74,7 42,6 7
Ricc 50,5 25,9 2
Räik 46,6 30,8 0
Hami 36,2 24,5 0
Vett 35,3 31,7 0
Mass 33,4 21,3 0
Alon 30,2 25,5 0
Webb 24,3 17,3 0
Gros 22,7 15,7 0
Rosb 20,6 14,4 0
Suti 16,2 9,4 0
Pere 9,8 5,9 0
Butt 9,3 6,8 0
Hülk 8,4 5,9 0
Verg 7,5 3,4 1

Ricciardo and di Resta provided points misses. Expectation fulfillment nearing 100% already for the Scotsman.
EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2012 this is 28.


Guesses on P1-P5:

Alonso Räikkönen Massa Vettel Webber
* Potential 422 * Potential 435 * Potential 395 * Potential 439 * Potential 392
skylark68 281 * Forecast 323 an1res 210 * Forecast 338 Barty 242
Bleu 275 M2000-5 275 M2000-5 199 Anderis 280 Anderis 225
* Forecast 274 Iscurrega 251 Kalmake 192 Makarias 276 Costaz 200
August 262 noikeee 242 kismet 175 kismet 274 kismet 200
KWSN-DSM 260 Barty 222 * Forecast 171 Bleu 272 Fastcake 198
Iscurrega 254 Costaz 221 Anderis 170 noikeee 272 DutchQuicksilver181
M2000-5 251 Wander 196 Estwald 155 Apex 270 an1res 180
an1res 250 Anderis 188 noikeee 150 August 267 Apex 180
Costaz 250 Estwald 185 skylark68 144 wattoroos 263 Estwald 180
kismet 250 Bleu 183 Bleu 140 Iscurrega 260 mark f1 180
Kalmake 249 Kalmake 183 Makarias 139 scheivlak 260 Wlleiotl 180
AcuraF1 245 AcuraF1 180 DutchQuicksilver135 KWSN-DSM 259 Fisichella_2001 175
Anderis 245 Apex 180 Wander 134 Costaz 254 Bleu 173
Wlleiotl 240 Wlleiotl 180 wattoroos 133 Fisichella_2001 252 Kalmake 173
DutchQuicksilver236 August 179 Costaz 132 Wander 251 skylark68 169
noikeee 236 skylark68 176 Fisichella_2001 130 mark f1 250 AcuraF1 168
scheivlak 235 an1res 174 Iscurrega 130 skylark68 250 Wander 162
Estwald 230 mark f1 170 mark f1 130 Wlleiotl 250 KWSN-DSM 160
mark f1 230 DutchQuicksilver167 AcuraF1 121 DutchQuicksilver247 * Forecast 160
Fisichella_2001 229 Makarias 166 Apex 120 Fastcake 247 Iscurrega 158
Fastcake 227 Fisichella_2001 165 Grayson 120 Barty 241 Makarias 158
Makarias 227 scheivlak 163 KWSN-DSM 115 Kalmake 239 wattoroos 158
wattoroos 223 wattoroos 163 Brawn BGP 001 111 M2000-5 236 Grayson 155
Wander 222 Grayson 160 scheivlak 110 Estwald 235 noikeee 153
Apex 220 KWSN-DSM 158 Wlleiotl 100 AcuraF1 230 M2000-5 152
Grayson 210 kismet 147 August 91 Grayson 230 scheivlak 145
Brawn BGP 001 207 Fastcake 128 Fastcake 91 an1res 225 Brawn BGP 001 144
Barty 192 Brawn BGP 001 123 Barty 60 Brawn BGP 001 211 August 116
* Current 72 * Current 85 * Current 45 * Current 89 * Current 42

...

Guesses on P6-P10:

Rosberg Di Resta Button Perez Ricciardo
* Potential 372 * Potential 376 * Potential 367 * Potential 362 * Potential 357
scheivlak 152 * Forecast 99 Costaz 248 Brawn BGP 001 201 * Forecast 27
an1res 140 Wlleiotl 60 Fastcake 241 August 170 M2000-5 26
AcuraF1 139 Barty 55 Brawn BGP 001 222 Fastcake 161 mark f1 25
KWSN-DSM 138 wattoroos 53 Barty 209 Kalmake 154 Apex 24
Kalmake 130 Brawn BGP 001 51 wattoroos 208 Costaz 141 KWSN-DSM 24
Grayson 125 Estwald 50 Iscurrega 201 Fisichella_2001 141 an1res 20
DutchQuicksilver124 Grayson 45 Wlleiotl 200 Grayson 140 Fisichella_2001 19
Makarias 118 kismet 44 kismet 199 wattoroos 133 Kalmake 17
Fastcake 117 Apex 40 August 197 Iscurrega 132 Brawn BGP 001 16
Estwald 115 Fastcake 40 AcuraF1 195 Makarias 129 August 15
Fisichella_2001 112 Fisichella_2001 39 Bleu 190 DutchQuicksilver128 Grayson 15
Brawn BGP 001 111 skylark68 39 DutchQuicksilver190 KWSN-DSM 125 kismet 15
noikeee 105 Wander 39 Wander 185 Wander 122 AcuraF1 14
Wander 105 mark f1 35 Fisichella_2001 182 Barty 121 Bleu 14
skylark68 104 AcuraF1 33 Apex 180 Wlleiotl 120 noikeee 14
Anderis 100 scheivlak 32 Grayson 175 skylark68 116 Barty 12
Apex 100 DutchQuicksilver 31 mark f1 170 Anderis 114 scheivlak 12
mark f1 100 an1res 30 skylark68 170 Apex 110 DutchQuicksilver 11
Wlleiotl 100 August 29 Makarias 164 mark f1 104 Fastcake 11
Iscurrega 94 Bleu 28 scheivlak 164 Bleu 103 Anderis 10
August 88 KWSN-DSM 26 KWSN-DSM 157 kismet 101 skylark68 10
wattoroos 88 * Current 26 M2000-5 157 Estwald 100 Wlleiotl 10
* Forecast 84 Iscurrega 25 noikeee 151 noikeee 98 Iscurrega 9
Bleu 79 M2000-5 22 an1res 150 an1res 90 Makarias 9
M2000-5 78 Costaz 21 Estwald 145 scheivlak 88 Wander 9
Barty 77 Kalmake 19 Kalmake 145 AcuraF1 84 wattoroos 8
Costaz 77 Makarias 19 Anderis 127 M2000-5 82 * Current 7
kismet 67 noikeee 18 * Forecast 65 * Forecast 46 Costaz 5
* Current 22 Anderis 17 * Current 17 * Current 12 Estwald 0

I'm sure Rosberg would gladly trade off some of his awesome qualifying performance to get better race results, but he's still better off than the McLaren boys so far.


The PTPC forecast

Name Forecast +/-
noikeee 1574,4
M2000-5 1566,6
Iscurrega 1553,2
Apex 1511,8
Anderis 1511,0
skylark68 1510,4
Bleu 1510,0
kismet 1500,2
KWSN-DSM 1498,8
Costaz 1496,2
Kalmake 1490,8
Makarias 1490,2
mark f1 1487,8
scheivlak 1485,2
Wander 1484,8
DutchQuicksilver 1480,8
an1res 1477,8
wattoroos 1477,2
Estwald 1473,0
Fisichella_2001 1469,8
AcuraF1 1465,8
August 1442,4
Wlleiotl 1439,0
Grayson 1438,2
Fastcake 1372,0
Barty 1368,4
Brawn BGP 001 1334,2

The first forecast of the season predicts a three way fight for the title with the rest of us at a safe distance. But who knows what may happen, maybe disappointing teams like McLaren, Sauber and Williams will find some pace and turn the season around? Plenty of racing left this year, hallelujah!
It is also worth noting that neither one in the top three in the forecast are currently in the joint lead!

Old numbers
A look at the predictions for the Red Bull (nee Jaguar) team through the years:

Year WCC guess guess WCC WCC WCC/guess
AD Points pts % pts % %
2000 442 41.2 9.3 4 0.9 9.7
2001 442 6.8 1.6 9 2.0 131.4
2002 442 5.9 1.3 8 1.8 134.7
2003 624 14.5 2.3 18 2.9 123.8
2004 702 18.2 2.6 10 1.4 54.9
2005 741 14.8 2.0 34 4.6 230.3
2006 702 24.6 3.5 16 2.3 65.1
2007 663 21.1 3.2 24 3.6 113.7
2008 702 40.3 5.7 29 4.1 71.9
2009 731 47.8 6.5 177 24.2 370.6
2010 1919 368.3 19.2 498 26.0 135.2
2011 1919 496.2 25.9 650 33.9 131.0
2012 2020 540.4 26.8 460 22.8 85.1

*Red Bull has an 8/13 ratio for beating our expectations so far. Much of the time expectations haven't been particularly high...
*The team kept on grinding in the midfield for years until the ketchup finally started pouring in 2009, and it hasn't stopped ever since. Taking 33.9% of all WDC points in 2011 is a massive success, 42.6% being the maximum possible that year.
*Low point was way back in 2000 with a lame season after a highly competitive 1999 season as Stewart had given hopes for great things to come.
Notes:
-Due to preseason regulation unclarity, in 2009 this game used a 12-9-7-5-4-3-2-1 scoring system for each race, which wasn't actually used in F1.
-The "guess pts" column values are based on guesses on the preseason nominated drivers of the team, whereas the WCC outcome is from all drivers scoring for the team.

[KWSN - DSM]

Great now I can see my race by race trot towards the finish line and glory, or finish line and bitter defeat.

[Brawn BGP 001]

Oh dear.