2 replies to this topic

[Makarias]

The standings after Monaco:

Pos Name Tot Latest
1) AcuraF1 606 101
= an1res 606 101
= Apex 606 101
= August 606 101
= Barty 606 101
= Bleu 606 101
= Brawn BGP 001 606 101
= DutchQuicksilver 606 101
= Fastcake 606 101
= Fisichella_2001 606 101
= Grayson 606 101
= kismet 606 101
= mark f1 606 101
= scheivlak 606 101
= skylark68 606 101
= Wander 606 101
= wattoroos 606 101
= Wlleiotl 606 101
19) KWSN-DSM 604 99
20) Iscurrega 603 99
21) M2000-5 600 99
22) Costaz 597 99
= Kalmake 597 99
= Makarias 597 99
25) noikeee 596 99
26) Anderis 595 99
27) Estwald 594 97

Just eighteen players in the lead, outrageous.

The entries


The Drivers' list

Driver Expect Surprise Beat
% % #
diRe 80,4 45,9 8
Ricc 50,5 25,9 2
Räik 47,1 31,2 0
Hami 44,9 30,4 0
Rosb 44,0 30,7 0
Suti 43,3 25,0 0
Vett 42,5 38,1 0
Verg 37,7 17,2 1
Mass 33,4 21,3 0
Webb 33,0 23,5 0
Alon 32,7 27,7 0
Gros 22,7 15,7 0
Butt 13,7 10,0 0
Pere 9,8 5,9 0
Hülk 8,4 5,9 0

EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2012 this is 28.


Guesses on P1-P5:

Rosberg Vettel Webber Hamilton Sutil
* Potential 372 * Potential 432 * Potential 382 * Potential 387 * Potential 341
scheivlak 152 * Forecast 339 Barty 242 scheivlak 203 wattoroos 63
* Forecast 149 Anderis 280 Anderis 225 * Forecast 196 Wlleiotl 60
an1res 140 Makarias 276 Costaz 200 August 181 Barty 55
AcuraF1 139 kismet 274 kismet 200 Grayson 165 * Forecast 51
KWSN-DSM 138 Bleu 272 Fastcake 198 Apex 160 kismet 51
Kalmake 130 noikeee 272 DutchQuicksilver181 KWSN-DSM 159 Grayson 50
Grayson 125 Apex 270 * Forecast 181 Makarias 158 Estwald 45
DutchQuicksilver124 August 267 an1res 180 Fastcake 157 August 44
Makarias 118 wattoroos 263 Apex 180 DutchQuicksilver156 DutchQuicksilver 42
Fastcake 117 Iscurrega 260 Estwald 180 noikeee 152 Apex 40
Estwald 115 scheivlak 260 mark f1 180 mark f1 150 AcuraF1 39
Fisichella_2001 112 KWSN-DSM 259 Wlleiotl 180 AcuraF1 145 Fastcake 39
Brawn BGP 001 111 Costaz 254 Fisichella_2001 175 Fisichella_2001 138 Bleu 36
noikeee 105 Fisichella_2001 252 Bleu 173 wattoroos 138 Fisichella_2001 36
Wander 105 Wander 251 Kalmake 173 Wander 136 mark f1 35
skylark68 104 mark f1 250 skylark68 169 Brawn BGP 001 133 skylark68 35
Anderis 100 skylark68 250 AcuraF1 168 Bleu 129 scheivlak 34
Apex 100 Wlleiotl 250 Wander 162 Iscurrega 128 Wander 34
mark f1 100 DutchQuicksilver247 KWSN-DSM 160 Estwald 124 Brawn BGP 001 33
Wlleiotl 100 Fastcake 247 Iscurrega 158 Costaz 122 an1res 30
Iscurrega 94 Barty 241 Makarias 158 skylark68 120 Iscurrega 27
August 88 Kalmake 239 wattoroos 158 Wlleiotl 120 Costaz 26
wattoroos 88 M2000-5 236 Grayson 155 kismet 118 Kalmake 26
Bleu 79 Estwald 235 noikeee 153 Kalmake 115 KWSN-DSM 25
M2000-5 78 AcuraF1 230 M2000-5 152 an1res 110 Makarias 25
Barty 77 Grayson 230 scheivlak 145 Anderis 105 M2000-5 24
Costaz 77 an1res 225 Brawn BGP 001 144 Barty 105 noikeee 22
kismet 67 Brawn BGP 001 211 August 116 M2000-5 101 Anderis 21
* Current 47 * Current 107 * Current 57 * Current 62 * Current 16

Sutil returns to the points and will surely want some more consistency in his points scoring.

Guesses on P6-P10:

Button Alonso Vergne Di Resta Räikkönen
* Potential 350 * Potential 403 * Potential 330 * Potential 353 * Potential 411
Costaz 248 skylark68 281 M2000-5 28 * Forecast 89 M2000-5 275
Fastcake 241 Bleu 275 mark f1 25 Wlleiotl 60 * Forecast 272
Brawn BGP 001 222 August 262 Bleu 23 Barty 55 Iscurrega 251
Barty 209 KWSN-DSM 260 KWSN-DSM 23 wattoroos 53 noikeee 242
wattoroos 208 Iscurrega 254 an1res 20 Brawn BGP 001 51 Barty 222
Iscurrega 201 M2000-5 251 Barty 20 Estwald 50 Costaz 221
Wlleiotl 200 an1res 250 AcuraF1 18 Grayson 45 Wander 196
kismet 199 Costaz 250 skylark68 16 kismet 44 Anderis 188
August 197 kismet 250 * Forecast 16 Apex 40 Estwald 185
AcuraF1 195 Kalmake 249 Apex 15 Fastcake 40 Bleu 183
Bleu 190 * Forecast 247 Fisichella_2001 15 Fisichella_2001 39 Kalmake 183
DutchQuicksilver190 AcuraF1 245 Grayson 15 skylark68 39 AcuraF1 180
Wander 185 Anderis 245 scheivlak 15 Wander 39 Apex 180
Fisichella_2001 182 Wlleiotl 240 DutchQuicksilver 14 mark f1 35 Wlleiotl 180
Apex 180 DutchQuicksilver236 Brawn BGP 001 11 AcuraF1 33 August 179
Grayson 175 noikeee 236 kismet 11 scheivlak 32 skylark68 176
mark f1 170 scheivlak 235 August 10 DutchQuicksilver 31 an1res 174
skylark68 170 Estwald 230 Iscurrega 10 an1res 30 mark f1 170
Makarias 164 mark f1 230 Wander 10 August 29 DutchQuicksilver167
scheivlak 164 Fisichella_2001 229 Fastcake 9 Bleu 28 Makarias 166
KWSN-DSM 157 Fastcake 227 Wlleiotl 9 * Current 28 Fisichella_2001 165
M2000-5 157 Makarias 227 Kalmake 8 KWSN-DSM 26 scheivlak 163
noikeee 151 wattoroos 223 Makarias 8 Iscurrega 25 wattoroos 163
an1res 150 Wander 222 wattoroos 8 M2000-5 22 Grayson 160
Estwald 145 Apex 220 Anderis 7 Costaz 21 KWSN-DSM 158
Kalmake 145 Grayson 210 Costaz 5 Kalmake 19 kismet 147
Anderis 127 Brawn BGP 001 207 noikeee 5 Makarias 19 Fastcake 128
* Forecast 79 Barty 192 * Current 5 noikeee 18 Brawn BGP 001 123
* Current 25 * Current 78 Estwald 0 Anderis 17 * Current 86

Not the results we're used to expect from Fernando and Kimi, which makes their forecasts take a hit.

The PTPC forecast

Name Forecast +/-
noikeee 1576,8 2,4
scheivlak 1566,5 81,3
Apex 1562,5 50,7
DutchQuicksilver 1558,8 78,0
Iscurrega 1554,3 1,1
AcuraF1 1545,2 79,4
KWSN-DSM 1540,3 41,5
mark f1 1533,3 45,5
an1res 1529,7 51,9
M2000-5 1528,2 -38,4
Bleu 1525,8 15,8
Fisichella_2001 1525,3 55,5
skylark68 1523,7 13,3
Estwald 1521,8 48,8
Makarias 1518,3 28,1
Kalmake 1514,8 24,0
Wander 1513,3 28,5
Wlleiotl 1512,7 73,7
kismet 1512,0 11,8
Anderis 1511,3 0,3
Costaz 1505,8 9,6
Grayson 1505,3 67,1
wattoroos 1501,0 23,8
August 1463,0 20,6
Fastcake 1451,5 79,5
Barty 1426,3 57,9
Brawn BGP 001 1366,3 32,1

This forecast is still extremely fickle this early in the season, so big changes can still happen. Nico Rosberg's predicted final WDC score went up from 84 to 149 points just this race, just for example...

Old numbers
A look at the predictions for the Mercedes (nee BAR/Honda/Brawn) team through the years:

Year WCC guess guess WCC WCC WCC/guess
AD Points pts % pts % %
2000 442 10.9 2.5 20 4.5 184.2
2001 442 38.6 8.7 17 3.8 44.0
2002 442 15.1 3.4 7 1.6 46.4
2003 624 29.5 4.7 26 4.2 88.1
2004 702 46.9 6.7 119 17.0 253.8
2005 741 79.3 10.7 38 5.1 47.9
2006 702 105.3 15.0 86 12.3 81.6
2007 663 62.3 9.4 6 0.9 9.6
2008 702 9.4 1.3 14 2.0 148.9
2009 731 85.3 11.7 202 27.6 236.7
2010 1919 310.9 16.2 214 11.2 68.8
2011 1919 274.8 14.3 165 8.6 60.0
2012 2020 265.4 13.1 142 7.0 53.5

*The franchise has an unimpressive 4/13 ratio for beating our expectations far.
*It has at times been quite unpredictable, with strong seasons followed by weak to rubbish ones.
*The Brawn season of 2009 is the obvious high point that raised expectations for Mercedes to be a top team ever since and they've also been falling short of those expectations just as regularly. 2013 looks to be different though...
Notes:
-Due to preseason regulation unclarity, in 2009 this game used a 12-9-7-5-4-3-2-1 scoring system for each race, which wasn't actually used in F1.
-The "guess pts" column values are based on guesses on the preseason nominated drivers of the team, whereas the WCC outcome is from all drivers scoring for the team.

[noikeee]

So I'm almost last in the standings, yet first in the forecast. Looks like this isn't very well established yet - either way I think I got my best chance yet over the seasons to get a good result here.

[Wander]

Indeed. I think we'll have to wait until the middle of the season to have the forecast and standings mean something. But I can't see myself winning really. Overestimated Williams and Mclaren way too badly.