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[Makarias]

The standings after Canada:

Pos Name Tot Latest
1) Apex 707 101
= Barty 707 101
= Fisichella_2001 707 101
= Grayson 707 101
= mark f1 707 101
= skylark68 707 101
7) AcuraF1 706 100
8) Brawn BGP 001 705 99
= kismet 705 99
= scheivlak 705 99
11) DutchQuicksilver 704 98
= Wander 704 98
13) an1res 703 97
= Fastcake 703 97
= Wlleiotl 703 97
16) wattoroos 702 96
17) Bleu 701 95
18) August 699 93
= KWSN-DSM 699 95
20) Iscurrega 695 92
= M2000-5 695 95
22) Estwald 687 93
= Kalmake 687 90
= Makarias 687 90
25) Anderis 684 89
= Costaz 684 87
27) noikeee 683 87

Lots of players started missing points this round, fun times ahead!

The entries


The Drivers' list

Driver Expect Surprise Beat
% % #
Verg 98,0 44,8 14
diRe 97,7 55,7 14
Hami 55,8 37,7 0
Rosb 53,4 37,3 0
Vett 52,4 47,0 0
Ricc 50,5 25,9 2
Räik 48,2 31,9 0
Suti 46,0 26,6 0
Alon 40,3 34,0 0
Webb 39,9 28,4 0
Mass 36,4 23,2 0
Gros 22,7 15,7 0
Butt 13,7 10,0 0
Pere 9,8 5,9 0
Hülk 8,4 5,9 0

JEV and di Resta both fall just short of 100% expectation fulfillment, looking to break the barrier asap.

EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2012 this is 28.


Guesses on P1-P5:

Vettel Alonso Hamilton Webber Rosberg
* Potential 432 * Potential 396 * Potential 377 * Potential 369 * Potential 357
* Forecast 358 skylark68 281 * Forecast 209 Barty 242 * Forecast 155
Anderis 280 Bleu 275 scheivlak 203 Anderis 225 scheivlak 152
Makarias 276 August 262 August 181 Costaz 200 an1res 140
kismet 274 * Forecast 261 Grayson 165 kismet 200 AcuraF1 139
Bleu 272 KWSN-DSM 260 Apex 160 Fastcake 198 KWSN-DSM 138
noikeee 272 Iscurrega 254 KWSN-DSM 159 * Forecast 187 Kalmake 130
Apex 270 M2000-5 251 Makarias 158 DutchQuicksilver181 Grayson 125
August 267 an1res 250 Fastcake 157 an1res 180 DutchQuicksilver124
wattoroos 263 Costaz 250 DutchQuicksilver156 Apex 180 Makarias 118
Iscurrega 260 kismet 250 noikeee 152 Estwald 180 Fastcake 117
scheivlak 260 Kalmake 249 mark f1 150 mark f1 180 Estwald 115
KWSN-DSM 259 AcuraF1 245 AcuraF1 145 Wlleiotl 180 Fisichella_2001 112
Costaz 254 Anderis 245 Fisichella_2001 138 Fisichella_2001 175 Brawn BGP 001 111
Fisichella_2001 252 Wlleiotl 240 wattoroos 138 Bleu 173 noikeee 105
Wander 251 DutchQuicksilver236 Wander 136 Kalmake 173 Wander 105
mark f1 250 noikeee 236 Brawn BGP 001 133 skylark68 169 skylark68 104
skylark68 250 scheivlak 235 Bleu 129 AcuraF1 168 Anderis 100
Wlleiotl 250 Estwald 230 Iscurrega 128 Wander 162 Apex 100
DutchQuicksilver247 mark f1 230 Estwald 124 KWSN-DSM 160 mark f1 100
Fastcake 247 Fisichella_2001 229 Costaz 122 Iscurrega 158 Wlleiotl 100
Barty 241 Fastcake 227 skylark68 120 Makarias 158 Iscurrega 94
Kalmake 239 Makarias 227 Wlleiotl 120 wattoroos 158 August 88
M2000-5 236 wattoroos 223 kismet 118 Grayson 155 wattoroos 88
Estwald 235 Wander 222 Kalmake 115 noikeee 153 Bleu 79
AcuraF1 230 Apex 220 an1res 110 M2000-5 152 M2000-5 78
Grayson 230 Grayson 210 Anderis 105 scheivlak 145 Barty 77
an1res 225 Brawn BGP 001 207 Barty 105 Brawn BGP 001 144 Costaz 77
Brawn BGP 001 211 Barty 192 M2000-5 101 August 116 kismet 67
* Current 132 * Current 96 * Current 77 * Current 69 * Current 57

At the moment scheivlak's Mercedes predictions look fantastically good.

Guesses on P6-P10:

Vergne Di Resta Massa Räikkönen Sutil
* Potential 313 * Potential 334 * Potential 349 * Potential 388 * Potential 317
* Forecast 35 * Forecast 92 an1res 210 M2000-5 275 wattoroos 63
M2000-5 28 Wlleiotl 60 M2000-5 199 Iscurrega 251 Wlleiotl 60
mark f1 25 Barty 55 Kalmake 192 noikeee 242 Barty 55
Bleu 23 wattoroos 53 kismet 175 * Forecast 239 kismet 51
KWSN-DSM 23 Brawn BGP 001 51 Anderis 170 Barty 222 Grayson 50
an1res 20 Estwald 50 Estwald 155 Costaz 221 * Forecast 46
Barty 20 Grayson 45 noikeee 150 Wander 196 Estwald 45
AcuraF1 18 kismet 44 skylark68 144 Anderis 188 August 44
skylark68 16 Apex 40 Bleu 140 Estwald 185 DutchQuicksilver 42
Apex 15 Fastcake 40 Makarias 139 Bleu 183 Apex 40
Fisichella_2001 15 Fisichella_2001 39 DutchQuicksilver135 Kalmake 183 AcuraF1 39
Grayson 15 skylark68 39 Wander 134 AcuraF1 180 Fastcake 39
scheivlak 15 Wander 39 * Forecast 133 Apex 180 Bleu 36
DutchQuicksilver 14 mark f1 35 wattoroos 133 Wlleiotl 180 Fisichella_2001 36
* Current 13 * Current 34 Costaz 132 August 179 mark f1 35
Brawn BGP 001 11 AcuraF1 33 Fisichella_2001 130 skylark68 176 skylark68 35
kismet 11 scheivlak 32 Iscurrega 130 an1res 174 scheivlak 34
August 10 DutchQuicksilver 31 mark f1 130 mark f1 170 Wander 34
Iscurrega 10 an1res 30 AcuraF1 121 DutchQuicksilver167 Brawn BGP 001 33
Wander 10 August 29 Apex 120 Makarias 166 an1res 30
Fastcake 9 Bleu 28 Grayson 120 Fisichella_2001 165 Iscurrega 27
Wlleiotl 9 KWSN-DSM 26 KWSN-DSM 115 scheivlak 163 Costaz 26
Kalmake 8 Iscurrega 25 Brawn BGP 001 111 wattoroos 163 Kalmake 26
Makarias 8 M2000-5 22 scheivlak 110 Grayson 160 KWSN-DSM 25
wattoroos 8 Costaz 21 Wlleiotl 100 KWSN-DSM 158 Makarias 25
Anderis 7 Kalmake 19 August 91 kismet 147 M2000-5 24
Costaz 5 Makarias 19 Fastcake 91 Fastcake 128 noikeee 22
noikeee 5 noikeee 18 Barty 60 Brawn BGP 001 123 Anderis 21
Estwald 0 Anderis 17 * Current 49 * Current 88 * Current 17

JEV and di Resta are looking good for 100% surprises at the moment. Kimi's last two races have hurt his forecast.

The PTPC forecast

Name Forecast +/-
scheivlak 1545,6 -20,9
noikeee 1533,4 -43,4
Apex 1528,6 -33,9
DutchQuicksilver 1526,6 -32,3
KWSN-DSM 1526,6 -13,8
Iscurrega 1518,4 -35,9
AcuraF1 1516,6 -28,6
Bleu 1515,1 -10,7
mark f1 1508,6 -24,8
skylark68 1497,1 -26,5
an1res 1495,6 -34,1
Fisichella_2001 1494,6 -30,8
Costaz 1484,9 -21,0
Estwald 1481,6 -40,3
Makarias 1481,6 -36,8
Wander 1481,6 -31,8
Wlleiotl 1479,7 -33,0
Anderis 1477,9 -33,5
kismet 1477,0 -35,0
Kalmake 1476,6 -38,3
Grayson 1470,7 -34,6
M2000-5 1467,4 -60,7
wattoroos 1465,7 -35,3
August 1457,6 - 5,4
Fastcake 1437,9 -13,6
Barty 1402,0 -24,3
Brawn BGP 001 1335,6 -30,8

Not a good round for the forecasts. The top duo swap positions and plenty of others also look to be potential winners.

Old numbers
A look at the predictions for the Toro Rosso (nee Minardi) team through the years:

Year WCC guess guess WCC WCC WCC/guess
AD Points pts % pts % %
2000 442 0.7 0.2 0 0 0
2001 442 0.1 0.0 0 0 0
2002 442 0.3 0.1 2 0.5 574.6
2003 624 4.5 0.7 0 0 0
2004 702 0.8 0.1 1 0.1 126.3
2005 741 1.1 0.1 7 0.9 648.5
2006 702 2.5 0.4 1 0.1 40.2
2007 663 3.5 0.5 8 1.2 231.9
2008 702 12.9 1.8 39 5.6 302.7
2009 731 11.3 1.5 8 1.1 70.9
2010 1919 38.8 2.0 13 0.7 33.5
2011 1919 59.1 3.1 41 2.1 69.4
2012 2020 43.6 2.2 26 1.3 59.6

*The franchise has a 5/13 ratio for beating our expectations far.
*Scoring a single point was a great achievement for the team back in the day.
*The infamous US GP makes 2005 look particularly good in hindsight.
*The 2008 season with Vettel's win is the last one where expectations have been beaten. At least nowadays there are expectations!
Notes:
-Due to preseason regulation unclarity, in 2009 this game used a 12-9-7-5-4-3-2-1 scoring system for each race, which wasn't actually used in F1.
-The "guess pts" column values are based on guesses on the preseason nominated drivers of the team, whereas the WCC outcome is from all drivers scoring for the team.