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Place The Points Competition 2013 after Britain


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#1 Makarias

Makarias
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  • Joined: December 98

Posted 02 July 2013 - 21:20

The standings after Britain:
Pos Name Tot Latest
1) Apex 808 101
= Fisichella_2001 808 101
= Grayson 808 101
4) mark f1 807 100
= skylark68 807 100
6) Brawn BGP 001 806 101
7) AcuraF1 805 99
8) Fastcake 804 101
= scheivlak 804 99
10) Barty 803 96
= DutchQuicksilver 803 99
= Wander 803 99
= Wlleiotl 803 100
14) an1res 802 99
15) wattoroos 800 98
16) August 798 99
= KWSN-DSM 798 99
18) Bleu 797 96
19) Iscurrega 792 97
20) kismet 791 86
21) M2000-5 790 95
22) Kalmake 786 99
23) Estwald 784 97
= Makarias 784 97
25) noikeee 781 98
26) Anderis 780 96
27) Costaz 774 90
Just three perfect scores left now...

The entries


The Drivers' list
Driver Expect Surprise Beat
% % #
diRe 103,4 59,0 15
Verg 98,0 44,8 14
Ricc 79,4 40,7 9
Rosb 76,8 53,6 5
Hami 64,5 43,6 0
Suti 62,3 35,9 2
Räik 53,7 35,5 0
Vett 52,4 47,0 0
Webb 50,4 35,8 0
Alon 46,6 39,4 0
Mass 42,3 27,0 0
Gros 22,7 15,7 0
Butt 13,7 10,0 0
Hülk 10,1 7,1 0
Pere 9,8 5,9 0
Paul di Resta is the first driver in 2013 to break his 100% expectation mark! Congratulations!

EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2012 this is 28.


Guesses on P1-P5:
Rosberg Webber Alonso Hamilton Räikkönen
* Potential 357 * Potential 362 * Potential 386 * Potential 364 * Potential 373
* Forecast 195 Barty 242 skylark68 281 * Forecast 211 M2000-5 275
scheivlak 152 Anderis 225 Bleu 275 scheivlak 203 Iscurrega 251
an1res 140 * Forecast 207 * Forecast 264 August 181 noikeee 242
AcuraF1 139 Costaz 200 August 262 Grayson 165 * Forecast 233
KWSN-DSM 138 kismet 200 KWSN-DSM 260 Apex 160 Barty 222
Kalmake 130 Fastcake 198 Iscurrega 254 KWSN-DSM 159 Costaz 221
Grayson 125 DutchQuicksilver181 M2000-5 251 Makarias 158 Wander 196
DutchQuicksilver124 an1res 180 an1res 250 Fastcake 157 Anderis 188
Makarias 118 Apex 180 Costaz 250 DutchQuicksilver156 Estwald 185
Fastcake 117 Estwald 180 kismet 250 noikeee 152 Bleu 183
Estwald 115 mark f1 180 Kalmake 249 mark f1 150 Kalmake 183
Fisichella_2001 112 Wlleiotl 180 AcuraF1 245 AcuraF1 145 AcuraF1 180
Brawn BGP 001 111 Fisichella_2001 175 Anderis 245 Fisichella_2001 138 Apex 180
noikeee 105 Bleu 173 Wlleiotl 240 wattoroos 138 Wlleiotl 180
Wander 105 Kalmake 173 DutchQuicksilver236 Wander 136 August 179
skylark68 104 skylark68 169 noikeee 236 Brawn BGP 001 133 skylark68 176
Anderis 100 AcuraF1 168 scheivlak 235 Bleu 129 an1res 174
Apex 100 Wander 162 Estwald 230 Iscurrega 128 mark f1 170
mark f1 100 KWSN-DSM 160 mark f1 230 Estwald 124 DutchQuicksilver167
Wlleiotl 100 Iscurrega 158 Fisichella_2001 229 Costaz 122 Makarias 166
Iscurrega 94 Makarias 158 Fastcake 227 skylark68 120 Fisichella_2001 165
August 88 wattoroos 158 Makarias 227 Wlleiotl 120 scheivlak 163
wattoroos 88 Grayson 155 wattoroos 223 kismet 118 wattoroos 163
* Current 82 noikeee 153 Wander 222 Kalmake 115 Grayson 160
Bleu 79 M2000-5 152 Apex 220 an1res 110 KWSN-DSM 158
M2000-5 78 scheivlak 145 Grayson 210 Anderis 105 kismet 147
Barty 77 Brawn BGP 001 144 Brawn BGP 001 207 Barty 105 Fastcake 128
Costaz 77 August 116 Barty 192 M2000-5 101 Brawn BGP 001 123
kismet 67 * Current 87 * Current 111 * Current 89 * Current 98
Frontrunner fun is starting now! Rosberg beat a chunk of guesses and it looks like he's going to make it past every one of them in the end, just like Hamilton seems likely to do. Kimi's forecast has suffered quite a bit over the last few races, otoh...

Guesses on P6-P10:
Massa Sutil Ricciardo Di Resta Hülkenberg
* Potential 332 * Potential 298 * Potential 286 * Potential 311 * Potential 281
an1res 210 wattoroos 63 * Forecast 26 * Forecast 86 Bleu 84
M2000-5 199 Wlleiotl 60 M2000-5 26 Wlleiotl 60 Wlleiotl 80
Kalmake 192 Barty 55 mark f1 25 Barty 55 wattoroos 78
kismet 175 * Forecast 55 Apex 24 wattoroos 53 Estwald 70
Anderis 170 kismet 51 KWSN-DSM 24 Brawn BGP 001 51 KWSN-DSM 69
Estwald 155 Grayson 50 an1res 20 Estwald 50 Makarias 69
noikeee 150 Estwald 45 Fisichella_2001 19 Grayson 45 Wander 67
skylark68 144 August 44 Kalmake 17 kismet 44 Brawn BGP 001 66
Bleu 140 DutchQuicksilver 42 Brawn BGP 001 16 Apex 40 AcuraF1 65
Makarias 139 Apex 40 August 15 Fastcake 40 Apex 65
DutchQuicksilver135 AcuraF1 39 Grayson 15 Fisichella_2001 39 Grayson 65
* Forecast 135 Fastcake 39 kismet 15 skylark68 39 skylark68 63
Wander 134 Bleu 36 AcuraF1 14 Wander 39 scheivlak 62
wattoroos 133 Fisichella_2001 36 Bleu 14 * Current 36 August 60
Costaz 132 mark f1 35 noikeee 14 mark f1 35 mark f1 60
Fisichella_2001 130 skylark68 35 Barty 12 AcuraF1 33 M2000-5 57
Iscurrega 130 scheivlak 34 scheivlak 12 scheivlak 32 Fisichella_2001 56
mark f1 130 Wander 34 DutchQuicksilver 11 DutchQuicksilver 31 Barty 55
AcuraF1 121 Brawn BGP 001 33 Fastcake 11 an1res 30 Fastcake 54
Apex 120 an1res 30 * Current 11 August 29 Anderis 50
Grayson 120 Iscurrega 27 Anderis 10 Bleu 28 Iscurrega 50
KWSN-DSM 115 Costaz 26 skylark68 10 KWSN-DSM 26 noikeee 50
Brawn BGP 001 111 Kalmake 26 Wlleiotl 10 Iscurrega 25 DutchQuicksilver 49
scheivlak 110 KWSN-DSM 25 Iscurrega 9 M2000-5 22 kismet 49
Wlleiotl 100 Makarias 25 Makarias 9 Costaz 21 Kalmake 45
August 91 M2000-5 24 Wander 9 Kalmake 19 Costaz 43
Fastcake 91 * Current 23 wattoroos 8 Makarias 19 an1res 30
Barty 60 noikeee 22 Costaz 5 noikeee 18 * Forecast 14
* Current 57 Anderis 21 Estwald 0 Anderis 17 * Current 6
Sutil opens up his beaten guesses account and Massa will soon hurt Barty. Hülkenberg's season is turning out a huge disappointment due to the uncompetitive Sauber.

The PTPC forecast
Name Forecast +/-
scheivlak 1524,9 -20,7
Apex 1512,9 -15,7
KWSN-DSM 1510,9 -15,7
noikeee 1509,0 -24,4
DutchQuicksilver 1507,9 -18,7
Bleu 1499,9 -15,3
AcuraF1 1495,9 -20,7
mark f1 1493,9 -14,7
Iscurrega 1491,6 -26,8
skylark68 1481,9 -15,3
Anderis 1478,9 1,0
an1res 1478,3 -17,3
Costaz 1476,9 -8,0
kismet 1476,3 -0,8
Fisichella_2001 1473,9 -20,7
Wlleiotl 1467,5 -12,2
Estwald 1463,3 -18,3
Makarias 1463,3 -18,3
Wander 1461,9 -19,7
Kalmake 1458,3 -18,3
Grayson 1453,9 -16,8
wattoroos 1453,5 -12,2
M2000-5 1450,0 -17,4
August 1445,9 -11,7
Fastcake 1427,9 -10,0
Barty 1409,1 7,1
Brawn BGP 001 1314,9 -20,7
Forecasts generally keep dropping, seems to be because the McLarens and Grosjean keep up a low points scoring rate lately.

Old numbers
A look at the predictions for the McLaren team through the years:
Year WCC guess guess WCC WCC WCC/guess
AD Points pts % pts % %
2000 442 126.4 28.6 162 36.7 128.2
2001 442 137.8 31.2 102 23.1 74.0
2002 442 103.8 23.5 65 14.7 62.6
2003 624 130.0 20.8 142 22.8 109.2
2004 702 138.0 19.7 69 9.8 50.0
2005 741 165.2 22.3 182 24.6 110.1
2006 702 146.4 20.8 110 15.7 75.2
2007 663 139.5 21.0 218 32.9 156.2
2008 702 176.5 25.1 151 21.5 85.5
2009 731 89.1 12.2 79 10.8 88.6
2010 1919 415.8 21.7 454 23.7 109.2
2011 1919 310.8 16.2 497 25.9 159.9
2012 2020 549.3 27.2 378 18.7 68.8
*The franchise has a 6/13 ratio for beating our expectations so far.
*Always a frontrunning team, expectations have been consistently in the higher regions; 2009 being a low point in preseason expectations and 2001 a high point.
*2000 and 2007 high points in terms of points scoring, disregarding that 2007 WCC exclusion.
*2004 was a low point with plenty of woes, but even in such a season this kind of top team is bound to score several points, unlike backmarkers having a dud season.
Notes:
-Due to preseason regulation unclarity, in 2009 this game used a 12-9-7-5-4-3-2-1 scoring system for each race, which wasn't actually used in F1.
-The "guess pts" column values are based on guesses on the preseason nominated drivers of the team, whereas the WCC outcome is from all drivers scoring for the team.